Hawkeye Bean Counter

1 wouldn't have made a difference. I said in order to remake the bullpen into a strength of reliable relievers, it would have been costly. A single reliever would not have moved the needle and actually supports the Twins strategy of standing pat. None of the relievers you named look like a pitcher that could carry a team in the playoffs. Right now we have 1 in Duran, if we can avoid the soft contact hits and walks - he is affectively unbeatable. I don't have to admit to anything 😄. My stance was this was a good enough strategy to get to the playoffs and give you a chip and chair situation and allow the team to catch lightning in a bottle. Now if we tank the remainder of the season yes I will own up. That would be an epic collapse at this point. For me the long term prognosis of the Twins is more interesting than this team which is why i think trading prospects for a semi flawed team this year or last year were ill advised. I think we have a pretty big window opening here in the next year or two where the Twins could be a top tier organization. This would be elevated if Correa can regain his prior form. However with Lee, Lewis, Martin, Jenkins, and Julien you have the potential of a very strong core of batters with some contact and power. There are enough other depth batters in the organization to fill in with upside in Kiriloff, Wallner and Larnach and Miranda let alone all the over performers in AA and AAA. We also look like we will get an additional draft pick from Sonny Gray as well, making that trade very favorable for the Twins. Now we just need to continue to add to the pitching side, and I hope sooner or later they address the bullpen in the offseason.

The relievers have had varying levels of success. I am ok with not giving up prospects in AAA, AA or even a lower level player. What reliever would have made a drastic change in the W/L of this team? There isn't 1 and even if you did change out 1 reliever we are only affecting 2-3 losses to wins. Those won't result in any change in getting to the playoffs and may or may not affect success in the playoffs. FYI Stewart has been pitching going to rehab assignment shortly. I am not saying this is a perfect strategy. However for the costs associated with trades, the standing pat strategy and trying to put some pitchers in relievers roles does appear to be getting better talent. Pagan has actually done very well, however if he can't pitch strikes he becomes ineffective very quick. You can disagree, But in order to have a good bullpen we are talking about sending out 8-10 prospects to achieve a good to elite bullpen with proven bullpen arms. No offense, I consider that idiocy. No one would suggest building a bullpen of the names you suggested above at the trade deadline with many of those pitchers in the mid 4 ERA before the deadline. As to many of your relievers their stats were not great before the trades. We can all look at things after the fact and say hey that trade was a good one - while we just as easily could have had a Lopez situation from last year.

I am more optimistic about the long term projections of the organization. I am stating they have a 4-5% chance of doing some damage in the Playoffs. That isn't exactly going out on a limb 😁.

1. Not at all, the hyperbole was that the Twins would not make the post season due to the poor management. My stance was this was actually a fairly strong constructed teams that needed the bats to improve. 2. I said balanced team not pitching staff. The bats are beginning to drastically improve. 3. Bullpens are important and here is the potential Bullpen we will bring into the playoffs. Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Funderburk, Stewart, Varland, Pagan, and 2 of Maeda, Paddack, Alcala and Winder and Keuchel. That is a deep bullpen, and some talented arms. My concern is some of those pitchers may not be well tested going into the first series. The theory is we just have a crap bullpen. The reality is we have some injuries to the bullpen, we have not focused on the bullpen and the front office's plan is to supplement the bullpen with starter arms. I am not sure it will work or not but can acknowledge that it is a decent plan and could work.

I can fully agree with this, we just don't know what that low bar would cost and if any of those low bar options were available.

This thread was meant to show a couple things. #1 the massive overaction of adding a singular player or two at a trade deadline is not going to drastically move the needle and could decrease it. FYI I am fairly certain Floro has been one of our worst bullpen arms at a 6.5 ERA. It is also to show this front office is doing a pretty decent job at consistently trying to put a good product on the field for us. No the bullpen will not be perfect, but the bullpen we will put out in the postseason will have a good collection of arms. Those thread had massive hyperbole. What has occurred is the minors continue to get stronger with some high level prospects progressing very well and the big league team, at least holding serve and is going to give us a shot in the postseason. Lastly, I love the Lopez trade and extension. Overall that may end up being the best move this front office has made other than trading for Ryan.

In fairness you haven't been a believer of this front office for a while. The issue is what would have the cost been. Standing pat is going to achieve a couple things : 1. Get to the post season - check 2. Have a fairly balanced team - check 3. You have the pitching horses to give you a chance - check As to the relievers - yes give me Varland, Jax, Duran, Funderburk and Thielbar. Throw in Pagan and then 1,2 or 3 of the other options if they look like could help out of Paddack, Maeda, Alcala, Stewart. That becomes a very deep and solid bullpen very quick. They had a rough stretch for a while, but they are beginning to tighten it back up since Funderburk and Varland came up. I am fine with getting rid of Floro, I don't see much there.

I posted the following in the standing pat thread. The majority of what I stated was spot on. The 2 biggest things I mentioned in this post and another is that the Pablo Lopez trade will look better and better over time. That we effectively got a low #1 starter for Arraez and was able to extend him and a reasonable salary was an excellent deal. The other is the 2023 draft appeared to be a grand slam and would drastically boost the minors. As the the big league team, the bats are starting to wake up. It is being led by Polanco and Lewis as right handed bats and the left side continues to be solid. The relief corps looks like they will be getting some potential depth option as well including Varland who was already called up. Overall this will be the most talented team we have going into the playoffs since the early to mid 2000 teams. Strong pitching, Good closer, creating a talented bullpen and starting to get a pretty good batting lineup. Yes we could have found a better bat than Luplow or another reliever. However the internal moves are as good or better and are not costing anything. I would say as of now are chances are in the 4-5% range to either get to the WS and or win the WS. Honestly I think thats pretty good. Right now I think Houston has the best shot in the AL and I am starting to think we may be close to the #2 to #3 option. The Orioles have a young team with an injury to closer and poor starting pitching staff. Tampa has had injuries and removal of their best player. Really the AL is wide open. I honestly think the bullpen will be pretty strong the remainder of the year. Thielbar, Jax and Duran can do the majority of the workload, Pagan and Floro can do your medium to low leverage. Add in I do think we will be adding Keuchel. Whether Keuchel is a bullpen arm, gives days rest off for starting pitchers or allows Maeda to come to the pen, it adds another arm to the pitching staff. Some stated we should have traded Maeda and or Gray, and I even brought this up as well. However with the possibility on both (much higher on Gray) the Twins can offer qualifying offers that get a 1st or 2nd round draft pick back if they reject the offer. I think both will sign elsewhere and we will get a end of 1st for Sonny and a 2nd round draft pick for Maeda. You have to consider that value vs anything you would have received plus knowing they can be major cogs to a potential run. The theme on this board is this is a flawed team. I disagree, I think this is the best constructed overall team in over a decade that is a tad light on right handed batting but not bad. If Polanco, Correa, and Buxton turn it on, that fixes a lot of our right handed woes. We just need the bats to wake up. Correa has slowly been improving and Buxton looks like may be turning a corner. I think as a team and the bats specifically we have significantly underperformed so far this season but we have the bats to compete. This is by far the strongest starting pitching staff we have had, and with Jax and Duran (even going through a bit of yips) you still have a strong end of the bullpen. That is a team if it comes together can win the WS but we do need the bats to improve. This is something I have also said for a while but I will continue to say. The Pablo Lopez for Arraez deal is going to be very good for the Twins. I suspect by the end of the year on a WAR basis Lopez will be within 1 point for this year. Also add in the fact with the extension which it didn't sound like Arraez wanted to do you now get 2 extra years of Lopez because he was willing to sign a team friendly extension. Losing Arraez hurts, but for the Twins not irreplaceable, in actuality Julien is a very similar type of player (gets there with more walks than hits) but more power. Infield bats we have a plethora of and we can continue to fill in any holes that pop up on the infield from internal candidates for the foreseeable future. I am fine with standing pat, would have been fine if we added a bullpen arm at the deadline or even had traded a starting pitcher and flipped some prospects for a bat, however, this is still a team that has a chance. How high, maybe 2-4%, but it is a chance that things can click. Ultimately you need the starting pitching and this is the first year we can all say we have enough quality starting pitching going into any playoff series.

1 year of Alonso will not take a huge prospect load. He is a first baseman with 1 year left. Depending on front offices opinion of Raya or SWR, if it could net us an additional 1st round pick I would definitely consider it. I am fine with the Twins taking multiple shots at the end of the first rounds on elite pitchers and then build depth in the mid rounds.

And he made more than the extension offers 150 million even with all the drama and reduced salary in the 3 separate contract negotiations.

Well if they traded Alonso, we could be set up for a higher comp pick than Mets. On that along this makes some sense.

Its been stated marlins and red both had multiple claims out. Doubt any of the 3 were getting to the Twins.

doesn't solve the issue of a team tanking though

Its more difficult than just saying they need to be changed. My opinion is lower level teams should continue to have first dibs. Players at the bottom should be allowed to improve as they are the worst. So they pick up one mediocre vet and they go to the end of the line, while a really good player comes up - no I think that is against what this is trying to do. A team shouldn't wait on the sidelines waiting for a team to go on an implosion like the angels did. How do you fix it. Your team salary for the year is locked in at the trade deadline. It would stop this specific issue. I am not sure what else you can do other than limit the number of drops in a week maybe.

I think its difficult to change the rules. Yes you can switch to a waiver claim like fantasy, however, those lower teams need as much help as anyone. I guess the concern is, why didn't any of the poor teams try to get better and pick these players up? Its because they don't want to compete for this year.

Ummm you have a lot higher expectations of GM's and owners than I do. I think they may be even more petty and and vindictive than children. I think ultimately though yes Cleveland is trying to thread a needle. Plus if they perform well, they can make up the money in ticket sales if they gain some momentum. Pretty cheap way to try to compete the rest of the way.

There is just as much possibility that Marlins or Reds would have picked up those players as well. I think the Reds were the ones that were likely left in the dust by the Guardians moves.

Guardians want to compete and continue to build for the future. They received some decent prospects and now have a pretty decent pitching staff to try to make a run.

What a header : certainly know how to bring out the negative vibes. I wasn't sure any of the players would make it to the Twins and this clearly underscored that. I am slightly surprised Cleveland was aggressive, I thought they would be throwing in the towel, but apparently not. I can't see this as negative on anything the Twins could have done in this situation.

Ted states Twins placed at least 3 waiver claims. https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/report_twins_will_be_aggressive_on_waiver_wire_thursday/s1_17017_39197210

Giolito 6'6" and elite with the white sox makes him a want of almost any team. He can be a depth pitcher that has potential 1,2 or 3 type stuff. Clevinger is the same but expensive. You take either Lopez or Moore. How many of those 4 do the Twins make claims on. Yes I would love Lopez and Moore but if those are taken would it be better to take Clevinger and Giolito and try to have piggy back games even in the playoff with as many strong pitchers as possible.

Well sounds like the Twins are not very concerned about the marlins but are about the Reds claiming 1 to 2 players. That is interesting. That means there is a better chance 1 of the 2 relievers gets to the Twins. It would be a pipe dream if both made it to the twins (in reality that the Twins have any shot at these types of players as a waiver claim is a pipe dream) in either case I am more optimistic now the Twins will get 1 of the 2 relievers. The management has also been given the go ahead to add salary so we know the Twins are making claims just on who now is the question.

The claims should have been processed already now just waiting for them to come out. Rumors were Marlins were looking at 1 or both relievers. Reds had been connected to Giolito before so that would make sense. The hope would be one of the 2 relievers gets to Minnesota, in reality I just don't see that happening. Make an improvement over Luplow and move on most likely.

You make the claims you have to make the corresponding move. Too me the trickiest part is the outfielders. You should just pick 1 because you don't want to end with 2 of them. As to the 40 man, there is ample maneuverability from the IL to just removing one of the underperforming players off the 40 man. As to the relievers if you think 2-3 are better than the bottom of your reliever corps you make the claims and see how the chips fall.

Does anyone think a memo from MLB has gone out to teams regarding this situation, stating if you are not playing for the playoffs please do not make claims on these players. If you are planning to pick a player up to later drop them, do not put in a waiver claim. I think this has prompted a large issue. The biggest being the fairness, you could have one team at the bottom, including the Twins who really don't have a legitimate shot at being a contender to significantly moving the needle, without giving up any draft or player capital. That is just nuts.