Hawkeye Bean Counter

Early on they went with a lot of college arms but since the start of the decade that has changed. 2020 - Raya 2021 - Petty (traded for Sonny Gray- 2 years 7.8 WAR of performance and Kyle Debarge as a comp pick) 2022- None (took Priellip as the high upside pick) 2023 - Soto and Questad 2024 - Dasan Hill In my opinion, the Twins have done incredibly well with their high school pitchers. The Petty trade was phenomenal. Even still Petty is a high upside pitcher (#8 in the Reds deep system). Soto has the highest ceiling, and showed dramatic improvement throughout the year. Soto is still primarily projection, but what he was showing at the end of the year was impressive. It all depends when they are willing to let Raya let it fly and go deeper into innings. Questad struggled in FCL, but they may have been working on things. he was really a lottery pick in the 5th round for 500k. Hill has as high as upside as anyone, 6'4" lanky frame, velocity jumped last year to mid 90's. Lots of spin but need some work and refinement on the secondary pitches.

We had very few arms in the FCL. That doesn't take away from Bohorquez. He showed right away he belonged stateside with his late season performance in A ball. The other thing is even though limited innings he got stronger throughout the year even with jumping to A ball. Here are his BA from June to Sept .195 .189 .152 .100 (1 start - 3 inninings) Now onto OBP .327 .311 .298 .182 Next is OPS .522 .663 .516 .382 Hopefully the Twins can unlock just a little more velocity, but his secondary pitches look legit already. He was basically an afterthought, only signing for 10k. If he can become something would be pretty remarkable.

This article is pretty solid. Showing that if he has a good season which is completely reasonable he could jump into our top 20 prospects. If velocity continues to tick up, and he gains more control, with that slider, you have a very effective starter. Really need to work on lengthening him out. Only 53 innings last year. A 2.2 ERA in A ball in 16 innings (extremely small sample size), ultimately show he belongs stateside to continue development.

We have done very well with improving the defensive metrics on catchers. I feel more comfortable that we get him up to average to above average, than him re discovery his above average hit tool and power.

This may be the deepest we have been this century. Yes the top end is depleted compared to last year, but the depth is absolutely absurd. If we had any bullpen in the lower levels, you could have all 4 levels in the minors competing at the top of their leagues because of the depth. In your 30 to 50 prospect rankings, you will have the majority of the 2023, and 2024 pitching prosects, if which I am fairly confident you will have 2-3 major leaguers based on historical averages with 1 high end pitcher. For example Tanner Hall had a rough year, maybe be around 45-50, if the control comes back (which he had for 4 years in college), with a little more velocity he is #2 type pitcher in the big leagues. I understand why he is so low, but even still, you have potential, and in a lot of cases its been the 2nd year where prospects have really taken off in the system. You will also have hitters that have a shot at the MLB McCusker, Rodriguez, Keirsey, Acuna.

Actually, his hit tool is better than anticipated. The fact he was able to more than hold his own at A ball as a 19 year old is pretty impressive. June was his best month by far then got injured. He came back struggled, then had a pretty good August, Sept was just 5 games, so even though poor numbers extremely small sample size. He was 2 years younger than the average player. Yes to remain this high on the rankings list, his hit tool will have to continue to improve, but with his speed and power and defense, He is almost the full package. That you got him in the same draft as Jenkins is absurd. That 2023 draft I have said has the potential to be an absolutely game changer draft for this organization. We can be upset what is occurring at the big league level right now, but there is some major reasons to still be optimistic about the future, and Winokur is a major part of the reason for that optimism. I expect a jump to high A and actually better performance than this year, as he adjusts to being a professional and continues to receive more instruction, and continue to develop into his massive frame. Assuming this occurs he will easily be a top 5 prospect by the end of the year.

Overall not a great return but still decent. Its not as if Polanco did well this year at all.

Culpepper is the most likely. He was a high draft pick and performed well, especially if continues to do well as goes up to higher levels. Priellip will be dinged by health concerns. Even still his stuff is very very good. Winokur and Dasan Hill have the highest ceilings. Winokur at the end of the season was really piling on the stats. You could have 2 elite outfielders at the same time, with Winokur and Jenkins. Hill is a lefty with a lot of projection - but effectively could be 6'5" Priellip. Extremely high spin, Velocity is in the 93 range, if that gets up to 96 to 97, You have an extremely dangerous weapon with likely great extension coming from a lefty.

A couple comments. 1. The Pohlads have already put out the feelers for anyone interested. Instead of the Angels or Washington, they have already gaged the interest. The Pohlads and Twins hold on to information as long as they can. Just look at contracts for Falvey and Baldelli. My guess is a reporter was going to break the story and this is pretty far along. 2. The change in TV revenue is showing it was a major implications for the budget, for profits, but also likely much more uncertainty and a lower price that the Pohlads can get in selling the team. They have a solid team and prospects though which is currently a valuable asset for someone wanting to purchase a team to be set to win right away with good long term prospects.

NM - error in the system, reposted previous message.

Its a bad situation. The person you feel bad for is Ross Dunn. He has had an up and down season, he just ruined that outing for him. As to Bender this event doesn't have to define him but this is not a good start to his career. The bat can play, between cape cod, Coastal Carolina and the first couple weeks, the bat is solid enough to be a catcher. There was always a question whether he could remain a catcher. If he wants to keep playing will likely have to go to the independent leagues. Or maybe another team will take a chance on him. Not sure I would have him play catcher to start out but I think you can gradually get to the point where you can trust him. Time generally heals all. I said during the draft last year the Twins should draft Keaton Anthony last year. He bet on college games and I believe even baseball games. Was it dumb, absolutely. Could he learn from it, I would sure hope so. Phillies signed him as a udfa and by all accounts did very well and got to AA. Just like Anthony, this was a very very bad move for Bender, but I do hope he gets another chance if he wants to keep playing - it just won't be with the Twins.

Not only is the organization producing a lot of bats that could help at the big league level, why Keirsay hasn't gotten a shot is beyond me, along with Eeles and Mccusker ect, but you have several players that have the potential to be all stars. E-rod is contraversal, but Winokur and Jenkins have some high end talent. Winokur is just missing a bit more hit tool, but the power is already there. For an organization that is heavy on infielders, developing a strong outfield, will be key to continue our success. Not all will pan out, but I have name 5 outfielders. At minimum 1 to 2 of those will likely pan out.

They have been willing to take a high school arm generally in the first 3 rounds, Questad is an anomoly in my mind. That he was willing to take 500k. But for him, it actually might work out ok. Need to see where he is next year, but this year was a little rough for him. As to the Twins they are taking 1 very high upside high school/college arm in most drafts. Here are the high school picks. 2017 2nd Landon Leach 3rd Blayne Enlow 2018 - none 2019 - none (Canterino 2nd) Ignore 2020 draft 2021 - 1st Petty 2022 - none (picked Priellip in second) 2023- CB Soto , 5th Questad 2024 - CB 2nd round Dasan Hill Other than 2018 they took a high end arm in the first 3 rounds. It has generally leaned towards more high school pitchers, but they will take a high end arm whether it is college or high school , in those early rounds.

Mike it is relative, he signed a 1.825 million contract. Yes taxes and yes he has expenses but can use some of the money for living expenses and can have it earn money as well. As to his track. I could see him in the big leagues in 2026 on an innings limitation if all goes well next year. Could start in AA, or continue in A+ ball and moved to AA mid year. Then starting in AAA in 2026. Innings at 110 to 120 next year. 140 to 150 in 2026.

I am not sure it was constant arm issues for Priellip, he had the tommy john and then the brace. 1 injury that took 2 surgeries to repair. Now if he is torqueing the arm too hard which continually tears down the elbow, that is one thing, which could be accurate, but making him a reliever now without even seeing if he can hold up to be an elite starter seems immensely short sited. Good relievers are so much easier to find and cheaper than good starters. The risk reward heavily favors continuing to develop him as a starter.

Priellip could be a #2 pitcher. The question has been whether is elbow can hold up, and to me it looks like it can. You gradually increase his work load and keep moving him up and gradually increase innings per an outing. Hopefully in a year or two lengthening him out more than they did with Raya.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-carlos-correa-begins-sprinting/#:~:text=Correa (heel) is sprinting on,due to right plantar fasciitis.

I am still ok with this. The Twins took a different approach of trying to get him back to 100% and giving him more time off with this specific injury which was a different injury than last year, as in a different foot. Could this become a recurring injury. Absolutely, however when Correa is playing healthy he is a top 25 ball player. He has a 3.3 War so far this year. We will see what he end at once he comes back. He has begun sprinting so likely not too far off of becoming active. I would be more concerned of health on the pitching front than the hitting front. Had he been healthy this year he would have been a 5 WAR player.

Bean again, your issue primarily appears to be with ownership, their decision with comcast and their decision to cut the payroll. Again I have told you before and in this post if you want to have frustration with ownership be my guest. Secondly we are all fans. Attacking one's fandom appears to be a pointless attack. You having season tickets has no extra bearing on the situation. I live 5 hours a way in state that has blackouts, in some aspects that I continue to be a fan despite the hurdles is a feat in itself. Whether making mini vacations, watching them in Kansas City, or this year I took my son to a Saints game in Des Moines, and watched Lee, Wallner, Dobnak and Julien; we continue to be active in supporting the Twins. Your purchase of tickets does not validate your opinion over anyone else's, it is a sunk cost. Lastly, you may have had some positive posts in threads I have not seen. The threads I have seen there has been an overly negative tone. Earlier this year, I told you I thought the front office was a top 5 team in drafting. I was laughed at a bit in the thread, but I also stated, give this a couple months and they will likely be viewed much much better. At this point, they have a strong farm system, with what currently appears to be a decent pitching pipe line(I can understand you wanting to see it come to fruition), and several young players in the organization. That is effectively what this thread is about. So you can have a dissenting opinion, but if the opinion is to trash players that are viewed favorably in baseball circles and on this website, yes I think you will see several that are questioning your dissenting opinion and its validity. Me and Chpettit have had some fun threads in the past, where we both went a little too hard. Neither one of us was going to change the others opinion. Here I do not expect to change your opinion, but I do hope you stop invalidating the opinions of others based on whether they can or cannot purchase tickets. Take care.

You can't throw at the velocity he is with just aiming a ball. Having a control and pitching where you want it. Here is the issue. With emphasis on pitch zone for strikes, pitchers are going to be more honed on just throwing strikes. His stuff was good enough to miss a lot of bats in the lower levels. With the jumps he has made, the hitters are much better. Even still I have no doubt he can make some adjustments. Just look at the adjustments he has made this year so far. I still have very high expectations for him in the future.

Ive done 2 posts, but ive come to the conclusion, Bean really doesn't want to see anything positive with this organization, or team. I can understand frustration with ownership, I can even understand questioning decision making by the front office. However the quality of players in the organization from top to bottom is great. I really am optimistic, and hope at some point, ownership begins to open the purse strings again like they did a couple years a go. I really think he does want to win championships, so hopefully there is still a glimmer of hope. I am more concerned about possibly losing Falvey and Lavine at the end of this year.

I was going to give a pass but man . . . I really think you need some happy pills. Early this year you were complaining about the lack of pitching prospects, and now that players are truly performing you want rain on that parade. As to the overall depth, I don't care about age as much as how many years of control and where we have them. And ultimately you can trade or find RP, getting the SP is the costly factor. Right now - 2 more years of cost control for Lopez Ober and Ryan a couple more years of control 5 years + on SWR, Matthews and Festa Then you have all the other prospects. No offense, that is depth and control that very very few other teams have. That is the envy of probably 20-25 other organizations. I have a feeling the salary situation will work itself out and be similar to what we are working with now.

True, but you often can't have elite pitching without first having those stud prospects. The more eggs you have sooner or later 1 or 2 or more will hatch. Also on your analysis of the bats. You still have a good core of controllable decent bats. Royce Lewis being 25 is obviously your player with the highest ceiling. I still think between Lee, Miranda, Julien, Martin, Wallner, and Larnach you have enough talent to supplement Buxton, Correa. I have very little concern about our bats, and we have enough hitting prospects to continue to fill in holes for under performance or injury.

We have a current much better pitching situation top to bottom in the organization than we have had since the early to mid 2000's. As to Soto, yes small sample size, but you are showing a pitcher that can get his fastball up to 98 with up to 5 pitches and in his last start throwing 69% strikes. He has effectively dominated A ball the last 2 months. There is still things to work on, but he has a higher ceiling than Chase Petty. Whether as a trade chip or not he is another great asset to the organization. As to that 2023 I had stated several times, that draft has the potential to be a franchise altering draft. 1st Walker Jenkins (top 10 rated prospect) - has the ceiling of a HOF type player, but still wide variety of outcomes here Ca Soto (could be pushing top 100 lists, looks like a #1 to #2 type pitcher) 2nd round Keaschall - amazing production - in top 100 lists and looks like a player that could have all star potential. 3rd round Winokur - sky is the limit with this kid. Ceiling may be just slightly lower than Jenkins. Lots to work on still but looks very very good. The remainder of the draft you have had some decent performances. Of those I still think Hall has the best chance at becoming a legit prospect. Just needs to increase the velocity and tad more, and regain his command that he had in college. You have 9 other pitchers with several already in high A ball, that I wouldn't be surprised if a couple make it to the big leagues similar to the path of Ober, Festa, and Matthews. As to the organization, if we keep pumping out pitching prospects like we have this year, it will make life relatively easy for the organization. We still need to produce a number 1 type pitcher and you are starting to have some options. Soto, Priellip, and Hill on paper have the ceilings to potention to reach that level. Matthews may as well. He obviously has immense control, but will need to learn to pitch outside the zone more with better hitters. Say what you will about ownership, I will still say this front office is top 5 in drafting. As long as they can continue to keep that performance up, the organization should be in good shape.

I agree, I don't think you can look anymore where they were picked, rather how much was agreed to in the contract. The biggest thing with Julien was he was always going to be a harder sign, then he exploded in the CWS last few games (after the draft). This allowed him much more leverage, and when he feigned going back to college, the Twins upped the amount. In either case, neither were a 1st through 3rd round signee. In either case you cannot argue with the Twins strategies, find hitters early, and then come back with tons of pitching picks later in the draft. They are also going for 1 big swing, on the pitchers in the early rounds as well. As to this year, as you have stated, the most likely hitters to succeed would be Culpepper, Amick and Debarge, but there is some talent in the later rounds. More than anything they needed to round out the overall roster after picking so many pitchers last year. A ball needed a massive shot in the arm, and this draft has provided it.