Hawkeye Bean Counter
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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter
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So if he became an elite pitcher that wouldn't be awesome? The second part said it wasn't a far fetched idea, its not a baseline, but he has the ceiling that could achieve that. I don't know where he will end up. His stuff is ridiculous though, especially for a lefty.
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I personally never thought Balazovics stuff was good enough. A low 90's fastball, with 2 other hard thrown breaking pitches, that were all relatively in the zone is no where close to Priellips arsenal. So if we are going to look at limited data and do projection, At high A ball Balazovic had ERA of 2.84 with SO/9 of 11.8. That is very good. But he was also inducing a lot of weak contact at that level. As he rose up the levels, the weak contact became hard contact. Priellip, coming off of injuries and not pitching for several years, had a 3.26 ERA and had a SO/9 of 14.9. He went through 3 starts in a row, 9 innings 15 strikeouts to end the season. The biggest difference between the 2 even at this level, is Priellip has much more swing and miss off of his pitch arsenal. It is a SSS. I understand that, and he will have to prove it, and show he can remain healthy and that he can maintain his stuff as he moves up. With someone like Balazovic who was 20 they were projecting his stuff would get better as well, it never did. With Priellip, you don't have to project, the stuff is there. That is the difference between the 2 in my opinion.
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"it's impossible to truly grade his stuff." That is what I was responding too. The stuff as is there, you can grade an elite slider, you can grade a plus fastball, you can grade a + curve ball, and that he all throws it from the same tunnel, yes you know exactly the type of player that he can be. I said it will come down to consistency and health and ultimately execution. To me he will play (if healthy), the question will come down to what is his ceiling. A reliever, a back end arm, a mid rotation arm or a #1 or #2 arm. My point is that we know his stuff will play even at the highest levels, that isn't something difficult to judge, he just need to be healthy and continue to show it at the higher levels. I think we are on the same page its why I was confused.
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Linus so what did you disagree with my above post?
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He is their number 6 prospect and extremely high on him. Priellip talk starts at 1:06:00. Priellips stuff is the best total package we have in the minors in my opinion. If he is throwing 95-98 mph with his elite secondary pitches. They are saying as he is, a 50 FV, but they have him at 45 because of injuries. A healthy season where he continues to execute is what we need to see. He has not put together a full season output since high school. You know a 95-98 mph fastball, with a plus plus slider that is breaking on 2 planes, and a change up is elite. We don't need to see it against the top levels, he has already shown it at Alabama, he showed it last year. It will play. All that is needed is health and consistency. I am very optimistic on Priellip and have been for a while.
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Santana, Solano, and Cruz say hi.
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He had and 826 OPS in May. I am not expecting a renaissance to his 2021-2022 stats. I do think he could be a 1 to 2 WAR player if he is healthy. Maybe an outside chance the power pops, but that is far from baseline scenario. this is definitely a wait and see situation and I am very surprised that they are basically slotting him into the starting 1st base role (minimal platoon).
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He has never been fast but a right heel fracture doesn't help either.
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Kepler has a career 20+ WAR. What I am discussing is the expected stats vs actual. The difference most people call is luck, others say it is due to other circumstances or issues and not truly luck.
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How can you defend one signing but go after the others, or go after my previous post? All these signings are gamble on an expected performance. Thinking you can pull something out of a player others have been unable to. For as much consternation as Kepler got here, I think that is going to be the type of player France is here if he makes the team. It will be whether the hard barrels, can translate into hits. If so you could have a mini renaissance to his 2020-2021 levels. A 2-3 War could be possible. For 1 million its a reasonable gamble. its no more of gamble than Gallo. The question is whether it is redundant with Miranda and Julien. 1 more option to flash seems like a good option. Yes I wish they were willing to spend more but until we can get new owners that isn't going to change.
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I do think dodgers kicked in more, but that was the article I found. Ok, so yes we were both right, Dodgers kicked in another $2 million dollars. So that is how they got to $4 million, but that was including the 2 million that was intended for the 2025 buyout as well. In total Twins paid him $6 million is my guess.
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He is owed a $10 million salary in 2024 with a $2 million buyout of his $12 club option for 2025. The Rays are paying $4 million as part of the trade with the Dodgers-- $2 million in 2024 plus the $2 million buyout if Margot's option is declined -- so Margot is an $8 million player for the Twins. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dodgers-trade-manuel-margot-to-twins-just-months-after-acquisition-bring-back-enrique-hernandez/#:~:text=He is owed a %2410,million player for the Twins.&text=Margot is a career .
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Margot - $8 million Gallo - $11 million Bader - $4. million with a maximum $1.5 million buyout based on plate appearances France - $1 million Bader and France are no where near a Margot, Colome or Gallo situation. With all these bottom barrel signings you are hoping for that 25% chance or less of a breakout year - or a solid year on an aging player like Santana. We like to crap on the signings that don't work out but tend to forget the Santana, Solano, Nelson Cruz contracts really working out. France won't just be trotted out there consistently, you have Miranda and Julien that will be pushing him and may outplay him in spring ball. France hit the ball hard last year, but also had an uptick on his whiff percentage, if he can get just a little more lift and turn more ground outs into singles, and singles into doubles, he is back to the player he was in 20 and 21.
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France, gives another shot at finding something special at 1st base. For 1 million and Headrick, I think that is more than fair. This isn't a Gallo situation of giving a 11 million of money that the front office will feel tied too. France hit the ball very hard last year, but was unlucky, similar type player to Kepler, so with that in mind I am not surprised they took a chance on him. Yes there is no great 1st baseman on the team right now, but hopefully we can find 1 to play solid 1st base, and 1 to be a decent DH.
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Twins looking at back-up infielders...
Hawkeye Bean Counter replied to Twins_Fan_in_NJ's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The biggest question is whether these major league or minor league signings. -
So effectively this move and the extra $5 million came out at the same time, or very close together.
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If you have known about the move for a week, why is it just now getting announce, is there a secondary move or trade coming down that would affect the 40 man, or is this just 1 off move that took a while to process.
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There is 1 caveat, and it was another Orioles pitcher, Lopez, we tried to change his pitch mix, and whether confidence, mental, personal issues, he struggled mightily. It might be a situation where it was a small sample size for the 1st half of the year, and the fact he has never been able to re-find the consistency or performance. My only hope is we don't now try to trade Duran, Jax - trying to create and excess value situation. Thinking they found extreme value in Coloumbe, and trying to convert that value into either starting pitching or a hitter.
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For $2.5 million its a solid signing, and creates much more flexibility in the bullpen.
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Unless you trade one for 1 of the best pitchers in baseball- get 7.8 WAR plus a compensation pick in the 2024 draft. The Petty for Gray trade utilizing a high school pitcher created an extreme positive return for the organization.
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Mcdonalds server guy. Damn I am sure the Twins wish they had gone a different route with this pick. Tipping pitches to get the season over with . . . just crazy.
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I just saw this, I am not sure if you are serious or not. First you have to realize hitting on an Ober is incredibly slim. What is happening is we are having all kinds of pitchers popping up every year from the drafts. Varland, Funderburk, Winder, Sands, Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Culpepper and then of course Ober. That is a ton of prospects in the 5th round or later and only from the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 drafts. Of the prospects that make it to the league, several will flame out. For as good as Varland looked at times, it appears his stuff just isn't quite good enough as a starter. You have to realize it takes time to develop these guys. Ober is from 2017. Festa and Matthews, have the talent and flew through the system. We will see how they continue to develop.
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Early on they went with a lot of college arms but since the start of the decade that has changed. 2020 - Raya 2021 - Petty (traded for Sonny Gray- 2 years 7.8 WAR of performance and Kyle Debarge as a comp pick) 2022- None (took Priellip as the high upside pick) 2023 - Soto and Questad 2024 - Dasan Hill In my opinion, the Twins have done incredibly well with their high school pitchers. The Petty trade was phenomenal. Even still Petty is a high upside pitcher (#8 in the Reds deep system). Soto has the highest ceiling, and showed dramatic improvement throughout the year. Soto is still primarily projection, but what he was showing at the end of the year was impressive. It all depends when they are willing to let Raya let it fly and go deeper into innings. Questad struggled in FCL, but they may have been working on things. he was really a lottery pick in the 5th round for 500k. Hill has as high as upside as anyone, 6'4" lanky frame, velocity jumped last year to mid 90's. Lots of spin but need some work and refinement on the secondary pitches.
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We had very few arms in the FCL. That doesn't take away from Bohorquez. He showed right away he belonged stateside with his late season performance in A ball. The other thing is even though limited innings he got stronger throughout the year even with jumping to A ball. Here are his BA from June to Sept .195 .189 .152 .100 (1 start - 3 inninings) Now onto OBP .327 .311 .298 .182 Next is OPS .522 .663 .516 .382 Hopefully the Twins can unlock just a little more velocity, but his secondary pitches look legit already. He was basically an afterthought, only signing for 10k. If he can become something would be pretty remarkable.
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This article is pretty solid. Showing that if he has a good season which is completely reasonable he could jump into our top 20 prospects. If velocity continues to tick up, and he gains more control, with that slider, you have a very effective starter. Really need to work on lengthening him out. Only 53 innings last year. A 2.2 ERA in A ball in 16 innings (extremely small sample size), ultimately show he belongs stateside to continue development.
