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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Baseball is more about anticipation that foot speed, and I think you are understating Lee's speed. Lee will never be a speed demon. However he plays a solid short and 3rd base, and is still learning 2nd base. Its not his fault that the Twins hadn't played him much there and suddenly and a dearth of players for 2nd base. He is still getting a feel of how the ball comes on that side of the turf. My son can immediately know the ball path when he plays right field, he prefers 2nd base and RF and really has quick reactions. When put in LF, it is much more reactionary. Yes the ball can have more spin, but there is a significant difference in how quickly he can react. I still expect him to trend between a .280 to .300 hitter with solid pop.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Brooks Lee is the only one who could be an all star talent. Its hard to see right now, which is why I would not want to trade him. Surprisingly he has been a bit more of a free swinger than in college. He has untapped power and I do expect better defense as he continues to get better. I do think you would be selling low on Lee. The others, Wallner and Julien have a slimmer of hope. I don't see Miranda ever being good enough at the MLB level.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Wallner may have more upside, Lee is likely still considered young and transitioning to MLB. Julien Miranda and Wallner have all had significant amount of bats at the MLB level. There isn't a high probability either of the 3 have something click and really blossom.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    All 3 would be considered selling low. Ober for the most part other than this year has been as good or a better pitcher for the Twins than Ryan.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You look at these trades, or the only other sell trades - getting Lopez for Arraez, and dumping Donaldson. I have always felt the Twins organization has done very well when trying to sell assets and in a position of strength. My question is how deep will these trades cut. Do we trade any of the big 3 of Ryan, Duran or Jax. I honestly feel like you could sell Ryan high. I do think this is his best year, and he routinely struggles towards the end of the season (was his last start a precursor). If we were to trade Jax, Coloumbe, Castro and Bader that should give us a pretty good return of prospects to add to our current group. If someone wants to overpay for Ryan, let them and then we can try to find a pitcher in the offseason or go with our current depth.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    All picks are now signed. Now of course its not a draft where we have a Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins headlining it but its a very good draft, especially based on how the Twins spent their money. I still don't think Houston has near the bat Culpepper does, however if the bat is better than anticipated, he is a surefire SS and would be a heck of a pick. Young and Agbayani both signed at pretty close to slot, I wasn't surprised on Young but Agbayani only going 20k overslot was very surprising. I really thought he would go to college if he didn't get a bonus of over 500k. Both are very good lottery tickets. Young if he can achieve his potential has better athleticism than either his dad or uncle. Daniels, Sprock and Mccombs all look like solid bats. Robinson, eh but if the bat comes around maybe. Pitching - the studs - Quick, Ellwanger, Barr and Reitz. Barr got a higher bonus than Reitz, likely a pre agreed to contract and pick. All 4 of these have high upside and high volatility. All have questions on control. I have been wanting the Twins to swing for more of a #1 pitcher and all 4 of these picks give you that opportunity. Depth Pitching pick - Kolton Smith 200k, Fang 177k, Mitrovich, 172k, Stevens 172k, Merit Jones 150k, Matthew Dalquest 150k Hilker 125k, Moring 100k. I have always said you can tell how much the Twins like a prospect by how much they pay them. Historically at pick 11 and down, they may put up to slot on 3-4 picks and rarely go overslot. They did it 3 times in this draft. They drafted more pitchers at the money slot or higher than any other year. And they spent a lot more money towards the end of the draft that they have ever done. There were very few throw away picks as well with senior signs. The Twins obviously love the staff at Alabama, obviously picking 2 players from them this year as well as Priellip, the biggest question where we had minimal info on was Stevens and basically did not pitch for Bama this year and was going to transfer. Yet the Twins paid overslot - yes he had some leverage that he could perform well this year in college, but it just doesn't match up with what he has done this year. That tells you the Alabama coaches think he has a lot of untapped potential. After the 1st pick the Twins really swung for the fence and didn't let up even til the end of the draft. The Twins based on the money they paid and the information we have on some of the prospects really liked the college pitching pool this year. If they can replicate anything close to the results of the 2022 pitching class this would be a heck of a class. I didn't really think either of the past 2 draft classes were as good as 2022. This is the first class that I think could give it a run with the depth picks, and the top 4 picks is the best assortment of high end pitchers that the Twins have ever accumulated in a single draft.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    LOL - first off he has had 12 starts. For the year he has 4.97 ERA across 2 levels and 16 starts - that is a good solid season. How many people complained about Gonzalez last year when he struggled. He dropped off the top 100 prospect lists. Plus I said Painter was still a good prospect. The issue is I have seen 2 separate reports stating he is more of a reliever than a starter. Basically a similar write up to Joe Ryan when we got him. Overall I could care less. This is all just random info until we get more specifics as we get closer to the deadline. Its not worth getting riled up over.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Painter has a 5 ERA in AAA. Having a little bit of control issues with the fastball and looking like he may be more of a reliever than a starter. I don't think he is the #1 pitching prospect right now, as a lot of the shine has rubbed off. Even still a really good prospect.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Polanco was a negative WAR most of the year last year. He started off horrid. He ended up with about a 1 WAR. Gonzalez, Bowen and Topa is worth more than 1 season of Polanco. Polanco signed a contract this year.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Tells me it looks like he is likely getting traded. but Hayes appears to be throwing crap against the wall as well in my opinion. What is the truth.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So we are plus 500k right now? Houston underslot by half a million I like a heck of a lot more. Guess is Agbayani or Barr might be seeing some of that extra cash. Wouldn't be suprised if 700k for Agbayani.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    My guess is Painter is who they will want as primary replacement.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So just to clarify - Hays said White Sox wanted to trade for Jenkins, Rodriguez, and/or Brooks Lee but then said neither the White Sox or Twins wanted to trade intra -division. So did the conversation happen or did they just mention our top prospects young players and throw it out?
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Painter has to be the primary target. Then start talking about the others.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    What a moron.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We need a legit C prospect. Who are you going to play C in 2026/2027 especially if you trade Jeffers?
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Controllable bat, or an additional arm. I think the trades would key on getting another RP for the bullpen, and additional high end SP prospect and a Catcher. Rushing seems to be the highest candidate. That seems like the minimum for effectively a rebuild of some sort.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Keaschall has value, done well all the way up and plays a position we are really deep in for the foreseeable future. Buy and Sell could get interesting. Who is posting this?
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Yes the odds we can trade that much talent is doubtful, but if they start the teardown, they might as well go through with it, if they can get ample trade value back or overpays.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Just for giggles - what would you think of this. Jax traded to Red Sox for Duran (OF) and Toole (SP) . 3 1/2 years control for Duran (replaces Bader) and a top end SP 6' 6" that matches what the Twins like. Ryan to Dodgers for Rushing (C) and Ferris (P) and Freeland (3B) Duran to Phillies for Painter (RP) and Crawford (OF). Bader to Yankees for Spencer Jones (OF) Would put Painter in the bullpen. Rushing becomes our backup catcher and long term catcher. and Duran replaces Bader. You add 2 solid pitching prospects in Toole and and Ferris and Freeland (3B) and Crawford to the prospect lists.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    When we are on the selling side we have done really well. For the most part trades have been very much in the Twins favor. Arraez for Pablo (This is a massive win for the Twins). Polanco for Gonzalez, Topa and Bowen (ignore Desclafani - negative asset) (Win for the Twins possibly becoming a really big win) Gray for Petty (Obvious advantage for the Twins and add in continuing value with Debarge) Ryan for Nelson Cruz. (Again massive win for the Twins). The only ones that went sideways were when we were buyers in 2022. Even those for the most part haven't really hurt. If we are holding the leverage I really like the prospects of getting our value. I am not for a total rebuild but there is part of me that thinks if they were to trade Duran, Jax, Ryan, Coloumbe, Castro and Bader (to overpays) - you could quickly rebuild your team either from the trades or additional trades from the offseason and be net ahead in prospect capital. I really do hate tanking, but getting higher draft capital would be a benefit as well. Rebuilding the bullpen would be the primary issue, but I do like Varland and think he could become our long term closer.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We have already won the Polanco trade. He was a negative WAR last year. He then resigned with Seattle.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    As a whole, the Twins haven't lost much in trades. I see it more they have given up on players that had true talent. The only trade that I think has the real potential to bite a bit is Noah Miller (again a player I felt we gave up on just as starting to turn a bit of a corner), and I don't think the bat will ever be good enough for the MLB level. He is already starting to really cool off in AAA. The Gray and Ryan trades have been by far the best trades on the Twins ledger. The only thing I would say is if we can get a massive overpay, on a Ryan, Jax, Duran - you could in theory take that ammo to trade for another pitcher in the offseason which 2 full seasons of a pitcher should be less than 2 1/2. There is significant risk with that strategy. With the comp picks any more, you really need to get immense values in these trades any more for the top players. I still think as they get healthy this team could make a run. I am pretty conflicted overall on what the strategy should be.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Excluding Houston and Priellip (who could be by the end of the year) - Our top 9 prospects have been on a top 100 MLB ranking at some point in their minor league career. Holy crap thats a feat. Houston has the defense, I am just not sure the bat is good enough. A utility player or defensive backup is not worth a whole lot. For my rankings, Houston is 11, the pitchers are 6-9 in some order, Winokur comes in at 10, and Gonzalez is 5. Gonzalez is an elite bat with likely adequate defense in his 20's. Even still I think he is a 2+ WAR player most years in the MLB. For everyone wanting defense, running ability, power - Winokur has that all in spades. The bat is just a tad too streaky but he is on a heck of a heater now. .400/.481/.578 for July. Holy crap. Right now he is the best low minors positional player by quite a margin in my opinion. He appears to have the contact ability when on stretches to continue to improve. With his ceiling and flashes of brilliance, I think he is in the same ballpark, as Priellip, Hill, Soto and Quick.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So Jamie, did you ever like Arraez? He is effectively the outfield version of Arraez witha little more power. Gonzalez is also 21. He has time to become a better defender and gain more power. A 21 year old mashing in AA is a 21 year old mashing in AA. Thats a hell of a feat in any situation. It also means that bat will most likely translate. AA is generally the make or break level, of determining MLB talent. Not to say players cant plateau at AAA, or be AAAA never being able to figure out the MLB level, but the biggest hurdle is AA. Gonzalez after an adjustment period has improved immensely. I have thought Gabriel has looked a little more fit this summer, I think it has also helped his performance. Right now I think the biggest risk for Gonzalez will be the nutrition side. He will need to keep all the athleticism he has. He absolutely cannot go down the Sano path. What this article is kind of showing is that we want to peg players into boxes or cookie cutter molds. Had you been writing articles what would you have thought of someone like Kirby Puckett. Like Gonzalez, shorter build, stocky legs, he did have more speed especially early in career, but he could hit the crap out of the ball (even though a .620 OPS in AAA in 20 games and a .650 OPS in MLB the remainder of 1984). Based on the projection you are making of Gonzalez you likely wouldn't have thought much of Puckett. The power didn't begin to show up until he was 26. I am not here to say Gonzalez is Kirby Puckett, just making a point. Gonzalez even now will be rated higher than Arraez ever was and will be given more opportunities. Honestly, as long as he continues to tweak and get a little better with the bat, there is very little imagination needed to see him as an everyday MLB player.
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