Hawkeye Bean Counter

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-contenders-for-2024-rookies-of-the-year Yes I've heard of Holliday. I also don't think he will start at the MLB level next year. He is 19. There is also the aspect I have more confidence in Lee handling the MLB rigors than Holliday right now. If you read the rest of my post I basically still stated the odds are low.

The Chase Petty for Sonny Gray Trade was brilliant. We received nearly 10 WAR and will be getting a draft pick at nearly the same pick as where we picked Petty. Petty although is doing well for Cincinnati and moved up to AA, has had his ceiling drop some in my opinion (while also raising his floor). He has dialed back his fastball, generally in the 93-95 range. He has had forearm and elbow discomfort for the last 2 years. He threw 98 innings in 2022 and 68 in in 2023 very similar to what Marco Raya pitched. His secondary pitches continue to be fairly strong. Even still, Chase Petty would not net you a Sonny Gray era 2022 pitcher right now in my opinion. He is not the elite fireballer that could be a #1 pitcher. He also has shown he can pitch and will likely be in the MLB assuming his elbow issues don't pop up again (once you start on elbow discomfort though, sooner or later will likely have a more significant injury). The Mahle trade was terrible. Even still CES did awesome in the minors struggled a bit in his first taste of MLB. Steer had a pretty good season, but both are poor defenders, in the mold of Julien. They may ultimately be 1st base/DH types. For the chance at a #1/#2 pitcher I understand it, but they just gave up too much. We will have to continue to trade prospects/or players for elite difference makers in the future. I am ok with that. Also our future looks really good. The 2022 and 2023 drafts both have done very very good as well as the prior drafts. This FO is setting us up for sustained success and I am very happy about that.

I am conflicted about this. I have been a pretty big proponent that Lee has high value to be traded. Both him and Julien have high values. I am slightly changing my tune a bit. Lee has the ability and defensive talent, and demeanor that could handle being the super utility for the Twins. Thats a lot to ask from a rookie. I feel fairly comfortable he would give us .700 OPS and has the possibility to be higher. I don't think he will ever be an elite bat, but a very solid bat with good defense (think a higher end Kepler) and that has more value that even I was thinking about. I would say he is currently the odds on favorite for rookie of the year (I don't count on this, but it gives another chance at a late first round draft pick). If he performs his value will jump even higher. He has the floor of a very effective mlb player. So do you trade him. If another team really likes him and is effectively willing to give 1 for 1 for a high end pitcher with 2+ years of control, it would make me think long and hard. Ultimately though, I really like the pitching staff we have and I would rather trade from prospects in the 5-20 range for a middling or back end starter. In the future we can decide what to do with Lee and Julien, but performance and injuries may make this decision moot, and at that point I would really want a Lee to be able to fill a hole.

Honestly I take the salary discussion as a red herring. I think Falvey wanted it very clear that the decision to decrease payroll was coming from Ownership due to TV deal, even though I don't think that is entirely true. There have been a couple reports being very optimistic not only on a TV deal but also the money they expect to get. So do the previous salary constraints go completely away . . . No and yes. It solves the revenue issue but not necessarily a reduction in costs. I think the Twins had already spent money last year before Correa came available again. In signing him, they went over budget and were given a 1 time ok for doing that. In my mind they were over by $10 mil over where they should have been. So a little pullback was natural, add in the TV deal and yes I think the Twins should be in the $130 to $150 range for the near future for a budget once the TV money is fixed. The Twins had a $134 budget in 2022. We will see what happens but this isn't something that I am going to ruffle my feathers about. I know the Twins are a smaller market team, and unless more fans are going to come out to the games or subscribed this is the type of payrolls we can expect going forward, around 16-20.

Pagan is a player many were wanting to just drop in June. Yes he had a nice end of the season, but the Twins finally figured out to only put him in the lowest of low leverage situations often at the bottom of the line-up, and he could do ok. Still shaky but ok. He is going to the Reds where with a $16 million contract he is going to be expected to not only be in high leverage situations at the top of the line-up, but also in a band box of stadium. There is no way he was worth $16 million. Maybe a 1 year 5 million or a 2 for $8. This has nothing to do with budget constraints.

Pretty sure its been mentioned several times on here. Its also been mentioned that they are looking at the trade market for SP so I don't think this sets it in stone for a FA SP but it does leave an option if they find someone of reasonable value. In general though the FA bargain have not worked out well for the Twins. Would rather just go with Varland. Frankie Montas is interesting but would most likely get out of our price range. The milb deal for a back up SP I have mentioned as well, but prior to the winter meetings this is the type of news we get.

Between Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Jenkins, E Rodriguez, and Winokur I like the options for the outfield for the next 3-4 years and then is trying to figure out if Buxton can ever come back healthy.

Looking at Woofs previous post, I will take what he claimed here with a grain of salt. He has a strong disdain for the reduction in payroll and the Pohlads. It doesn't mean the claim isn't true, but with nothing else to back it up its as substantive as Sonny stating he wanted to retire LOL.

Curious where that rumor mill is coming from. Besides that the payroll is being determined by the TV contracts. Once that is resolved most likely we are back on the previous tract. I would be curious if Correa is that unhappy has a great year if he would want to be traded. Correa on a 4 Year 132 million contract with options is a very reasonable contract especially if he puts up a 4-6 WAR this year. If Correa performs, we should be able to put more than enough quality players around the team to continue to compete. Pablo Lopez signing an extension was huge. You have a #1 or #2 pitcher locked in for 4 years. The bullpen is still a bit of a question mark but begins to be less cloudy if we can find 1 more young elite pitcher to add in there (Varland anyone LOL). The long-term picture for the Twins looks very good to me. As long as the Twins continue to do well in the drafts like they have, the foreseeable future looks very good. The 2022 draft was a knockout (and thats even with Priellip having a set back), if 2023 is even better which it has the possibility then we should have more than enough solid arms and bats coming up through the system in the next 2-3 years to put on the field or for potential trades.

Looking at 1 year performance record to determine whether a contract was good or not is a fools errand. What was promising was how Correa played in the post season. We can say he gave us $9 million worth of performance for the year, I would guestimate, he helped give us much higher return, if you would count an additional 2 games in the playoffs. He was clutch and helped us when games. What is the value of 2 extra home games, 15 mil? 20 Mil? 30 mil? net profit. He looked like the regular Correa. At a $200 mil contract, it is worth the risk. I wish they wouldn't have signed and let Lewis and Lee grow into the SS and 3rd base of the future, but a Lee/Julien, Lewis, Correa infield has the potential to rival any infield in the league. If we can solidify the outfield and 1st base we have a window opening at possibly giving us a chance at a WS in the next 3-4 years before several young players start becoming free agents.

Between Jeffers and Vasquez yes Jeffers has the most value. We have 3 more years of control with Jeffers. Jeffers is a massive improvement in the lineup and has been pretty solid behind the plate. I think you ride Jeffers the next 3 years and see what happens. If he keeps putting up 3 WAR years, first that is very good for us performance wise, secondly I have been hitting hard on this topic a bit but I think the Twins will be more than willing to keep giving players the QO and letting them sign elsewhere for the additional draft picks. Yes they are just draft picks, but that is high level currency that can either improve your system, or flip for a short term upgrade for the team. Right now here are your possibilities 2024- Kepler (40-50%) 2025 - Polanco (20-30%) if we keep him would need a good healthy year on the field 2026 - Jeffers (30-40%) 2027 - Lopez, Duran, Ryan

2 years 16 million ouch. No offense even last year I had minimal belief in Pagan. You need to put him in low pressure situations and if he isn't getting hitters to chase on out of the zone pitches he is largely ineffective. He is not a high pressure position reliever. More just a filler to get through innings in low pressure situations. That isn't a 16 million dollar reliever. Add in he is going to a bandbox for half of his games and I don't see this ending well. 2 years 9 million was his expected contract.

interesting indeed.

A #30 to #33 draft pick. You know a similar type pick that we used on Chase Petty that we were then able to flip for Sonny Gray. Yes draft Capital that can turn into prospects. Or may give the front office the ability to trade our Competitive Balance pick, the only pick that can be traded especially if we get another late round 1 pick. However, I would rather make 4 picks in the top 44 so picks and see what they can do. The more assets an organization has, A. It likely allows for a better product on the field B. Gives more options to maneuver whether trades or otherwise to fill organizational needs.

I know not rule 5 but would anyone take a flier on Austin Meadows. Either as a AAA signing or depth signing for the MLB club. We didn't do very well with the mental health on Lopez. However I think the Orioles just caught lightning in a bottle with him. Meadows has more talent than Lopez. Just curious what everyone thinks.

I anticipate a 130-135 range. I expect 1 decent signing but have no idea who or what that might be. So far a CF, or 1st baseman and maybe some relief help is the most likely spots for some signings. Plus I could see us taking on some salary with trading for a pitcher, but also trading away some salary as well. Too hard to tell at this point.

Front office has already said they want another Starter most likely in the trade market. However, it seems most teams want 6 starters going into the season. I could very well see Varland or Ober being number 6 and starting in AAA. You are not putting your best players in their spots but inevitably you will need another starter some point in the season. We need 6 viable starters and Varland easily is one of those. He is a #5 pitcher at worst which has value exemplified by what the Cardinals did with Lynn and Gibson. However, for the team he can be the #2 reliever for a long time in my opinion. Him and Duran would be an excellent 1, 2 punch and then can add in Jax as well. Most likely he stays in a starter roll and then I foresee him moving back to the bullpen if still having mediocre stats and we are in the hunt at the end of the season for the playoffs before he cements himself as a reliever. Thats my guess anyway before a long offseason and and even season for that matter.

I see Varland as a bulldog of an elite setup man. Otherwise at best he is probably a #3 starter. Value wise, a #3 starter is worth more, but personally I think he can be elite in the bullpen. It is too early in the offseason to say because we didn't resign Maeda or Gray (we were never gong to resign him), is showing how we are going to treat Varland. However I think they have stated they view him as a starter, so most likely he will move back unless the front office and Varland have had a talk in the offseason and agree the bullpen is the best spot for him. Even if he goes back to being a starter, I think sooner or later he will be back in the bullpen in the next year or two.

Mike I know he had bad luck before, but in the prior 3 years he had the lowest babip of any player. I didn't realize how bad his luck had been, but also how long it had lasted. Maybe he will go on a 3 year stretch of good luck 😉. We do have to acknowledge that he is likely getting some help from less shift. He will always be shifted but even 3 to 4 more singles raises the BA 10%. Kepler should be a .260/.330/.820 guy. His WAR the last 3 years is 2.1, 2.2, 2.9. He is also only had 1 year really below 2 (He was a 1 WAR, another year he did have 1.9 but not significant difference for this discussion). We like to downgrade players and look at their warts yet not really see how good they are. The war shows a player that is a 20 mil player consistently whether he is hitting or not. If he is hitting then he is an elite player. If he has 4 years of 2+ WAR I can guarantee he will be qualifying offer.

Tell me why the Twins would go hard after a player when they can get significant draft capital if they let him go? We signed our Ace in Pablo. We can fill in for a #2 with the trades as discussed here.

I still stand by a big trade likely involves 1 of Julien and Lee, I would trade Lee as you will likely get more value for him. I understand the defensive difference between the two players, I just think Julien can play respectable defense while having a better bat than Lee. Maybe I am wrong. This only happens if you are going after an elite pitcher with 2 or more years of control. I could also see Soto as a potential trade bait as well but beyond that, will just have to wait and see what they do. 1 of Polanco and Julien is likely traded. I really don't think Kepler gets traded this year. As to Vasquez, who knows. I think you just keep him as the backup and see if he bounces back. Catching is one of those positions where hitting seems to vary considerably. So we overpay a bit for a backup catcher, there is worse ways to spend that money and unless someone is going to give you close to the value of the contract I think you would have to eat too much salary to make the trade work or giving away a prospect as a sweetener.

Kepler hit at over a .290 clip for 3 straight months. Kepler has never done that before. That looks repeatable, and looks like more than just a small sample size. Yes maybe he would be able to string together 3 months again like that, but if strings together 5 months of .270 BA with a very respectable OPS that is definitely a 3 year 50+million contract. He is swinging much more frequently 50% of the time, and making contact earlier in counts on better quality pitches than trying to hit borderline strikes protecting the plate. Being aggressive at the plate can work and along with more confidence and less shift worked out well to end the season. Now maybe pitchers will begin to throw more junk early in counts against him. But if he lays off this you are getting into hitters counts and in even a better spot. Even with the more aggressive approach he wasn't striking out at a significantly higher rate. Just putting more balls in play with better contact, but not necessarily more power, the homer rate actually dipped a bit. He doubled his hits from the prior year to right field, 12 to 24. A mix of better contact and less shift. Kepler was well over a negative 1 war in the first 3 months. He pulled in well over a 4 WAR to end the season. You extrapolate that out and thats a hell of a player for a season. 8 WAR type player.

I believe on a 1 year deal he is worth closer to 23 to 25 million. A team is willing to go higher on a 1 year deal than a multi year deal. It is basically the strategy that Trevor Bauer took. It really comes down to what type of player is Kepler next year. If he just averages out last years statistics into this year he is well worth a qualifying offer. I personally think he figured something out so will likely be well worth the qualifying offer. If that is the case it will just come down to health.

I was thinking about this more lately. I could see Polanco being flipped, but if Kepler just performs the same as he did last year and averages his performance out (instead of poor spring hot late summer fall) he is easily a 3 to 4 year 20 million AAV player. That is another Qualifying offer pick. A team like the Yankees would not get that value if he were to leave they would need to resign, that also means they would have to give up a very good compensation to get him. We currently have an outfield that is currently not in a stable position. I think this team is big on accumulating as many "free assets" as they can, and the draft compensation from the qualifying picks will continue to be a big part of their strategy moving forward. Polanco right now unless he has a really strong year next year, just does not look like a player that would command a 50+ mill contract. Plus he is in the infield where we have a lot more depth.

Sounds like the cardinals may be putting on Steven Matz on the trade block as well.