Hawkeye Bean Counter

So Teoscar signed for what is effectively a 20 million 1 year contract. I have had this discussion with many on the board, its that Kepler and Polanco if they have healthy good years, are better players than Teoscar and would likely be worthy of QO. Now there was no draft compensation included in Hernandez's signing, I understand that, but Polanco and Kepler are better players than he is by a significant amount. Any trade will need to bring back significant compensation, as the new team, may be able to offer the QO themselves, or the Twins can keep and hope for healthy good season from the players. I am fine with a trade, but there value not only to the team this year, but also potentially with QO and draft compensation is significant. I don't look so crazy anymore do I LOL.

I think between the limited success of Stewart and to a certain extent De Leon, I think they feel confident they can fix 1 to 2 and find a quality reliever. Wish we would have kept Cano and been unable to unlock him but what do I know. Lets pull Wild thing out of retirement and put all 3 of these pitchers in the bullpen it should be entertaining. I do think they will have moderate success at likely find 1 decent reliever option between AJ Alexy, Staumont and Jensen, even though I think Staumont is more of a play for 2024 than 2023. In either case hopefully 1 of these arms can become another Brock Stewart. Someone with elite talent but never been able to unlock it.

I am not a fan of 6 man rotations, I am a fan of having 6 starting pitchers on a team going into each year with 1 to 2 prospects that you think you can count on during the season if need be. It is inevitable 1 to 2 pitchers will go down at the same time. To limit your depth issues and also causing you bullpen to get overwhelmed your depth can help you get through the rough patches. It worked for us this year as well as the Texas Rangers. For me I think Lopez and Paddack will be our 1 and 2 this year but their is a lot of variability potential in Paddack and how many innings he will be able to pitch. with that being said, I think its in the Twins best interest to try to trade for a #2 or #3 pitcher.

130+ innings I guess fits in both categories LOL. Even still if we get 260 sub 4 ERA from the combination of Ryan and Ober I think the Twins would be pretty happy with that.

NM

Ummmmm . . . the Twins effectively had 6 starters for last year, I think they will have a similar set up for this year. It assumes someone will have an injury or worse performance. You are setting incredibly high standards of success that is no longer as relevant to the current way baseball is being played. The Twins were 3rd in average number of innings pitched by their starters. As to the Rangers, they were a hodge podge of quality starters as well as Arizona. Neither had what could effectively be billed as an ace that was pitching as an ace in the playoffs. The Rangers and Arizona had 2 of the 3 worst pitching staffs going into the playoffs. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10091773-ranking-the-pitching-staff-of-every-2023-mlb-playoff-team Ultimately you need enough innings pitched by your starters than don't overwhelm your bullpen. The Twins were effective with it last year and seem to be on similar path for next year. Getting upset by an unfinished product does not seem very pragmatic for the current situation. We needed more Bundy's Archer's Shoemakers due to complete absence of a pitching staff and/or a decent pipeline in the minors. The overall pitching quality and depth is night and day throughout the entire system than 2017. The front office is not perfect and deserves some criticism, however considering what they were handed and the overall pitching and hitters in the organization we seem in a very good position to have continued success. To be bemoan the quality of a Ryan and Ober is rather concerning in my opinion.

ehhh, throw it in the general public forum and you will get general public responses. Refer to my first post in this thread. Even with out seeing the rest of the information still seems non care takers can have a genuine take on the signing or the other posts in the thread. If not then again put it in only the Caretaker forum that can only be read or responded to by caretakers.

they didn't pitch that many innings for their team though. Isn't that the very definition you just stated was not successful of 130+ innings from Ober and Ryan. Seem to be moving the goalposts.

Mn fireman "130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is not a successful season" Stating Ober and Ryan don't count as options getting over 130 is rather concerning which started this entire post. If those 2 achieve it with Lopez that is better or equivalent to 26 other teams without giving any possibilities at the #4 or #5 pitcher. You need solid pitchers like Ryan and Ober remaining healthy to have a successful staff and give you a decent shot of getting to the playoffs and possibly succeeding in the playoffs. Thinking that you will have a top 1 to 2 staff is rather pie in the sky for thinking that is the only level of being successful.

Ehh . . The odds are not high but I would say the Twins are thinking better than 40% chance they are able to achieve this. They know a couple things we don't, the first being which procedure he had. Up to this point that is not public knowledge. The second is they were likely given information on his rehab, pitching progress, current velocity if already pitching, potential progress on sweeper slider if working on one and assessing his buy in on trying to change his repertoire. As to velocity, he still averaged 95.6 with what has been described as a sore shoulder he was trying to pitch through last year. If the surgery was successful, which I am going to presume was and he was already topping out at 97 to 98 last year, I think its fairly easy to assume the velocity will be close to what it was before. Paddack throwing a pitch harder than he ever has gives me decent confidence in the velocity department with the pitching staff philosophies. So yes your mantra speaks to every pitcher. However it appears we improved Gray, Lopez, Ryan and potentially Paddack better than their previous teams had. I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on a flier like Staumont. Sadly a Hader is not in the equation, so a flier like Staumont is likely our best option to find another quality reliever. You need to state the alternative before knocking down Staumont in my opinion. What makes the Rays better than every other team? Their hit rate on fliers like Staumont is so much higher than everyone else. What they generally do better than most teams due to their extremely low payroll is to not get caught with their pants down on a long term contract gone bad, cough cough (Wander Franco). Its not sexy but I very much like the potential and willing to be patient to see what the Twins are able to do with him. Expecting a sexy pickup this year in free agency is a slim to none proposition. The only player with a possibility would be Rhys Hoskins and I don't think that is a high possibility.

Not spending money on Relief pitchers and being very selective with pitching contracts is obviously the primary method to the Front Office philosophy. A 538-494 record is quite the accomplishment since 2017. It has been a gradual process of stealing from the minors to supplement the majors team success (affectively trading away the entirety of the 2021 draft class) but grabbing pitchers like Paddack and Staumont have been successful for the Twins. They have hit on more of the injured players recovering than retread starting pitchers that are significantly past their prime. This is the most balanced between the minors and majors I think I have seen since I have been an adult fan. You have a healthy amount of high quality arms in the minors and we have an ace in Pablo which I don't feel we have had since Santana. We have a nice 4 year window to do something special and/or find another ace for Pablo to hand off the baton too. You have some high quality bats with not only immense ceilings but competitive quality players in the minors. I like the winning attitude they are creating. The last 2 years all levels of the minors have been competitive in their divisions and this looks to continue. Under the radar bats are plentiful and waiting for an opportunity to see if they can succeed.

Staumont has upside. I think the Twins feel comfortable with having 39 spots and opening another up if they intend to move him to the injured list for the year. Where is the upside - without reading the article is finding the velocity again which is not a guarantee, and continue working on the slider and or sweeper. It seems hitters were able to tell when the curveball was coming by not having a similar tunnel, the other is he was having difficulty keeping it in the zone. So the issue became the curve was no longer a weapon as teams knew to lay off the pitch. This raised his walks. The other oddity is he extremely struggled in Kauffman stadium. You are outside of SSS area on that one, so it becomes were the dimensions of Kauffman hurting him and why, and if so, why didn't the defense shift to where a majority of the hits were made. So yes if the velocity comes back and a sweeper/slider, is able to keep hitters back on their toes, there is the possibility that he reverts back to his dominant self. I know there were some oddities with his early stats, but talking with a couple royal fans, they feel he really lost something after getting Covid. He had significant weightloss. I am curious if he begins to regain some of that weight back as he gets further away from the Illness. Could have a situation between continued regular health improvement, healing the shoulder, removing self from Kauffman (including increasing confidence) and lastly a sweeper that makes his entire arsenal much more effective, you have a very suitable set up man for a cool 1 million dollars. This may not manifest this year. There is a very real possibility we continue to rehab and work with him and he is almost like a deadline addition without having to trade for one. Otherwise its a stash for next year.

Back to another Caretaker article that doesn't give you the full article. I will continue to post if you want the caretaker articles put them in the caretaker section. Muddles up for your regular posters. Posted as a main article at the top of the web page. In 2 separate spots. One that says caretakers but isn't clear, the other, the one that I clicked on that had no forewarning of a caretakers article.

You forgot the + LOL. How many pitchers do you think pitched more than 130 innings last year? Are you surprised to know it was only 86. That is 2 1/2 pitchers per a staff. Who do we have that could potentially do that next year Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober Varland plus any other pitcher signed or traded for. The Twins had 4 of the 84 last year. With 2 of them being Ryan and Ober LOL. I would consider last year a pretty successful season with those 2 just giving us a little over 130 innings. I think Ryan has the ability to get more in the 150 to 170 range, but I think 130 is about what to expect from Ober and anything more is gravy. I think statistically Gray had an otherworldly start to the year. If you remove his first 2 months, I think as a whole, this pitching staff will perform better than last year, which is a very high hurdle. I think Lopez is rounding into a true ace. Ober has always been above average when available, and a healthy Ryan is a solid low #2 to high #3. Paddack is the potential difference maker. Another high end #2 really rounds out the rotation. You can have a rotation of #5 pitchers and still have an excellent staff. I am still waiting to see if they make another move either from signing or trading for another starter.

I disagree, If the Lopez is a true fire ace, you need 2 of the 3 of Ryan Ober and Paddack to be 130+ inning starters. If all 3 are healthy and solid then you are in a really strong position. You have Varland, likely another traded for pitcher, Festa, SWR, Canterino as potential other options. The depth the Twins have had on the pitching staff is becoming stronger each year. That is potential 5 different options to fill in the back end of your rotation. If not, Varland and Canterino can potentially be bullpen options.

I am surprised there isn't a little more positivity regarding this signing. Most likely if the Twins signed him they are optimistic about the medicals. I am curious how far along he is in the rehab process, generally it looks like a 4-6 month recovery, then most pitchers are not at a level to pitch on the mlb level for the next year. In watching him pitch the last several years, I thought he had high end stuff. Maybe he loses the stuff if he had the less invasive procedure maybe he doesn't. This ultimately come down to does he regain the velocity, and then is the slider (which is evidenced by last years stats) - a more effective pitch than the curve ball that hitters were laying off of which he did not seem to be able to keep in the zone. I would say this is better than a lottery ticket, there is definitely a potential high end reliever here. You are only paying 1 million for the option to see if you can rehab him this year to be an option next year in my opinion. He may regain the pitching feel sooner than others, but that is a lot to expect. May be an end of the year arm to throw in the mix is the best bet I think on this signing.

Right now I would argue the 3 pitchers in the system with the highest ceiling outside of Lopez - are Paddack, Canterino and Priellip. Now we have had some arms really develop but these 3 are all high end arms with immense injury history. It would be great if all 3 were healthy this year and moving forward, but odds are at least 1 is going to bust or get injured again. Now we get to add Staumont to the group. The way Paddack pitched in the playoffs gave a lot of confidence to what he can potentially do next season. Generally the command is the last thing to come, but he had not only more velocity but the command was there in spades. Obviously it was a small sample size, but he handled the Astros line up 2nd to only Lopez in my opinion. We definitely seem to be cornering the injured pitchers market and willing to see their performance once they heal. Similar to Paddack I see this year as a transition year for Staumont. Canterino is really on his last year to show something in positive in my opinion. Priellip I hope is finally healthy.

I think I would lean away, tends to have a good year followed by a bad year.

I could see Bally's as 1 year stop gap, want nothing of a long term plan.

Manoah's issue appear to be mental and his physical status. If he is taking better care of his body in the offseason, I think it will give you a big indicator on whether he will be successful this year or not. The second is how severe is the shoulder injury. He received an injection for shoulder discomfort this fall. Seems like a Paddack situation all over. Still likely worth a flier.

My expectations are 1 decent FA addition and 1 pitcher traded for (thinking a #3 type pitcher with upside). I am still have a gut feel we go after and get Hoskins. Minimal smoke there other than the Cubs and we have some interest. If Cubs want him, they will get him, but will just have to wait and see.

Well not getting Gray gets us a 1st round draft pick. Which may allow us to trade the comp B pick for something or a prospect like Soto for something of quality. If we can pull off another Gray trade, I think everyone would be pretty happy.

Soto has a high ceiling but yes is still raw. It is good and bad. he doesn't have engrained bad habits, easier to mold, and less stress on the arm, and has a really nice build should be able to handle the physical demands. His success will likely come down to increased control. If you can gain that and develop even further the change up and slider, with the elite fastball, you have a possible #1 pitcher. However, you have possibly injuries and other delays or hurdles in development that make success on high school pitchers that much more difficult. However, with Questad, you have take 2 chances to hopefully find an elite pitcher.

Its kind of like tax time, it doesn't matter the time frame of when income or expense or withholding occurs, at the end of the day, the final picture will always be the same at 12/31. So the question is who cares about momentum in December on signing? And why would you. This is the time frame of massive overpays. We have a really well balanced team already with relatively few holes. I hope for some upgrades, but am happy with where we are currently. The major way this team will improve is through a trade, which is obviously subtracting someone from the team.

Lets see, Varland could either be an elite RP, or may have found what level of pitching is needed in the mlb to succeed and be even better than Kremer. Beyond that the Orioles are not trading away any starting pitching. They already have gaps, they won't create more.