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About 2wins87

  • Birthday 08/01/1987

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  1. Correa's max arm strength was 95 mph, 5th in the majors this year among IF only guys (max velo OF throws are much different since guys get a lot more momentum behind them). His arm was as good as expected if you look at the right stat. Comparing to pitcher velocity is tough but my guess is if you add a few MPH for infielders and subtract a few for outfielders you would probably end up around what they could do off of a mound, so I'm guessing Correa probably could hit 98 off the mound which is right up there among some very hard throwing pitchers.
  2. Nice to see some of the top performances coming out of the upper levels. I don't generally put a whole lot of stock into minor league relief performances until they can do it in AA or AAA.
  3. I don't remember super well on Sisk but I think he was probably mid 90s with the FB when I watched him. The most notable thing about him is his arm slot from the left side, maybe not quite side-arm but below 3/4, giving lefties a really tough time against him. Laweryson is really only a low 90s max guy. I think he was 89-92 when I was able to see velo reading on him. He's got a funky delivery though, with a sort of glove flick out in front that I think must really make it hard for hitters to pick out his release point. The fastball seems to work way better than you would expect otherwise. Schulfer is a legit upper 90s guy, I think he sat mostly 95-97 when I watched him, and even hit 99 if you believe the radar gun in St. Paul. Might be sort of comparable to Jax in that he increased his velocity significantly in his first year as a reliever and throws quite a few sliders. No idea on the other guys. You would probably be able to see some radar reading on McMahon if you watch his appearances in some archived AA games.
  4. I know they signed Nowlin out of junior college and went a little above slot to sign him away from Alabama. I remember hearing that he was another guy who had added a little bit of velocity this year, so I think he was getting into the mid 90s IIRC. Low A numbers can be a little deceiving for pitchers, but he's having a great season. Definitely worthy of at least a top 40 consideration for me.
  5. Yeah the stats don't jump off the page for SWR but when I dig into them a bit more he looks a lot better. First off the Texas League is a tough place to pitch; when you compare him to other pitchers in the league his FIP is 6th and his ERA is 8th (minimum 50 innings). He's doing it as a 21 year old too, still one of the youngest pitchers in the league. I can see where someone could say that he's gotten lucky to have such a low HR/FB rate and BABIP in a high offense league, but I think there is reason for encouragement there too. He's had a 33% infield fly ball rate. With a 42% FB rate in general that's 14% of his balls in play that are basically automatic outs, essentially as good as strikeouts. I think if you looked at his HR to outfield fly ball rate that would look maybe a bit lucky still but would be a lot closer to normal. I'm also pretty sure I remember hearing third hand (probably on this site) that his "mysterious" injury was COVID, so probably not anything to worry about long-term health wise. Anyway, I'm actually pretty encouraged by his season so far.
  6. That's a good question, I don't really know, I'm guessing he's in the bubble group. Seems with his positional versatility he could easily fill a utility role and he seems ready for a major league trial. Maybe he could sneak through the draft on the fact that he'll be turning 27 at the beginning of next season. Or if he were picked a team might not be too invested in hanging on to him if he struggles early do to his age. I think the FO likes to bring in a few veteran guys to fill the AAA depth roles, though I often wonder if the marginal prospects might often be the best options. Palacios did end up getting the fill-in shortstop role this year, though maybe if there had been a rule 5 draft he wouldn't have still been around. I would hope they considering giving him a 40-man slot just to be an injury fill in at basically any position. Seems like a useful role and we can pretty much guarantee he'd be needed multiple times next year.
  7. Julien's K rate is 24%. Not great but not too bad. Always gotta use PAs for K% rather than AB, particularly for a guy who walks a lot so the difference between PA and AB is large. It's been good to see him getting to his power again lately. A guy who doesn't have great contact skills and relies on drawing walks probably doesn't translate all that well to the majors if he doesn't have power to back it up. If he keeps showing solid power I'll be encouraged.
  8. I don't actually know how fast Helman is but he's 24 for 26 stealing bases this year and plays a lot of centerfield so I'm fairly confident he's significantly faster than Steer. He's a guy that plays all over the place and does a lot of things quite well. He's definitely been too far under the radar this year, and in previous years I guess too. I was actually wondering yesterday if he might get the spot Cave did with the outfield so banged up. I think Gordon is definitely a good comp for the type of player Helman might be from the other side of the plate. Statistically Helman's minor league career has been a bit better than Gordon's though not by a ton. They had similar K rates in the 15-20% range, Helman has walked just a touch more, and Helman also showed a bit more power early on. We have to keep in mind that Helman is just a couple months younger than Gordon right now so Gordon was much younger at every level, even when repeating AAA. Helman also probably wouldn't even be an emergency option at short, though he has had more experience at other infield positions than Gordon. Gordon is currently putting up a 109 wRC+ in the majors, so if Helman does that any time in the next few years that would probably be a pretty fantastic outcome for him. I think with Gordon, the disappointment from high expectations several years ago has made it hard to readjust and see that he's actually a very good player in the role he has.
  9. They just added 18 guys in the draft and there is a 180 minor league player limit that I think gets enforced sometime in early August. I'm not sure how many minor leaguers the Twins actually have so they could already be under the limit, but it also might mean a couple more cuts of journeyman types which tends to happen post draft.
  10. Overall good trade deadline. I think they checked all the boxes for what they needed to acquire and all of the deals were pretty reasonable. They did thin out the farm somewhat significantly, but didn't have to give up the very top guys. I don't think it's likely we look back in a few years and see that they've lost a star, but probably they will have lost a couple of valuable role players. Nothing that can't be made up more good decisions and development. If I wanted to criticize, I think it was pretty obvious from the last day of the offseason that the pitching was pretty iffy and they didn't seem willing to pay free agent prices for real upgrades. They gave up quite a bit today. They could definitely have been in a similar position now with more of their prospect capital or maybe have used the same capital to be in an even better position.
  11. I wouldn't put anything close to Miranda or Votto contact grades on CES. Miranda literally had a career minor league K rate half that of CES, and Votto always had K rates under 20% as well. What he does have is a crap ton of power with a still very reasonable amount of swing and miss. Trying to come up with power/contact comp quickly maybe Matt Olson? Encarnacion-Strand still needs to walk more though. Maybe if you really want to dream on him Pete Alonso? Again, CES has work to do on his plate discipline to really be in the conversation at that level. I still think Steer is the big loss in this one for that reason, though I absolutely think CES will be a good major leaguer too.
  12. Ok fine, I would say it's fairly similar even if it doesn't look that way on paper according to the lists by national publications. Most of the lists have not really been heavily updated since March. Martin was ranked very high on some lists at the beginning of the season but he was already having a bit of a slower start than hoped. He probably should have been viewed around #50 where he ended up at the end of the season. Steer is on the rise and I would not be surprised to see him around #50 on some lists coming into 2023. CES will likely be more of a bubble guy on the outside of the top 100, but paired with a solid arm, I don't think it's unreasonable to put a similar value to SWR last year, maybe just a bit lower. The main point is that the Twins are trading risers for Mahle while the Blue Jays traded a guy who was trending down a bit and a guy who was having a bit of a hiatus in his development because of the Olympics.
  13. CES is more likely a 1B prospect also despite playing mostly at 3B so far. Doesn't really change the depth chart considerations.
  14. I like Mahle, but yeah, certainly not painless. Compared to the Berrios trade, you could probably say it's fairly similar. Steer doesn't have the pedigree that Martin did at the time but he's rising fast and his season this year has not been far off what Miranda did last year at the same two levels. There are a few mitigating factors that make me skeptical that Steer will transition quite as easily as Miranda is right now, but it still could be a trade where we see what we gave up rather quickly. CES and Hajjar combined maybe don't rank as highly as Woods Richardson did either, but I think CES is a legit masher regardless of where he ends up. I'm less sold on Hajjar since he's only in low A where stats very often look deceptively good for a 22 year old pitcher, but still a good arm nonetheless.
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