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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. I did notice him midseason. I can only surmise that the reason he seems so underappreciated is that the organization doesn't actually view him as a catcher going forward. That's just speculation based on the fact that he played more outfield than catcher, but I haven't heard anything about his defense at catcher. He did play a bit more there (relatively) after his promotion to Cedar Rapids. At any rate he's got great very good plate discipline numbers with a bit of pop already. Enough to be a sleeper even as an outfield prospect, and he probably ought to be in the conversation for the top 20 if there is any confidence that he can be a decent defensive catcher. I'd love some information on this.
  2. You're only about a third of the way there with that offer. You can run the numbers here: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ The values aren't exact but they are always at least in the ballpark for real trades that actually happen. Whatever you think the values should be, Kepler isn't headlining a trade to Miami just due to fit. They want a younger more cost controlled guy, which is why I think Kirilloff would be their top target.
  3. I think Jeffers is a bit low. Catcher is a tough position to fill and I think teams value them a bit above their WAR because of this. Also Jeffers hit quite well when Garver was out. His offense has been suppressed by facing so much right handed pitching, but long term it should still be very solid for a catcher. Celestino also deserve a mention, I think pretty close to Ober in terms of future value. He hit really well after heading back down to AAA. It was a tough position to be put in jumping up to the majors after just 100 PAs in AA. I think he has enough pop to play as an elite corner defender or good center-fielder long term.
  4. Jeffers OPS was over .800 in June and July when Garver was out and Jeffers was the primary catcher. His offense is capable when he plays full time for a catcher and doesn't have to face right handed pitching all the time.
  5. Seems like kind of weird timing. But also sounds like he won't be ready to start pitching again by spring training, so we're talking about a relief only guy who's pitched all of 1/3 of an inning in the past two years, and who knows when he'll be built back up to start pitching again.
  6. I think Trevor Rogers would be virtually untouchable given how good he was and how much team control he has left. Similarly, if the Marlins are building for the future they're not about to trade Sanchez. I think Alcantara would probably actually be the most available, though it depends on how durable they think Lopez can be. Alcantara will be more expensive in arbitration, Lopez is half a year younger at the same arbitration stage and his stats actually look better, he just hasn't been able to stay in the rotation as much, and he does have a smaller frame. Alcantara definitely looks like he could fit pretty well into a Berrios shaped hole in the roster. I'm not really crazy about trading Garver though--or Jeffers really. I'm pretty sure Garver projects as one of the top 3 offensive producers heading into next year. They can rotate him through the DH spot to get him more at bats (and Jeffers more at bats vs lefties). I'm not sure his trade value is really any higher than his value to the team, it seems like it would be pretty easy to end up treading water in any move involving him.
  7. Emmanuel Rodriguez should be tied for 4th on the list of hitters. It's hard to get enough ABs in the complex league to qualify for whatever cutoff was used, and he did play in a majority of their games. I think Urbina is a guy to not give up on yet, despite the abysmal top line numbers. The Low-A Southeast was a very low offense league with a changing automatic strike zone. He kept his strikeout rate quite low, but just didn't hit the ball with any authority. That could come if he adds some strength and refines his approach, and the numbers could improve in a hurry. In general, the system lacks that potential superstar that they have sometimes had in the past. Maybe Duran putting it all together is the best shot. But if they can produce good mid rotation starters and relievers at will it can at least help them focus monetary resources on filling other gaps. It's a change from the previous regime, but they also haven't had many opportunities to get pick those really toolsy high upside guys that the previous regime was good at drafting. Cavaco is looking like a reach, but we'll see what they can do with the #8 pick next year.
  8. It seems like most of the difference between the first and second half for Alcala is that he got clobbered for 9 HR in the first half and only allowed 1 in the last half. His K and BB numbers did improve a bit also. I like to think he was better all year long, and it certainly seems like there was some bad HR "luck" in the first half. (If you don't like the word luck just all it making all of his mistakes to the wrong hitters at the wrong time). For a lot of the changes I'm not sure what happened mid season and what happened before the season. I remember looking at his pitch mix when they first started talking up his "new" changeup in May or June and it was basically unchanged from last year, but now by the end of the year he's thrown his changeup almost twice as often, so he definitely threw it a lot more in the second half. I think the big thing is that his overall improvement in command and consistency with all of his pitches was really apparent this year. In addition to the heat map for the fastball in the article, there was a really obvious change in the heat map for his slider. In 2019 and 2020 he threw sliders up in the middle of the zone all the time, and actually got away with it probably a lot more than he should have. He had a very nice looking cluster around the bottom right part of the zone this year. I definitely want to buy him truly breaking out next season. If it weren't for the home run problems in the first half it would have already been a lot more apparent.
  9. Jeffers and Garver isn't an ideal platoon, but honestly it's a pretty good platoon and there's no reason to break it up unless someone really blows them away with an offer. Jeffers was definitely hampered by the playing time split with Garver, who crushes lefties so much that you do want him in the lineup against them as much as possible. When Garver was out in June and July and Jeffers got to see a lot more lefties, his OPS was over .800. If Garver is out, I want that kind of production from his backup, which is not going to happen if the backup plan is like a 50-50 split with Rortvedt and some other defense first AAAA catcher. Even if Jeffers has to face a lot more righties than is ideal in the second catcher role, he'll probably still provide better offense than Rortvedt in the same role. I was very pleasantly surprised by how well Rortvedt performed in AAA, but his overall minor league track record is much more in line with his major league numbers. I think he's still a valuable asset for his defense, and in a platoon with Jeffers or Garver he can face basically all righties giving him as much of a shot to hit as possible. I also think Garver might start a slow transition toward 1B/DH. The injuries have started to pile up, and he's proven he has the bat for it. I hope they leave the DH spot open next year to rotate through Garver, Donaldson, Arraez, and a few others. That should give Jeffers a bigger role to succeed in.
  10. Update: They definitely did change it The phrase "strike calls on breaking balls in the dirt" surely explains at least a part of some of the wacky stat lines (like Sabato's 50%+ combined walk and strikeout rate) that have come from that league.
  11. Most likely not primarily due to the pitchers themselves but more the new automatic strike zone which has definitely messed with hitters and lead to sky high walk and strikeout rates. I think I heard that they even adjusted the limits of the zone midseason though I'm not sure about that.
  12. I've sort of been thinking he could have career similar to Duffey, though I think Duffey was more of a control guy at this stage of development. I'm not super confident Vallimont will be a starter long term but I could definitely see him being very successful reliever focusing on his fastball and slider while keeping the curve as more of a change of pace offering as Duffey does. Not that there needs to be any rush moving him off of the starter role, it just feels like that's where he might end up to me.
  13. There are a lot of ways that inexperienced, stretched, or just bad defense can lead to guys getting on base without the official scorer handing out an error.
  14. Personally I'd much rather see them fill the rotation with guys that might not quite be ready than sign more Shoemaker, Happ, or even Pineda types. I would have thought they'd have plenty of options earlier this year, but there is definitely a question of how many healthy pitchers they'll have next year. Obviously they will have to make a free agent signing for the rotation, but I hope they can convince someone good to come to Minnesota and concentrate the money on a bigger free agent splash. I think the opening day rotation could/should look something like this: 1. Free Agent 1 2. Ober 3. Free Agent 2? 4. Dobnak 5. Ryan AAA Depth: Jax, Duran, Winder, Balazovic, Sands, Strotman, Vallimont Potential options later in the year: Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Enlow, Maeda hopefully--depending on health I actually would feel ok about that rotation if they can actually get a decent free agent to lead it, and maybe they could even go without the second free agent, though I don't see a situation where they don't make at least two signings for the rotation. There's plenty of downside risk with unproven guys, and several of the minor league options also have potential health questions, but it still seems like they will have plenty of options to fill in if certain guys falter or get injured. If things go right they should get enough run support that their purported plan of competing next year wouldn't be out of the question. If things don't go so right it probably won't be any worse than Happ and Shoemaker this year, and we can at least get an idea of which of the young guys can be counted on as #2 or #3 starters going forward.
  15. Infield defenses in low A don't tend to be great at suppressing BABIP on ground balls
  16. That's Rodriguez's 8th homer in just over 100 plate appearances. He's showing some serious power for such a young guy, though has also struck out a bit more than you'd like to see.
  17. Thanks for the great article. I noticed his peripherals recently and remembered his name from being a second day draft pick, but it's good to get some recent scouting data. I wonder if he's a bit too in the zone which has lead to a bit higher batting averages against him than you might expect with the rest of his peripherals. If he's already got the command he can work on refining his approach in different counts and situations though. That slider looked perfectly placed to get hitters at any level though. We're starting to see a lot of potentially solid mid-rotation arms pop up from all over the system. It seems like developing those top of the rotation arms is still a challenge as always, but I definitely believe they've built up the depth to fill up the middle and back of the rotation with competent homegrown guys for years to come. Hopefully if the front office can stop needing to fill out the rotation in free agency they can get a couple top targets to build around.
  18. Fangraphs has a really good stats filter that lets you combine upper minors performance (AA and AAA) across all minor leaguers. Check it out here: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=2,4,5,6,7&stats=bat&qual=y&type=1&team=&season=2021&seasonEnd=2021&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,1 There's no one else who's still of prospect age and who's had enough plate appearances that has been any better than Miranda. I'm pretty excited about his future.
  19. Does Jefferson Morales have a chance to stick behind the plate with decent defense? He played more in the outfield than behind the plate in Fort Myers, leading me to think they didn't think much about his defense at catcher. His two starts in the field in Cedar Rapids have been at catcher now though. I've only seen about an inning of him behind the plate. It looked like he moved pretty athletically, but I didn't see anything to indicate how good his overall receiving and blocking were. His overall stats suggest a guy that's very good at controlling the strike zone, with a bit of pop too. If he can be a decent catcher and maybe even add more power he seems like someone who should be getting a lot more attention.
  20. I'm not sure I really do agree with this when it comes to AA and AAA stats. I think they get to be fairly projectable at that point it you are looking at the most predictive ones. There is obviously still variance, but particularly focusing on things like K%, BB%, and ISO, there aren't too many huge surprises, at least to the downside. My top predictor for hitters in the lower levels would be K rate anyway, and taking his whole career into account he's never had an issue there. I feel pretty comfortable projecting that he'll be at least a solid regular based off of this year. It's just hard to find counterexamples.
  21. A little nit-picky but you have to use PA as the divisor for K%, not AB. Sabato has been striking out in the 30-40% range, not 40-50% as you say. Still not good in the lower levels, and I don't disagree with anything else you've said, but all of those walks affecting the K% calculation have also kept his overall performance from being truly awful.
  22. I think the main knock on Miranda is that he'll provide minimal defensive value, but I think national evaluators will generally be a bit slow in acknowledging a breakout, even if he was reasonably well regarded early in his professional career. It hardly matters at this point though, he'll have his chance to prove it soon. I think an entirely statistically based approach will love his production this season though. The level of both power (ISO) and contact (K%) just aren't seen very often. And of course he just turned 23. I'm going to be very interested to see how ZiPS and some of the other projection systems treat him for next year. I'm still not entirely convinced on Wallner right now given his strikeout rates, though it's been better in the handful of games since returning from the IL. His left-handedness should give him a better chance of succeeding than a RHB with a similar profile though, and his raw power is undeniable.
  23. Good buy low pick. Seems like maybe he'll require a little bit of leftover money if he wants to rebuild his value and can leverage that. I like the idea in the 11th round though.
  24. This front office definitely likes college pitchers with big frames, and he certainly fits that bill. They haven't been able to improve all of them, but we've seen some success with Winder being the prime example, and the potential is certainly there with Hajjar. I expect they will have drafted a few more pitchers that fit that description before the day is done.
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