2wins87

There definitely is a rule that was part of one of the last few CBAs, but I might be missing some of the subtleties. The Angels started a game at 6:29 earlier this year because it was the latest time allowed to the minute. Probably traveling from the eastern to central time zone makes the 7 EST start time allowable. But certainly an afternoon start is typical and would be courteous in this scenario.

Ok, random question that's probably not a big deal, but has been bugging me since I started thinking about it. I remember getaway start times being a topic earlier this season (particularly with the angels having some weird start times). Shouldn't the rules not allow for a night game today with the Twins playing in Minneapolis (more than a 2.5 hour flight) tomorrow? Do the rules just not apply to the Yankees?

I've been fairly high on him and ranked him 11th coming into the season, which was too high in retrospect, but I still like him. He's got legit 70 raw power, but doesn't tend to get the launch angles to turn that into game power as much as you'd hope. Since striking out well over 30% as a pretty raw prospect in rookie and low-A (didn't face tough competition in HS), he's actually improved while moving up to face tougher competition. 28% is still high, but he really improved his approach from his early days as a prospect, and he just turned 23. If he puts everything together he's a 30+ HR guy with a high K rate but a good enough approach to still get on base well over 30% of the time. Kind of the right-handed version of Matt Wallner. The rough start was bad enough to have me doubting that thesis, but he's had nearly a .900 OPS since April, so I once again see the path.

Getting the 2023 or 2024 version of Bradley would have been great. But his stuff has actually backed up quite a bit and I don't know what to make of that. In 2023 and 2024 his 4-seam and splitter both modeled out as around 110 or better in stuff+ models, but this year they are both below average. The cutter was also 108 according to Pitch Profiler in 2023 and 2024, so really only the curveball, still his least used pitch, seems to be getting better while all of his primary pitches have gotten worse. Is his stuff actually "legit"? I don't know, it seems completely average this year. I imagine the Twins have some plans to tweak his stuff to try to get back to where he was, and Bradley having done it before maybe should be encouraging that he can get back. But as it stands today, they traded for a guy with average stuff and poor control, so they are really banking on the idea that they can fix him.

Not that it matters but kind of notable that Lewis and Wallner are still batting just 5th and 6th with 3 guys fresh from AAA in the lineup. Also curious to see what the lineup against lefties is going to be with so many left handed bats on the roster now. Looks like we'll see it on Sunday, but they'll miss Skubal next week. Feel like there would have been a good chance for him to no hit the Buxton-less lineup.

I think I'm in a similar place to many. Many deals were fine, fair value; nothing stands out as a truly "blown away" return; and overall it should have been better. I have a few thoughts on how the process was bad. 1) I think when they were shopping as many guys as they were, teams caught on to that, realized that the Twins were actually quite motivated to sell despite their protestations that they needed to be blown away, and held back on offering too many sweeteners. 2) How could the front office possibly have the manpower to talk with every team about every potential deal, vet all of the potential prospects that they could have gotten, and maximize the value in each deal across all 9 deals they made? They clearly couldn't, so they ended up more just accepting the deals once they reached the threshold they found acceptable. 3) I think they lessened the overall value by focusing on certain guys who are ready to be a part of next years team, and I guess I just fundamentally disagree that the guys that are ready to be a part of the team next year are going to provide much above just being a part of the team. After a little cooling off I think I like many of the returns a bit better than I originally did, but I still think going so big with the selling ultimately set an impossible task that will still make deadline an infamous event for years to come. I think that if they do end up competitive next year, it will be mostly due to stronger performances from the guys that they already have--Lewis, Wallner, Lee, Ober, Matthews or Festa, maybe with big contributions from Jenkins and/or Culpepper too. If that does happen and the one thing holding them back is a ****** bullpen, that will be incredibly annoying. Anyway, guys I like more than I initially thought: 1) Kendry Rojas - I think he compares favorably in many ways to Prielipp, who has been ranked by many as the best pitching prospect. I'm a little less high on Prielipp due to his reliever risk, which is also real for Rojas, and while Prielipp's stuff still grades out better, I wonder how much that matters with the demonstrated effectiveness of Rojas's stuff. Considering age, performance, and relative durability I think I'll put Rojas ahead of Prielipp, and then there is a debate on how much we should dream on Hill and Soto vs Rojas. And for Roden, despite the rough start, I don't see any reason he shouldn't at least be able to basically approximate Trevor Larnach while being paid the minimum, so they can trade Larnach for whatever the can get and in theory invest in the bullpen or something. Makes the Varland trade sting a bit less, but still ill-advised to me. 2) What the Cubs did with Ryan Gallagher is very reminiscent of what the Twins have done with guys like Zebby Matthews. Good frame, good control, add a few MPH of velocity. He probably needs to continue to add velocity and otherwise improve his pitches to really be a valuable pitcher in the majors, but the Twins have been able to do that and Gallagher is already trending in the right direction. Again, comparing to Twins prospects, he could be grouped with guys like Morris and CJ Culpepper, easily slotting ahead if he continues to perform well. Solid return for a rental. 3) Hendry Mendez - I think sub-optimal launch angle is generally less of a problem than an overall lack of exit velocity. Given his age and performance, he just looks like a very solid hitter. Again, solid return for a rental. Guys I still don't get: 1) Outman - He just strikes out a lot. There are guys that can make it work, but the list of guys that couldn't is much longer. It looks like he was a bit lucky in 2022/2023, after which the league adjusted, he regressed, and there are no signs that he's any closer to figuring things out. 2) Bradley - For all the talk about his great potential, his stuff+ has been completely average this year. Combined with terrible location, his pitching+ is only 91, which puts him 104th out of 113 pitchers with 80+ IP. The PitchingBot numbers, for a second opinion, are even worse. So the "great stuff that he just needs to harness" actually seems to have disappeared. He's much more of a project than a return right now.

Ok, any indications that the Twins were just retooling and intending to compete next year were a smokescreen. This is just a fire sale where they are taking whatever they can get.

Ok, I officially hate this one. Stewart has 2.5 years of control still, Outman is still a 4th ourfielder on the Twins and can't even platoon with Larnach and Wallner. That makes no sense.

Feels like a future reliever, though of course I wouldn't advocate moving him to the bullpen too soon. If he turns into a high-end #3 or better that would be a win, if he turns into a closer several years down the line then the trade is a push until the returns on Tait are in. My fear is that there is probably still a decent chance that he turns into another Alcala. Tantalizing stuff, but ultimately never consistent enough.

I think there is a clear trend that the Twins don't rate catchers particularly high as amateur prospects. They aren't the only team, since many highly ranked catchers don't pan out in the pros. So they prefer to take guys with big question marks later in the draft, and it hasn't worked out besides Jeffers so far. I think its an ok strategy but means that they have to supplement from outside the org which they have't done all that well, with Vazquez being the primary misstep. Now they are focusing on trading for catching prospects, which again could be fine if they are getting good value in their trades. I do worry a little bit that by creating such a dearth of catching prospects then trading for need they could be undermining the overall value of their trades a bit. I think this trade is a fine value but does not qualify as "getting blown away" like they were supposedly seeking for their players with multiple years of control. But we'll have to wait and see with Tait and Jimenez to a lesser extent. As far as robo-umps, it seems like the challenge system is coming soon, but the fully automated zone probably won't come anytime soon. Framing will still be important, but could be emphasized less, with challenge decisions becoming another catcher skill. You will definitely be able to find "Challenge Runs Above Average" as a stat once the system is implemented.

There are some things that Duran does very well that he's maintained or improved even when the 4-seam velocity dipping from 102 to 100. 1) He's a ground ball machine: 65% this year, 63% for his career. Jax is 45% for his career, maybe a bit closer to 50% for his seasons as a reliever. I think Duran has improved a bit from an already high mark, probably because his splinker actually works a bit better when it's a couple MPH slower. 2) Very low barrel rate - 3% this year and 4.5% for his career. Jax is at 8.3% for his career, maybe around 7% in his relief seasons. You can dig into xWOBACON, xERA, and other contact related stats to find similar things. Just looking at Jax's gaudy K and xFIP numbers it seems like a no brainer, but digging a little deeper into the contact numbers, Jax has consistently given up more dangerous contact when he does get hit. I don't think it is "luck" at all that Duran has tended to slightly outperform his FIP and xFIP while Jax has tended to slightly underperform, so I'd expect that to continue for the next 2 years too. Overall, I'd still say they are very close both now and projecting forward, so I would just take the best deal. But a lot of the arguments I see about Jax and Duran seem to actually underrate Duran.

Walker Jenkins Showing a bit more power, but still seems more of a pure hit over power guy. Overall performance at AA matching his pedigree though.Luke KeaschallKaelen CulpepperEmmanuel Rodriguez Contact will always be a question, and injuries seem to be a question now too.Charlee Soto Despite the injury, still expect him to have starter level durability.Dasan HillMarek HoustonConnor Prielipp Been very healthy by his standards, but still think being a reliever is by far the most likely future outcome. I wonder if he'd get a few MLB innings this year in the event of a fire sale at the trade deadline.Andrew MorrisBrandon Winokur Has shown the ability to make adjustments at every level while still being much younger than the competition.Gabriel Gonzalez Still all hit with no defensive value, but the offensive potential is once again clear this year.CJ Culpepper Looking quite good in return from injury.Marco RayaRiley QuickKyle DeBarge Cooled off from hot start. Looking more like a speedy utility type than a starter, but still having a good season overall.Billy Amick Lack of power seems to be more launch angle than contact based, which I think is better, but will need to tap into a bit more HR power at some point.Ricardo OlivarDanny De Andrade Quietly having another strong season.Eduardo Beltre Rough start, been better lately.Quentin Young Next 10: Khadim Diaw Kala'i Rosario Noah Cardenas - Still skeptical of the bat based at the MLB level based off the lack of impact prior to this year, but is increasingly looking like a defense-first MLB catcher. Jose Olivares James Ellwanger Payton Eeles Yasser Mercedes Travis Adams Christian MacLeod - Has always been solid to good when healthy, with a bit more sustained health definitely looks like an MLB arm. Haritzon Castillo - Always tough to rank international signings early on, but clearly the top performer so far from the major signings of last year's international class. Playing a decent amount at short too.

I'd scratch Festa's start in St Paul tonight and insert him into the rotation (between Ober and Paddack) for the first game against Toronto. The hope is that Festa and Zebby will be mid rotation guys for several years to come, so I don't see any reason not to have them getting MLB experience in situations like this. I appreciate what SWR has done, but he's still realistically a back-end arm. Festa and Zebby can compete for the last rotation spot when Pablo gets healthy, and SWR is still there if there is another injury or one of them falters badly.

The leg injuries have obviously played a toll, all the awkward looking check swings make that clear. Even if his legs are totally healthy now, he's probably spent too much time compensating and needs to get back to a place where his legs are comfortable and generating power. I can tell his swing doesn't look totally right, though I'm not versed enough to know exactly why, but I've been looking at his bat tracking metrics. His bat speed has been down, though it is ticking back up recently. His average bat speed is now pretty much the same as last year (it was lower a week or two ago) but still down 2 MPH from 2023. His fast swing rate (percent of swings >75 mph) is still a bit down from last year and way down from 2023. This has also ticked up over the last week or so. So I'm hopeful he will find the success again soon, but it's clearly a mechanical issue, not luck, and probably not really his approach at the plate or the way he's being pitched either. He needs to find his swing again.

I feel like it's important to point out that Falvey doesn't make draft picks, Sean Johnson does. Johnson came up with the Twins under Terry Ryan too, so I think there was probably more continuity in the amateur scouting department when Falvey took over than there was in many other areas of the organization. Falvey does oversee the structure and personnel, so I'm not saying he can't be without criticism, but judging him solely on draft results, or especially a single metric like percentage of homegrown WAR, is not a good way to judge his job as GM. I get the feeling that Falvey is very much a delegator in this area too. If you want to call for heads over their drafting, Sean Johnson would have to be the first place to look. If they fired Johnson and Falvey wasn't able to build a better scouting organization, then maybe his seat gets a lot hotter. Overall, the team has been fairly successful since Falvey took over, which is the bottom line for him. I'm pretty confident that their development infrastructure is significantly better than before Falvey took over too. Drafting and scouting-wise, I'm more ambivalent. I don't think they have been perfect at drafting but they seem to have done a good enough job to serve the teams needs, which includes having prospect capital for trades. I do think they've had worse than average luck when it comes to prospect injuries. They could probably be better but I don't think they've been bad.

Luke Keaschall Probably a bit of an over-reaction to his start in the majors; there will certainly still be an adjustment period coming, but proving it in the majors is always the biggest hurdle.Walker Jenkins Slightly worried about Jenkins being another injury prone top prospect. He'll definitely hit, just not how much in game power he ends up having.Emmanuel RodriguezCharlee Soto Good start in A+, it seems his fastball characteristics may have improved a bit. Hopefully the tricep soreness is just them being very cautious, because I have high hopes for him sticking as a starter and being pretty durable.Dasan Hill His stuff is obviously already too good for low-A hitters. Still going to take a while to develop but I'm excited to follow it.Andrew Morris Not getting as many whiffs as I would hope to see, but the basis in strike-throwing, velocity, and pitch mix seem to be there. I think he's at the stage where a series of small tweaks will eventually turn him into a solid major league starter in the next couple years.Kaelen CulpepperBrandon Winokur Seems to be coming around after a cold start. I'm going to continue to be fairly high on him just based on his physical tools.Connor Prielipp Looking very good again, but I can't really rate him as anything other than a relief prospect at this point.Billy Amick Another case where I think I could be overreacting a bit, but he's making solid contact at a higher rate than I would have expected so far this season. The raw power is obviously there so I'm expecting him to start elevating the ball more and the game power to come, something to watch though.Marco Raya Seems to have had a fair bit of bad luck so far this season, but like Prielipp, I can only really see him as a relief prospect at this point.Ricardo Olivar As always, continuing to prove he can hit. I don't expect a ton of defensive value as he'll probably only be an emergency-type catcher and corner outfielderKyle DeBarge Wasn't very high on DeBarge coming into the season so I'm pleasantly surprised with his numbers so far. Seems like a spark plug.Gabriel Gonzalez Not sure how to split the difference between his hot start this year and quite bad season last year. Will need to see how he adjusts to AA, hopefully fairly soon.CJ CulpepperEduardo BeltreAdrian BohorquezYasser Mercedes Still lots of tools, but some yellow flags on how well he'll adjust to higher level pitching.Payton EelesCory Lewis Still lots of different ways for his development to go. Could he turn into more of a knuckleballer or will he stick with it as a secondary? He's gotten by with relatively little velocity so far, but how well will that translate? Honorable mention: 21. Dameury Pena 22. Jose Olivares - big up arrow 23. Danny De Andrade 24. Kalai Rosario - looking much better after a truly brutal start, but still hasn't put everything together 25. Rayne Doncon 26. Carson McCusker 27. Dylan Questad 28. DaShawn Keirsey 29. Jair Camargo 30. Khadim Diaw

Peschl is intriguing. Looks like his slider is just devastating low-A hitters. Seems like he might need to improve his fastball to stay competitive at higher levels, but definitely seems like the biggest pop-up so far.

Looks like I'm kind of late but I'd add Adrian Bohorquez too

Good game by Jeffers on both sides of the ball, he's gotten his pitchers a bunch of extra strikes and had a nice throw on that SB attempt.

Here are the odds that the Twins will get each slot: 1st - 1.09% 2nd - 1.29% 3rd - 1.54% 4th - 1.98% 5th - 2.52% 6th - 3.33% 7-13th - 0% 14th - 66.2% 15th - 20.7% 16th - 1.39% 17th - 0.02% 18th - essentially 0% Total odds of moving up (1-6): 11.7% Total odds of moving down (15-18): 22.1%

I think the odds for Olivar and Rosario are basically flipped. Rosario is a year younger and performed better at AA. Similar defensive value (which isn't much) in both cases. 90% is maybe too high for either. With only Raya as an absolute must, and several spots available, I think I'd protect both.

Wallner improved his plate discipline moving to AA but did so as a 24-year old. Rosario just turned 22 during the last season. Wallner had probably seen thousands more pitches than Rosario has by that stage in his career. Rosario has done quite well while being pushed up the system steadily, and coming in having not faced particularly high level competition in Hawaii. The walk rate dipped against better pitchers this year, but at 14% last year in A+ and 10% this year in AA that's hardly disastrous. Some guys stall out in the upper minors but Rosario still has plenty of time to refine his approach. He'll need to keep improving the plate discipline, but the other issue is that his swing can sometimes generate too much line-drive and ground ball contact. His exit velocities are in the same range as Wallner and Rodriguez, so he's an example where increasing launch angle would definitely actually be helpful. I don't know if he'll put it all together, but I think his potential has tended to be underrated.

All guys that could be good relief arms in the future, but I wouldn't have expectations for any of them to "help" in 2025. Prielipp is the most interesting case with stuff that might play right away if he manages to stay healthy. But outside of Duran, the Twins haven't really had anyone who was immediately good transitioning to the MLB bullpen. It's usually a multi-year process. It took Cole Sands 2 years and he was a better prospect at this stage than all of these guys besides Prielipp. Could see a few of them getting their feet wet, but wouldn't consider them bullpen help until 2026 or even 2027.

15th of 30 in fWar this year and 9th last year. Not including any value Jeffers or Vazquez might have provided elsewhere (basically DH). The catching tandem has been pretty solid overall.

This trade "works" for the Twins if you are resigned to rebuilding. I don't want to get too deep into specific players in hypothetical trades, but as we've seen this year, even top prospects typically have a rough adjustment period at some point. Another young guy bouncing between St Paul and Minneapolis trying to figure things out is not really what the Twins need. They have a few of those, and Alcantara hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball in the high minors either. He's hit pretty well, but a 120ish OPS+ with a 25-30% K rate in AA/AAA probably projects for basically an average-ish hitter in the majors long-term and probably worse in the short term. If payroll is constant from this year, it's not really much fun contemplating this offseason. Falvey & co will figure something out, but a bunch of moves like this couldn't be called anything other than a rebuild. I hope for better, though I honestly don't know what I'd do already bumping up against their payroll restriction with holes still unfilled. If Falvey manages to put together a team that looks better on paper next year it might be a minor miracle.