2wins87

Big picture, I think the front office has done a good job modernizing the organization and maintaining a good farm system while supplementing in the majors. Not sure how much to put on Levine, but I think his overall performance is probably good enough to merit keeping him. Not clear how much of the decision was ultimately Levine pursuing other opportunities. Might have been entirely his choice. In terms of talent evaluation in trades and free agency, it feels like the organization has been pretty average. There have been some very good trades; Joe Ryan easily the best, Odorizzi, interestingly also a fleecing of the Rays, Sonny Gray - I think Chase Petty will be a major league starter, but I doubt he'll be good enough to make the trade look bad. There have been some real flops too. Getting handcuffed by ownership was obviously the main problem last year. In terms of moves where Levine might have been most most heavily involved, the Garver trade with Texas was fairly average. IKF was up and down and wouldn't have been a bad return for Garver if not flipped. Henriquez has not been as good as I think the FO believed (and perhaps still believe). The Gallo signing was not good. I think a GM with a strong scouting background, in the mold of Terry Ryan (20 or more years ago) could be an interesting complement to Derek Falvey. They have player valuation models in place now, and having someone who's good at making the choice between 2 guys when the models say they are basically the same might be an extra edge that they need. Assistant GMs Adler and Zoll seem to be guys who've taken fairly similar paths to Falvey and Levine. Zoll has had some experience in a player development role but I don't think he's ever had a job really resembling scouting. Sean Johnson maybe would fit the bill, not sure how easily he'd transition into the other parts of the role.

Don't get the premise here at all. Why does a catcher need to be at one extreme or another? Why is Jeffers somehow the problem rather than Vazquez, when he's produced better fWAR over each of the last 2 years? If the argument is that catcher defense is not well calculated, fine, but you can't just assume that the catchers with good defense according to metrics would only get better. In fact, if there is a missing component correlated with team wins it would have to be uncorrelated with the metrics already measured, because otherwise the current metrics would just have a greater weight in WAR. Jeffers' defense isn't great but I think it's fine. He had his worst framing year in the majors last year. It could be partly a statistical fluke that will bounce back, but framing also seems to be one of the more coachable catching skills, so I think they can try to refocus on framing next year and if everything else holds up he's easily still starting caliber for a catcher. Vasquez's bat is easily more of a liability than Jeffers' defense. In fact, while not a great metric, Jeffers has had a better catcher's ERA than Vazquez each of the last 2 years handling the same pitching staff. Framing in particular would already be baked in to ERA, so hard to argue his defense/handling the pitching staff has really been a liabilty.

I haven't really looked into the free agent market at all yet, but I think there's a good chance he gets significantly better offers than even 6-7 mil per year. That's Hunter Renfroe and Joey Gallo territory from last year's market. For the Twins, I think biggest issue is that he might not fill the role they really need. Which is someone who can play CF as well as either corner, and probably preferably hit right handed. Kepler should be able to play right field, as well as CF in a pinch, but he's always preferred the comfort of just a single position. Negotiating a FA deal, he won't be in a position to say "I only play right field", so he will probably adapt, but I fear that if he re-signed with the Twins he would expect to be able to just play RF again, and that's not the role he needs to fill on the team anymore. Maybe talking with other teams would at least help him realize that, but his positional inflexibility is his main drawback to me. I would guess that they will have another idea of how to fill out the roster at any rate, and will want the payroll flexibility from him coming off the books to do it.

You can go to Fangraph's roster resource page for the Twins. Anyone with an "Dec' 24" under the options column will be eligible, also those with "R5" were already eligible last year and will be again. Some of the "R5" guys will be minor league free agents as well and might explore minor league contracts with other teams. Probably only Raya is a must protect. Personally, I would strongly consider Rosario too, I seem to be higher on him than most. I would also consider Olivar, who made it through last year but hadn't even made it past low-A. Continuing to hit well in A+ and holding his own in AA should make him more attractive, but he's also older than Rosario and his defense at C is definitely not big-league ready, so it seems pretty doubtful that a team would try keep him on a major league roster as an outfielder. I have a vague sense that the team might like Winkel more than me and most fans, so maybe he'd be a dark horse, though he's still behind Camargo on the catching depth chart. For the other pitchers, I'd also throw out Adams as one to possibly protect. His repertoire, to me, seems closest to that of a major league reliever, so I could maybe see a team stashing him, though probably still doubtful. It's kind of hard for me to see MacLeod getting stashed as a reliever while barely cracking 90 mph, even as a lefty, and Nowlin's control is probably way too far off. There are a few guys like Dobnak, Tonkin, and Duarte that are easy to remove from the 40-man, along with the pending MLB free agents, so there should be plenty of space even for a couple guys beyond Raya, and I think the rule 5 will be pretty much a non-event this year for the Twins.

I generally like Rocco fine too, but the team did still have plenty of talent for him to work with even with ownership fumbling a chance to build on last year. I know the incessant and reflexive "FIRE ROCCO!1!" crowd is annoying, but on one of the main criticisms, that he doesn't really have much fire, I can't disagree. I noticed recently that he hasn't been ejected once this year, a first in his managerial career. It doesn't seem like he bothers to argue about a bad strike zone much either. Does working the umps or making a show to try to fire up your team actually help? I don't know, I'm pretty ambivalent on that, but if it does actually help even a little, it's definitely not one of his strong suits. Bottom line, I do think that sometimes a change just to break the habits and routines can be good. I personally just don't see a compelling reason to keep him (or Popkins) at this point. I'm open to hearing one.

For all the spreadsheets talk, I kind of think Rocco and the FO's worst decisions are usually just not very analytical. Henriquez had a 4.1 FIP and 5 xERA and fewer than 6 k/9 coming into this appearance, and he's a rookie. Not sure why to choose him over basically anyone else in the bullpen in that situation. Not sure why he's on the roster over Alcala. Seems like some scouts must have liked him when they got him from Texas, but he hasn't even been better than mediocre in the minors since they acquired him. Mostly he's been bad in the minors actually. He seems to be one of the FO's guys but I have no clue why.

I kind of think Tonkin is an OK reliever despite being on waivers a bunch. Not sure why he's not a little higher in the heirarchy

Henriquezs fastball is so hittable, don't agree with the call there

Lee's body language... just looks defeated

Thanks, obviously it's something that's been on my mind a bit lately

I think it's 34 straight at bats and 40 PAs dating back to last year. He's walked a few times, but that's it.

I think I can explain where Baldelli is coming from, while I don't agree with it. 30 some PAs is a nothing sample size. People come up with all sorts of dumb splits about hitters based on arbitrary splits with small sample sizes. Player talent is necessarily measured in much bigger samples, hundreds, or preferably thousands of plate appearances. Where this breaks down somewhat is that is that pinch hitting isn't just an arbitrary split. There is good reason to believe that pinch hit at bats are not exactly the same as any other at bat. Conventional wisdom is that coming off the bench cold is hard, and The Book says that pinch hitting has an average penalty of around .024 wOBA, essentially negating your average platoon split. It's a lot murkier trying to determine which guys are truly better at pinch hitting than others, but it's probably reasonable to believe that there are true differences in pinch hitting talent that are independent from overall talent. For Margot, I care more about his 100 career PH appearance more than his 34 appearances this year. And it doesn't get that much better. Prior to this season he had a .584 OPS in PH appearances, and that has dropped to .441 including his 0-fer this season. 100 is still not a very big sample, given 100 more PH appearances, I would easily bet the over on a .441 OPS. But it's big enough that I adjust my priors on Margot; I think his PH penalty is much larger than the average hitter's, I think it's probably large enough that his platoon split against lefties is not that relevant, even if it is a much larger sample. I suspect that Rocco is still weighing the platoon split and overall production more heavily, but I suspect that it's actually as much emotional and psychological as it is stats based. We know that he likes to have his relievers get back into another game soon after a blow-up. I think continuing to PH Margot is probably similar; he will give Margot every opportunity to work through it. Last night he PH Margot and brought in Farmer as a defensive replacement the next inning. He easily could have PH Farmer and then did a defensive switch to bring in Margot. This feels like the no-brainer move to me at this point, but I think Rocco is still thinking about his player's psyches. It seems the players generally like him, and I think stuff like that probably contributes. I agree it just doesn't seem like a good analytic decision at this point, though. I don't even think that saying Margot is 0 for 29 is good analytics, but taking everything into account, I don't see how Farmer couldn't be the better option in pretty much any situation.

The LHP lineup is a lot different with Buxton and Correa though. Cleveland has righties Williams and Bibee lined up for the next 2 games, so I think they end up with around 10 PAs each over the course of the series. Farmer has an OPS over 1.000 over the last month (40 ish PAs). I think he'll contribute.

Not thrilled about giving a couple starts to Irvin, but SWR is looking a little gassed and could use some extra rest. Festa and Matthews are shaky enough as rookies that Irvin doesn't seem like a worse option. If he can help them get into the playoffs a little fresher then he'll have done his job. Whether or not they make the playoffs probably comes down to whether the offense falls back asleep anyway.

Just saw the news that they claimed Cole Irvin. Seems like he will get a start or two. I think pushing Lopez up a day could make sense either way, the only reason you wouldn't is if you really want him to pitch against Baltimore instead of Miami, but that seems like much smaller stakes than lining him up for game 1 or 2. The Irvin pickup might make it easier to line up Ober actually. His normal sport in the rotation would be on the last day of the season. If you figure that he gets pushed back a day wen they insert Irvin, he would instead be lined up for game 1 or 2. I might line it up this way: 9/25 v MIA: Ober 9/26 v MIA: Lopez 9/27 v BAL: SWR 9/28 & 9/29: Planned short starts by Matthews/Festa/Irvin with all-hands on deck in the bullpen if the games really matter. I think you hope that a bullpen-game makes it hard for the Orioles lineup to game plan/see Festa and Matthews too many times. Not really sure there is a significantly better strategy. Hopefully they aren't both must win games. 10/1 (WC Gm1): Ober 10/2 (WC Gm 2): Lopez 10/3 (WC Gm 3 - if necessary): SWR Ober and Lopez are obviously the 2 guys you would choose for game 1 & 2, so I think the order matters less than lining them both up. Maybe they would rather keep Ober lined up for 9/24 and 9/29 if needed. I kind of think he might be the most likely Game 1 starter the way the rotation is currently lined up though.

I'd agree with optioning Julien at this point. Hasn't really looked any better in his second stint this year. Farmer has been hot lately, so it could be an improvement to get him more at bats, even against some righties. The question on Larnach is, I guess, will sitting for two weeks make the difference for his hamstring? Is playing through it making it any worse? He's remained fairly productive playing through it so far and the DH spot is fairly available. Might be risky but I would prefer to have his bat. Really don't think there is much help for the bullpen. I guess the one guy I would consider would be Brent Headrick, who is back from a long absence due to a forearm strain, but he does have a 33% K rate in his limited time at AAA this year. Having another lefty might be more useful than Blewett, Tonkin, and Henriquez. I'd figure out which of the back-end righties you trust the least (I think it's probably Henriquez with his 16% K rate, or maybe Blewett who's not a lot better), and maybe hope Headrick can be a hot hand. Not sure you'd call it bullpen help, but it might be worth a shot. I don't trust Varland yet. I'm hoping if he focusses on being a RP next year, refining and paring down his arsenal, he should be a solid reliever with an upper 90s FB. He's not there yet though.

Catchers can block the plate once they have the ball. Not sure exactly what the nuances are in that situation, but pretty hard for SWR to avoid ending up in front of the plate with his momentum. Hard to say if he had the ball before he blocked the plate. Also looked like Fraley veered inside the line a little before reaching home. Probably would have been less contact if he took the outside line.

It could have been either, but I honestly think the upside between the two is pretty much the same, it's just the attention that Keirsey has gotten this year from fans has been higher. Last year Helman was in a very similar spot to Keirsey, and actually having an even better season, but his own injury prevented him from being available when he might have gotten a call up. He does a lot of the same things that Keirsey does. I think he's still pretty fast and can man center. He's probably got a bit better power. He just hasn't been on the field consistently the last 2 years. He did go to the Dominican to play winter ball and make up for lost time last year, so I'm sure the org values his dedication and rewarding that could have been a small consideration. Mostly I think it's more that fans are sleeping on Helman rather than the Twins are sleeping on Keirsey.

This team doesn't waste time crushing our hopes lately.

Margot should have known where the second baseman was playing because the line drive was nowhere close to him. Still 99% on Watkins but it is another example of suboptimal base running too.

Watkins bailed out slightly, but this should have already been a bigger inning

The rookie pitching for this team has been super impressive, all things considered. The future is bright. Just hard to enjoy it with everything else going off the rails lately.

Ugh. Can't do this again tonight

Kind of unlucky that bounced into the seats. Even slow Jeffers mightve been close to an itphr had that bounced into the corner behind soler

They definitely like to have guys who missed some time go to the AFL. Depending on the timeline for Rodriguez, they might instead opt to have him play winter ball. Olivar is on a similar timeline to a lot of past hitters that they've sent, so I'd add him to the list. He could also possibly play winter ball instead. Hard to guess who they would be willing to send among the pitchers, there usually aren't too many top prospects on the pitching side. Prielipp will not have a lot of innings by the season end but how many more innings does he have left when he's already pitched more than in the previous 3 years combined? I doubt they'd send him. They've been cautious with Raya's innings, but he hasn't missed time and he's already set a new innings max so I'd rule him out. They've been less cautious with Nowlin but he'll be around 100 innings as well. Lewis would make sense. CJ Culpepper is in a similar spot so he could make sense as well. Either of them would probably be the best pitching prospect they've sent in quite some time.