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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    They have a lot of money to use
  2. 2wins87
    Fangraph's final mock has the Twins taking HS pitcher JJ Goss at 39 and HS catcher Ethan Hearn at 54. It would be interesting if they end up taking all high-schoolers with their top 3 picks. There would be a lot of upside there.
  3. 2wins87
    They'll have plenty of time to work on his swing and all of the other aspects of his game.
  4. 2wins87
    The more recently updated boards (like Fangraphs) had him in the low 20s, and he went in the mid teens in a few late mocks, so it's safe to say he had helium. Should probably be a bit underslot, but I'd guess it was between Cavaco and Stott and they like the tools and projection on Cavaco better.
  5. 2wins87
    Cavaco, Interesting
  6. 2wins87
    Law can tend to overstate things a bit sometimes. The Fangraphs guys seem to think that the pitching is average once you get past the top of the draft. There has only has gone in the top ten, so teams haven't really been reaching for pitchers, and it wouldn't be a reach if the Twins went that way with one of the top pitchers available.
  7. 2wins87
    Now Langliers goes #9 to Atlanta. I liked what I heard about him, but he seemed to have a decent amount of helium the last few weeks so unsurprisingly he didn't make it close to #13.
  8. 2wins87
    Jung to Texas at #8. First name often linked to the Twins to go. I was having trouble feeling all that excited about him I think just because he'd be kind of similar to Rooker and Larnach and it's always easier to get more excited about something different.
  9. 2wins87
    This feels like a bit of an ownership lie. According to Forbes they have a 9% debt to value ratio, which is perfectly manageable (less than the Twins). It's hard to believe that they couldn't afford to spend $140 million on payroll again this year and for the forseeable future if they had the will to do so. They actually reduced their debt from 10% to 9% in 2018 (again according to Forbes) with a payroll of $140 million, which given their valuations means that their debt level at the very most was constant in nominal terms, if it didn't drop by a little. I just don't buy it. Most of that money is just becoming profit.
  10. 2wins87
    I'm confused by this hypothetical, were they planning on signing that guy for like $10,000? Presumably they budgeted close to his slot value for him, so when they lose his slot money they also aren't using the money that they would have to sign him. They should still be spending more or less all of their remaining pool money on the remaining players. There is a little bit of overslot wiggle room before the penalties kick in, so unless he was their first pick and they thought they had a big underslot deal on him then they would be very unlikely to be affected by penalties. If a team does go overslot on everyone expecting to be able to negotiate a guy into signing a $10,000 contract which he's unwilling to do then that seems like their own fault and they should be penalized.
  11. 2wins87
    I keep coming back to Toronto when looking at trades. Stroman has already been mentioned, but I'd also be pretty interested in Ken Giles. He's in the same place as Pressly was last year in terms of service time, but will be a little more costly in arbitration so likely would command a slightly lesser prospect package. We know that Toronto is looking to build around Vladito with guys in a similar service class, so basically guys that will be ready by next year. The AA/AAA depth right now looks better than last year, and there are a bunch of guys that could easily be considered redundant while still being interesting in a trade. From a quick perusal of my list: Arraez, Gordon, Alcala, Raley, Smeltzer, Wade, Rooker, Blankenhorn (and maybe Cave too). They could easily take a couple of those guys off the table if they want to work them into their 2020 plans and still be able to present an excellent prospect package to Toronto.
  12. 2wins87
    If you look past ERAs to some more peripheral stats Jax and Enlow look to have about equally good numbers. I've never been particularly high on Enlow, but he's doing fine and is still young. Jax has been good but his top-line ERA number definitely overstates how good he's been. I'd have a hard time putting any of the minor league relievers in a top 20 list, even top 30 given the solid depth of the system right now. Smeltzer, Balazovic, and Sands have been the biggest risers on the pitching side for me this year. All of them have some good reports on their stuff to back up their numbers. Ober would be in that group if it weren't for his continued struggles staying healthy. I'm just cautious about getting too excited if he can't stay on the mound. On the hitting side it's obviously Blankenhorn, Diaz, and Cabbage. We shouldn't be too surprised to see any of them breaking out but they've all been very much more impressive than I expected this year.
  13. 2wins87
    Also one of the dumbest comments ever by the announcer (ok, announcers say a lot of dumb stuff): "He didn't throw it at Lewis he threw it behind him." No, he threw it at him and missed. Idiots all the way down. Glad it didn't get any more out of hand and the Miracle players just got their revenge at the plate.
  14. 2wins87
    Minor league catchers do not and should not catch every day. That's a recipe for retiring due to injuries or just general wear and tear before the age of 30. I do think we will see him moved up to AA sometime around mid-season. I was still somewhat skeptical of him due to his questionable bat before the season, but I am a believer now. He just keeps improving. I wouldn't worry too much about playing time as long as he's making the most of it.
  15. 2wins87
    I think Raley ought to be by now (especially considering the slow starts by so many other guys). I shifted him up to 19th on my own personal ranks after his good spring training, and he's been moving up after he initially had a bit of a slow start too. He's looking like a solid hitter again, hopefully he cuts his K rate down closer to where it was last year. Wiel's still more of a sleeper in my opinion, but he certainly has a shot at the majors. His K rate is still worrying and he's pretty much 1B only, so that makes it pretty tough for him to break through.
  16. 2wins87
    I'm not too surprised at how good the rotations was. I sort of bought the company line that they were going to coach Perez and others into big improvements. Maybe I'm a sucker. The biggest surprise for me has been Odorizzi, since I never felt he was all that great. An under-appreciated story line is that Odorizzi's velocity has actually been up a bit, and I wonder if Wes Johnson is behind it at all. It's only about 1 MPH difference, but if you look at his average velocity at this time in the season from other years he's clearly above the last couple, and possibly throwing as hard as ever in his career. It's something I'm keeping an eye on.
  17. 2wins87
    The injury last year was also elbow related, but evidently it was not serious and he was able to rest his arm a bit and come back strong this year.
  18. 2wins87
    I believe a pickoff gets counted as a CS, so that's the same play. Still, he started out the season 5 for 6 or something like that and has been caught a couple times in a row now. I wondering if his struggles at the plate are causing him to press a little bit too much. I'm not too worried about it too much at lower levels now. It's good for prospects to be aggressive as long as they are learning about reading pitchers and getting jumps. He never had Buxton level speed (who does?), but he should be a pretty good basestealer if he doesn't bulk up too much and lose speed or something
  19. 2wins87
    Poppen is not on the 40-man and he pitched on Saturday, so he's not an option on 3 days rest. He's got pretty good velocity (above average but not plus), his secondary stuff is more average-ish I think.
  20. 2wins87
    Stewart would be scheduled to go for Rochester tomorrow I think. I might prefer him over Littell since he has a propensity for ground balls and fly balls have a propensity to leave Minute Maid Park. I'd have to think that the Twins infield would back him up way better than the Red Wings' has. Littell would be scheduled to go Thursday but will have 4 days of rest tomorrow so he's certainly an option too.
  21. 2wins87
    Scouts never thought he had particularly good stuff and said he thrived on polish vs inexperienced hitters. So that's probably caught up to him a bit at higher levels. Then again the Yankees are unfairly good at developing prospects, so maybe there is something to that too.
  22. 2wins87
    He has a walk rate over 20%. I wonder how many pitches to hit he is getting. He definitely isn't locked in yet but if he's getting pitched around a lot it could make it look worse.
  23. 2wins87
    The first 7 batters to face him all struck out swinging, which is quite impressive. He did get hit hard a few times after that. The same thing happened to him at the start of last year. He had good peripherals in terms of Ks and BBs but got hammered with a bunch of HRs and other extra base hits in his first few starts. I'm not entirely sure what to make of that. It's strange to see a guy have both swing and miss stuff and stuff that gets clobbered at the same time. I guess it could be a result of fringe-average stuff with good pitch-ability, and he just doesn't have as much margin for error as other guys with better stuff. Last year he managed to improve on the hard contact while keeping his K and BB rates about the same and ending with pretty solid numbers. We'll have to see if he can do the same this year.
  24. 2wins87
    No, this year's version of Tyler Wells is Bailey Ober. But Sammons has some nice potential as well. :-)
  25. 2wins87
    When most of the hitters are struggling and most of the pitchers are dominating it's probably a good idea to look at the overall run scoring environments of the leagues that they are playing in. So far, for whatever reason, offense is down in both the Southern League and the Florida State league from last year. It's pretty close to the same in the Midwest league and way up in the International League (further evidence that, yes, the MLB ball was juiced a couple years ago, and at the very least it is a lot better for offense than the minor league ball).
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