2wins87

Archer or Cole--absolutely. We have to be realistic about what kind of pitchers Gonsalves and Romero are. Both Archer and Cole have already reached a higher level than Gonsalves has a ceiling. He has #3 starter stuff, and I'd believe he has the makeup and intelligence to possibly pitch at a #2 level at times, but but Archer is a fringe #1 guy and Cole is a solid #2 with potential to pitch at a #1 level when he's on. As for Romero, he's got #2 stuff with a lot of risk. There's still a good chance he ends up a bullpen arm. I think it's a no brainer if the rest of the asking price isn't too high. I would probably keep Lewis off limits, but anyone else is shippable at the right price. There's just little probability that any of them will have the kind of impact that a front-line starter would. My preference for the starting pitchers that have been talked about would be: Archer, Cole, Odorizzi, Darvish, Cobb, Arrieta, Lynn. Obviously the first three are contingent on what they have to give up to get them, but if they are building for sustained success having a younger cheaper guy is better than signing a big contract for an older free agent. Arrieta and Lynn feel like free agent traps waiting too happen, so I'm not sure I'd really want them at all unless the deals are very team friendly.

I try not to get too exercised over the ordering on these rankings, but like others, I'm trying to get a feeling for the recent pickups, and I just don't see them being as good as indicated by these rankings. I'm not putting any weight on a short season performance, we see a lot of guys look completely different in their second year vs their debut. But from what I've gathered about Pearson and Banuelos they just don't seem like top 20 prospects in this system even though they were much more highly rated in other shallower systems. My baseline for Pearson is Leach. Pearson was rated slightly above Leach on most pre-draft boards, but he ended up slipping to 85 (right around where Leach was rated). He signed overslot for around 63rd pick value. But Leach was picked at 37th and signed for about 49th value. I don't pretend to have special knowledge about either of these guys, but at the very least this tells me that they are in similar tiers, and that the Twins FO actually likes Leach a significant amount more. And I don't see anything in their debuts to indicate that they've significantly diverged yet. I'm sure you could find scouts that like Pearson better but I'm having trouble believing that you could find one who would say he's clearly a better prospect. I'm legitimately curious if there is any sort of scouting information on Pearson (or Banuelos) that suggests that this take is significantly mistaken. It takes me a while to get to know knew additions and I probably often underrate them. But I feel like we got two guys who rank in the late 20's to mid 30's range in our system, not two top 20 guys.

Burdi will still be building up strength from his TJ next year, I don't see any real possibility that he'll make the 25 man roster until 2019.

Yeah, I'm starting to feel like there is getting to be a little fastball saturation. Hitters are seeing more and more high velocity guys, even in the low minors. I sometimes wonder if it actually opens up avenues for guys in different niches to be more successful than they might otherwise be, provided they are really good at their style of pitching of course.

Rortvedt definitely improved in the second half, but even his second half split would be indicative of a marginal MLB bat. That said he is young and evaluators still seem to like his tools a decent amount. I think there are a few examples of catchers that didn't hit great in the minors, but had good defensive tools and managed to steadily improve their bats over time. I have tempered expectations at this point, but I'm definitely not writing him off. I have him around 30, but it's a deep and intriguing system.

Whitefield and Rodriguez seem really high to me based on some of the names behind them. I know Whitefield is still more raw than the typical prospect his age but striking out in over 25% of his at bats in A ball while only drawing walks in 6% would be a red flag for any prospect. I don't think the tools justify a ranking this high. I'd have him closer in ranking to someone like Jaylin Davis. On Rodriguez, I buy giving a guy a little bit of a boost for bloodlines in the lower levels, but he's been at least a year old for his level the last 2 years and he's not blowing away the competition. His stuff projects as back of the rotation starter but he doesn't really have the track record to indicate he's very close to reaching that. I'd easily put Slegers ahead of him for proximity and Tyler Wells and Watson ahead for potential. I'd also have Jax lower but that's more on uncertainty about how much time for development he'll get and if that'll make him fall too far behind.

Agree on Rosario, presumably his defense won't look as bad next year if he just throws to the cutoff more often. He does things that cost money in arbitration (hitting quite a few home runs). Kepler hasn't posted an above average OPS to date. If he improves his on-base average with a bit more power, then yes, he'll cost quite a bit more, but if he has a similar season to the last two he's not really gonna be that much more expensive. I think your contract projection already includes some projected improvement. If he doesn't improve in his third full season expectations will be shifted down somewhat.

8.9% walk rate isn't great but it's not all that bad either. I think deceptive arm slots can easily be underrated in prospects. It definitely upgrades the raw stuff at any level but it's hard to say how much. I like that Hackimer had success against lefties this year, it's the same thing Hildenberger did in 2015. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Hackimer follow the same trajectory as him. I don't know if two right-handed side-armers would be too many for one bullpen, but I think Hackimer has a good chance of being there in another year or so.

I'd like to see JT Chargois and Lamonte Wade in the next couple rounds of voting.

I'd be interested to hear Jeremy's take, but from what I've read there's not much top end catching talent in this draft, so it's hard to see any of them being a good pick at #15 right now. We'll see what happens, but my guess is the Twins won't take any catchers in the first couple of rounds. Obviously the catching position is the thinnest in the Twins pipeline, but I don't see this draft being a good way to remedy that.

In any conversation about Jay I like to point out that he had mostly 2+ inning relief appearances for the Illini. That's not the same as starting, but it's not like the Twins are trying to convert a one-inning-only guy to starter.

Part of his high ranking probably has to do with his frame (he's got 5 or 6 inches on Duensing). With youth, a good makeup, and athletic body it's not unreasonable to expect improvement. We don't know if that'll happen but I think that's why he still gets high ratings among prospect rankers who look beyond numbers. A fastball-changeup combo is a little bit rare mix for a reliever, so it makes sense to keep grooming him as a starter, especially with his body. If he can't put together a breaking ball he might not make the majors but if he does he looks like a pretty solid starter.

Almost every position on this team is filled by a prospect who is pretty exciting for one reason or another. Good reason for optimism

I've been putting together a ranking and have him in the low 30s right now. He seems to have really good plate discipline and contact ability. I wouldn't expect him to have much power at this point, so we'll see what happens there. His K rate was a bit more than half of the next qualified batter in the GCL. That's pretty impressive.

He may get overrated by some, but at the same time, it's easier to dismiss him in a system with a lot of other strong prospects. Steven Moya is a guy with a similar profile in a weak system, and he gets a lot more attention due to the lack of other prospects around him, so I'm not so sure Walker doesn't get a little underrated nationally. Moya isn't in the top 100 at mlb.com and I don't think Walker should be either, but Moya was rated at #100 before the season. Moya doesn't seem any more likely to succeed than Walker and he was only a few months younger in AA, so this seems like a pretty big overrating to me.

I think there are two comparable players that are a little ahead of him development-wise. These are Joey Gallo of the Rangers and Steven Moya of the Tigers. They have different minor league track records, but all have somewhat similar size, power, and hitting profiles. They're in a little bit different places on the spectrum of plate discipline and contact issues; this site (which unfortunately seems to have broken in June) has data on things like whiff%, in-zone and out-of-zone swing%, etc., which is interesting to compare. Gallo seems to have better plate discipline but worse contact issues than Walker, and Moya seems to be the other way around. For comparison, Sano seems to have both better plate discipline and better contact rates, which makes sense. Gallo was much younger than the other two in AA so is maybe a less fair comparison. Neither of them have very good numbers in the majors so far, but both are good enough that they'll get plenty of chances to improve. Walker should too, but may have a harder time breaking in due to stiffer competition on the Twins roster. I would also say that the improvement in his walk rate has been under-appreciated. I personally don't give him a great shot at being much more than replacement level in the majors, but he's working hard on his approach at the plate and it seems to be showing. We ought to give him credit for that. I think he's appropriately rated on average, but has been one of the most divisive prospects in the forum. People who just look at the strikeouts and say he has no shot against major league pitchers are underrating him. People who just look at the home-runs and expect him to continue to do that in the majors are probably overrating him. The majors are definitely tougher on guys who rely on one big tool, but he will hit still hit home runs and he will still strike out a lot. I think it's really hard to say whether he'll be able to strike enough of a balance, but right around 8-10 among Twins' prospects is a reasonable rating.

A couple guys that I think should be in the top 50: Luis Arraez, Jean Carlos Arias, and Huascar Ynoa. Obviously they are all very young and hard to project, but their upside should get them on the list. I'd also include Eades who was mentioned in a previous thread. He's disappointing for where he was drafted but he had a nice season and still has a good chance of playing in the majors.

They could have traded for more pool money. I would have liked to see them sign one or two more players for relatively sizeable amounts, but if there really wasn't anyone they thought was worth the money/trade value then I'm not broken up about it.

Gibbons is a bit of a surprise to me, he's barely been on my radar until now. Any more information on what got him ranked this high? How are his curve and changeup? 93 mph is nice and all but he better have a nice secondary offering to back it up with.

He's also got a very low K-rate (12% between the GCL and APPY). Guys who make a lot of contact tend to walk less because they often put the ball in play (or over the fence) before the count gets very deep. I'm not saying his BB rate is where it should be, but his combination of power and contact ability is pretty rare and worth getting excited about.

I imagine Tyler Jay wasn't there long enough to qualify? It's a little interesting to see Vielma not too far behind Stewart and Gonsalves. I guess you have to respect someone who can play plus defense at SS. His bat has shown a little improvement too.

I haven't really really payed too much attention to the Nationals for the past few year, but reading the comments from Nationals fans about the incident, there does not seem to be any dissatisfaction with Harper's general hustle and work ethic. Maybe Harper is getting a pass for being supremely talented, but with the level of talent in the MLB today, I have a hard time believing that anyone could be talented enough to play better than anyone else without putting in the work. The issue of hustle seems to be a small part of the bad blood between Harper and Paplebon anyway. It seems a lot more likely that Paplebon was upset by Harper's remarks after Paplebon hit Machado with a pitch that was very likely intentional (and only missed hitting Machado's head due to the fact that his shoulder was in the way). Harper called it tired and he's right, throwing baseballs at guys for perceived showboating is tired and it's bad for the game. Certainly Harper's ego didn't help to diffuse the situation, but Paplebon is not being a veteran leader calling out a young player, he's a 34-year-old picking a fight with his new teammate for his own selfish reasons. The best take I've read on the situation is probably from this wapo article which points out how jarring the incident is to young fans. Players jog out pop flies all the time, and I have a hard time believing that it leaves any kind of impression on kids watching the game. What does leave an impression are things like beanballs, which teach that it's ok to retaliate with violence if you feel you've been upstaged. And certainly a superstar being attacked in the dugout leaves an impression and is terrible for the game.

Yeah, my understanding is that the authors that compile the league and team lists pretty much determine the order themselves, and obviously are talking to different scouts as well. The top 100 list that comes out at the end of the process is more of a group process, so there will be some discrepancies. Good to see Palacios making appearances on both of these tough. I think he's gotta be in the Twins top 20 this year.

I'm talking full season Dozier, who we should expect to be a 3-4 win player as he's been over the last 2 seasons, which is a tall order for a rookie with inconsistent defense and so-so plate discipline. That's not meant to be a dig on Polanco. He's got a great hit tool and really good defensive tools too, but moving a proven veteran for an unproven prospect is a good way of finding yourself with a near contender with a gaping hole.

I know the guys who have already moved off short to 2B aren't quite as exciting, but I'll echo Levi Michael as a guy who's finally come around and could end up as a solid depth guy, and also mention Luis Arraez as another exciting long term guy. I don't think moving Dozier this offseason would be wise since I don't think Polanco or anyone else is very likely to match his production next year, and the plan should be to be as competitive as possible next year. After next year, the timing might be more apt, but Dozier looks to be an important part of the 2016 Twins who should be postseason contenders, why break that up?