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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    This might be kind of telling since it seems that righties would be more able to pick up his grip from their angle in the box whereas lefties would be more blocked by his body. The evidence from Parker is certainly suggestive. I don't know if this is his main issue but it seems plausible.
  2. 2wins87
    He does get a lot of pop-ups so the damage on fly balls isn't as great for him as other guys. Being such a tall guy he probably has a higher release point than most guys which will cause hitters to get underneath his pitches a bit more. I wouldn't be surprised if he maintains a lower HR/FB rate than the league average even as he moves up. Chris Young is an example of a guy who was able to do this at the major league level (Chris Young was also a freakishly tall 6'10"). 25% of his flyballs have been harmless pop-ups this year. 31% were last year in single A. I would keep an eye on that number as he moves up, but I'd argue that his batted ball profile could be an advantage for him. He might give up more home runs than other guys, but hopefully less than expected per flyball hit against him. Given that BABIP is so low on flyballs that stay in the park, he could really limit baserunners given the solid control he's demonstrated so far too.
  3. 2wins87
    Just for fun, here's my attempt at a top 40: 1. Lewis (1) 2. Kirilloff (2) 3. Graterol (3) 4. Gordon (4) 5. Wade (12) 6. Rooker (7) 7. Larnach (6) 8. Baddoo (8) 9. Gonsalves (5) 10. Javier (10) 11. Thorpe (14) 12. Rortvedt (15) 13. Cave (28) 14. Blankenhorn (13) 15. Enlow (11) 16. Severino (16) 17. Pearson (19) 18. Jeffers (18) 19. Tyler Wells (27) 20. Arraez (20) 21. Miranda (21) 22. Curtiss (30) 23. Littell (10) 24. Jay (25) 25. Moya (33) 26. Sands (NR) 27. Vasquez (NR) 28. Diaz (17) 29. Stewart (23) 30. Leach (22) 31. Balazovic (31) 32. Keirsey (34) 33. Slegers (36) 34. Astudillo (NR) 35. Granite (29) 36. Davis (39) 37. De La Torre (38) 38. Moran (NR) 39. Jax (26) 40. Bechtold (32) The next few would include: Watson (35), Anderson, Reed, Bard, Poppen, Mack, Arias, Whitefield (40) and Wiel I don't pretend to know anything special about any of these guys. I like to give a lot more weight to performance in the upper levels for hitters (Wade, Cave). I think pitchers are almost all a bit of a crapshoot, but I do have a strange affinity for freakishly tall ones (Wells). I think Vasquez is probably the most overlooked prospect at this point, absolutely should be somewhere in the top 40. It's also hard for me to understand why Cave is so low after showing good defense and a definite chance to be an above average MLB hitter with decent pop.
  4. 2wins87
    The only thing I can think of would be that they want him working with a specific coach on defense. I was fine when they left him behind and promoted Kirilloff a month ago since his power and plate discipline numbers seemed to be a bit behind his high batting average at that point. But since then he's really been driving the ball a lot more with more walks and fewer Ks to go along with it. I have to believe his promotion is coming any day now.
  5. 2wins87
    Agreed. He seems to have ironed out his early season walk issues to the point where his peripherals are starting to look pretty crazy good again. He should be moving up lists quickly.
  6. 2wins87
    Looking forward to seeing Larnach's debut. If there is just one difference in draft strategy for the new FO it's a much bigger focus on scouting and drafting impact college bats. So far it seems like they've done their diligence. I wonder if there is a more analytic approach to the college guys or if it's just more weight on traditional scouting report for college bats.
  7. 2wins87
    I don't want to be down on Littell, but I was pretty discouraged by his appearances in the majors. It basically tracked with the scouting reports that his minor league results are ahead of his raw stuff, but his fastball control was really lacking and his breaking balls got very few whiffs. The fastball control could be partially written off to nerves. I don't recall seeing the changeup at all, so maybe he deploys it more often to be effective in the minors. But I do wonder about the grades on his breaking balls, MLB hitters seemed to have no problem laying off of them out of the zone and hitting them in the zone. Obviously we can't write him off after two appearances but I'm not sure what to think about him right now.
  8. 2wins87
    On the bonus pool situation, it's worth noting that there are a few teams who are unable to spend more than 300K on individual international signings due to overspending penalties from previous years--notably Oakland and Cincinnati who each have $6M pools. So they could definitely work out some deals to expand their pool if they are chasing a few other big signings.
  9. 2wins87
    I'm aware and that's not what I was saying. I would assume Larnach starts in Elizabethton for a couple weeks before moving on to either CR or Ft Myers. I would think Ft Myers would be more likely given his advanced bat.
  10. 2wins87
    Probably not actually a very unpopular opinion on these boards. There was probably more skepticism on Diaz than any other player in the top 20 coming into this season. This has so far been his worst season in the professional ball too, so I'd expect that his stock is dropping among scouts as well.
  11. 2wins87
    I think getting Cole Sands in the 5th round was a great value for that late in the draft. He and Keirsey both have pretty nice upside for where they were picked. There really wasn't much room for creativity this year, but from what I've learned about the picks so far I think they did a decent job of getting as much potential impact as they could with the picks they had.
  12. 2wins87
    I wouldn't rule out Larnach taking a similar developmental path as Rooker last year, and skipping Cedar Rapids entirely. If they sign him quickly after Oregon State is done at the national championships he could start playing with one of the affiliates with basically no break in action. I think Rooker had a 2 week break last year.
  13. 2wins87
    I think Felix Jorge last year too? Was the RP Curtiss? They haven't done it with any top prospects yet I guess. It's only been a year and a half thoughh.
  14. 2wins87
    Besides #2 (ish) prospect in the system Nick Gordon?
  15. 2wins87
    Vasquez is probably the most puzzling to me. He pitched in the AFL and had a couple appearances in AA this year, but they're having him dominate in A+ where he's old for the league. Presumably they think he could be an MLB player since they sent him to the AFL last year, but if he's going to pitch in the majors you'd think they'd want him in AA as a 24 year old.
  16. 2wins87
    Another consideration on Lewis, will his defense at SS be good enough for them to actually play him there in the majors if he's knocking on the door by the end of next year? I think the faster his bat moves up the more likely that he'll end up a centerfielder (or somewhere else in the outfield, given that Buxton should still be in center then).
  17. 2wins87
    From the two videos of parts of his start that I can find: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0vU8SYUFR8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuvyKtNB22Y I don't think my eye for this stuff is that great, but his fastball looks like it has a little run but is overall fairly straight. I can't tell if he's mixing in any two seamers. The slider command looked pretty great though. Got at least two called strikes and two swinging strikes on it in the second video.
  18. 2wins87
    I've definitely been cautiously optimistic for at least the last two years and I think the case for him is only getting stronger. Carson Cistulli at Fangraphs has a regular Fringe Five feature which tends to be populated with guys that have strong statistical profiles but lack top prospect type tools. Wade certainly fits this profile and has indeed been featured several times. Earlier this year Cistulli checked up on the success of the 10 most frequently featured players from 2013 and 2014 and as a group their performance was somewhat similar to what you might expect from the group of guys ranked somewhere in the middle of the top 50 prospects in baseball. There are sample size issues with Cistulli's group, but I think the overall point that it's definitely possible to identify guys who are more likely, based on their stats, to over-perform their scouting consensus seems valid. Wade obviously isn't at Betts level in 2013, but I think there's some fair room for him to over-perform and eventually get more notice from scouts too. I like to keep a kind of running prospect board for Twins prospects during the season and I have Wade ahead of Rooker at this point
  19. 2wins87
    With all the prospect love going around someone has to mention Lamonte Wade who's now tied for second in HR among all Twins affiliates. All while keeping the same crazy good plate discipline numbers. I'm more and more convinced that he can be a good major league hitter despite his lack of a carrying tool.
  20. 2wins87
    I don't really remember exactly how good their stats looked, but 2013 had Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Gibson, Berrios, and May all in the minors (along with Arcia who busted, Stewart who's still a question mark, and Meyer who might have been finally putting things together in Anaheim before getting injured).
  21. 2wins87
    On the Lewis vs Graterol question, I have a clear bias towards the position player unless the pitcher clearly has more talent (which could happen after their seasons are fully evaluated). Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have talked about this multiple times over at Fangraphs, but looking at the realized value from past top prospects, the position players have a clear advantage and the reason is basically just injuries. Fingers crossed on Graterol, but it's just a lot harder for pitchers to stay on the field consistently, leading to less value over time. Given usage trends, the position player will probably tend to get more opportunities to impact the game than the pitcher anyway, even if the pitcher stays healthy.
  22. 2wins87
    His K rate has been inching down from 35-40% to closer to 30% over the past few weeks. His splits for May so far actually look great with a 24% K rate and an .868 OPS. Keeping up numbers somewhat close to that over the rest of the season would definitely justify the hype that built around him last year.
  23. 2wins87
    About 16%, which is pretty solid; well below average for the league.
  24. 2wins87
    Stewart has struggled with his K/BB ratio for a while, but he has consistently been a guy who induces a lot of groundballs vs flyballs. BABIP will tend to be higher on GB, though slugging (and obviously HRs) will be higher on FB. He might be the kind of guy who can give up quite a few hits but usually limit the damage. I'm mostly just watching his K/BB rate this year, and while I'm not ready to put him back among the top prospects in the organization, I am pretty encouraged so far that he may still actually have an MLB future.
  25. 2wins87
    I've got $150K for Graterol, though I couldn't tell you where any of the contract notes I have jotted down came from.
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