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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    Yeah Lynn came in pissed about his off-season negotiations and never wanted to play for the Twins when they had him. No need to bring that energy back. Their pitching depth looks to be replenishing now anyway. Knock on wood they won't really need another arm in the rotation.
  2. 2wins87
    As others have said, the Twins left-handed (and switch) hitters are no slouches. Non-issue.
  3. 2wins87
    I expect a minor move when Hill goes on the 60 day DL. Basically a small guarantee to a veteran pitcher, who will compete with Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Graterol during spring training, and may or may not make the 26 man roster when the season starts (and will be able to sign elsewhere if he does not). I think Falvey and Levine are comfortable relying on their development of rookies, though their MO during the last few years has been to add depth as a backup.
  4. 2wins87
    Yelich was already a very good player in Miami, this article understates his talent quite a bit. Here's an age by age comparison: Age 21: Yelich - 118 OPS+, 1.8 fWAR; Kepler - Minors Age 22: Yelich - 118 OPS+, 4,1 fWAR; Kepler - -34 OPS+, -0.1 fWAR Age 23: Yelich - 120 OPS+, 2.4 fWAR; Kepler - 93 OPS+, 1.3 fWAR Age 24: Yelich - 134 OPS+, 5.4 fWAR; Kepler - 94 OPS+, 1.5 fWAR Age 25: Yelich - 117 OPS+, 4.6 fWAR; Kepler - 98 OPS+, 2.7 fWAR Age 26: Yelich - 166 OPS+, 7.6 fWAR; Kepler - 121 OPS+, 4.4 fWAR The main difference is that Yelich has always hit the ball incredibly hard. Every year that statcast tracks he's been in the top 10% of the league for average exit velocity, usually in the top 5%. Kepler has never been in the top 10%. Not to rag on Kepler who became an excellent player last year, but he basically only reached the level of player that Yelich was in Miami, and I don't see how he reaches present day Yelich territory without increasing his exit velocity by several MPH or making some other drastic change in his contact rate and/or plate discipline, and I don't know how that happens.
  5. 2wins87
    Biggest major league surprise has to be Polanco, who has been excellent despite never gaining much national recognition as a prospect. Biggest MLB bust is probably Meyer, though that was in large part due to injury. Jury is still out on Gordon and Stewart, though they are looking like busts too.
  6. 2wins87
    Kepler was only ranked in the national publications one year, and Gordon was ranked essentially just as high as Kepler's BA ranking by both mlb.com and BP at some point. Gordon was more highly regarded as a prospect for longer, maybe it was never correct but it was true. Gonsalves never really ranked very highly nationally, so I would probably bump him to the honorable mentions to put Graterol somewhere on this list, who will probably be ranked in the 30-50 range for the second consecutive year.
  7. 2wins87
    Obviously depends on what the development staff thinks, but if there's any chance that he'll be better than Dobnak or Thorpe as a starter to begin the season, then they have to try that out. We already know Pineda will be out and the back of the rotation is still very unsettled. There is no reason to hold back at the beginning of the season because of an innings limit. If he is good enough to get the innings he could be a very good part of the bullpen after Pineda comes back and potentially be an injury replacement later in the season.
  8. 2wins87
    You would have had to tell them to up their bid by $4 million to 2/16 also. It seems the Braves are getting their shopping done early, and either they are overpaying or everyone has overreacted to the last two years and the contract estimates this year are too low.
  9. 2wins87
    It sounds like he's going to get a pretty good deal based on the number of teams interested, and that makes me think it won't be the Twins that sign him. I hope he gets paid and pitches reasonably well, but as I've learned more about ulcerative colitis I've realized that it's probably something that continues to come back to affect his pitching from time to time, and could affect his overall level also if he's not able to keep to his training regimen. I think there's going to be too much risk for the price he's going to get.
  10. 2wins87
    Berrios is probably the one where I might feel really motivated to get something done. I tend to think that his career is going to be fairly Radke-esk, but hopefully productive for longer. By which I mean, very good, de facto #1 starter on the team, but never quite getting to that national ace level as one of the best pitchers in the game. But I also tend to forget how young he still is given how many innings he's already pitched with the Twins. If they don't work out an extension, he's going to be just 28 when he does hit the free agent market in a couple of years (younger than anyone this year), in which case he'll be in line for a really big contract. Probably not necessarily the biggest AAV, but some team might easily think about going in on an 8 year deal for him. It'd be nice to be able to lock him up for a few of those years where he's still in the middle of his prime, but it will probably also incentivise his side to drive a hard bargain, so I don't see them getting as incredible deals as they did for Kepler and Polanco.
  11. 2wins87
    That is, by definition, better than a replacement player. It was a down year for him, I wasn't thrilled with it either, but there's little reason to expect him to get even worse next year given his age and history. The projections will be for him to be a shade above a 2 WAR player, which is starter level. There's probably a good portion of the fanbase that views him as better than he ever really was, but there seems to be a massive overreaction in the other direction too. Go year to year with him. I think he could definitely be a non-tender candidate next year, but he's still a reasonable value right now. Even a powerhouse like Houston still has an averagish guy like Marisnick filling out their roster.
  12. 2wins87
    I find myself coming to a Wheeler/Ryu combo a lot trying to play out various scenarios. I feel like a little more should be done to shore up the bullpen to really make them a playoff contender. Despite what we saw this year, I would predict that in the next few years most world series teams will get there in part by having great bullpens. My plan might opt for a veteran guy with a solid bat (Mitch Moreland or Justin Smoak - or maybe Howie Kendrick) for a 1 year 5 million or so contract rather than spending 14 million on Encarnacion. This would allow them to pick up a solid lefty (Pomeranz or Diekman?) and/or someone like Will Harris (who was very good despite the one really memorable critical moment).
  13. 2wins87
    Not sure they will be ready to plug Graterol into the rotation on day 1, but I'd much rather see him in the starting rotation long term. I don't see Dobnak being a particularly good starter long term, but his stuff could play up in a bullpen role like Littell's this year.
  14. 2wins87
    If they want someone that can be platooned with Garver the lefty hitting free agents are: Castro, Alex Avila, Stephen Vogt, and Brian McCann Matt Wieters is also a switch hitter.
  15. 2wins87
    Raley has actually played a little bit of CF each of the last few years. I wouldn't put his defense above Cave or Wade there, but I also wouldn't judge his defensive profile just based on his offensive profile; he's got some sneaky athleticism and is a much better defensive outfielder than Rooker.
  16. 2wins87
    I'm excluding Vazquez since the GM has been pretty explicit about him not being available. I'll include the Giants' guys because who knows if they'll be traded. 1) Ken Giles - Definitely moving, definitely good 2) Kirby Yates - I think the Padres hold on to him if they don't get a ridiculously good offer 3) Will Smith - Will he be available? 4) Sam Dyson - Ditto 5) Scott Oberg - Haven't seen him talked about, but the Rockies should definitely be selling now and he's cheap and controllable 6) Raisel Iglesias - Not sure if he's moving, but the Reds ought to be shopping him, also hasn't pitched to expectations so far 7) Shane Greene - If home runs continue to be an issue the ERA won't continue to be so low 8) Alex Colome - Has been lucky like Greene, but still a decent option 9) Ian Kennedy - His home run rate is way down to the point where there's probably a lot of luck involved, he's also old and expensive next year 10) Cam Bedrosian - Angels are almost back into a race, but they still ought to sell 11) Tony Watson - Could be a LOOGY pickup, but again, will the Giants sell? 12) Seth Lugo - With 3 more arbitration years left, I think the Mets ask for a lot in return.
  17. 2wins87
    The Pirates GM has also explicitly stated multiple times that Vazquez won't be traded. As always, it could be posturing, but Vazquez isn't on my list for that reason.
  18. 2wins87
    I have a feeling that the trade value for a previously marginal guy in the midst of a breakout year will tend to lag a bit behind his talent, although in his case, the power is totally apparent even without scouting report. Maybe there is a team that really likes him, but I'd guess he's not a major piece in a trade right now, so I'd be inclined to give it more time to see what they've got with Davis.
  19. 2wins87
    I agree, since any of the slot money remaining for guys that haven't signed would cease to exist if they ultimately failed to sign them. I don't think this is likely to happen. My quick math says they've saved a bit over $400K. I could see some of it being needed for 5th round pick Holland and later round pick Julien, but there are probably still some savings to be made on some of the other second-day guys and I'm not sure where it'll all go. They didn't even draft many high schoolers in the late rounds.
  20. 2wins87
    The two HR highlights I've seen were pretty much right down the middle. I think the bigger question is how much is he swinging at stuff outside the zone. MLB pitchers just threw him progressively worse and worse pitches and he never stopped swinging at them. Hopefully he was laying off of pitches outside the zone before those homers, if AAA pitchers are just throwing him more stuff in the zone then I'm not sure how much work he's getting on the thing he needs to improve most. As a third catcher he's still a pretty great asset to have though.
  21. 2wins87
    A good shorthand for projecting these types of bonuses is to look at the next team they would have likely fallen to and splitting the difference between the two slot values. There were a number of teams that were in on him in the first round, most notably the Angels at #15 probably would have taken a hard look if he were available. That's more or less exactly where his bonus ended up (the midpoint between the two slots is $4.04M).
  22. 2wins87
    6'4" 175 is a string bean. I assume he's above his listed weight. Did he look bigger or is he really that skinny?
  23. 2wins87
    A rare throws left, bats right combo too. Not that he's likely to ever hit as a pro.
  24. 2wins87
    Two so far, Gross is a 5th-year red-shirt senior. I don't think they've saved all that much money. Cavaco could probably be a bit under and some of the college juniors too, but I think they'll mostly sign near slot.
  25. 2wins87
    Starting to wonder how they're going to field a GCL team given the limit on players over the age of 21 or whatever it is.
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