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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    How does adding a 6th starter give Balazovic or Winder a shot at more innings though?
  2. 2wins87
    This move seems perfectly calibrated to maybe allow them to get to the playoffs but definitely ensure that they don't win any playoff games.
  3. 2wins87
    I get it but I don't really like it. The value is skewed toward having the longer control on Paddack and Pagan versus Rogers. But they are giving up their bullpen anchor for this year in order to receive rotation depth and bullpen depth. They also clearly don't really believe in ace relievers and think they can build a solid bullpen out of spare pieces. They may be right about that as we've seen, but we also saw last year they can spend enough time losing games due to failed experiments that it might not matter once they figure out which spare pieces are actually good. Sure there may be upside for Paddack, but most likely he will be a mid to back end starter. It's depth for the upcoming years but I think it would be overly hopeful to say that this won't make them worse this year. Fangraphs depth charts projects the rotation and bullpen WAR before this trade to be 9.7 and 3.4 respectively. We'll see what happens after they shuffle around the expected roles, but I don't see Paddack projecting to do much better than Archer, and I don't see Archer or whoever else gains bullpen innings making up even half of Roger's value.
  4. 2wins87
    I'll never understand how this misspelling is still so common after Rogers has been with the Twins 6 years. There is literally only one famous "Rodgers" for the dozens of famous "Rogers" in film, television, sports, or whatnot.
  5. 2wins87
    You should read their explainer, there's a lot of work that went into it and most front offices use pretty similar models, though they could differ quite a bit on certain inputs. The short answer is that Rogers is only under control for one more year and is already making a salary of 7.3 million. The 7.2 million valuation is his excess value over this one year of control. His total valuation would be 14.5 million for this year. Paddack would be under control for 3 years, is only owed 2.3 million this year, and is likely to earn raises in arbitration up to a point that is probably similar to Rogers for his final year. The 17.4 million valuation is his projected excess beyond those salaries over the total 3 years of control. Probably around half of that would be from this year since his salary will go up. So he's probably expected to be worth about 9 or 10 million per year for each of the next 3 years. That's a pretty middling projection, and the projections clearly indicate Rogers is expected to be worth more this year. Paddack only has more value because of his years of control and cheaper salary. The Padres might want Rogers, but it would clearly make the Twins worse and I hope the front office isn't seriously considering trading him if Paddack is the main piece coming back. I would also hope that someone like Winder or Balazovic could at least perform similarly to Paddack in 2023 and 2024, so I don't really see why the front office should be so interested in Paddack's value those years. He seems like a mid rotation arm at best. They have about half a dozen prospects in AA and AAA that project to be somewhere around there.
  6. 2wins87
    Buxton being a legitimate MVP candidate but not making the over on 26.5 HR strikes me as a very odd take. The power has been central to his breakout. He's not going to suddenly turn into a super patient OBP guy, he's going to be aggressive and try to hit the snot out of the ball. If the results are similar to the last few years he'll only need to get to 400 or so PA to beat the over. Whether he stays healthy enough seems to be the main question to me.
  7. 2wins87
    Looks like a lot of competition for the starting pitcher spots. Canterino, Funderburk, Gross, Sammons, Schulfer, Vallimont, Varland, Woods-Richardson. A few of those guys are probably destined for the bullpen long-term anyway, and I'm not sure what kind of workloads Canterino and Woods-Richardson in particular will be able to handle. Probably some piggy-backing and quite possibly a 6 man rotation to start the season though. Interested to see what Cruz does out of the pen. I don't pay too much attention to relief prospects before they make it AA, but you gotta be excited about the velocity.
  8. 2wins87
    Oh, and the other move could be moving Enlow to the 60-day IL, but since they haven't already done that we can presume that he's expected back sooner than that and it wouldn't make sense to mess with his development.
  9. 2wins87
    On the other side of the coin, the list of candidates to be removed from the 40-man roster is pretty thin. I think maybe Stashak would be the most likely. His stuff has always been fringy relying on good command; it's been a while since we seen him be effective, and I don't think his command has been that great this spring. They could decide they have better options, he does still have two option years though so he just needs to be valuable enough to stash. The two bubble guys without options left are Nick Gordon and Jharel Cotton. Seems like Gordon's defensive utility would still be enough for him to keep his job, and they liked Cotton enough to add him to the roster during the offseason, so I don't see them giving up on him before they've seen him for a few months in regular games.
  10. 2wins87
    This is interesting and I am kind of starting to buy it. I think it's definitely true that they pay a lot of attention to secondary characteristics, probably more than the average team. Another way of looking at the Ynoa, Gil, and Petty trades is that they are much more willing to part with high variance pitching prospects early in their development. Probably in part they are making larger injury discounts on these valuations compared to other teams. This would also correlate with velocity and would also be a factor in their valuations of free agents and their valuation of a near MLB ready guy like Graterol, though it would probably be most pronounced for young arms. I still think for free agent pitchers the main factor is probably just the obvious philosophy that many have pointed out in that they don't give out large contracts and especially don't give out long contracts.
  11. 2wins87
    I would also hope that they would at least be considering an extension as well. Locking up more years in his late 20s would certainly tip the long term balance of the trade further towards the Twins side.
  12. 2wins87
    The Fangraphs team seems to be more optimistic on him as a starter than pretty much everyone else (BA had him 29th on the Ranger's list). I do get slight Berrios vibes when they talk about his athleticism and confidence in him being able to handle the workload despite his size. My first impression is probably that he fits in the mid teens in the Twins prospect list, and he'll still need to improve his secondaries to really have a shot at starting.
  13. 2wins87
    I've mentioned this somewhere before but Jeffers did post an .800 OPS in June and July when given primary catching duties due to Garver's injury. I'm not saying I really expect him to come that close to replacing Garver's bat, but I do think a lot of people have been overly down on his bat when he's been really hampered by being forced into a platoon disadvantage so much. The main question really is whether they get enough value back for parting with Garver's bat. I doubt Kiner Falefa will quite get there. He does make pretty consistent contact, so maybe there is a chance that there is a tweak that allows him to get to some power and maybe 15-20 HR in a year. His build doesn't suggest much more power, but he is still pretty young. Most likely they will have to hope to get something out of Henriquez as well. Of course Garver has a few question marks too. He was probably going to be catching less with the Twins going forward, and is not guaranteed to be able to keep catching full time with some significant injury history now and the fact that he's already well past 30. He'll be much more replaceable if he does end up at 1B/DH as much as at catcher in the future, and they still have plenty of guys vying for some time in those roles. I don't love the trade, but I think it's defensible, and certainly there's a chance it works out great on the Twins side, maybe a better chance than it turning out really poorly actually. We'll see.
  14. 2wins87
    I think the separation for many would probably be that Wallner can probably play a passible corner outfield and is also left-handed, which could make him the bigger half of a platoon. The K% numbers for Wallner are especially scary though, so I would tend to agree with you. Not that Sabato's numbers are that much better, but I would still give him a slightly better chance of being able to handle high level pitching at this point.
  15. 2wins87
    Picks to click: Probably the most similar narratively to Miranda would be Misael Urbina, who put up plate discipline numbers far above his overall numbers. He's different in that he really needs to develop just any semblance of power rather than tap into what he has more effectively. The rest of the tools are there though to make a big jump if he can add some strength and hit the ball with more authority. As more of a sleeper I'll take Jeferson Morales, whose offensive performance last year still seems pretty unappreciated. He'll have to show the chops to stick at catcher to really rocket up the rankings, which is probably my biggest reservation. For pitchers I really can't pretend to have any sort of special insight, but I'll take Cade Povich. He seemed to take to the Twins' coaching in instructs exceptionally quickly, so hopefully that will bode well for his development going forward. He could be the lefty to supplement that big group of right handers. I'll also buy Sabato's late power surge and predict he can work his way back to top-ten bubble status. Hard for him to really rank much higher though as a RH 1B only type.
  16. 2wins87
    Here's a list of recent players with somewhat similar batting profiles in the upper minors. Personally I love the power/contact combo (12.4% K/.228 ISO). It's pretty rare, probably the next closest recent Twins prospect was Max Kepler (12.6% K/.197 ISO), though his overall bat profile was fairly different (better plate discipline but less bat control/contact, a bit less power). Miranda made big improvements in plate discipline, and a significant part of his low walk rate comes from the fact that he just makes contact so much when he does swing, but I would still expect plate discipline to be his main weakness in the MLB. From the list I linked above I think it's perfectly reasonable to look at guys like McNeil, Hosmer, and Moustakas as comps for major league performance, though they are all left handed batters. I'm not sure who a good right-handed comp is. Maybe like Ryan Braun in his late 20s/early 30s? At any rate, it's hard to find players with the kind of power Miranda displayed combined with his low strikeout rates in the upper minors and at his age that were total flops in the majors. I think the floor isn't much below average major leaguer at this point, and the occasional all-star level is certainly possible.
  17. 2wins87
    It's hard for me to imagine the rest of the offseason not moving super quickly. Less than 3 weeks now until the date when catchers and pitchers are supposed to report in a normal offseason. The way negotiations are going, I doubt there is an agreement until a few days before that date (Feb 14), or even after. It'll be a pretty quick dash for teams to finish their offseason plans after that. I guess it wasn't totally obvious in the fall that this is how the offseason would play out. Plenty of prognosticators thought players and teams would be reluctant to make deals before a new CBA so the pre-lockout period would be slow. It did kind of make sense. But I think some of the smartest teams probably looked forward a few more months than that and made sure to get most of their work done early. In retrospect, I think it was a pretty terrible offseason to take the patient approach, which seems to be the MO for this front office. I'm not very optimistic that we're going to be super excited with what they end up with after it all shakes out.
  18. 2wins87
    Some intriguing guys in this group with along with a few more guys I expect in the next group as well. This is where I think the new front office is starting to really show a difference from the last in terms of player development. There are starting to be a lot of second and even third day draft picks with low perceived ceilings dominating in the lower to mid minors. Some will probably have a tougher time against tougher competition, but I expect some will continue to develop into good upper level prospects as well. We have yet to see a lot in terms of major league impact, and I'm still not sure whether they are really developing any front line starters. But I do think we will at least see a steady stream of solid and cheap mid-rotation guys be developed over the next few years. Hopefully they can turn the surplus money and talent into something for the top of the rotation as well. This current offseason has not been promising in that aspect yet.
  19. 2wins87
    I'm generally in favor of letting young arms get a shot at the rotation rather than filling the bottom of the rotation with a veteran who might have just as much downside. We've seen how poorly that can work out with Shoemaker and Happ. However, I'm not sure I'm ready to give the front office that much credit for this being an intentional strategy at this point. We don't know what was going on behind the scenes in the past month and I think it's just as likely they were caught off-guard by the quick market and simultaneously undervalued the talent compared to other organizations. It hasn't really been the M.O. of this front office to leave a spot open in the rotation for young guys. In 2020, filling out the rotation with Bailey and Hill, they had in theory 6 veteran starters if they had managed to all be healthy at the same point. And they had also signed Jhoulys Chacin but released him before the season eventually started. In 2018 they signed Anibal Sanchez to compete for an opening day roster spot with 5 veterans already ahead of him. Now, the "promising" young arms being blocked in those days were the likes of Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Lewis Thorpe, Fernando Romero, and Randy Dobnak. With that group it is pretty easy in hindsight to say they were right to be sure they had enough veterans. We have also seen that the young guys will inevitably find opportunities due to injuries, though that wouldn't really be a point in favor of the strategy of relying on young guys to start the season, if that is what the front office is planning. Especially since almost none of their current top prospects had a completely clean bill of health last year. I still think they will eventually fill the rotation in some way to the point where Ryan and Ober will be the two most "unproven" starters on opening day (at least barring a spring training injury to a veteran). And at this point I'm prepared to not be overly excited about the two other veterans joining Bundy. We'll just have to wait and see though.
  20. 2wins87
    Haha no of course not. Billionaires borrow against their massive equity holdings in order to pay 0% tax. Meanwhile their holdings increase in value drastically, and eventually they hand them down to their children without anyone ever paying taxes on the gains. What kind of silly billionaire would take a salary and have to pay taxes like the rest of us rubes?
  21. 2wins87
    I did notice him midseason. I can only surmise that the reason he seems so underappreciated is that the organization doesn't actually view him as a catcher going forward. That's just speculation based on the fact that he played more outfield than catcher, but I haven't heard anything about his defense at catcher. He did play a bit more there (relatively) after his promotion to Cedar Rapids. At any rate he's got great very good plate discipline numbers with a bit of pop already. Enough to be a sleeper even as an outfield prospect, and he probably ought to be in the conversation for the top 20 if there is any confidence that he can be a decent defensive catcher. I'd love some information on this.
  22. 2wins87
    You're only about a third of the way there with that offer. You can run the numbers here: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ The values aren't exact but they are always at least in the ballpark for real trades that actually happen. Whatever you think the values should be, Kepler isn't headlining a trade to Miami just due to fit. They want a younger more cost controlled guy, which is why I think Kirilloff would be their top target.
  23. 2wins87
    Miami would want guys like Kirilloff or Lewis, not Kepler and Sano.
  24. 2wins87
    I think Jeffers is a bit low. Catcher is a tough position to fill and I think teams value them a bit above their WAR because of this. Also Jeffers hit quite well when Garver was out. His offense has been suppressed by facing so much right handed pitching, but long term it should still be very solid for a catcher. Celestino also deserve a mention, I think pretty close to Ober in terms of future value. He hit really well after heading back down to AAA. It was a tough position to be put in jumping up to the majors after just 100 PAs in AA. I think he has enough pop to play as an elite corner defender or good center-fielder long term.
  25. 2wins87
    Jeffers OPS was over .800 in June and July when Garver was out and Jeffers was the primary catcher. His offense is capable when he plays full time for a catcher and doesn't have to face right handed pitching all the time.
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