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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    There are cardiac complications associated with getting COVID as well. Here is a Link to a report on a study in particular looking at cardiac arrest in the period before vaccines were available. I can't speak to all potential side effects, but many of the potential bad outcomes that have been associated with the vaccines are much more likely to occur from getting COVID itself. The risk calculation shouldn't be whether there is any tiny chance of an adverse effect from the vaccine but whether it will lower your overall risk of having adverse health effects (including getting COVID). Not to mention whether getting it will reduce the risk of bad health outcomes to those around you. I don't begrudge anyone for making decisions that they think are right. But I don't believe the evidence taken as a whole supports the decision not to get vaccinated for the vast majority. I don't really expect to change anyone's mind, but I would hope people would take the effort to learn about all of the risks, not just those associated with the vaccine. And also consider that we don't know any more about the long term effects of COVID than we do about the vaccine.
  2. 2wins87
    Not really shocked by any of these names. I supposed I wouldn't have been totally surprised by any name, there are vaccination stances that cut across politics even if it has gotten more polarized recently. Kepler seems to keep quiet about his personal politics but I kind of had a feeling. I hope both the Twins and Jays are in the playoffs and at least one or two change their minds before then.
  3. 2wins87
    In addition to the potential lack of durability, the fact that he doesn't have a true changeup is probably a big part of the reason that his stats as a starter last year weren't nearly as good as they are as a reliever this year. His unique splinker is the result of them trying to develop a changeup (splitter). It doesn't have a big velo difference from his fastball, and at its worst he's probably basically just getting sinker action, and not enough vertical drop that you see from a good splitter. The splinker has basically been his only weakness, and he's mostly gone away from the pitch after the Orioles hit back to back home runs off of it. I think it could still be a good pitch when mixed in more sparingly as a reliever, and hopefully he can still refine the movement/velocity. I think he is probably one of those guys that is just much more effective as a reliever.
  4. 2wins87
    Meh
  5. 2wins87
    Duran came in to protect a one run lead for two innings. Just because it's not the 9th doesn't mean it isn't high leverage. If the offense does it's job when he is on the mound it could have been a 2 or 3 run lead in the 8th which would have been a lower leverage situation than the one he came into. This is a good way to use Duran, it is the lack of any other reliable bullpen arms that is an issue, and that's on the front office, not Rocco Should Archer have been left in longer? Maybe. But we've seen him entirely lose his control after about 50 pitches several times this year. If he's going to be a starter then he probably should be built up to pitch deeper at some point, but I don't necessarily trust him to hold that lead in the 6th. And I'm certain that no one that's here complaining about how terrible this team is after every loss trusts him in that situation either. I do sort of hold Rocco accountable for seemingly not realizing that Pagan has not actually been good all year. He should be able to look past ERA to the peripherals (or just the eye test) and realize that he's been lucky to get out of so many situations of his own making, and the luck is starting to run out. But on the other hand, who should he trust? I suppose Thielbar has looked solid enough over the last month. Duffey is still getting shelled every few outings. The other issue of course is that the offense has looked to be in shambles the last 3 games between slumping hitters and key pieces missing. That could change fairly quickly and hopefully will. I'm worried about what the lineup will look like in Toronto though, when we likely find out that a few important hitters have refused to be vaccinated.
  6. 2wins87
    Sounds like Justin Crawford (Carl's son--yes another bloodline) is another guy with some serious helium who could be in the mix for a top 10 pick now. He's 13th on the updated MLB top 200.
  7. 2wins87
    He went from a 36% K rate in the complex league last year to 27% in low A this year. I think that's actually a pretty remarkable improvement for a guy moving up a level. I'd definitely like to see continued improvement, but I usually see 30% as the line between ok and worrysome. It'll be something to watch as he moves up, but for now I don't think it should temper excitement too much.
  8. 2wins87
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=encarn000chr&type=bgl&year=2022
  9. 2wins87
    Emmanuel Rodriguez deserves a mention as well. His power output was down in May but he still managed to scrape together a .515 OBP (.515!!!) and .939 OPS. Jeferson Morales also had a nice month in limited playing time with a .298/.389/.532 (.921) slash line.
  10. 2wins87
    Steer had a 12% K rate in May, so if you are using some combination K-BB number then he's probably the best of the bunch statistically speaking.
  11. 2wins87
    I looked a few years back from 2017 and it seems the Twins were taking about 30% college pitchers in the draft prior to the new regime. I was actually surprised it was that big of a difference. All teams take quite a few college arms these days, and all but a few probably shy away from high school arms for the most part too. I don't think this is a particularly new trend. I think the big difference for the front office is what they have been doing with the college arms they are drafting. There weren't a whole lot of pitching draft and development successes for the prior regime, and mostly they were guys that ended up relievers. Taylor Rogers (11th round of 2011) and Pat Neshek (6th round of 2002) are probably the most notable successes from the prior 15 years. Already with the new regime we have seen Ober (12th round or 2017), who looks likely to continue holding down a mid rotation slot which will more than likely lead him to matching and surpassing Rogers' value. Winder (7th round of 2018) looks ready to follow a similar, maybe even better path. Clearly they know how to add velocity in the minors now, and most of the other orgs do too. I think maybe a common trait among a lot of their early successes are big tall frames with decent control in college, maybe not caring as much about present velocity knowing they can get more especially with big-framed guys. Ober, Winder, Headrick, and Gipson-Long I think certainly fit that profile, probably Cade Povich who I think is taller than his listed 6'3", and maybe Festa, though his control didn't seem great in college. I would think other orgs also probably like many aspects of that profile too, but The Twins seem to be getting their guys and doing well developing them lately.
  12. 2wins87
    Celestino is technically not eligible for rookie of the year awards since he was on the active roster well over 45 days last year. He was still included on a lot of prospect lists since he was so far under the 135 PA limit, but still not a rookie in the eyes of the MLB.
  13. 2wins87
    Hajjar looks like he's ready to be challenged more. He seems to have gotten his minor early season control issues out of the way and has been close to unhittable in his last 4 starts. With Vallimont claimed by the Orioles I wonder if we'll see a couple of moves. I'd guess Gipson-Long or Headrick to AA and hopeful Hajjar to A+.
  14. 2wins87
    Good to see ERod getting another home run. He's been getting on base but has been in a power drought for all of May.
  15. 2wins87
    Saw some of SWRs start last night. He walked some guys but he was close to the zone mostly. Mostly I just noticed the other team running wild against him. Bechtold has now thrown out 1 of 20 base stealers this year, so I think it's more on him than SWR not being quick enough to the plate. I would expect to take some time adjusting to the position, but I would hope he can nab a few guys soon. Between him and Isola, they are not making it easy for the Wichita pitchers to control the run game.
  16. 2wins87
    Is it just me, or does he look faster this year? I looked up his sprint speed and it's basically the same as last year, so maybe he just looks better while running. Could be his knee is feeling better this year. I really enjoy watching him too.
  17. 2wins87
    I thought the Duran v Cabrera matchup was interesting. Duran and Jeffers elected to go all 4-seamers (maybe give the credit/blame more to Jeffers as I don't think Duran shook off any calls). Maybe they just didn't want to give him a chance to hit any of his slower offerings, maybe they thought he didn't have the bat speed anymore. But even with an elite fastball, I don't think you can give a future hall of famer that many looks at one pitch without mixing it up. Cabrera got the better of the at bat; hopefully Jeffers and Duran will learn. On the other hand, Sonny Gray looked fantastic. I really liked him as a get-out-of-Yankee-Stadium bounce-back candidate in 2019. The Twins had there eyes on Pineda instead, and the Reds got Gray and signed him to a great extension. I'm glad the Twins were able to get in on that deal this year and expect him to be well worth the $12 million option next year.
  18. 2wins87
    It's a somewhat new way of looking at things, but 111 mph off the bat is meaningful to teams and also many fans these days. A very basic rubric: 100+ mph batted ball: well hit 110+ mph: crushed The launch angle also matters. The fact that it was a double and not HR tells you it wasn't a fly ball. Probably a line drive, or possibly a sharp one hopper down the line. Sure other info could be useful, but I already know he hit the ball extremely hard and I have a pretty good idea of what kind of hit it was. Also, hate to break it to you but that quote is almost certainly misattributed. Probably Gandhi... maybe Marx.
  19. 2wins87
    Oh, I missed that. Makes sense
  20. 2wins87
    Weird seeing Rocco making two PH moves neutral to or against the platoon advantage. The first one made total sense bringing in one of your best rh hitters for another rh hitting rookie who has struggled. Managing 101. Bringing in Urshela for Gordon raised my eyebrows a bit though. Not that I think Gordon is a great hitter, but he actually has a better batting average than Urshela and would have had the platoon advantage. Not really a weird move to see most managers make to bring in the more veteran guy, but kind of against type for Rocco. Anyway, whatever the reason, great to see him come through. Great to see the Twins comeback big. I don't remember the last time they came back by that much that late in the game.
  21. 2wins87
    I liked Parada and Susac early on, and I'd still be good with that as I think this organization is pretty good at developing catcher defense and could turn either into a pretty good catcher overall. I've heard Gavin Cross mentioned with the Twins as well. I like that he has more overall athleticism than some of the other college bats near the top, but if it's not one of the catchers or Brooks Lee somehow falling I'd probably rather see them nab a high school bat (including Collier in that group). Law mocked Cole Young to the Twins. Being from a cold weather state where he got a later start and is still finishing out his season, this may not be as much of a reach as it might seem right now. It sounds like scouts love his swing. There seems to be enough high school talent at this point that one of the available guys at #8 could be a good route to go.
  22. 2wins87
    It's not so easy to do this with 8th overall slot money as it is with 1st or 2nd. They will also only have a supplemental pick after the 2nd round rather than the pick they sometimes get after the first round. There's plenty of chatter about the O's doing this strategy with their 1st overall pick and two competitive balance picks too. If they do follow that strategy they will have a lot more extra slot money than anyone else to throw around (and also the first pick on day 2). I think the Twins will play it pretty straight. I think they could go high school or college hitter in the first round, and probably mix in a few more hitters on day 1 or early day 2. But probably they will go heavy into college pitchers that they believe have untapped potential on day 2. Given how weak the pitching is at the top of the draft it's probably as good a year as any to follow that blueprint, which is already what they have liked to do.
  23. 2wins87
    I've only seen a little bit of his play, but I'm a big believer in Miller's defensive chops from what I've seen. It's possible he ends up pushing Lewis down the defensive ladder in the future. I think Miller's arm is one of his better assets so maybe he could be a great defensive third baseman as well.
  24. 2wins87
    If there aren't any injuries before then, Kirilloff and Lewis will be competing for the 13th position player slot that opens up in June. Lewis will have more defensive versatility just from his overall athleticism. But Kirilloff is the guy we would have expected to have the spot prior to the season starting, and they might be a little more willing to play him in a slightly less than full time role.
  25. 2wins87
    I've been doing a bit of reviewing of this front office's drafts lately. I think 2019 looks like one of their worse drafts at the top, but could be one of the better in terms of depth. Cavaco is definitely looking like a reach now, I'm still not sold on Wallner's success translating to the majors (see Brent Rooker), and Canterino has yet to pitch more than 25 innings in a professional season due to injuries after coming out of the most notorious school for overworking college pitchers. If Canterino is finally able to stay healthy he could salvage it a bit, but there is a high likelihood he'll be a reliever due to his injury history. I also won't write off Wallner as long as he continues to produce despite the Ks. On the other hand, Steer looks like a future major leaguer. Isola also looks like he should hit plenty for a catcher, though I'm not as sure about his defense there. Varland has been a great development, though also with some reliever risk. I'd put Mooney, Gipson-Long, and Headrick in a similar tier. They will keep working their way up as starters but could find an easier path the the majors eventually as a reliever. There will be some tough decisions on the college guys and the 40-man this offseason. I would think Canterino, Wallner, Steer, and Varland would basically be locks. The other pitchers that they have worked so hard to develop from mid round picks could be relief stash targets for another organization, so they will have to do some good internal scouting this year.
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