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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=encarn000chr&type=bgl&year=2022
  2. 2wins87
    Emmanuel Rodriguez deserves a mention as well. His power output was down in May but he still managed to scrape together a .515 OBP (.515!!!) and .939 OPS. Jeferson Morales also had a nice month in limited playing time with a .298/.389/.532 (.921) slash line.
  3. 2wins87
    Steer had a 12% K rate in May, so if you are using some combination K-BB number then he's probably the best of the bunch statistically speaking.
  4. 2wins87
    I looked a few years back from 2017 and it seems the Twins were taking about 30% college pitchers in the draft prior to the new regime. I was actually surprised it was that big of a difference. All teams take quite a few college arms these days, and all but a few probably shy away from high school arms for the most part too. I don't think this is a particularly new trend. I think the big difference for the front office is what they have been doing with the college arms they are drafting. There weren't a whole lot of pitching draft and development successes for the prior regime, and mostly they were guys that ended up relievers. Taylor Rogers (11th round of 2011) and Pat Neshek (6th round of 2002) are probably the most notable successes from the prior 15 years. Already with the new regime we have seen Ober (12th round or 2017), who looks likely to continue holding down a mid rotation slot which will more than likely lead him to matching and surpassing Rogers' value. Winder (7th round of 2018) looks ready to follow a similar, maybe even better path. Clearly they know how to add velocity in the minors now, and most of the other orgs do too. I think maybe a common trait among a lot of their early successes are big tall frames with decent control in college, maybe not caring as much about present velocity knowing they can get more especially with big-framed guys. Ober, Winder, Headrick, and Gipson-Long I think certainly fit that profile, probably Cade Povich who I think is taller than his listed 6'3", and maybe Festa, though his control didn't seem great in college. I would think other orgs also probably like many aspects of that profile too, but The Twins seem to be getting their guys and doing well developing them lately.
  5. 2wins87
    Celestino is technically not eligible for rookie of the year awards since he was on the active roster well over 45 days last year. He was still included on a lot of prospect lists since he was so far under the 135 PA limit, but still not a rookie in the eyes of the MLB.
  6. 2wins87
    Hajjar looks like he's ready to be challenged more. He seems to have gotten his minor early season control issues out of the way and has been close to unhittable in his last 4 starts. With Vallimont claimed by the Orioles I wonder if we'll see a couple of moves. I'd guess Gipson-Long or Headrick to AA and hopeful Hajjar to A+.
  7. 2wins87
    Good to see ERod getting another home run. He's been getting on base but has been in a power drought for all of May.
  8. 2wins87
    Saw some of SWRs start last night. He walked some guys but he was close to the zone mostly. Mostly I just noticed the other team running wild against him. Bechtold has now thrown out 1 of 20 base stealers this year, so I think it's more on him than SWR not being quick enough to the plate. I would expect to take some time adjusting to the position, but I would hope he can nab a few guys soon. Between him and Isola, they are not making it easy for the Wichita pitchers to control the run game.
  9. 2wins87
    Is it just me, or does he look faster this year? I looked up his sprint speed and it's basically the same as last year, so maybe he just looks better while running. Could be his knee is feeling better this year. I really enjoy watching him too.
  10. 2wins87
    I thought the Duran v Cabrera matchup was interesting. Duran and Jeffers elected to go all 4-seamers (maybe give the credit/blame more to Jeffers as I don't think Duran shook off any calls). Maybe they just didn't want to give him a chance to hit any of his slower offerings, maybe they thought he didn't have the bat speed anymore. But even with an elite fastball, I don't think you can give a future hall of famer that many looks at one pitch without mixing it up. Cabrera got the better of the at bat; hopefully Jeffers and Duran will learn. On the other hand, Sonny Gray looked fantastic. I really liked him as a get-out-of-Yankee-Stadium bounce-back candidate in 2019. The Twins had there eyes on Pineda instead, and the Reds got Gray and signed him to a great extension. I'm glad the Twins were able to get in on that deal this year and expect him to be well worth the $12 million option next year.
  11. 2wins87
    It's a somewhat new way of looking at things, but 111 mph off the bat is meaningful to teams and also many fans these days. A very basic rubric: 100+ mph batted ball: well hit 110+ mph: crushed The launch angle also matters. The fact that it was a double and not HR tells you it wasn't a fly ball. Probably a line drive, or possibly a sharp one hopper down the line. Sure other info could be useful, but I already know he hit the ball extremely hard and I have a pretty good idea of what kind of hit it was. Also, hate to break it to you but that quote is almost certainly misattributed. Probably Gandhi... maybe Marx.
  12. 2wins87
    Oh, I missed that. Makes sense
  13. 2wins87
    Weird seeing Rocco making two PH moves neutral to or against the platoon advantage. The first one made total sense bringing in one of your best rh hitters for another rh hitting rookie who has struggled. Managing 101. Bringing in Urshela for Gordon raised my eyebrows a bit though. Not that I think Gordon is a great hitter, but he actually has a better batting average than Urshela and would have had the platoon advantage. Not really a weird move to see most managers make to bring in the more veteran guy, but kind of against type for Rocco. Anyway, whatever the reason, great to see him come through. Great to see the Twins comeback big. I don't remember the last time they came back by that much that late in the game.
  14. 2wins87
    I liked Parada and Susac early on, and I'd still be good with that as I think this organization is pretty good at developing catcher defense and could turn either into a pretty good catcher overall. I've heard Gavin Cross mentioned with the Twins as well. I like that he has more overall athleticism than some of the other college bats near the top, but if it's not one of the catchers or Brooks Lee somehow falling I'd probably rather see them nab a high school bat (including Collier in that group). Law mocked Cole Young to the Twins. Being from a cold weather state where he got a later start and is still finishing out his season, this may not be as much of a reach as it might seem right now. It sounds like scouts love his swing. There seems to be enough high school talent at this point that one of the available guys at #8 could be a good route to go.
  15. 2wins87
    It's not so easy to do this with 8th overall slot money as it is with 1st or 2nd. They will also only have a supplemental pick after the 2nd round rather than the pick they sometimes get after the first round. There's plenty of chatter about the O's doing this strategy with their 1st overall pick and two competitive balance picks too. If they do follow that strategy they will have a lot more extra slot money than anyone else to throw around (and also the first pick on day 2). I think the Twins will play it pretty straight. I think they could go high school or college hitter in the first round, and probably mix in a few more hitters on day 1 or early day 2. But probably they will go heavy into college pitchers that they believe have untapped potential on day 2. Given how weak the pitching is at the top of the draft it's probably as good a year as any to follow that blueprint, which is already what they have liked to do.
  16. 2wins87
    I've only seen a little bit of his play, but I'm a big believer in Miller's defensive chops from what I've seen. It's possible he ends up pushing Lewis down the defensive ladder in the future. I think Miller's arm is one of his better assets so maybe he could be a great defensive third baseman as well.
  17. 2wins87
    If there aren't any injuries before then, Kirilloff and Lewis will be competing for the 13th position player slot that opens up in June. Lewis will have more defensive versatility just from his overall athleticism. But Kirilloff is the guy we would have expected to have the spot prior to the season starting, and they might be a little more willing to play him in a slightly less than full time role.
  18. 2wins87
    I've been doing a bit of reviewing of this front office's drafts lately. I think 2019 looks like one of their worse drafts at the top, but could be one of the better in terms of depth. Cavaco is definitely looking like a reach now, I'm still not sold on Wallner's success translating to the majors (see Brent Rooker), and Canterino has yet to pitch more than 25 innings in a professional season due to injuries after coming out of the most notorious school for overworking college pitchers. If Canterino is finally able to stay healthy he could salvage it a bit, but there is a high likelihood he'll be a reliever due to his injury history. I also won't write off Wallner as long as he continues to produce despite the Ks. On the other hand, Steer looks like a future major leaguer. Isola also looks like he should hit plenty for a catcher, though I'm not as sure about his defense there. Varland has been a great development, though also with some reliever risk. I'd put Mooney, Gipson-Long, and Headrick in a similar tier. They will keep working their way up as starters but could find an easier path the the majors eventually as a reliever. There will be some tough decisions on the college guys and the 40-man this offseason. I would think Canterino, Wallner, Steer, and Varland would basically be locks. The other pitchers that they have worked so hard to develop from mid round picks could be relief stash targets for another organization, so they will have to do some good internal scouting this year.
  19. 2wins87
    Winder was out there to save the bullpen last night. They knew Bundy was going to have a short start as he needs to build back up a bit. Ober will also probably have a bit of a short start when he comes back Friday or Saturday. Then the question is whether they want to go back to a 6-man rotation with Winder in Paddack's place going forward or keep him in the long relief role. He has seemed to be better in a starting role, though it's hard to say how much of that is random with only a few appearances in each role. I still lean towards giving him more opportunities to start right now. I understand the Lewis move, but he's been too good for him not to be back up sometime soon. He could be an important part of a playoff run. I would hope we see him getting some time at other positions in St Paul to get the experience to be a more flexible replacement for the next injury or come back in more of a utility role. I don't think he should be temporarily playing at first. He's too athletic and there's no chance it's a future position for him. Third base second base and outfield would all be reasonable positions for him to gain experience at though. It's very evident that the frustration is building for Miranda. He started out fine with a bit of bad luck and some contact that was just a bit off, but it seems that he's started pressing more the more he struggles. He may need to head back down to AAA to find his approach and swing again. They weirdly don't have many options at 1B now, but that shouldn't really be keeping him or Kirilloff on the roster if they need to figure things out in AAA. If they want to sit Arraez then Larnach could at least be a tall target, Garlick has a bit of minor league experience, Kepler has a couple of major league innings. They can always find someone to play 1B.
  20. 2wins87
    It looked like Julien was grabbing his hammy before being taken out (thanks to Tom Froemming for putting stuff like that in his highlight videos).
  21. 2wins87
    I'm excited to see if he can continue the dominance. Being able to sit in the upper 90s as a starter would certainly suggest that he can. He seems to be the leading candidate to be this year's version of Ober/Winder/Varland; a 13th round pick adding velocity and rocketing up the prospect lists. For replacement moves, it would be a bit of a surprise but possible that the PTBNL Brayan Medina could fill the spot. We also haven't seen 5th rounder Christian MacLeod yet but I think that is because he is injured. I think we could also see guys pushed up the ladder ahead of him. Gipson-Long or Headrick seem like candidates to head up to Wichita soon. Also, as long as they manage to keep Canterino healthy I think it would be a good idea to push him as quickly as his results will dictate.
  22. 2wins87
    I think we should be realistic about Pagan. His FIP is at 5.33 so far. His xFIP and xERA are better at about 4, but hardly supportive of his ERA and WPA so far. Those peripheral stats aren't outliers either, the season in Tampa and his rookie season seem more like the outliers at this point. I'm not saying the new pitch isn't interesting and maybe something that helps him be better long term, but I don't see much evidence it has made him better already. He does have a career high GB% at 43% (removing bunts), which could probably be attributed to the splitter. Looking at his baseball savant data with a little guesswork I think he might have 36% GB rate on his other pitches, basically at the high end of his career averages. That could be pretty big for him considering his career home run rate of 1.75 HR/9. Unfortunately his HR/FB rate has also been higher, leading to a similar amount of home runs this year, and the increase in walks--which have hurt him far less than they should have--can probably also be largely attributed to his new pitch. If he can get a bit better control over the splitter and the HR/FB rate comes down to his career levels then I can see a narrative where he becomes more effective through better home run suppression and maybe a slight uptick in Ks as well. What's happened so far though is that he's been lucky to have such a low ERA despite putting lots of guys on base and giving up quite a few HRs. Despite that, he has the highest leverage index of any Twins reliever when entering the game, which simply should not be the case. Joe Smith should clearly be ahead of him based on performance, I think it's uncontroversial that Duran should be ahead of him as well. Duffey and Thielbar have at times looked shaky too but probably should be higher leverage than Pagan as well. Even Jax has an argument. I don't know if the fact that the Twins traded away their closer/highest leverage arm to get him has led them to use him as a closer, but he really ought to be a middle innings guy until he shows consistent improvement. I would need to see him string together a few more good outings in a row before I really believe it.
  23. 2wins87
    I agree with pretty much everything you said here and earlier. Shortstop is easily the most demanding position in terms of overall athleticism, not just speed but quickness, reactions, hands, arm, agility, durability. It's usually easy to knock a prospect on at least one aspect of what goes into being a good shortstop. It seems like in the majors there does end up being a fairly wide variance on some of the skills, and plenty of shortstops aren't all that fast. It helps for a young guy like Lewis to have the speed and quickness to get to a few extra balls, but it doesn't really seem to be the most important thing for guys that stick long term. I was also very impressed by Noah Miller in spring training. First time I saw him make a play I didn't have the sound on, had no idea who he was and was very surprised when I eventually figured out it was him. He made a few nice plays, I think maybe the footwork was the only thing that didn't look quite as fluid as a major league SS in spring training. Only two errors on the year for a .979 fielding percentage. I would think that probably means the arm has been accurate and the hands have been pretty much as good as they looked in spring training. I've been very excited to see his bat get hot the last few weeks, he's got a lot going for him right now.
  24. 2wins87
    Seth described him as solid behind the plate in his preseason list. Fangraphs only had a blurb where they described him as "bat first". He hasn't appeared on any other lists that I'm aware of. He's only thrown out 14% out of 115 base stealers in his minor league career. That's not very good. Compare to Jeffers who gets ragged for his arm and threw out 25% in the minors. There is obviously so much more to catcher defense than that, but my guess is that it's safe to say he needs to continue working on his defense. The bat has been great so far though, with power and plate discipline, so bat-first backup seems like a reasonable possibility right now.
  25. 2wins87
    Hard to tell how much was Welke just giving Verlander veteran calls and how much was Ryan not hitting his spots well enough to get the calls. He did have a pretty bad miss on a strike for Verlander, I think I remember it and it was one where he missed his spot by quite a bit. Either way, Verlander took advantage of Welke's generous outside edge, and a strike zone that big will typically lead to a pretty low score. Verlander was obviously great, he showed how important good command can be. I wouldn't say he dominated the Twins lineup though. He struck out 5, and one of those was on a very bad called third strike to Celestino. The Twins put 4 balls in play with an expected batting average over .500 against him and only one was a hit. There were also two other well hit balls with xBAs of .350 and .450. The Astros played a much cleaner game and were able to be patient against some lack of control from our pitchers, but the Twins' xBA at the end of the game was .239 and the Astros was .242. So that's my silver lining from what looked like a pretty pitiful performance on the surface.
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