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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    Jorge Lopez's first 32 appearances: 37 IP, 3 ER. His last two against the Twins: 1/3 IP, 4 ER. Based on his overall MLB career, it's quite possible Lopez isn't quite as good as his numbers this year suggest, but still a very impressive showing by the Twins lineup.
  2. 2wins87
    Buxton has some uppercut to his swing, which leads to a lot of balls in the air and also more swing and miss than you might like. That swing last night was just trying to make contact though, and the ball still just explodes off his bat. He's probably had 4 or 5 of those just making contact homers this year. Bottom line, he's found an approach that works for him. Compared to where he was 4 years ago, it's night and day. If he just stays on the field most of the time for the rest of his contract he'll be one of the Twins' all time greats, and I'll be very happy to watch it.
  3. 2wins87
    The hardest fastball I had previously seen out of Schulfer was 97 in Wichita. 99 isn't out of the question. He may have dialed it up a bit more since then, and he was overly well rested for his appearance last night. I think Balazovic was typically sitting 93-95 last year, so it's not good either way. I don't know if he is a guy who typically builds velocity throughout his outings, but his velocity is definitely a part of his struggles this year.
  4. 2wins87
    I mentioned Schulfer as an interesting bullpen arm yesterday and he got his first work in a week last night for the Saints, so here's a little broadcast scouting. I think it was a bit of an off night compared to what I saw in his AA appearances. He seemed to be struggling to control both his pitches compared to the previous outings that I watched. He managed to avoid giving up any free passes though, including coming back from 3-0 to throw a fastball by the #8 hitter for a strikeout. He threw mostly fastballs this time as his sliders were missing the zone, including a couple non-competitive pitches outside and in the dirt. His fastballs seemed to all be getting clocked at either 97 or 99 mph. The radar gun in St. Paul has been known to be a little hot, so maybe call it sitting 95-97, possibly touching 98. It ended up being a short outing as he induced an inning ending GIDP to erase an opposite field lead-off single. I don't think he looked great yesterday, but he still flashed stuff that seems like it could work in a major league bullpen, and his 5% walk rate across two levels is indicative of a guy who usually has very good control out of the pen.
  5. 2wins87
    oops
  6. 2wins87
    I've been getting more and more interested in Schulfer--who is now in AAA--as the season has gone on. Although he hasn't pitched in about a week now so I'm wondering about that. I went to some archived AA games to see what he was doing and how hard he was throwing. The Wichita broadcasts display velocity on most pitches. I saw a 97 and a 96 on his fastball. More interesting, I didn't keep track, but it seemed like he was throwing probably 65-70% sliders. He seemed to have command of the pitch as he was mostly burying it down and away to righties right around the edge of the zone. It seems like a profile that works in the majors and he's been incredible in his first season converting to a reliever.
  7. 2wins87
    That might have been true for many years but there is a different development regime now and recent history suggests this front office might be better at doing it the other way around. Since the new regime took over in 2017, Mark Contreras is their only position player pick outside of the 2nd round to make the majors. Spencer Steer might be the next and even he was a 3rd round pick. Meanwhile they have already gotten significant contributions from Ober and Winder taken in the 13th and 7th rounds respectively. They've also had several more guys pop up from the later rounds including Varland last year and Festa this year who look very promising, and others like Headrick, Gipson-Long, and Schulfer who haven't gotten quite as much attention but are also looking promising as they make their way to the high minors. This is not to mention that the 1st round pitching in this draft is incredibly thin. I think the first round is the best opportunity to get a position player with truly plus tools, and they can mold some pitchers from the later rounds. The front office has typically demonstrated that this is their strategy and this year would probably be a terrible year to veer away from it. The high school pitching is fairly deep and I think there could be some interesting high school arms available and signable in the second round. I'd be very interested in seeing them take a high upside shot there.
  8. 2wins87
    I haven't looked closely at his market. He will have Turner to compete with, who is a bit older and might be looking for a slightly shorter contract that could be more appealing to some teams. But I have to think that even a disappointing offer in Correa's eyes would have to be 8 or 9 years and at least close to $300 million. I wouldn't rule out that something like 8/$280 ends up being his best offer. I can see an argument that the Twins ought to give him an offer at whatever the market rate ends up being. The Twins could afford a contract of that size. But it is also just a reality that a contract that big could be an obstacle a few years down the line for a mid market team like the Twins spending at a typical rate to their peers. Lewis not being ready until sometime mid-season next year makes it harder to see Correa go in the short term. If you think Lewis will have at least a couple productive years as a primary shortstop though, then Correa probably isn't the most ideal fit anyway. My base case is for them to move on to a defense first starter to begin the year who can then move into more of a backup/utility role when Lewis returns. Maybe that could be Palacios, though I'm not sure they wouldn't want to aim for at least a slightly more proven bat.
  9. 2wins87
    What makes you think he won't get a deal in the range of Corey Seager's or Francisco Lindor's?
  10. 2wins87
    To be fair, it probably should have been Headrick who looked to be on track for another good start before the game was suspended. It's coming down to injuries again right now. Arguably their best pitching prospects Canterino and SWR are both now on the shelf. Hajjar also hasn't pitched since early June, and Raya had an ominous early exit -- have we heard any more on this? The seasons from Festa, Povich, Hajjar, Raya (backing up the hype), Gipson-Long, Headrick, and Schulfer have me more encouraged overall than I am discouraged by setbacks for Balazovic, Enlow, Henriquez, and Strotman. Balazovic and Enlow could be at the point of turning a corner after their injuries as well, at least we can hope.
  11. 2wins87
    Nice to see Martin getting on base a lot over the past week+. I saw a little chatter about the organization maybe tinkering with his swing, which wouldn't be surprising as he could certainly benefit from adding some power. Long term he probably still needs to drive the ball better, but letting him just get comfortable doing what he does best could be good for him right now.
  12. 2wins87
    I think Bundy starts sweating just walking to the mound. To be fair to Pagan a few other relievers have done their part to narrow the gap as well. The Twins now hold a narrow 5-4 lead in the season series, but with a +19 run differential. They haven't lost a game by more than one run to Cleveland. With a competent bullpen they would be dominating them. On the plus side, with Polanco back, the lineup is pretty stacked. Kirilloff looks good, Miranda has been producing like his 2021 season suggests he should for over a month now, Jeffers seems to have gotten back on track, and even Gordon is producing well for a utility guy. They are also back to the point where they have 6 competent looking starters. (Yeah, I'm not so sure about Bundy but he has had a couple starts in a row looking back to his early season form). They have enough to keep winning through the trade deadline by which time they should have traded for a bullpen upgrade and will possibly have some more clarity on who else they can trust beyond Jax. Will they be a world series caliber team at that point? Doubtful, but they could be strong enough to at least start snapping some of their playoff losing streaks.
  13. 2wins87
    First game lineup for the Twins is up in the game preview. 2B - Arraez SS - Correa RF - Kepler DH - Garlick 1B - Kirilloff C - Sanchez LF - Gordon CF - Celestino So I would guess Buxton gets center in game 2, Urshela obviously gets 3rd and Jeffers obviously catches, maybe Contreras will get a start in left.
  14. 2wins87
    Seems like he was good but not amazing in the last two seasons. Sure the FIP is under 3, but his xERA is 3.81 and his hard hit rate is worse than the average pitcher. I don't think it would be a bad move but I also don't think his peripherals actually point to more than a slightly above average reliever upside. I would like to see them aim a bit higher.
  15. 2wins87
    The Phillies aren't sellers
  16. 2wins87
    Indeed. I hadn't clocked Urbina in the lineup there. He might technically be on a rehab assignment even though he's still basically at the average batter age in the complex league. I'm not sure if they'll send him to repeat low A for the second half, but I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up in Cedar Rapids this year. He wasn't really overmatched in low A last year, he just lacked power. I think they could push him while still working to develop his ability to drive the ball more.
  17. 2wins87
    For the record the names of the Pena's are Alex, Isaac, and Daniel. I remember Alex Pena's name from last year. He is repeating the complex league right now. Last year he hit well for average but no power. He appears to have added some power which is good because I think he basically plays 1B. Hopefully he will get a chance in low A soon. Given his age and experience level it would be good to give him an opportunity against tougher competition.
  18. 2wins87
    A 50 run grade on Martin seems a bit low. I don't think he's super fast but he seems above average. MLB has him at 55. I think the bigger thing with him is getting good jumps. He has some of that fast-twitch acceleration which is just as big as straight line speed when it comes to stealing bases.
  19. 2wins87
    I was tested in AAA last year and I think it went into effect at all minor league levels this year. The size of the bases didn't seem to make a very big difference, and it is a relatively small tweak compared to other rules changes. I think success rates were up about 1% in AAA for the half of the season when the bases changed. It could be a bit bigger impact at the major league level where there might be fewer replay reviews for players coming off the bag. I don't think we should expect a drastic change next year though.
  20. 2wins87
    Some good outings from guys who have had tough seasons so far. Austin Martin actually had 3 hits, a walk, and HBP on the night since he picked up a hit and walk after the continuation of yesterday's suspended game. He also had a very nifty fielding play in game 2. He came in on a soft liner to short to make the catch around his knees, then immediately flipped from his glove to second base to double off the runner. He wouldn't have had time to complete the double play with a transfer and toss, so it was a pretty slick play showing really good awareness. He also did make a fielding error in the continuation game 1, but still a good night overall which is good to see from him. Balazovic definitely had his best outing of the season. He had some inconsistency dating back to last year really, so even with the injury I've been pretty concerned with his struggles. Hopefully last night was a sign of him turning the corner. I also watched most of Enlow's start and I think he looked good even if his line was sort of mediocre. He got the fastball up to 95, threw a lot of cutters at about 90 mph, and had his big low 80's curve working pretty well. I could be wrong but I think I also saw at least one well located changeup mixed in at 88 mph.
  21. 2wins87
    A little early for comparison, but 2018 might be this front office's best draft overall so far. Larnach certainly looks like a good outcome for 20th overall, same with Jeffers in the second round. Any time the top two picks in a draft exceed the average expectations for their slot it's probably a good draft. Winder emerging from the second day picks is also a coup, and I would agree that they still have a good chance to get a decent reliever from the group and maybe a utility player. I'm liking the returns so far from last year's draft so far, even with Petty's value now basically cashed in, but we'll have to wait a few years before we really know how well that draft paid off. The depth from 2019 also looks quite good, but the top of the draft is pretty suspect.
  22. 2wins87
    Wallner seems kind of like Larnach defensively to me. He's maybe not quite as slow as he seems, but at the very least he moves pretty well and has a good enough arm to make up for a lack of range. That's based off a fairly small sample of watching, but I don't think he'll be the kind of defensive liability that made it that much harder to give Rooker the opportunity to adjust in the majors. It seems Wallner will have to get his chance in the majors at some point. One thing that has been true in his minor league career is that despite the strikeouts and cold stretches at every level, he still manages to produce big numbers in the end. While I've never been a huge believer, he's made it hard to just dismiss him. I don't really think we'll learn too much more from the rest of his minor league career, so I'm just going to wait until he gets his chance and see if he can continue to defy the skepticism.
  23. 2wins87
    The most obvious thing I noticed about him when I've seen him pitch is his unique arm slot. It might not quite be sidearm but is definitely lower than 3/4. And he looks to have a pretty wide wingspan too. Not something you see from the left side too often. As you would expect, he's been hell on lefties this year, with an .077 BA and .222 OPS against. Weirdly he wasn't great against lefties in previous seasons, and I don't think the arms slot is totally new. Could be some minor arm slot adjustments combined with pitch shape changes and maybe adjustments on the rubber. Regardless of the difference, he's a guy that gives hitters a different look, so I could see him being a lefty specialist in the majors. He seems to have been good enough against righties to deal with the 3 batter minimum too.
  24. 2wins87
    Yeah the changes are interesting, but who knows when, if ever, these experiments make their way to the majors. The Rays did end up giving up two outs on bases trying to steal on Jeffers Saturday (only gaining one base on a successful steal). So even as bad as Jeffers is at that part of the game it's still not completely without risk trying to take extra bases against him. The bar for adding value by stealing bases is just so high. Even if the league makes it marginally easier the math for success won't really change unless the run scoring environment truly tumbles. So yeah he's not the ideal catcher, but the inability to control the run game just isn't too big of a deal in the MLB as is, and I don't see it changing very quickly.
  25. 2wins87
    He's not only a pitch framer. He grades out pretty well at blocking and game calling as well. Defensive metrics for catchers, as flawed as they are, see him as among the best in the game. His 5.6 RAA at Fangraphs ranks 6th in the majors right now. Maybe the run game is coming back, but as offensive levels have been heating up this year teams that have been running more might still rethink that a bit. I think it continues to be a de-emphasized part of the game. Even with different versions of the automatic strike zone being used in the minors, I don't think it makes it to the majors for a while, at least through his arb-eligible years.
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