2wins87

Fangraphs has Lewis at 60/70 raw power, and 40/60 game power. I'm not sure why no one seems to think of Lewis as having power. His max exit velo in his majors stint last year was 114 mph which is 94th percentile in the MLB. His average exit velo was above average too. I'm a little less sure about Lee, but he has had a good number of 100+ exit velos this spring. He still strikes me as more of a line-drive contact hitter so far, but he can hit the ball pretty hard.

If the top 4 does play out like that, for me there would still be an interesting choice between Clark, the next SEC standout Jacob Gonzalez, and the next potential frontline pitcher Hurston Waldrep. Gonzalez has shown less present power, but scouting reports I've read make it seem that it's not lack of physicality but that a few little tweaks could unleash pretty significant game power, in which case he could be every bit as good a hitter as Crews and Langford. Similarly Waldrep's stuff is pretty much right there with Skenes and Dollander, he just gets knocked for his smaller frame which typically means more injury/reliever risk. Of course, the odds that the top 4 actually does play out to the current consensus is always pretty low. It's pretty easy to see one of the top 4 going for the HS bat, likely Clark, maybe Jenkins. Two pitchers going in the top 4 might also not be super likely, since bats are just so much safer in general. There is also plenty of potential for someone else to emerge, either for the top four or on the Twins' internal board. Colton Ledbetter (another SEC bat) is a name that seems to be popping up now. I have no clue what is going on in the draft room, but I've convinced myself that there is a good chance that they break the mold of going for a college bat and end up with either a HS bat or college pitcher. It should be an exciting draft either way.

It's a very interesting idea. I wonder how much time they would want to spend trying to have their top pick catch when you would hope his bat would move quickly, and he also has enough speed to probably play a passable center and be plus in a corner. That said, turning him into a decent catcher would really maximize his value.

Yeah, the thing that keeps him on the "other guys to watch" list for me is the fact that they didn't seem overly eager to promote him quickly despite being a little old for single-A, and he hit some speed bumps once he got to high-A, getting hit hard a few times. Certainly with a mid 90's fastball, good control, and developing secondaries, there is no reason he can't make a big jump this year.

My impression from what I've read lately is that it's a very strong draft and the top is not set yet. Crews and Dollander came in as the most well regarded hitter and pitcher by the industry, but the talent of guys behind them is enough that they could easily be surpassed in a lot of draft rooms. It sounds like both Skenes and Waldrep are close enough to Dollander that it wouldn't be surprising at this point for one of them to end up in the top 4 (and Dollander potentially being available at #5). Bottom line, there is going to be someone really good available at #5.

Maybe a more niche appeal of the pitch clock, but for me watching on MLB.tv and joining about 2 innings in, the 10-second skip ahead was great for cutting out most of the dead time between pitches. A couple guys were almost too quick with their pace, but generally I think there was about 12-15 seconds between pitches received by the catcher and around 25 seconds when there was a foul ball, so I could basically click from pitch to pitch while I caught up to the game. I think last year it might have been something like 20 between most pitches and 30 after foul balls

Probably where everyone is at by the end of spring training will play the biggest role. But all things being equal I would agree Gray based on veteran-ness and performance last year. If there is a rough 1-5 order I think they might continue with Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, and Maeda. Honestly all 5 of those guys probably have close to equal odds of being the Twins' best starter at the end of the year though (for better or worse).

First game on MLB.tv so I was happy to get to watch baseball again. Not too many regular/top prospects to watch but still had a few takeaways. Was trying to watch for Ryan's improved slider. The score box on the Philly broadcast called it a "slutter" which I think was uncalled for. I remember one nice whiff when he located it well down and away. I think there might have been one or two more, but he mostly got weak contact on it. Phillies didn't hit him hard but his command clearly wasn't there in his first ST start. Probably will get there by opening day. The highlight for me was Brent Headrick. Sat 92-94 with the FB doing a pretty good job of hitting his spot at the top of the zone. Ran it up to 95/96 a few times with 2 strikes. He had a sweeping curve working too. He finished Castellanos with two back-foot curves. First one buckled him a little bit as he managed to hold up, second one he swung right over the top. Shades of Taylor Rogers on that particular pitch to me. Overall he seemed to be in pretty good command of all of his pitches. I think the velocity was pretty on par with where he was midseason last year, but I'm not sure how often he was hitting 95 or 96. If he does that regularly this year I think he moves into the conversation as a top starting pitching prospect. Miranda didn't get too many pitches to hit but looked good in all 3 at bats. He seems ready for the WBC. Julien might have been jobbed by the ump on a few close pitches called for strikes (particularly in his first AB). It's going to be an adjustment for him facing pitchers that can live around the edges more reliably. Lee's right handed swing generates tons of contact and line drives. Not that he's impatient now, but he seems like a guy that can only benefit by increasing patience and making the pitchers come to him.

This is a weird way of looking at his season last year. He actually did have an ERA over 10 in April last year (which I think is fair to attribute partly to some rough luck). Getting his ERA down to where it was at the end of the year did require him to be pretty much dominant for most of the rest of the year (2.38 ERA from May on). Even with a few more home runs in May through September it would have been a very solid stretch of relief pitching.

If he continues to pitch well this year I'm guessing his arb number would be about $4 maybe $4.5 million next year as a 37 year old. Based on how the front office usually approaches the bullpen I would guess that will already be a close decision for them. He's been fun to root for though, so I'm hoping he has two more good years in him, giving him a good payday (by non professional athlete standards at least) before likely retirement.

With healthy legs he could hit 30+ HR and play plus defense at 2B. I'm not sure where his health will be at but I'm not assuming he won't be healthy, in which case it's very easy to envision a scenario where he's easily worth 2-3x his $10 million option. Maybe he's still trade bait in that scenario, but if they're contending and he's like their 3rd best position player no way he's moved before the deadline. And they'll have to get a very good offer for him in the off-season as well.

Edit: Oh, 2025 not 2024, so yeah Lee should easily have graduated. I do think the #5 pick this year is shaping up to be a very strong prospect and will have a good shot at #1 though. While I think Lee will still move quickly, I think him getting enough at bats/service time to graduate from the list this year is probably either very optimistic or pessimistic depending on what scenario you envision.

I usually start researching the draft looking at college position players just because of recent draft tendencies. It seems like they could be all over Wyatt Langford based on what I've seen reported on his exit velos and his strong college performance in general. It also sounds like Brayden Taylor has some quality data behind him, and Fangraphs recently rated him #2 on their updated board, though he's more just outside the top 10 at most other outlets at least for now. I can kind of see them going a different direction this year. It sounds like there is quality depth in the draft this year for most types except maybe HS pitching?

From what I know of his personality, kind of hard for me to see Wes not having positive things to say about one of his pitchers. Not sure he'd have the inclination or be in the position to give the Twins' scouts anything different than other teams either. But at the very least, I would think that the developmental philosophy he's brought to LSU will still be very similar to the Twins'. So that probably would give them more confidence that he's being developed in a similar direction that they will take, or maybe they could see if he's not taking as well to the coaching. But yeah, in some way the connection will probably make it more likely that they will take Skenes than they would be to take a clone without such connections. I also don't know if this is a connection or not, but there is also the Air Force angle with Griffin Jax being the first and best player developed out of the Academy, though he was drafted by the prior regime. Going from Air Force to Wes Johnson it almost seems like he's angling to be drafted by the Twins.

I did end up watching some random videos of Buxton batting on Baseball Savant, and the shifts were not too extreme. I never saw the shortstop playing deeper than the edge of the grass, so the new rule is irrelevant there. I did see the second baseman playing maybe 5-10 feet to the left of the new line behind second base sometimes, but other times they were already positioned basically up the middle on the right side. So some teams will have to change their preferred defensive alignments against him a little bit, and he will probably get a hole up the middle to the left side of second base more often, and maybe a slightly bigger seam between the SS and third baseman. I think he can still be shifted somewhat effectively. Overall, the new rule doesn't affect RH shifts too much. The biggest change will still be for LH hitters who get the second baseman in right field all the time. Still not sure how much of a difference that will make in the final stats either.

This is really interesting and surprising. I am wondering how much different the shifts on him will actually be under the new rules though. I don't really recall what opposing defenses did against him, but RH shifts are usually less extreme. I can't recall many times the SS was actually playing on the grass, and they wouldn't throw him out from there anyway. It should probably open slightly larger holes on the left side, but I don't think it'll be a huge difference.

I like Nowlin as a pick to click. I liked the ranking at #21 from TD after he didn't even seem to be on the radar for a few other lists I've seen. I might move him up a couple of spots already, but I could see him moving into the top 10 quickly this season if he continues to refine his control and secondaries. There were a couple of low money IFA signees from last year that performed well in the DSL. I don't expect them all to transition to the states seamlessly, but I think one of them will look good in the FCL and raise his profile significantly. Anderson Nova, Daniel Pena, and Isaac Pena are 3 that I'll be watching in the FCL boxscores.

So normally I'd argue that "clutch" performance, or lack thereof, is mostly just random luck, and I still think it is in most situations. In Pagan's case, I do think there is something there. He's been way worse in high leverage situations. For his career he has a .847 OPS against in high leverage situations, vs about .660 in low and medium leverage. It's been a consistent story every year of his career too, even his best years. Last year it seemed like he would nibble and nibble and nibble in high leverage, fall behind in the count, and then invariably he had to throw a strike and he'd cough up the big hit on a pitch down the middle. So yeah, it seems like he needs to learn to attack and pitch more like he does in low leverage. Maybe a sports psychologist would help, but honestly he should probably just be a middle reliever at most. Not sure about Lopez, still too early to say that it wasn't just random luck. I do think some people are fooling themselves that there wasn't a significant amount of luck in his first half with Baltimore. I think he did make adjustments becoming a reliever, but I think it's kind of unlikely that he actually became one of the best relievers in the game when you consider his full track record in the majors. I think he should be a good reliever, like Jax maybe, but we probably shouldn't expect too much.

I'll be open minded that he can be better this year, but my main issue is that he looked like a low leverage arm when they acquired him, but they seemed to believe that they got a high leverage arm. And it didn't take too long before he was pitching like a low leverage arm in some of the highest leverage situations. I am hoping for the best, but I'm also hoping that the FO and coaching staff have reset their expectations. For me, he'll have to really be lights out before I want to see him in even moderately high leverage, but the FO seems to have way more faith in him than I do.

Figured it would be close, but that Lee would ultimately be the #1. I'm still in the camp for Lewis as the #1 prospect. I really believe the short sample from last year was Lewis finally putting it all together. Lee is not even close to competing on tools alone, and I still feel pretty bullish on Lewis being able to access those tools effectively at the MLB level. If the question is who do you value higher in a trade, I'd probably say Lee. Lewis will have over a year of MLB service time after coming back, so it will limit how much value he can accumulate while under team control. He also probably won't get a chance to accumulate a ton of positional value at SS. Assuming normal health for Lee, he will probably have at least a year more of actual playing time under team control. I also think Lewis would be the more valuable SS between the two if given the chance to play there regularly, but its a moot point for his value to the team unless Correa gets hurt or has to move to 3B faster than expected for some reason. But for the subtly different question of top prospect, I still expect Lewis to be the more valuable player on a per game basis at his peak, possibly by quite a bit. Even factoring in more health questions going forward, I see Lewis as the better player on a per season basis as well, but it could be closer there if Lewis continues to be a higher injury risk.

I have no worries about his approach at the plate. I'm not sure about the K rate though, so I'm still withholding a lot of judgement until we see how he holds up at higher levels. He's really a statistical unicorn. His overall offensive production was dominant, but it's hard to find other guys with that level of production without K rates below 20%, and often below 15%. Definitely the one guy that I'm most eager to see getting more playing time under his belt.

I read "3rd pitch" to be referring more to his changeup in that context, though I guess Law doesn't seem to love is slider like most publications do. I didn't realize Raya threw a cutter too. Having 3 distinct breaking balls could be interesting if he can learn to command them all, though most likely he'll have to focus on the two moving up. It might be enough to keep lefties off any one breaking ball, but if he's going to be a starter, the changeup will probably still be key.

I think Law is often a little too dismissive of undersized pitchers, but in this case I think we do need to pump the brakes a little bit on the Raya bus. His stats weren't amazing, the ERA was very good but not backed up by his FIP which was 37th out of 70 pitchers in the Florida State league that pitched at least 50 innings. The current stuff--a mid 90s fastball, potentially plus breaking stuff, with work needed on a changeup--is promising but not particularly unique for a guy at his stage of development. I think it's fine to look at a young guy and see lots of projection, but I do think that ranking him this high is counting on a lot of improvement that is not exactly guaranteed. I know I'm in the minority on this, but I'm not even sure I want to rank him ahead of Festa at least until we see more in A+, hopefully with an improved changeup and command. Anyway, I generally don't like focussing on negatives of prospects. I definitely see some of the Berrios comparisons with Raya given his size, sweeping slider, and even the slide step which is different but slightly reminiscent of Berrios. I'm looking forward to following Raya this year in a league with more broadcasts.

Yeah, Biggio isn't a great defender but he's close to average and it doesn't sound like Julien will be. I could see the value being very similar overall with some differences in the breakdown between offense, defense, and baserunning. Biggio's production did fall off the last two years, and as far as I can tell it seems like the main culprit is him losing some of his patience and expanding the zone a more often. I don't know if the pitchers found a weakness that fed into it, but it mostly just seems to be Biggio swinging out of the zone more often. I think Julien's extremely patient approach will translate to the majors as long as he's able to maintain his discipline though.

Schwarber actually had lower K rates than Julien through most of his minors career, including in AA. He also moved very quickly to the majors at a younger age. I think Cavan Biggio is the closest player comp I've found. Similar build, pretty much the same age to league at most levels, very patient in the minors with ok contact ability and some power. I think Biggio's 2019 statline is probably a good outcome to look for. Biggio's power seemed to be more fringy, as he's lost it since they changed the ball. I do think Julien's raw power is more legit as he really hits the ball far sometimes, even if his in-game power in the minors looks fairly similar to what Biggo did. So I do think Julien can maintain around 20+ HR power in the majors.