2wins87

Can't be entirely sure. Like Nick said, he had a velocity jump in high school, but hasn't really maintained it consistently, so the lack of progression there is probably a big reason Rankings for young guys always factor in a ton of projection, so they can be a bit dubious, and some might say systematically overly optimistic. HS pitchers as a class are generally regarded as huge risks who have a terrible record of meeting their early projections. There were actually a bunch of HS pitchers taken in 2018 with SWR. Grayson Rodriguez is an example of a HS pitcher who continued to improve and hit his projections, and actually moved up to become a top 10 prospect in the game. But he's more the exception that proves the rule. Matthew Libertore, Cole Winn, and Ryan Weathers are other HS guys taken ahead of SWR who also had varying degrees of top 100 recognition. But they've all had some stagnation or non-linear progression, and I think SWR still compares reasonably well to them.

Only one mlb start, but enough to get a bit more info on his pitches. I liked this chart showing his spin and break directions from baseball savant: A lot of guys have "over the top" deliveries, but his is about as straight over the top as you can get, so he does have that bit of uniqueness going for him. Don't--I can't stress this enough--don't take too much away from this, but when I was perusing for guys with sort of similar spin/break characteristics, I found this left-handed version: Again, it doesn't mean too much. When I was looking for fastballs with similar break I also found Chase De Jong. And this is late career Kershaw, who still gets it done but has impeccable command Anyway, like others, I don't think you can ignore success in the high minors. He will need to find more consistent velocity on his fastball; I know he can run it up into the mid 90's, but the 91 MPH in his late season MLB start will probably get knocked around from time to time. I think his command is pretty good for his age, so if he can continue to refine that I think he's got a pitch mix that plays as a starter. If his command stagnates then it's probably dicey, but that's where his youth is still working for him.

I was thinking about Jorge Polanco too. I think if Salas develops successfully he will be a pretty different player, but Polanco is the last successful switch hitter they've developed, and his development definitely had a few fits and starts. Switch hitting seems to have become increasingly rare lately, so patience will be key. I think this ranking makes sense given how young he is and the fact that he's refining two swings, I think we can expect a few adjustment periods. If Lee and Salas both reach their potential (maybe even throw in Yunior Severino turning into a switch hitting masher) it could be a luxury to have several very good switch hitters in the lineup. Even when Cleveland had basically nothing else in their lineup, the combination of Lindor, Ramirez, and Santana at the top was a gauntlet when they were all going well. No was no real answer for an opposing manager.

There are plenty of additional comparisons you could make though. Funderburk was a year older, and a third of his innings came in relief. He pitched 5 or more innings in only 6 outings compared to 26 outings for Varland (including in his 5 major league starts). Varland's stint in AA was also his high water mark for ERA and FIP for any minor league level/season, so he does have a stronger overall track record vs Funderburk. Probably you are right that Funderburk has been vastly underappreciated, because he has generally put up strong numbers throughout the minors. I don't know a ton about his stuff, but I think he doesn't show up on lists for the same reason that Laweryson isn't a top 10 prospect. He's succeeded with some deception and pitchability, despite not having amazing velocity or a carrying pitch. Probably his role in the majors would be a crafty lefty reliever, which is a lot different than Varland who so far has demonstrated that he could be a starter.

Not sure why Varland is being discussed in the soft tosser category. Almost half of his fastballs were thrown harder than the MLB average. Add in his well above average extension on his release point and the "effective velocity" perceived by hitters is generally above average. We'll have to see how his secondaries perform. Seems like he's already had some pretty good success with the changeup at the MLB level. He seems to be a guy who has been steadily improving though, so I think he will end up looking underrated here.

They've all got their strengths. Fangraphs might be the most useful to me overall, not just stats, but depth charts and prospect scouting reports. Their leaderboards are really flexible when you get the hang of them which is great if you're trying to look up something more comparative. My main complaint is that the memory overhead seems to get pretty high which is noticeable for someone like me that typically has too many tabs open, BBRef is more where I go for historical stuff. I also do like their minor league game logs and splits pages. Baseball savant has great granular data though I think it will take some time before there are more useful aggregate level stats. I think my favorite aspects is being able to get data on guys that are new to the majors. Certain metrics stabilize pretty quickly and you can get some better impressions on how they are doing vs just the top level stats which are often deceptive early on.

This is true, it's a little weird how easy it seems to be to forget how good he's been when healthy over the past 4 years. He didn't even lose too much power when they deadened the ball. I don't know if trust his legs to be healthy this year, but if they are, I'm pretty optimistic he can get more settled in at 2B and put up the plus defense that we've excepted, and also be one of the best hitters on the team.

This pretty much goes for everyone on the team

He definitely has a change. You can watch the latest prospect highlight video from Tom Froemming in the videos tab, which has a few highlights from a straightaway-center cam which is nice for really seeing the pitch shape. Looks to be in the mid 80s with a bit of late fade, and fooled a few low-A hitters at least

He's not in my top 30 either, but after his brutal start in A ball last year, his overall production has been ok, and for some stretches even looks good. Not good enough for a 1B/DH only, but 30 HR in 544 plate appearances since his promotion to A+ is more or less what they expected. The strikeouts are an issue, but that's not really unexpected either. The other thing that stands out is that his BABIP has been very low, consistently under .300, so if he doesn't hit it out of the park he doesn't get many hits. That's basically the difference in production between him and a guy like Wallner who also strikes out but has consistently maintained BABIPs over .330, often much higher. My first thought is that his swing is too geared toward fly balls, and he has been a little more FB heavy and less GB heavy than Wallner over their respective minor league careers. But he's also just hit a lot fewer line drives, which could be a result from a FB heavy swing, but could also just be an inability to make quality contact consistently.

If you don't believe there's any chance Lee or Salas could play short then I have some bad news for you about Tanner Schoebel. There are a few SS prospects that are sure things, and then there is every other SS prospect where there are questions about whether they'll stick long term. Probably the only reason Lewis won't be primarily a shortstop for a few years is Carlos Correa. I don't see any reason to write off Salas yet. Honestly I'd put Miller and De Andrade ahead of Schobel right now anyway. They've got SS prospects.

A comparison between Arraez and Julien isn't really very apt. I think Cavan Biggio is an excellent statistical comp from recent prospects. His K% and BB% from the upper minors are pretty close to what Julien did last year, and at about the same age. Biggio's ISO was a bit higher, but considering lower minors numbers I think they have a similar power profile. Biggio was around a 3-4 WAR player in 2019 and 2020, but he's fallen off since then. The main culprits seem to have been a big dropoff in power since the ball was deadened, and also a slightly higher chase rate, leading to fewer walks. I think Biggio's early numbers are probably roughly the ceiling for Julien, who will probably be a bit worse defensively. The keys will be whether his power translates to at least 15-20 HR in the majors and if he can stick to his disciplined approach against major league pitchers with better control. Not having particularly good contact skills, he might struggle if his approach slips a little bit, but I think his performance so far does suggest a solid regular in the majors with a high OBP and enough power.

Yes he would almost certainly be claimed and stashed by another team. Maybe Cole Sands is the most marginal guy now and might make it through? They will get two spots for 60 day IL moves when ST starts, but I don't think there's any way the move can be delayed that much. Could be a Kepler trade is in the works as well.

PThe team certainly could use some speed at times. Taylor was still 86th percentile in sprint speed at 31 last year, though he's never really been a huge base stealer. It's a good depth move. I did like Sisk. With Thielbar a setup man and Moran more of a left-handed righty matchup specialist, I thought they still could have had room for more of a LOOGY type even with the 3 batter minimum. Cruz definitely has potential too, though I'm kind of skeptical he'll ever really learn control. End of the day, both marginal guys that are never going to make or break a team, so really can't complain about this move

It still hasn't been very long under this regime to really judge their international signings, and I'd suspect that there may have been less turnover in the international scouting arm anyway. In their first year, they ended up voiding their top IFA contract with Jelfrey Marte due to vision issues in his physical, and used the money to sign Yunior Severino. Severino passed through several rule 5 drafts, but did develop some significant power from both sides of the plate last year, so he still may end up on the 40-man this year. Misael Urbina also passed through his first rule 5 unclaimed this year but is still around and still has decent potential. Emmanuel Rodriguez right now looks likely to be their next real international success, but the point is that international signings take so long that 5 or even 6 years isn't always long enough to really judge, and it's not like plenty of other teams don't whiff multiple years in a row on the volatile international market.

Moran and Jax were both drafted by the previous regime, though a significant portion of their development came under the new regime. Taking those guys out, I've redone the first column while adding their draft slot # and signing bonus to highlight this FO's draft & development philosophy. It's pretty clear they've had reasonable success developing position players taken in the first two rounds. Julien is the only 40-man exception, but even he got the bonus of an early 4th rounder as they used leftover pool money to entice him away from his senior year at Auburn. The pitchers have come from all over the draft board. Canterino is the only one with a million+ bonus and the only one taken in the top 2 rounds. This isn't by accident. Chase Petty was the only pitcher taken in the first round over 6 drafts, and Prielipp last year was only the 5th pitcher taken out of 16 picks in the first two rounds (including their compA picks). Clearly they believe that truly talented position players get picked over quickly and have to be prioritized early, while pitchers can be developed from later rounds. The success that they've had with some of these later round pitchers proves that they are probably right too. There is a disconnect here for many fans though, because I still hear all the time that this FO still can't develop pitchers. They do have a very healthy pipeline of mid rotation starters and quality relievers going now, but we have yet to see a front-line starter developed. I would say that 6 years of drafting isn't really a ton of time to develop an ace, which is always very rare anyway. However, in large part this is by design. They aren't really trying super hard to develop an ace when they are drafting pitchers mostly for bulk in the later rounds. They've also traded away two of their highest drafted pitchers (Petty, Hajjar), two others were draft deals due to injury risk (Canterino, Prielipp), and the last was Landon Leach, a cold-weather HS guy who flamed out (pretty common for that profile). Personally, I think their draft strategy looks great. Maybe I would even focus more on position players early on, since they have done well with those picks. What I would change is their approach to free agency and trades. I think they can fill up the rotation with cheap, controllable pitchers developed in house. They should then be able to take a gamble on a big FA contract or blockbuster trade to get their #1. The Arraez-Lopez trade is sort of a step in that direction, but I would still like to see them aim higher.

I honestly do believe that Kirilloff could match Arraez's performance this year. Not his OBP, but with a good batting average and more power, his overall value could be similar. I feel similarly about Lewis. It's not the most likely outcome, but the talent is there, and by this point both should be ready. It's been quite a while since we've had a Twins prospect both stay healthy and perform near their talent level in their rookie year, but it's not really as rare as it seems for top prospects to immediately establish themselves as stars, or at least above average regulars. I do think the first half of the year is risky. Miranda could hit a sophomore slump, Kirilloff could be rusty, or an injury could push Kyle Farmer into a starting role. I think by the second half, there is enough depth that someone will be ready to step up. I also think it's possible that Kirilloff starts hot and losing Arraez never really has a huge impact on the lineup, so we'll see.

Really, in the short term, the bet is more on Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis in the second half, and maybe Julien and Lee, not so much on Polanco, Kepler and Gallo. Kirilloff and Lewis in particular I believe have the upside to make it look smart, regardless of what Arraez does. But there is certainly a gamble being taken on guys that have yet to establish themselves.

I think he's in a similar tier that Martin was at that time but I think he's significantly different. Definitely more ceiling, probably a bit lower floor. Martin was already 22 and might be generously listed at 6 feet. So Salas has already shown more power at 19 than Martin ever had, and has a better frame to add more. It sounds like Salas is around a coin flip to stay at short, which is better than could have been realistically said for Martin. He's also a switch hitter. Honestly the wisdom of the trade hinges more on how well Kirilloff, Lewis, Lee, Julien, and Martin do over the next few years. If Lopez stays healthy and the FO is right about having the infield covered for the next 3 years, then the deal worked in the short term. Salas and Chourio make the deal smart in the long term as good additions to the next wave of prospects.

1 year sounds very aggressive. Maybe the Marlins would have continued pushing him aggressively, but he only had the second half at A+ and struggled a bit to adjust. I think he still has two seasons before needing to go on the 40 man, so another half a year in A+, about a year in AA, and half a year in AAA before maybe being ready for an opening day spot in 2025 seems like a typical timeline. Late 2024 wouldn't be shocking, but also mid 2025 wouldn't be too slow IMO. Basically, still a lot of time to see how he develops I think.

I agree that the lack of defensive accounting is an issue for WPA, but it doesn't systematically over value pitchers. Everything is measured from average. If a pitcher gets above average defensive plays behind him he will probably be overrated by WPA, but in the aggregate things even out. For an individual outing, WPA vs performance can vary widely based on the luck of situations, sure. Given enough outings everything that is just luck should cancel out. That's kind of the whole idea behind WAR. We don't need to add up every little contribution to understand a player's overall contribution, we can use aggregate stats instead, and come up with a more stable estimate of true talent that way too. Over a long enough period, Wins above average and WPA should theoretically measure the same thing. WPA is noisy, so I don't even think that a full career is necessarily long enough to say it is completely "accurate", but it should be long enough to eliminate most of the noise. Every stat is a storytelling stat at the level of an individual event. But they become statistics when the events are repeated over and over. WAR does address the degree of difficulty of starting too. Both at Fangraphs and BR the replacement level ERA is higher for starters than for relievers. So before any leverage adjustment, starters are valued higher on a per inning basis for the same performance. And no, of course leverage doesn't tell you anything about the performance of a pitcher, but it does, almost by definition, tell you how much of an effect that performance is likely to have on the outcome of a game.

Going to miss Arraez for sure, but definitely think they got a good return with Lopez + these two. A little hard for me to get a great read on Salas at first. His overall batting lines haven't always been that great, but he's always been facing much older competition. The K rate is solid though and he's already shown some power, with more likely to come. Could take a bit longer as a switch hitter to really reach his potential. He will probably grow on me as I get more familiar; I trust the evaluators on his potential for now. Chourio looks like more than a throw in to me. You can't scout the stat lines too much in the DSL but he had an excellent K rate, which I do think is meaningful, and a good walk rate too. He was also among the youngest in last year's international class.

What makes WPA garbage? It is a lot more sophisticated than game winning RBIs. Why do you think leverage adjustments overrate relievers? It already takes into account chaining. The biggest single season adjustment I've seen is about 1 win, and typically it's only a few tenths. It's usually not a very big adjustment.

It's true that Duran's splitter was his least effective pitch last year with a .353 wOBA against. That's not terrible but he dominated more with his FB and curve/slider. My guess is that the splinker was tougher against minor leaguers because it was so unique, but maybe isn't quite so unique to major league hitters. My understanding is that it was the result of the Twins attempting help him develop a splitter to use against lefties as a starter. It never quite developed the shape of a splitter and he throws it so hard, hence it became a unique hybrid "splinker". While it is still pretty unique, there are plenty of major league pitchers with mid-90s sinkers (Jorge Lopez for example), so maybe it is not unique enough for major leaguers. Since the difference in velocity from his fastball isn't huge, it doesn't quite function like a changeup, and MLB hitters seemed to have found it easier to hit than his fastball, probably in particular when he left it up in the zone. I remember in particular probably his single worst outing when the Orioles hit two HR off of the splinker, both I think middle-in. location wise. Hopefully he can improve on it this year, I think first and foremost with location, keeping it down where it's harder to do a lot of damage. I also think it might work better for him if he finds a way to actually throw it a bit slower, making it harder for hitters to adjust their timing between his FB and splitter, and also giving the pitch a bit more drop. As far as pitching more innings, even if he is less effective pitching more volume, as long as he is still more effective than the guys that would take those innings, that is still adding value. There are of course other considerations, i.e. keeping him healthy as well. There are also calls for him to go back to starting which would give him tons more volume, but starting is a whole different animal, and his lack of a true changeup makes me skeptical that it would work out as well as we might think. Something of a side note that has been on my mind: I think the value of a truly dominant reliever isn't always fully appreciated anyway. WAR calculations try to adjust for leverage, but I'm not convinced that they do enough. BR, for example, has the leverage adjustment WAAadj. According to them Duran's WAAadj was 0.4, his WAA (wins above average) was 1.8, and his WAR was 2.8. However, his WPA was 4.6. To get a different measure of his value to the Twins last year, my quick adjustment is to subtract WAA and WAAadj from WAR, and then add WPA, so 2.8 - 1.8 - 0.4 + 4.6 = 5.2 wins above replacement. Way above any of their starters and up there with Carlos Correa. WPA is very noisy and not very predictive from year to year, I wouldn't expect Duran's WPA to continue to be that much higher than his WAAadj. Still, if you check the most dominant relievers, most tend to have higher WPAs than WAA+WAAadj for their careers, which to me suggests that the leverage adjustment does not actually capture the true value of a dominant reliever in the highest leverage situations. Mariano Rivera for example has a 32.5 WAA and 10.1 WAAadj for his career--42.6 total. His WPA for his career is 56.6, so 14 wins better, increasing his career WAR to around 70, passing a bunch of HOF starters. While Rivera was good enough as a reliever that his WAR actually does compare favorably to many starters, I think the adjustment using WPA feels more true to just how good he actually was.

I'm hoping we see a bit more power this year but I'm very excited about Lee. I like that the promotion path they took also got him into two minor league playoff runs (where he went 12 for 30 with 3 2B and only 2 Ks, btw). I was looking at the other top 10 picks from last year's draft the other day, and I don't think anyone is worried yet based on performance, but the Twins have to be thrilled with how well he's hit at every level, all the way up to AA.