2wins87

I think he ought to be on the cusp of the top ten at this point, though I'm guessing he ends up more borderline top 20 on the next update. I can be a sucker for a switch hitting prospect with power from both sides, but he's got to be the best Twins prospect with that profile since Kennys Vargas. This isn't just one hot month at this point, the real power breakout came last year and this year has been a continuation. I'm not too worried about his K rate after one month when the pitchers have been ahead of the hitters. It has been coming down lately, and he doesn't have a track record of particularly high K rates, though he has traded a little bit of contact as his power increased. I think it'll probably end up at a manageable level.

I've starting digging into statcast data from low A last year, and Miller really did not hit the ball hard very often. He controls the zone well but all the weak and medium contact makes it tough to maintain a very high batting average. For him it seems to be basically waiting around to see if he can gain strength and develop enough power. It could certainly happen as he gets older, but I'm guessing he's still much the same as last year and won't put up a very impressive line overall while he's still just a singles hitter. De Andrade does seem to have a bit more power at this stage, but honestly hasn't hit the ball that much harder so far. He did have a great game yesterday with all 3 balls in play having exit velos over 100 mph, including 110 on his single. I'll want to see where he ends up in another month or so. I also don't know much about his defense besides the fact that they do keep playing him at short most of the time so presumably the goal is to keep him there.

I don't know enough about guys in that range to say much individually, but there seems to be a pretty big group of high school SS prospects that could project to be late first round or early second round picks. A couple will probably end up being mid first rounders, and a couple others might be tough to sign, but in terms of pure upside that's probably where I'd be looking at #34 or possibly #49. Right now that group might include Kevin McGonigle, Colin Houck, Roch Cholowsky, Walker Martin, Colt Emerson, George Lombard, Cooper Pratt, Eric Bitonti, and Adrian Santana. Maybe you could throw in HS catcher Ralphy Velazquez to that group as well. I don't know that they can get much of a discount, if any, at #5, but they have the 4th largest pool and even a small discount there could be a couple hundred thousand. I think they could easily maneuver over $3 million for their comp round pick if they wanted to, which would be first round money and tough for anyone to pass up.

Saw in the game log that there was an injury delay and Matthews was replaced. Anyone know what happened? I hope it's nothing serious.

Really nice tag job though. Perfectly positioned

Another pretty good start from Balazovic. Still walking a few too many, but a really encouraging start to the season. I wonder if he wouldn't get the call for an emergency start at this point if he lined up for it. Still as much potential just in terms of stuff as basically any other pitcher in the system. Seems like all his pitches have been working in AAA, getting lots of whiffs on his fastball, curveball, and slider. The changeup has clearly been the 4th best option, which is part of why I think he may still be destined for relief long term. Still, pretty fast turn-around after nothing seemed to work for him last year.

Saw he hit 2 balls over 100 mph last night including his 107.6 mph double, so he's hitting the ball hard out of the gate. Definitely a guy I'll be keeping an eye on as well.

I agree with a lot of your points. In particular I agree that the umps in the majors are actually really good at their jobs and are much much better than they used to be thanks to the evaluation with technology that we have today. I'd also agree that a "wrong" zone that is consistent is better than an inconsistent zone. But at the same time, if you just showed me the zone from Umpire Scorecards and nothing else I'd probably predict about 2 or 3 total runs scored in the entire game. Sure it was consistent and established early, but it gave hitters a terrible time having to try to adjust to strikes being called several inches off the plate and below the knees. I am a fan of USC's work so I have perused their scorecards from time to time and it's often not hard to spot the high and low scoring zones. You can say the hitters have to adjust, but I don't see any reason that it needs to be the hitters who adjust and not the umpires. I think I have less of a negative reaction to all the Ks in today's game than your average fan, but it is easy to see how a game like that one is counter-productive to the style of baseball that the MLB is trying to create right now, and I think it's fair to at least test how some sort of automated system might address that. I don't know how that game would have played out with a challenge system. I don't know what happens if the ump "loses" a few challenges on outside pitches early on. Is he able to adjust in game? Does his zone become more erratic as he tries to make the adjustment? I think it's probably worth trying to figure out these and other questions. I'm pretty sure that a more consistent zone from game to game would have more benefit to the hitters than the pitchers though, which is what the MLB wants right now and honestly what I'd like to see as well. I'm sure we have been getting closer to the ideal consistent zone, but I don't know how close we can get only through retrospective performance evaluation, especially when the worst performing umps can't simply be removed from their MLB jobs. I'm still not entirely sure where I fall on ABS systems, but I think a challenge system is interesting in keeping things essentially the way they are, but providing a more immediate feedback systems for umps. I want to have an open mind on it; if the umps found it too hard to adjust or too intrusive in some other way I'd probably want to reconsider, but I see a lot of potential upside so I think the minor league experiment is a good idea.

I'm surprised to see the Padres only middle of the pack offensively so far. Machado and Soto are having somewhat down years but much of the lineup seems to be hitting fine. I think the Twins offense will need to show up at home. Hopefully the pitching can keep the Padres offense down somewhat, but I don't think they will be winning any 2-1 or 3-2 games in this series. Varland has pitched a little better than his ERA would suggest. I'm hoping he will have a better result to show for his efforts at the end of his next outing, but he will have to navigate a few dangerous hitters. I'm hoping for 2 of 3 as the bats wake up on their return home. But I'm not feeling too confident with how the lineup has looked lately.

#9 in HR, and those are pretty important for scoring runs. Fangraphs has their expected runs per game at 4.29 projected via "BaseRuns" vs 4.34 actual, so the runs scored does match up pretty well with the overall offensive output. So overall their offense has been ok when you consider the power at the same time as the low OBP. Have they been unlucky in other ways so far? They do have the second lowest BABIP but also the second highest flyball rate, so the BABIP is not exactly fluky. Their xBA from baseball savant is .231 vs .220 actual. And their xWOBA is .316 vs .304 actual. So they've been a mediocre offense that has basically scored about as expected based on their batted ball outcomes, and have probably had a slightly bad luck on their outcomes based on their quality of contact.

1. Brooks Lee 2. Royce Lewis 3. Edouard Julien 4. Emmanuel Rodriguez 5. Louie Varland 6. David Festa 7. Matt Wallner 8. Connor Prielipp 9. Simeon Woods-Richardson 10. Austin Martin 11. Marco Raya 12. Yasser Mercedes 13. Noah Miller 14. Yunior Severino 15. Brent Headrick 16. Jordan Balazovic 17. Jose Salas 18. Matt Canterino 19. Jose Rodriguez 20. Jaylen Nowlin

At the time, Baddoo had missed most of 2019 after TJ, and then I'm not sure what kind of instruction he got in 2020 covid year. I don't think he was in St. Paul but maybe got some extended spring training. His last level was high-A. Wells had missed all of 2019 with TJ, and then pitched only in St. Paul in 2020. His last level was AA and he was 26 when the Orioles took him in the draft. I don't think we even need to know who else was protected to know that neither seemed like a must protect prior to the rule-5 draft. It was an entirely retrospective argument, and the decision doesn't even look that bad now that we have a couple years of major league track record for Wells and Baddoo. Some guys that were protected that year IIRC: Kirilloff, Rooker, Celestino, Balazovic

Is it? The Ryan regime had a string of much worse drafts for several years prior, so it is much better in comparison. But so far it seems decent with the potential to be pretty good. As these things go, even 7 years is usually not enough time to judge a draft, give it another 2 or 3 years and we should actually have a decent idea. So far the two highest WAR producers are Wells and Baddoo, but I don't think either were mistakes that they were left unprotected, especially considering the injuries that meant neither had played competitively for almost 2 years when each was selected. Baddoo is looking like a rookie fluke at this point. I think he can get back to being an average-ish hitter with average-ish defense in a corner outfield spot. But that is more of a 4th outfielder role on a good team. Similarly with Wells, I think he is a solid back of the rotation starter or maybe a solid middle reliever, but I'm not buying his early success this season. He's an extreme flyball pitcher who doesn't strike out that many. It's a recipe for giving up tons of homers, which he's done. The early ERA this year isn't backed by his peripherals. A back of the rotation guy out of the 15th round is still a good developmental outcome by the Twins/Orioles, but again, not a huge building block either. As for the guys that are still with the Twins org, I give the new regime a lot of credit for turning Jax into a good late innings reliever. It's a pretty good outcome for a 3rd round pick. I think Balazovic still has a good shot at being a good reliever as well, so that would also be a pretty good outcome. Kirilloff and Miranda still have the potential to make or break the draft. I still have faith in Kirilloff becoming a really good major league hitter, but it's still up in the air. On Miranda, I'm worried that we're seeing the return of the pre-2021 version. He's making plenty of contact but just so much weak contact. I don't know what happened to all the hard contact from the last two years, but I hope it comes back because he's not going to keep his bat in the lineup with his defense. If one of those two goes on to have a couple of borderline All-star level seasons, then I don't think it's hard to call it a pretty successful draft. If both do, then I might even say great draft. Right now it still feels too early.

LuJames Groover III also has the distinction of having probably one of the best two names in the draft, with Nazzan Zanetello being the competition.

The reaction against Kepler is definitely overblown. I've heard takes that make it sound like he's been useless outside of his one All-star season, when in reality he's been a steadily solid starting caliber player every year. I feel like most guys who who are solid regulars with one good year *cough* Rosario *cough* tend to be remembered more fondly for whatever reason. So much of his value being tied to his defense rather than offense is probably a big part of it. I think I blame Gleeman partly who probably has a lot of influence over the opinions of very online fans like myself. To be fair to him, I think his point has more been that there has never been any evidence that Kepler was poised for a breakout, despite that common narrative, since his contact quality has always been weak overall. He is right about that point, but harping on it over and over again over the years probably helps to feed the negative narratives around Kepler. Anyway, if I had one knock on Kepler it would be that he seems to have been resistant to playing center in the past when he could have been very useful there with his defensive skillset in Buxton's many absences. It seems he never really got comfortable there but I still think he could have if he allowed himself, and instead the team seemed to have given up on forcing the issue and settled for lesser defensive options.

Teel at #6 is interesting. He's definitely been moving up boards everywhere but I don't think he's been in the top 10 elsewhere. I wonder if he could end up being the potential discount pick at #5. Probably not too much of a discount wherever he ends up though.

Now that the college and high school seasons are well underway we can start paying more attention to mock drafts. They are probably not super predictive yet, but can at least give us an idea of who could actually be available. Most recently, MLB.com put out a first round: https://www.mlb.com/news/first-mlb-mock-draft-2023, and individual top ten mocks by Callis and Mayo: https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-predicts-top-picks-2023-mlb-draft?t=mlb-draft-coverage FWIW, the Twins end up with Max Clark in the first round Mock and in Callis's mock, and Mayo has Langford falling. There seems to be a consensus top 5 developing in the industry, with Crews and Skenes probably gone but Langford or one of the top HS outfielders ending up with the Twins. In the second half of the first round, their mock has a bit of a run on high schoolers. There seems to be around 2 dozen high schoolers with legitimate first round aspirations this year, so it's not hard to see that happening, though as their bonus demands become more clear, some will drop out due to being more or less unsignable. There are two thoughts that I have on how this dynamic could play out. 1) There could be a few big college bats, e.g. Brock Wilken, that fall out of the first round and are available to the Twins in their comp and/or 2nd round pick. Given their history, I could see the Twins jumping at a good college bat there. 2) If they save some money with their first pick, they could make a run at one or maybe two of the high school prospects in that late-first-round tier. Probably #1 is more likely, or many of the high schoolers end up going to college, but the second and third picks by the Twins could be very interesting and talented this year.

Despite the records, I think the White Sox actually look like a better team than this Cleveland team. It seems it's been the familiar stars and scrubs again for the Guardians. It could just be cold starts for some of their breakouts from last year, but it could be regression as well. They certainly had plenty of regression candidates. I think Gimenez and Oscar Gonzlez will be better, but some of their other top contributing position players from last year are more questionable to me. I think Kwan is basically just the singles hitter that he's been this year. I think Naylor's breakout easily could have been a fluke. I don't really expect Ahmed Rosario to be much better. Beyond Bieber and the top of the bullpen, the pitching looks competent but not special. It's a talented organization so there are still guys that could step forward, and the pitching could get more healthy. But one month into the season they certainly don't look like the team to beat in the central anymore. I'm hoping they take 2 of 3 in Cleveland. But missing Bieber, so they should have a pretty good shot of putting up runs in every game. At least we can hope.

Not really a great win. Without Anderson rushing and flubbing a ground ball as Larnach tried for third, I don't think any of the runs would have come in that inning. Although I'm kind of surprised it took that long for the white Sox defense to give up runs after what they looked like in the first series. Anyway, good to see the bullpen hold down the game after a week of looking pretty leaky. Good to see Correa finally contributing on offense pretty much every game. Good to see Lopez getting back on track after a couple of iffy starts. And good to see them avoid getting swept out of Chicago.

I think there is some strong evidence that Rooker has turned a corner. He could go on to have a good career with the A's, or some other team. I hope he does find some sustained success after struggling on the cusp for several years. But of course the A's were never involved in a trade for Rooker, so no, it'll never be the "Rooker trade". The Padres never got any production from Rooker in the trade. If it's remembered at all, it'll probably be the seemingly big trade that was actually a nothing trade.

I just checked the data on baseball savant and it has his max at 96.6 and average at 94.8. That does seem to confirm what I've suspected that the radar gun on the Saints broadcast runs a little hot. But either way, his stuff seems like it's been pretty good this year. I wasn't sure what to expect after his pre spring training mishap, but it's been an encouraging start to the season.

Do you have statcast data on that? Genuinely curious, not trying to be snarky. One thing I've found in the past few years is that the little snippets of velocity reports or even watching velo on broadcasts, it often seems like minor league guys throw harder than they actually do on average once you start tracking every pitch via statcast and compare them to the league. That's one reason I've enjoyed being able to track statcast data on some of the guys in low A and AAA this year. Balazovic has averaged around 94.5 so far this year, which would be very solid as a starter, and is pretty in line with the Fangraphs scouting data coming into the season that he sits 93-96 and tops out at 97. Averaging 96 as a starter would be around the top 10% of the MLB, and it's never been my impression that he threw quite that hard. We've seen Jax touching 98 after being in the low 90s as a starter, so I'm not saying he couldn't get there, but all the data I've seen suggests he's more of a mid-90s guy. At any rate, whether he averages 95 or 97 won't be that big of a determining factor in his success.

His high water mark in his 1-2 inning stints to start the season was 96.7 MPH, so probably 100 is a bit much. But I do think relief is probably still his clearest path to the majors with a mid 90s fastball and two effective breaking balls. If there hadn't been two MLB pitchers going on the IL at the same time I wonder if he'd still be getting this start. Still, his early appearances have been encouraging, so I'm interested to see if he can get back to being an effective starter.

I've been tracking statcast data for a few of the Low-A guys for every start that it is available. Matthews has averaged 94 MPH on his fastball, which is quite solid. And he actually has 6 distinct pitches classified: 4-seam, sinker, cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup (the same mix as Sonny Gray). I wonder if they'll streamline the breaking balls at some point, but he has over 30% whiffs on all of them. Lewis has only averaged 90.5 on his fastball, but he has broke out a couple dozen knuckleballs, and the results have been as good as you might expect. Whiffs on 2/3rds of all swings against them. Someone--I think Keith Law--recently answered a question about why no one is developing knuckleballers anymore and said it really came down more to catching them being so hard. Doug Mirabelli had a job basically exclusively to catch Tim Wakefield for a while there. It'll be interesting to see how often Lewis keeps throwing the knuckleball and who is catching for him as he moves up. Both Cossetti and Olivar have caught for him this year, but I'll be curious if Cossetti and Lewis end up moving through the minors more or less together and it becomes a skillset for Cossetti to develop.

The Fangraphs writeup for Festa had a good summary of what they've been doing in the draft which I'll quote: "In the draft, the Twins have targeted big-framed, projectable college pitching — like Festa and the recently-traded Cade Povich — from mid-tier schools that don’t tend to max out their pitchers." Ober, Winder, and Headrick all definitely fit that description. As does Festa and Matthews and Lewis from last year's draft, and a bunch of other guys over the past few years. Every year, a couple of those types of guys take big steps forward and become legit prospects, and in Ober's case he has become a solid MLB contributor as well. It's a very good pipeline that still seems to be under the radar. I don't know that it'll ever really develop an ace but churning out solid mid rotation guys and relievers every year that are cheap and controllable is still valuable to allow them to sign or trade for top of the rotation guys (well, so far only trading, not signing unless you count Lopez's extension).