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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    The Gray question has already been answered, but as has happened to him repeatedly in his recent starts, his command completely fell apart in the 5th. I think the question on Garlick/Lewis is not so much why is Garlick 3rd but why is Lewis 7th. As someone who is supposed to mash lefties, we've seen him starting in the 3 or 4 hole against them quite a bit over the last two years. He hasn't done what he's supposed to do this year, but 19 ABs isn't a sample you can draw any conclusions from. You can certainly question whether they really needed one more RH bat over this stretch just for a couple of lefty starters. I have that question too. On Lewis, he's getting it done but he has been swinging at everything. Not sure if any of his hits last night were on strikes and only one was hit hard (on a pitch that was definitely not a strike). Now Castro basically does the same thing and he's recently been in the 1 and 2 spot, so it's not a full explanation. But Lewis definitely has some significant adjusting still to do if he's going to keep being productive going forward.
  2. 2wins87
    Given that spring training is a month and a half for pitchers, his spring training basically ended around early or mid May. I don't disagree that the opener is being used to keep their options open for him, but he is still stretched out as a starter. The 3 or 4 inning outings are a result of him being innefficient. It seems like his target pitch count has been 70-80 pitches lately, which isn't too different from how they were handling Ober before he joined the major league rotation. Realistically though, what role could Balazovic play for the Twins this year other than reliever? The rotation could be decimated, but Maeda is coming back and I think Headrick would still be ahead of him for now.
  3. 2wins87
    I think it was forearm strain IIRC. Hopefully he can be mostly healthy from here on out, but just getting him built up could be a project. He's pitched 32 innings in competitive games over the last 4 years.
  4. 2wins87
    If the Rays FO is so good and ours is so terrible, what is your explanation for the Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz trade? Seems like a much bigger fleecing IMO.
  5. 2wins87
    I have not been a huge fan of this FO's love of the positionless, college masher type, but when they take a shot at their guy in the sandwich or second round I'm fine with it. Sabato at 27th overall isn't really that different. And Matt Wallner is looking like he could still be the player that proves the strategy worthwhile. For a weird short draft, this could end up being very good for the Twins, though for their last two picks not the first two. Still, too early to tell is the mantra for basically any draft as recent as 6 or 7 years. Player development takes a while and first impressions in the majors can be misleading.
  6. 2wins87
    Sure they have to have those discussions, but we also have to discuss Joe Ryan, Brock Stewart, etc. at the same time. If we cherry pick the guys that got away and had success it's going to be a bad look for the development team. But they've had a lot of success doing the similar things with other scrap heap or minor trade guys.
  7. 2wins87
    I think about 3 more weeks of major league games and he'll graduate.
  8. 2wins87
    Ortega is a guy that hasn't been discussed very much but has been just steadily productive all season. I've looked at his exit velos in low A and it seems like he's not a guy that hits the ball particularly hard, though he's not completely without power. He does have very solid plate discipline, seems to have a knack for getting moderately hard line drive contact, and can run a little bit. Probably the next guy in line for a promotion to high A, though they'll have to move some guys up for some space in the young Cedar Rapids infield. Probably Schobel and/or Ross could be moved up around mid season.
  9. 2wins87
    That is basically what I am saying though. The offense was doing fine against Allen just hadn't bunched up their hits. Why play for one run in that situation? And if you really want that one run, why not just go for a safety squeeze in the next AB? I didn't understand it.
  10. 2wins87
    It's a small change but the total run expectancy for that situation went down. I have to think that the odds of at least one run went up significantly due to the possibility for a sac fly. That would have to mean that the odds for two or more runs went down by a fairly significant amount. So by the odds they were not going for multiple runs. Jeffers is slow but he also hits the ball in the air quite a bit and has a lot of power. Mostly I don't like giving outs away with the starter getting hit hard and reaching the end of his outing.
  11. 2wins87
    I'm generally still in favor of the long leash for starters, and Gray being the staff ace so far with a low pitch count heading into the 7th--pretty much a no brainer. I don't belive for a second that Gray's incredible success the third time through the order coming into today was anything but good luck though. It's a pretty hard and fast rule that every starter gets hit harder each additional time through the order. It happened to Lopez two days ago also. As long as the starters are being efficient and effective, letting them pitch deeper will probably be good for the bullpen and should work out more often than not. There are going to be a few more games like this one though, that's the trade off.
  12. 2wins87
    Was really not a fan of that bunt call in the sixth. It's basically a push in terms of run expectancy, from about 1.44 runs expected with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs to 1.39 runs expected with 1 out and 2nd and 3rd, but that wasn't really my issue. I don't mind a sac bunt from time to time even if the math says it's a slightly negative play, but it depends on the guy bunting and the game situation. I don't know why they're playing for one run there. They only had 2 runs off Allen, but he'd hardly been shutting the offense down. In particular they were taking good at bats the third time through the order and pushing his pitch count up toward his limit. Jeffers laid down a good bunt, but even if he perfectly places it he's not putting pressure on the defense with his foot speed. So it's one pitch and an out for Allen. Farmer as the lead runner also doesn't have speed so it's not even like he can score from third on most ground balls or shallow fly balls. Not to mention the fact that Jeffers has been hot, and while Castro has also been hot, he is still Willi Castro. He hadn't taken good at bats against Allen earlier in the game (popping out on the first pitch and then grounding out on a pitch outside the strike zone with a 2-0 count). I'd rather take a shot with Jeffers, and Castro still likely would have been up in a good RBI situation. Seemed like a momentum killer to me at the time.
  13. 2wins87
    I don't know how much of the early season data and scouting is getting incorporated into the reports from fangraphs. It's sort of a preseason list but a couple months late. Some of the writeups clearly reference developments since the start of the year but I don't know how hard they worked on upgrading every individual tool grade, particularly for guys down the list where a lot of the info could still be mostly from last year. They do have him 23rd which is higher than he was on the TD preseason list. If he keeps producing people will take notice and scouts will take note of any swing path changes or other adjustments.
  14. 2wins87
    I'm surprised how little criticism there has been of Vazquez since he has been a black hole in the lineup most of the season. We knew he was signed for defense, but it hasn't been fun to watch at the plate. Theres a level of offense where the defense just doesn't make up for it, I think its called Butera-esque. He has had a couple of good games lately, but more importantly Jeffers has been tearing it up in increased usage which has been critical for a couple wins. I've always been a fan of Jeffers and really thought he would be a seemless replacement to Garver with less bat but enough additional defense not to miss it that much. I had to temper my expectations last year that he would be that kind of starting catcher, but I've never totally given up on the dream. I think Jeffers' defense has continued to improve at the MLB level. His biggest issue has been a large platoon split which tends to kill a batting line for a regular RH hitter. He's actually crushed righties this year and I'm hoping it's a sign that he's just breaking out as a hitter.
  15. 2wins87
    I agree it hurts. I don't think we need to wait for major league action to say he'll probably be at least decent in the majors. I'll still take Kirilloff at 1B long term though, so you can regret the return value and maybe not holding on longer but he may have been the kind of asset they were going to have to trade at some point anyway.
  16. 2wins87
    A decent amount of the content was already out there with their imminent big leaguers writeup and updated top 100. But the writeup that stood out to me was for Yasser Mercedes. Longenhagen seems very effusive about how he's looked in instructs this spring so I'm excited to see how he does in the complex league when it starts up next week.
  17. 2wins87
    Mahle was a positive for the brief healthy stint he had. Injuries happen in baseball, especially to pitchers, so I disagree with him being on this list because of it. I'd say Jorge Lopez may be creeping onto the list at #5 for me. He's not too negative on the WPA list right now because he had some early saves, but it's hard to put any trust in him right now. And at what point does it become a fluky good half-season with Baltimore versus a disappointing end to last year and start to this year? I remember a lot of arguments at the time of the trade that we could ignore all of his stats prior to the start of last year, which always seemed absurd to me. Well, the career high K rate disappeared and he's back around his prior norms. Same with the career low HR rate. The only thing making him look good at the beginning of the year was his ridiculously high GB rate, but that's back to just moderately high now. I'm pretty worried about him going forward.
  18. 2wins87
    Buxton still leads the hitters in win probability added. I'm not saying that's predictive of what's going to happen going forward in clutch spots, but he's found a way to help the team above and beyond his overall stat-line. He's also been a plus on the base paths. He'll surely have another hot streak soon enough. It's disappointing that there's been so little time where everything has lined up with the health but he's hardly been a disappointing player to me. I do think that it's probably beyond just keeping him healthy and that he must still be dealing with inflammation or something in the knee on a semi-regular basis, so it's discouraging that he might not get to the point health-wise where he's even a half-time CF for the regular season. I do think he will at least get out there some in August or September.
  19. 2wins87
    Matthews got the first promotion and he'd be my pick too at this point based off statcast and stat-line data. His FB is generally in the mid 90s averaging over 93 mph and he's topped out at 96.3. Seems like he can spin a good breaking ball too though he probably needs to refine into one or two consistent shapes. His changeup didn't get a ton of whiffs in low A so he probably still needs to work on it and that probably adds to to his reliever risk somewhat. His control seems to already be really good though which helps to put him over the top. He had a miniscule 3.3% walk rate against low A hitters while striking out over 35%. Lewis is right behind him for me. The fastball only averages around 90.5 mph and has topped out at 93, but it has been pretty effective so I think it may have some good secondary characteristics. The knuckleball has unsurprisingly baffled low-A hitters getting whiffs on over half of the swings. But his slider has also been really effective so he's really got a full repertoire to go with the knuckle ball and it makes me interested to see how his stuff plays as he moves up. Culpepper is definitely intriguing beyond the stat line as well. He's the hardest thrower of the bunch averaging around 94 mph and having topped out at 97.5 in game. I don't know what he was throwing pre-draft, but based on where he was drafted I'm guessing he added a bunch of that velocity in the Twins' off-season camp. He probably has the most refinement still needed on his pitches and command, but he has the profile of that late round pick from a smaller baseball program that they develop into something solid.
  20. 2wins87
    Wow, what a night in Lansing for the Kernels hitters! I think they had a couple full weeks earlier in the season where they didn't even score close to 24 runs. It seems the 8 runs in the 9th were off of a position player, so take those stats with a grain of salt but still a great night for many guys. Watching Tanner Schobel earlier this year he looked like a guy who could punch above his weight though the stat line didn't really show it at the time. He's been coming on lately though. 7 game hit streak in which he is 14 for 33 and now HR in back to back games. I also commented a few weeks ago that Rosario seemed like a guy that could be a minor tweak away from a breakout and it seems like it may have happened. 5 HR in the last 2 and 1/2 weeks and the plate discipline numbers continue to trend in the right direction.
  21. 2wins87
    Well I've found him to be a very fun player to watch and that's still true even as a DH only, the last few weeks notwithstanding. I do hope he is able to get back into centerfield at some point.
  22. 2wins87
    I'm only replying to the implication that he can't hit in high pressure spots. He's been better than most in those spots over the last few years. He's also a bit more streaky than most, and he's definitely in a cold streak right now. He's better at drawing walks than he used to be though so the cold streaks are a little less extreme. Every baseball player goes through a lot of failures. I've really enjoyed watching him over the last few years. There's been some bad streaks but he's always come out of it and there's been more good than bad.
  23. 2wins87
    Leading the hitters in win probability added this year, second last year. I find it hard to believe you've managed to avoid watching every game where he's hit a huge go ahead or tying HR late but I guess some people just have bad luck like that.
  24. 2wins87
    It was actually the only bench move left. It's a good thing Castro hit it in the air though because Jeffers probably isn't scoring on a ground ball anywhere in the infield.
  25. 2wins87
    The funny part is that it is is true while Jeffers is still like the 2nd or 3rd slowest on the team
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