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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    I would generally hold off on ranking HS guys super highly before they at least get a taste of pro ball, but I could certainly see Clark or Jenkins ranking 1st in the system. Honestly Gonzalez is a very similar type of player to Brooks Lee right now, where the lack of impact on the ball is the primary thing holding him back from a more elite status. The fact that Gonzalez never played in a wood bat league certainly adds to my feeling that he needs to perform in pro ball before ranking him very high. I'd easily put him behind Julien who is my current #2 until he graduates in a game or two, but beyond that I'm still kind of unsure. I could definitely see ranking a few more college guys from this class ahead of Rodriguez, who still doesn't have much of a floor as a prospect. Teel certainly, maybe Troy, Shaw, Bradfield, Taylor, and Gonzalez as well. That's not really considering the pitchers either.
  2. 2wins87
    I think the ABS system has had such a huge effect on AAA numbers that I actually wouldn't be surprised to see some guys' ERAs drop by 0.5-1 between AAA to the majors. Obviously SWR still needs time if he is going to be an MLB pitcher in the future though
  3. 2wins87
    Falvey doesn't make draft picks, Sean Johnson does
  4. 2wins87
    But how many data points and differing opinions go into creating a single team's draft board? The Twins' internal draft board is also a consensus, probably based on a larger number of voices and data points that the public one. A consensus can still be wrong if it's based on a bad process, but I don't think the public consensus should really be treated as a higher authority than a single team's draft board. I do think there are probably a bunch of teams that have a better process/inputs than the Twins do. I'm ambivalent on whether the public consensus is any better.
  5. 2wins87
    Right, no one has scouted them so isn't forming a super strong opinion on them based on what a couple writers say also just an appeal to a different authority? I'm not saying the Twins are right; I don't know if there is much evidence that their draft model is very good compared to other teams. The public consensus probably misses on players just as often as any individual team though, except for maybe a couple of really poor drafting teams. I'd rather debate overall strategy than individual players in the draft, but of course people can express strong opinions on individual players on a forum. My opinion is that calling a single pick--that hasn't even happened--grounds for termination is just kind of silly.
  6. 2wins87
    They are predictions mostly. Some mocks are worthless, but the ones by plugged in writers like the MLB guys, Keith Law, Kiley McDaniel, etc. are based on information they are hearing from sources (lots of scouts generally), about who the teams might be leaning towards. In particular, Law having Gonzalez to the Twins is based on one of his sources confidently telling him that Gonzalez was #3 in the Twins draft model. We don't know who this source is. Maybe it could be a Twins area scout who disagrees? It could also be from an outdated iteration of the model or the source could just be wrong. We also don't know if Sean Johnson would overrule the model in certain scenarios.
  7. 2wins87
    No, it's a pretty bad offensive night when that was only one of two scoring chances in the entire game. Buxton hit it well there but there but I'm not even sure it was over the fence, and there wasn't much hard contact otherwise. A good offensive team will make several more chances, even if they are robbed once or twice. There's really no excuse for this team to get carved up by a lefty with a 6 ERA that they just saw last week. I'm not here being negative after every game, but that one really was one of the most pitiful offensive performances of the year in my mind.
  8. 2wins87
    I had no clue who any of the guys in the 6-10 round were, but they certainly sound like guys they could take, and it'll be fun if you nail one of those picks. If they end up getting an underslot pick at #5, I'm not really sure if I'd be crazy about White being the guy they give all of those savings to. There seem to be a number of high school arms that would slot in the range of their second pick. Maybe many of them aren't actually signable there, but there's just so much development time needed for a high school arm that I would have little confidence that a first rounder like White would really be worth that much more money than a projectable second rounder. I would much rather see them use money to land a first round HS bat with either their comp or second round picks.
  9. 2wins87
    Wow, I'd love to read everyone's scouting notes from all the times they've seen Gonzalez and the dozen or so other players that they are so confident are better than him. Ok, snark aside, I can't say I would love the pick either, but I have zero confidence that I know what I'm talking about, and only a small amount of confidence that the public consensus might actually nail this draft class. I like the contact and zone control in his profile, and a lefty hitting SS/3B is pretty rare as a type, so it would be pretty easy to find him a good right handed backup if he does develop into that role. I have to think that they see some mechanical tweaks to add more damage to his swing. I just can't really figure out exactly what their model would love so much about him if those reports are true. If they do take him, I will be patient, but if Gonzalez isn't a top prospect knocking on the door within two years time, I think it's fair to criticize. I do think this front office does plenty of things well, but I don't think they've shown that amateur scouting is really one of those things.
  10. 2wins87
    Good to see Nowlin having a good start after a string of mediocre to bad ones. Especially nice to see the 10-1 K-BB for a guy who's biggest issue is command. Salas has had improved offensive numbers every month, but still had only a .621 OPS in June (which speaks to just how brutal his start was). He's has an .833 OPS after just 5 games in July, which probably means nothing but it would be really nice to see him put together some sustained success.
  11. 2wins87
    It's easy to get confused, but he's actually the father of Mogh, from the movie era, not the son of Mogh, from the TNG era.
  12. 2wins87
    Jeffers behind the dish for both shutouts now. Not to take anything away from Vasquez, but I've really been impressed with how good Jeffers has become on defense and game calling. And he's hitting. He's looking like the player I thought he would become when Garver departed.
  13. 2wins87
    I can go back and forth between Jenkins and Clark, but at the end of the day, I think if they are going to take a high school bat, I generally want the most dynamic guy available. It seems that Clark is that guy this year.
  14. 2wins87
    Just missed a Maddux by one pitch as well.
  15. 2wins87
    If I'm seeing it right, Twins are the second team to have two complete game shutouts this year. The Yankees had one from Cole and German's perfect game, so quite possibly the first team to do it without cheating. This rotation has just been so good.
  16. 2wins87
    Great catch to keep the complete game shutout in play!
  17. 2wins87
    Hadn't even noticed it was Cuzzi behind the plate before that call. Hasn't been bad so far but I wouldn't mind if he really starts expanding the zone now.
  18. 2wins87
    He wasn't stealing on the pick off. It was a good move by Marsh and Castro was sleeping just a bit.
  19. 2wins87
    Was working on an immaculate inning after the first two batters. He looks like he could go deep in this game.
  20. 2wins87
    I just think it's a swing thing. Rodriguez did have more walks than Ks last year. If anything his issue might be closer to Julien who can sometimes get into 2 strike counts by being a little too selective early. Rodriguez could probably work on two strike approach, but the most improvement might come from swing tweaks. There is no amount of plate discipline that could keep Joey Gallo from striking out a lot. He can't get to high fastballs that are in the zone. He misses other pitches inside the zone fairly often as well. I don't think a Sabermetrician would disagree with you on the SO/W correlation. Individual players can still excel if they do a lot of other things well, but it's pretty predictive for prospects as well.
  21. 2wins87
    This is the most important point. What Berrios is doing this year has no bearing on the trade. The return that they got was for a season and a half, and you could throw in some value to the exclusive bargaining time that Jays used to sign him to an extension as well. Berrios was mostly bad over that stretch, though they did sign him to extension that is looking fine this year. As for the trade, the value doesn't need to be super great, but it's fair to say the return looks much less good now. Austin Martin and SWR could not land a similar pitcher this year, so yeah they are losing so far. Given their ages, the book is not yet written on the prospects though. It's the bottom of the 5th inning; there is still time to pull out a win, though you might not want to bet on it. If Berrios continues to pitch well for several more seasons, we can debate if they made a mistake refusing to meet Berrios's demands for an extension too. They have managed to fill the rotation with several equally good and cheaper options this year, but those also came with some significant cost to prospect/major league talent.
  22. 2wins87
    He's actually super advanced at controlling the strike zone with a walk rate around 20% (Gallo is pretty good at it too, fwiw), he just has a lot of swing and miss in his game.
  23. 2wins87
    I do think that's part of it, but I'm not really sure that pitchers that have pitched in both leagues have really been much worse in the majors. There could be some minor park effects and the fact that the defense is a bit worse also. The international league has generally had a bit higher run environment in past years. I think the biggest difference between AAA and the majors this year has got to be the ABS systems in AAA. I think MLB umps expand the zone much more often than they miss strikes. Getting ahead in counts is very beneficial to the hitters, and the walk rates are also quite a bit higher in AAA. The Saints are one of the better offensive teams in the league, but the run environment is much higher this year, likely due to the ABS.
  24. 2wins87
    Miller has solid but not outstanding speed. He also has a high success rate as a basestealer. Rosario is a below average runner I believe.
  25. 2wins87
    It's been a fairly successful signing overall, though I'm still not overly enamored with his performance. Gallo is a guy who appears to have been very un-clutch over his entire career. I would generally say that there is a lot more random noise than skill in something like that, but it has been pretty consistent. I like to look at outcomes vs average, first with the batting runs component of WAR, which ignores all actual context, RE24 or REW, which adds the context of baserunner situations, and then WPA which adds the context of score and inning. This year he's put up 4.9 batting runs (about 0.5 wins), an REW of 0.07, and a WPA of -0.65. For his career he's put up 40.1 batting runs (about 4 wins), an REW of 2.68, and a WPA of -1.98. He's pretty much always been worse when you add context even in his best seasons. I don't know how strongly to buy into this being "real", but I definitely wouldn't bet against a similar split next year. Sometimes in big situations this year it's kind of seemed like he gets to 3 ball counts and is just trying to draw a walk rather than do damage. That could easily be confirmation bias on my part. Maybe a more simple explanation is that he punishes mistakes but has a big hole in his swing. The bigger the situation, the more likely he is to be facing a better pitcher that is more likely to exploit the hole and not make mistakes. He is still valuable when hitting well. His solo homer ended up being the game winner a couple days ago, and he had a couple big RBI games earlier in the year. I just don't think he's ever been quite as valuable as his WAR would suggest, and assuming he hits well enough for the rest of the season to get a bounce back contract, I wouldn't want the Twins to be the team that gives it.
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