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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    He's strictly 4-seam, 2-seam, slider now. Hasn't thrown a cutter or changeup in AA according to statcast. Averages around 91-92 MPH with his two fastballs, and can touch 94/95. All three of his pitches have good but not spectacular whiff rates in AAA; the slider maybe could border on being a plus pitch based on whiff rates but I think it's more that he doesn't use it that much compared to the two fastballs so hitters aren't on it. So he doesn't so much have one carrying pitch but has kept hitters off balance and been effective with all 3.
  2. 2wins87
    He may have made mechanical adjustments but there is data on velocity in AAA, and in his last start he averaged 87.2 with his sinker, and he didn't average higher than 87.1 in any other start. He averaged 87.2 on the season last year, so his velocity has actually been slightly down. It's not that velocity is the make or break factor for a pitcher like him, but I still can't see the high reward side.
  3. 2wins87
    He had a 2.31 ERA in AAA last year. I'll let you look up his major league ERA last year yourself.
  4. 2wins87
    The point was always to have him as a backup in case there was an injury in the rotation. The rotation stayed healthy so he wasn't needed. I really don't think this should be something fans should be angsty over. He's not going to be good in the majors if he does get a shot somewhere else.
  5. 2wins87
    No move is better than bad moves... but still, I'm not sure how they could not even pick up another rental reliever. They have a clear need, it wouldn't have cost a big prospect, and there are several guys on the bottom of the roster who could easily be optioned And if they want to roll with their guys why not eat Gallo's contract and flip him for something minimal to let the young guys have a chance to play. I don't think Kirilloff's shoulder should have changed that unless the prognosis is months.
  6. 2wins87
    Good way to get on base in an 0-2 count. Now if Correa can do... something
  7. 2wins87
    Castro's reads/jumps in center are really bad
  8. 2wins87
    Really don't understand how they call the blocking the plate rule. I think they've called it against catchers too much in the past but based on past patterns I really thought that one would be called. Seems like Kepler had a very good chance of beating the throw had he not had to alter course. That was the explanation I heard for past calls. I really think they just flip a coin in NY sometimes
  9. 2wins87
    They have to still be working on a trade involving at least one of the position players on the MLB roster. No, they can't make due with 12 pitchers for more than a few games.
  10. 2wins87
    Nice to see Winokur make an impact in his first professional game. He did have 2 strikeouts to go along with his homer which fits with the hit tool questions in his scouting report. It'll be something to watch going forward but right now I'm just excited for the ceiling and eager to follow his development.
  11. 2wins87
    I read up on this very subject the other day. The maximum they can sign him for as a draft-and-follow is $225,000. But, if they do sign him, whatever it costs won't count against their pool. So essentially the DAF rule increases the slot value from $150,000 to $225,000, but it becomes a hard cap.
  12. 2wins87
    I didn't realize not going over was actually tied to a monetary benefit to them in terms of revenue sharing. I would agree that the the way the draft, team control, and arbitration are all designed to provide excess value to teams, going over by close to 5% every year would be a cost effective way to increase talent in the organization. Still, the way the numbers worked out this year, the difference between spending $700K over slot and paying the tax vs staying under and receiving the money works out to around a $2MM difference in their operating budget. Presuming that Falvey and Levine are working with an overall operating budget set by the Pohlads, it's not an insignificant amount of money to shift to other areas of spending. There also ends up being a bit of a game theory aspect among the revenue sharing teams, who in the long run probably should still find it more valuable to consistently go over their pool. Half of the revenue sharing teams did "defect" and go over their pool this year. But if nearly every revenue sharing team did go over their pool in a year, then the few that didn't actually would get a pretty big windfall. I'm guessing we've already basically reached the Nash equilibrium, which would suggest that the benefit of changing strategies one way or the other for any of the revenue sharing teams is probably pretty marginal.
  13. 2wins87
    The value of trading Gallo would be in opening the roster spot, not any additional help at the mlb level this year. I could see him bringing back a minor league relief prospect, the quality depending on how much salary they eat. But there are teams that would be interested in Gallo. Basically any team that is looking at Bellinger (other than the Yankees) would probably consider Gallo as a fall back. These comments from the Astro's GM definitely make it sound like Gallo could fit the bill.
  14. 2wins87
    Yeah the nationals have no need for Gallo or Kepler, but it's hard to see how the Twins would add another corner bat without moving one of them some other way. Buxton will have to be re-activated for tomorrow's game (I think the transaction actually has to happen today technically) and Larnach will be sent down. If Polanco is also activated this weekend as expected, and neither Gallo or Kepler is moved, it's hard to see how Wallner doesn't lose his mlb roster spot. Personally, I would be taking the best offer on Joey Gallo ASAP. I'm very comfortable with Wallner being able to at the very least replicate Gallo's production, with Larnach as a decent enough backup. I could also see a three team trade developing with either Gallo or Kepler involved. I'm asking for a lot for Wallner, but definitely listening to offers for Larnach.
  15. 2wins87
    Gut reaction just learning about the prospects now, but if I were a White Sox fan I think I'm excited about getting Quero, though I don't think the Angels needed to push him so fast, particularly if the goal is for him to stick as a catcher, and I'm pretty lukewarm on Bush who maybe can start but could very well just be a lefty reliever. I think Quero straight up for a Giolito rental is already a really good deal. Lopez doesn't really move the needle much but getting a pitching prospect included is nice even if I think he's a back-end starter or reliever
  16. 2wins87
    Luke Raley exceeded rookie service time limits in 2021 so he doesn't qualify. Yoshida, Jung, and Henderson all had much bigger national profiles, so I think it will be very tough to beat them in a writer's vote even if he out-plays all of them down the stretch. Would be nice for Julien, but I just hope he can help the team make a playoff run.
  17. 2wins87
    Was going to say it was an interesting challenge trade to swap two struggling major leaguers. It sounds like the human element for Lopez and his family might have been a bigger impetus though. Reflects well on both the Twins and Marlins that they were able to work out a deal that can hopefully help Lopez and his family. Floro's multi-year track record is a lot better than I first expected, much more in line with his peripherals this year. He's never quite been a dominant reliever, but actually a longer and better track record than Fulmer last year. I still think they could use one more reliever of similar or better quality, but actually he looks like a pretty good rental and they didn't have to give up any prospects, just the opportunity to try to reclaim Lopez next year.
  18. 2wins87
    BA had an article on his defense. Scouts didn't think he had the arm to stick at catcher when he was drafted, but he made huge improvements this offseason to the point that he's around MLB average arm strength now, and he's thrown out 31% of base-stealers across two levels. The overall impression now seems to be that he can stick at catcher.
  19. 2wins87
    The bulk of the promotions generally don't happen until several weeks after the draft. Wallner, CES, and Headrick were promoted about 1-2 weeks after the draft last year, but Varland, SWR, and Severino were all August promotions. Once the draft picks start to get assigned above rookie ball we will see more turnover.
  20. 2wins87
    Cossetti's bat has now been every bit as good in high-A as it was in low-A. He's definitely been the biggest surprise this year, and it sounds like he's done a great job putting in the work to shore up the concerns over his defense. I hope he gets a taste of AA after a few more weeks. He looks like a really legit catching prospect who could be knocking on the door during Vazquez's final year under contract.
  21. 2wins87
    Well, we could also give some credit to the front office for building depth and then refusing to give up on any of it even with half the fan base screaming for the under-performing veterans to be DFAd. That's probably a bridge too far though.
  22. 2wins87
    No, I don't think so either. It's possible the handshake deal with Walker pre-draft was actually under-slot and that was part of the hold-up, as they wanted to make a run at the 20th pick or something prior to this week. It doesn't seem like Jenkins was likely to go much higher so it wouldn't make sense that he could really be demanding way over slot. More likely though, they had already agreed to basically slot and it was something much more mundane. Maybe details emerge but probably we'll never really know.
  23. 2wins87
    They could still go over slot to sign one of the HS kids at the end of the draft, but I don't think they will. It looks like the 19th rounder Sam Parker could be a draft-and-follow selection, so they could still potentially sign him for up to $225,000 before next July if he attends a full year at his college. I am only vaguely familiar with the rules so I was just reading up, and if he goes to JuCo and qualifies as a draft-and-follow, other teams will not be allowed to contact him before July 2 of next year, which is only a week or so before the draft. I wonder how strict that is, are other teams' scouts not allowed to even talk to him? Presumably if he absolutely rakes in JuCo he would be incentivized not to sign and enter the draft. Seems like he would have to find some happy medium where the Twins still want to sign him but he knows he wouldn't get significantly more interest from other teams.
  24. 2wins87
    Funny that he got that exactly that extra $4500 they had saved up. I'm sure that wasn't actually the hold-up, but they are now exactly at slot.
  25. 2wins87
    Dozier was not a big guy but he did have probably two inches and at least a dozen pounds of muscle on Prato (at least as he's currently built). Dozier was able to get to power with more of a slide step than a full big leg kick, and probably that helped him to maintain his timing and good levels of contact. I do worry about Prato's size and big leg kick translating to the majors where pitchers are generally better at changing speeds and throwing off timing. He's shown a decent knack for contact despite it in the minors, but even now the power is kind of marginal and I do have a hard time seeing him getting to Dozier level power. I still see more of a utility profile, especially if the strikeouts were to tick up a bit without added power, but as long as he keeps producing I don't see why he couldn't be a major leaguer given the right opportunity.
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