2wins87

Please no GIDP

Alright, Lewis has had a couple looks at him now. Time to drive it somewhere.

I am surprised they haven't attempted a SB yet. Seemingly many opportunities.

I'm not sure how many times this can be said, but Rocco had among the longest leashes of any mlb managers this season.

Damn. Pablo has been so good this postseason

Or it's a big at bat to a really good hitter. Pablo has been much better with Jeffers catching so I think they gel fine.

No problem. Pablo still dealing.

Just what the doctor ordered

Lopez has an ERA under 3 with Jeffers catching and over 4 with Vazquez catching. Not to mention Jeffers has hit so much better over the year.

I think not bad. Just one bad pitch to altuve

Ugh. No more of that

This Astros lineup is not the Jay's. Gotta score some runs. Don't let Verlander settle in.

Ugh, I really dislike Altuve

Nuts. Keep doing that for for another couple innings and they'll break through.

Verlander not super sharp early. Gotta take advantage

I think maybe I saw him hit 96 or 97 in one of his last starts? Not sure

That would be equally good!

I think it's a great time to break another streak. Lost their last 6 divisional series. Get at least one of two in Houston and move on to the championship series in front of the home crowd. Let's go Twins!

Lots of people don't have MLB Network. Not ideal, but I just checked the fox sports website and there will be a stream there. You can get unlimited free previews if you use an incognito tab and then close/reopen, in case the Rangers/O's goes to extras or something.

I'll be curious to see who catches in this series as well. I was a little surprised to see Jeffers get both WC games after how they used him this season. I don't think they would have used him 3 days in a row, so Vazquez probably would have caught game 3. Sonny and Ober both had pretty much the same results regardless of catcher, but Pablo and Ryan both did significantly better with Jeffers catching. There is probably a lot of flukiness in that though. My initial guess would be Jeffers gets games 1,3, and 5, unless there is actually something behind the performance of Lopez and Ryan with Jeffers catching. Could depend on how desperate they are to win also.

If Ober has one issue as a starter it's also giving up home runs, like Ryan. Although he has been a bit better than Ryan at keeping it in the park this year, and also just a little better overall. He made a strong showing in his last few starts after his AAA stint too, so he's earned it. I believe his slider is a very different pitch from the last time he faced the Astros all the way back in 2021. Hopefully a little unfamiliarity on their part can give him a bit of an edge. He always seems very composed n the mound, I think he's ready for the big moment. Hopefully Verlander isn't quite as sharp as he was in his last two outings of the regular season. I think this team can go into Houston and surprise their fans.

I think the overhaul they made in the organizational structure and in bringing in player development people has been huge. Following the minors closely, and seeing all the big improvements from previously unheralded guys, I've never really doubted that under this regime. I have questioned some of the decision making around signing/not signing, trading, and self scouting. I don't think its fair to expect any front office to get all of those decisions right, and they have made some really good moves along with the bad. But they had kind of seemed to be pretty mediocre. Given some time, many of the moves that have seemed to be the worst during the knee-jerk reaction phase, actually don't seem so bad. I was thinking about the Mahle trade, and it is never going to look good, but I think it is interesting that a very similar package at the time could have included Julien and Wallner instead of Steer and CES. There is still a lot of time for this to play out, but right now, I'll take the duo we kept over the duo we let go. I don't know if either Julien or Wallner were a part of the discussion, but the self-scouting may have been better there than we realized at the time.

Odds after the WC round with the NL (Pennant/WS): Braves: 40.1%/26.9% Astros: 35.2%/16.9% Dodgers: 25.1%/13.6% Phillies: 20.9%/11.3% Twins: 24.4%/10.5% Rangers: 22.9%/8.7% DBacks: 13.9%/6.3% Orioles 17.5%/5.7% That's not bad odds for the Twins. The projections clearly see the pitching for the Astros and Twins outclassing the Rangers and Orioles. The NL is obviously more top heavy with the Braves, Dodgers, and Phillies all with WS odds better than half of their Pennant odds, so favored to win against any AL opponent. I do think the AL was (and still is) very interesting this year with no one team really standing out above the others. Houston has the highest odds, but I don't really see them standing out above the Twins or the other remaining teams, or even some eliminated teams like the Rays (who just played really terribly for two games) or Mariners whose pitching would have been a real problem for other teams in the postseason. Apparently the Orioles fans who awoke to a finally competitive team this year have had a beef with Fangraphs all year, and they certainly have a beef with those projections. I have to agree with the projections, that, while good, they overperformed in all sorts of ways this year. Though at the same time I'm not confident that they aren't better than I think either. I don't think Bradish is an ace, but he pitched really well for a full season so he might be better than I think. Rodriguez was really, really good in the second half, and he was considered a top prospect, so maybe he is becoming an ace. With the front office people they've poached from the Astros among others, they probably are about as good as any other org at improving pitchers. They could be a very tough and annoying opponent for a bunch of years to come now.

My initial reaction on Funderburk was similar, but upon thinking about it more, Paddack's best pitch is his changeup, and he has reverse splits for his career. I could see him being a sneaky option against the lefties in the middle innings. For that matter, Varland also has reverse splits so far in his career, and his changeup was his most effective pitch as an MLB starter (though it's a short track record). As a reliever he's gone more to the cutter and I'm not sure his changeup has quite the depth that Paddack's does, so I think Paddack would be more likely to be utilized in that way. That said, I could see roles for both Paddack and Funderburk. For a 5 game series with two off days, 12 pitchers is still a lot, and 13 would definitely be overkill, so I think Stevenson stays on the roster, and I think there will be pinch running situations in the ALDS. I really don't know who I want to drop out of the bullpen though. Funderburk seems like the most likely based on how this team usually values experience for these decisions. I'm not sure Varland's spot is actually totally safe either, even though he seemed to be the 5th option in the wildcard round, they might make a different decision matching up against Houston. It's a very tough call to me.

I was thinking about this before reading the post and came to the same conclusion for the rotation. I could see them swapping Ryan and Ober if they don't want to give Ryan too much rest. Given how they pitched down the stretch I would go with Ober though, which seems to have been their original plan had there been a game 3. Maeda should be in play in any game if needed, but could potentially pitch in both game 1 and game 4 presuming that Rocco will be prepared to have a quick hook for both Ryan and Ober. Based on their previous decisions I think they would be more likely to drop Funderburk than Paddack, but there is actually a potential need for a second lefty specialist against Houston, who could be needed to navigate Tucker and Alvarez in the middle innings. However, there is an argument for Paddack as well who has reverse splits over his career thanks to his very good changeup. He would provide another upper 90s arm, while also being a sneaky option against the lefties. I'm really torn on that one.