2wins87

I think the pitchers in that list are more a half or full step below Maeda, particularly looking at contract projections. Maeda got exactly the Fangraphs crowd projected contract, and the other guys with the same or very similar projections are Lugo, Clevinger, and Manaea. I don't know if they'll be in on any of those names, but I think there are still some better FA pitchers that could be within the Twins range. If they do sign one of the guys mentioned in the article I think it'll be a significantly cheaper contract. That could be a disappointment, but they always have a plan for the pitchers they acquire and it could end up being a better signing if their plan is a good one. We've seen it happen a few times now.

Seems like a reasonable deal, it probably would have been fine for the Twins. I don't know that I necessarily would want 36 year old Maeda on that deal though. The Twins are only going to acquire one starting pitcher this offseason. I think there will be better pitchers/values. We'll have to see what happens, but I'm fine with passing on Maeda right now.

Tigers also already acquired Mark Canha who I liked as a potential RH outfielder for the Twins. Lugo is one of my favorite SP targets. I have been assuming it'll take more than 1 year that the Tigers want, and very possibly 3 years as Lugo's camp wants. I think he has #2 potential with relatively little mileage on his arm, and unless he vastly beats his contract projections should be one of the cheapest options of that potential. It's probably safe to say that the Twins are at least talking with Maeda, though we've heard very little about who their top targets might actually be.

It's a no from me dawg. If they are looking for a RH slugging first baseman, they could sign Rhys Hoskins for around $17 million. This would probably require moving Polanco and/or others in a separate trade, but it is definitely doable within their payroll constraints, and they wouldn't give up anyone. In the choice between Alonso @ $7-10 million (Arb salary minus the proposed cash from the Mets) + losing Rodriguez or Hoskins @ $15-18 million (various contract projections) + keeping Rodriguez, I'll take the latter. I don't think Hoskins is too big of a step down from Alonso and I just don't think Alonso is worth Rodriguez. Also just not a fan of trades that require cash as the equalizer, I'd rather get the value on the field. I do like the idea of adding a big bat. Before we learned of the budget constraints, I was contemplating Juan Soto trades and would have been ok moving Rodriguez for Soto. I don't think Alonso quite meets that bar.

Like a few others, accidental post while messing around with the tool.

Yeah, not a chance. Even if they don't sign anyone and Buxton isn't ready to start the season, I'd say there are still 3 guys on the depth chart ahead of him right now. I could see a scenario where he's pushing them to consider making a move by midseason though. I'd be thrilled if that plays out. I'm curious what the minor league defensive metrics are on him as well. I've seen a few highlight plays, but I've also seen him take a few adventurous routes on fairly routine flyballs which make me wonder about the overall level of his reads. With his speed, athleticism, and arm, I would think he could still probably be MLB average in center this year, which might be all that Longenhagen is saying, but I think he still probably has room for improvement.

Not surprised the Twins might be interested in moving Vazquez for the salary relief, though I'm not sure how productive it would be for the team/payroll. I don't think they would be comfortable with Camargo as the primary backup, and I would tend to agree; I think he is more of a 3rd catcher at this point. There isn't much depth behind Camargo in any case, so they would probably have to sign another backup anyway.

Alonso has a lot of Ks because he plays every day and has had near perfect health. He's had well over 600 PAs every season outside of the Covid shortened 2020. His K rate has been around 20% the last 3 years. Only Kepler, Solano, and Correa had lower K rates than he did last year. If your main concern is Ks, he would be a vast improvement to the lineup. The reason I wouldn't trade for Alonso is that I think Hoskins is only a slight step down, and could be signed for a lower AAV, probably for one year, without giving up any prospects.

Yes either would be worth a trade, but I'm not sure it makes sense anymore under the new payroll constraint in the 125-140 range. I do think that the lineup needs a big bat, and either are good enough that they could change the feel of the whole lineup. Both would also come with a compensation pick attached if acquired in the offseason, so the Twins would get one year plus a pick after the first round in 2025. I think you are very low on your offer for Soto, unless the Padres were super high on Kirilloff. I don't think it gets done without a prospect in the 50-100 range. Emmanuel Rodriguez would make a lot of sense. Neither could be landed in a trade with just short-term or cast-off pieces, we would have to give up something that hurts. Your proposal might make more sense for Alonso, as Kirilloff would give the Mets a controllable replacement. Bottom line, it would make sense if the Twins were spending, but given what we've learned about their likely payroll, probably not.

Contract projections for Kiermaier: FG crowdsource- 2/$10M, Ben Clemens (FG)- 2/$12M, MLBTR- 2/$13M, Zach Britton (The Athletic)- 1/$10 And for Michael A Taylor: FG crowdsource- 2/$7M, Ben Clemens- 1/$9M I'd agree I'd rather have Kiermaier if the contract isn't an issue. If Kiermaier ends up towards the high end of the projections at 2+ years and >$10M AAV, I'd probably just as well have Taylor on a one year deal under $10M, assuming that is where he ends up.

Fangraphs is out with their top 50 free agents today. They also have crowdsourced projections on their free agent tracker now. I think their contract projections have generally been pretty good in recent years. A lot of their projections feel out of the Twins range now with the new payroll constraints we've recently learned. I think their could be potential fits for starting pitchers in the 2-3 year and $20-$50 MM total value range. These pitchers are: Wacha, Giolito, Lugo, Clevinger, Maeda, Manaea. Personally I like Lugo the best out of that group. Fastballs play well, isn't a huge flyball/HR guy, and even with the age maybe there is some room for improvement as a starter if he can get better with the changeup to lefties rather than relying so much on the curveball. He's projected at $13 MM AAV, though Ben Clemens projected 3 years vs the crowd's 2 years. I'd have some interest in Wacha too. I don't really see a great case for a Giolito bounceback so I'd be out on him. Maeda and Manaea would be fine to stabilize the back end of the rotation, but probably wouldn't have huge upside. Where else are there potential fits?

I've seen Edward Cabrera come up a couple times now recently. I'm guessing people are looking at BBTV values, but I take the fact that he is coming up a lot in trade discussions as an indication that he is probably way undervalued by their model. I think their model is good, but no model is going to hit every player with precision. I tend to think that for guys in their $10MM surplus value range the margin for error is probably big enough that their actual value could end up anywhere less than half to more than double the BBTV value. I would guess that the Marlins would probably value him much higher than the $8.5 MM on BBTV, maybe closer to $15MM or more. The Marlins do still have enough pitching depth that I could see him being made available. He still hasn't pitched over 130 innings in a year so durability is a question, and the other big question is whether he will ever develop enough control to be better than a #3/#4. I think they would try to move Trevor Rogers before Cabrera though. My impression is that Larnach would probably be a bit too light and Headrick doesn't really move the needle on the trade. Maybe Larnach with a better second piece could be enough? I'm not sure, but the BBTV value on Cabrera feels much too low to me.

The timing of the lost revenue and payroll cuts is indeed very crummy. They look to be at the start of a prime window of winning. If they would have even just had a minor cut in payroll they could have done some very interesting things with the roster to really push for a potential championship. The silver lining is that even running out their current team they would probably project for something close to 88 wins and a likely playoff berth. With a few mid to minor improvements they should still be overwhelming favorites in the central. I'm interested if a payroll shift will also result in a strategy shift. They are probably dropping from around 16th in payroll to around 20th, so they're still not as constrained as teams like the Rays and the Guardians, but will they be constrained enough that maybe they will need to act a little more like them. They've done a decent job of threading the needle by both trading away prospects and trading for them to get where they are now. To point #5 though, I'm really not sure if the payroll cut makes them more or less likely to trade prospects. To build the best possible team next year within constraints, trading away the farm would probably be the only way to do it. Long term though, they'll have a much smaller margin for error, and trading the farm could easily lead them to a place where they don't have a good major league team or a good farm. A repeat of a long stretch of terrible teams like the early to mid 2010s or mid to late 90s is the worst outcome that must be avoided IMO. They probably don't need to be as aggressive as the Rays who trade everyone as soon as they become moderately expensive, but trading from depth for young controllable assets probably needs to become a larger focus. They also probably need to trust their youth a little more rather than hoarding depth. They can't repeat something like paying $11 MM to roster Joey Gallo all year when he wasn't even better the Trevor Larnach, who could have at least gotten more experience and potentially improved more as a player. One other thought. The bubble in cable fees for live sports and broadcast revenue to teams has burst. Bally is the first big sign, but all across the league in the upcoming years, broadcast deals will be getting less lucrative and streaming will not be replacing the revenue at least in the short term. The Twins are among the teams getting hit earliest, but they are not alone and won't be the last team to be effected in this way. If they can manage to continue fielding strong teams with modest long term commitments over the next few years they could still emerge in very good shape relative to much of the rest of the league. But Falvey and Levine have much less room for error now.

This one is more fun than serious, but also not outlandish. I might do a more serious one later. The big offseason move is a trade for Soto. I'm including Emmanuel Rodriguez as the main piece. He has Soto level plate discipline that should intrigue the Padres, but he also has enough holes in his swing that I'm ok moving him to go big in 2024. Kepler might also be included in the deal, or traded elsewhere for prospects. Lugo has good upside as a SP at a bargain price (though I think it might end up a little higher than $11MM). They still need a floor in CF should Buxton be unable to play there again. I'd be fine with Castro being the main fill-in with Martin in the wings, but Bader also provides a floor in CF and also a RH 4th OF. I'm going without a true backup SS, dropping Farmer to make payroll space. But Polanco, Lewis, and Lee are all options to play the backup role in a pinch (with Lee probably filling the role initially in the event of a long Correa absence). It's a step down defensively, but allows for a stronger offensive team overall, and there is plenty of infield depth overall. The bullpen could still use a little help. Varland helps shore it up at the start of the season. But they will have to hope for a good pickup like Stewart or breakout from someone in the org already. Opening day lineup: 1. Julien 2. Soto 3. Lewis 4. Polanco 5. Correa 6. Wallner 7. Buxton 8. Kirilloff 9. Jeffers Tell me that wouldn't be an exciting lineup. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Juan Soto ($33M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Harrison Bader ($3M) Utility: Willi Castro ($3.2M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($1M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Seth Lugo ($11M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 1.81% under budget

I'm not really opposed to trading Polanco for the right package, but in terms of value I'd much rather have Polanco at $10MM (and potentially $12MM in 2025) than Farmer at $6MM. If the main idea is to make room in the infield/payroll I would start with moving Farmer. The next two years might be their peak winning window, so I'm only moving Polanco as part of a package that unequivocally improves the team next year (so most likely a #2/3 or better SP).

The contract projection certainly argues against the idea that he will be a free agent, so it seems like kind of an oversight that he's even on the list. It also makes a pretty strong case that he would be a likely QO candidate at the end of the year, which would also factor in to his potential trade value. I'm not sure the Twins would have much interest in a $20 million salary next year when their obligations on other players rise, so that might align their incentives even further toward a trade during the offseason when the other team would still be able to have the QO option. The projection does seem a bit rich still, though it might speak to how much his defensive value has been underrated by fans (and awards). If he were a free agent, I think 4 years sounds about right, so 5 wouldn't be out of the question, I would have thought he'd be closer to $20 million than $25 though, and probably below it. The first name I thought of that could be somewhat comparable was Michael Conforto; he got 2 years at $18 million coming off a lost season to injury. I always feel like I'm terrible at guessing contracts. But maybe I would have put Kepler at 4 years at $16 million ($64 total)?

Seems like Canterino could be a candidate to be a sort of bulk and medium to high leverage reliver. The Rays have had lots of guys in that role recently, and I've sort of expected the Twins to have similar roles, particularly considering Rocco came from that org. It seems that once a reliever has had success they are quickly transitioned into a one inning role though. I don't know if that is mainly Rocco or others in the org. It may have health/durability benefits, but whatever the reason, there seems to be a philosophy that once a reliver has thrown in the game and then sat down they typically don't throw again in the next inning. I still think a high-ish leverage bulk role could be the most valuable role for some guys, like Varland maybe and possibly Canterino later on in 2024.

It seems awfully presumptuous that Lee will win ROY (or finish top 3 in MVP voting) next year. Particularly considering he'll have competition for the award from Carter who you mentioned, as well as Junior Caminero, Jackson Holliday probably, possibly Yamamoto, maybe Wyatt Langford, among others. I like Lee but I'm not sure he's the type of player who I would put big odds on winning the award. He seems like he could step in and be a solid regular right away, but he lacks some of the loud tools that some other more volatile prospects have. I don't think the odds of getting the prospect promotion pick would be high enough that it would have more value than keeping a 40-man roster spot available for another player at the start of the season.

Lee's contact quality in AAA was actually quite strong. 109.2 MPH max EV, 102.8 90th percentile, 90.4 average. 48% of his batted balls were over 95 MPH and 60% were over 90 MPH. Compare with Martin who actually is more of a slap hitter: 106.9 max EV, 101.1 90th percentile, 86.4 average. 30% of batted balls over 95 MPH and 48% over 90. Lee's issue is more one of launch angle, hitting the ball on the ground too much, rather than contact quality. There are signs that he's been working on it. In 2022 his GB rate was close to 60%, this year it was more like 45%. I think his low BABIP in AAA was very fluky too, so he is closer to ready than many are assuming.

I think Mark Canha could be pretty similar to Santander and cheaper in terms of the ask by the Brewers, who might move him for a modest return in order to help them make their payroll target. I don't necessarily think moving Kepler would be a prerequisite for obtaining either.

Soto would be a one year rental in his final year of arbitration. They would then offer him a qualifying offer and get a compensation pick after the first round when he signs his mega deal somewhere else. The payroll will be in the $110-$120 million range after picking up arbitration and option salaries. It was $158 million this year, so even if payroll decreases next year, they still have room for a one year contract at $33 million. Especially if Kepler is part of the return to San Diego and the difference in payroll would be more like $20 million. So they are not handcuffed financially, the question is more would they be willing to pay the prospect price for a one year rental. I think a reasonable deal might be headlined by Emmanuel Rodriguez. I could see something with Kepler (to replace Soto on the Padres next year) ERod as the big future piece, and a couple lower level throw ins. Most likely this discussion is all moot, as the Padres probably won't actually shop Soto. But the Twins would have the financial and prospect capital to pull it off. Should they? Normally I'm not too keen to give away long term pieces for one year return, but Soto would significantly change the shape of the lineup. I think there's a good argument that next year is the best time to go all in on a "win now" strategy with the new young core in place. I think the front office should at least be considering deals like this.

I've barely used broadcast TV in the last few years, but with the current digital encoding technology, aren't most channels capable of handling 2 or 3 sub-channels? Going back to like 1 game a week on broadcast TV would definitely not be the way to get more fans, but could they use the subchannels to broadcast both sports and their regular programming at the same time? Maybe there are other logistical issues I'm not aware of.

Maybe the front office will use this year as an opportunity to reset the payroll for future TV/streaming revenues, which will take a while to return to where they were this year. I would think/hope that the payroll won't go down too much though, and will still be in at least the $145-150 MM range. They are also firmly in a window of opportunity with a new young core getting established, so I think it's totally fair to expect them to make short term decisions to solidify next year's team as much as possible, including probably some one-year commitments Obviously replacing Gray will be the top priority, which will most likely require more than a 1-year commitment, even via trade. I do think they need another bat as well, and I do think there could be some 1-year improvements there. It's hard to get true impact bats on 1-year FA deals. The only options I see that might be in that category would be J.D. Martinez and Brandon Belt. Martinez maybe could fit as a RHH, though he really is only a DH at this point, and the K rate last year as an aging player is a red flag. Belt could at least cover 1B if Kirilloff is out to start he season, which sounds likely, but seems less of a fit as a LHH and has been less consistent offensively. Either would feel like more of an improvement than Gallo this year, but wouldn't necessarily move the needle that much on their WS odds. There are potentially more options available via trade, though it's tougher to identify. The dream would be to land Alonso, Goldschmidt, or even Soto, which would definitely make the lineup much more imposing. They should have the payroll space and prospect capital, but it seems very unlikely that any of them are actually available. On the lower end, I think Mark Canha could be a very good fit as a RHH outfielder. He had a 120 wRC+ after joining the Brewers and has better K rates than a lot of the current lineup. The Brewers, always in need of offense, would probably like to keep him, but they are more cost sensitive than the Twins and have some big arbitration salaries this year. They also might be hoping to have Jackson Chourio in the outfield relatively early next season. Picking up Canha's option is evidently not a given for them, so they could probably be convinced to deal him at relatively low cost.

I came out around $112 million myself, though without Farmer. Add Farmer and my calculation would be about the same as yours.

Miranda has an option year remaining. No reason not to hold on to him for depth and hope for a rebound in AAA.