2wins87

Nice to see Festa's command coming around a bit. It looks like he debuted a curveball in this game too (just one, but pretty different in velocity and shape from his slider so it seems like it actually is a new 4th pitch for him). Threw a lot of sliders and got a lot of whiffs with it in this game. Also good to see Gonzalez have a big game. Super slow start but with only one K in 38 PAs. Also only 2 BBs. I'm not entirely sure what to think. Always a solid floor for guys that can put the ball in play that much, but it seems the approach may be limiting him a bit right now with a lot of poor contact quality.

We're talking about 2 weeks right now. He's only faced 2 of the the 9 other teams in the league. I'm very excited about the start and expect him to continue to be good, but maybe let him face most of the rest of the league before talking about promotions. If things get really desperate from an injury perspective for the major league team I could see him jumping AAA a little later in the season, but if the idea is just to get him to AAA, my question is why? The pitchers in AAA don't generally have any nastier stuff. They do generally have a little better command, but with the auto-zone, AAA has become a hitters paradise. And I imagine it would be particularly easy for a super patient guy like Rodriguez to get in the habit of just waiting the pitchers out. If the umps in AA help the pitchers out from time to time in hitters counts I think that will ultimately be fine for his development. I am personally more excited to see him continue to mash against the best pitchers in AA for a while than I am eager to see him move up the ladder just yet.

I don't think it's a large enough sample for xwOBA to be much more meaningful than wOBA. I watched him be a black hole in the lineup for an entire season. I think it's unlikely he'll be as bad as last year, but it's still too early to base my opinion on much other than what I saw last year.

The amount of love that Vazquez gets from fans is truly baffling to me. He has been really good defensively this year, true (and quite good last year too), but he's given back pretty much all of that value on offense. I'm more used to fans overlooking defensive value than offensive value. Kepler is a primary example in my mind. How many calls were there for him to be DFA'ed over the last few years? Not just benched or traded for minimal value, a lot of people thought he actually had negative value over several years and the team would have been better off giving him away for nothing 3 years ago. Even when he was a bit below average offensively, he was still a low-end starter due to his defensive value. I don't dislike Vazquez really. I think he probably ends up hitting a little better than last year overall, and if he provides equal or better defensive value to last year, he'll probably be worth around his $10 million salary. At his worst, he's probably a low end starter just like Kepler. I still find myself reflexively groaning every time he comes up in an RBI spot though.

I know last year mlb introduced their 3D gameday view which used player and ball tracking to make a similar representation where you could watch from a lot of unique angles. This looks pretty similar, but they seemed to have changed to a different overhead field view at least on mobile gameday this year. Maybe it is still available in the browser version? I haven't tried that yet. The 3D gameday didn't look great but I actually watched it instead of the broadcast at times last year since it was fun to be able to change the angle and watch plays develop from some unique angles. I hope they keep developing the product and making it publicly available.

Thanks for that. It looks like Julien takes a step towards taking the cutoff before heading to 2B. It's possible Correa calls him off but seems pretty clear that they both know that Correa is going to take any cutoff throw where he can get into position. If it was a RHH Correa would not have been able to get there, but in the LHH shift this is probably a standard play for the Twins and Correa. I love all these little details to the game like this.

Got to watch a couple innings of Matthews start and he did look great. I don't know that the velocity in the Cedar Rapids broadcast can be directly compared to statcast data, but his fastest recorded pitch in low-A last year was 96.3 and he hit 97 several times deep in the start yesterday. I don't think I saw a FB register below 95, while again his average was a little over 93 in low-A last year. I think we can be pretty sure he's added some more velocity this year. The pitches I think I identified as a changeup looked to be 81-85, which is a big velocity difference with the added fastball velocity. It looked like he was still throwing 3 distinct breaking balls which also appeared to have increased velocity from his time in Fort Myers. The cutter looked to be hitting the low 90s up to at least 91, the slider was mid to upper 80s and the curveball low 80s. Obviously he is still pumping strikes, but when he allowed some contact and got into trouble in the 4th, he did a great job of limiting the damage with some big strikeout pitches. I don't think he'll be in Cedar Rapids for long this year.

I think the second baseman taking the cutoff for a play like that probably is still standard. Correa was shifted behind second base for a lefty hitter, so it wasn't as far as it could have been. Julien's throwing mechanics seem to have been cleaned up a lot from when he first came up, but you still want Correa taking any cutoff he can get into position for. I would be curious to see how the play developed away from the ball. Was Correa the obvious cutoff man from the start or did he call an audible with Julien? Would've liked to see Kirilloff be a little more aggressive going after the ball in the corner, but he doesn't have much experience playing the caroms out there, and kudos to him too for making a good throw to Correa to set up the relay.

He was featured a couple times on the Twins Prospect development twitter during spring training, so I'm mostly going off that. Seems like he had a pretty good jump in velo based off the scouting report I can find at draft time.

I'll register my prediction that Jack Dougherty will be the biggest pop up pitching prospect this year.

Yes, I don't think they should, or will, have the same approach for every top starter prospect. I don't think they'll push his volume too hard for a while, but look at Soto's build at 18 vs Raya's at 21. Festa is also still very thin. The fact that the two current top pitching prospects both have serious durability concerns based mostly on build has colored perceptions a bit much on how cautious they are in general. There is a huge injury risk associated with every arm. They probably do want to save bullets in the minors, so to speak, but if he proves durable I don't think they'll be limiting him to 50 pitch, 3 inning outings for long.

If you count spring training it has been 4 games. Average FB velocity per outing was 93.1, 93.1, 93.4, 93.3. He hit 94.6 in the 5th inning of his last outing and his 71st pitch was the last fastball he threw at 93.8, so he maintained well for this start at the very least. Obviously we'll have to see him maintain it later in the season, but it's enough for me to call it more than a blip. He was pretty consistently averaging 90-91 something in every appearance last year. His current velocity is something that we haven't seen in at least 2 years I think, so it's encouraging. Some were pointing to his improved second half ERA last year which honestly didn't move me very much since it didn't come with a discernible change in stuff or a particularly big increase in strikeouts. The early velo numbers this year is much more interesting to me.

Woods-Richardson's fastest tracked pitch last year was 94.5, so the 95.1 was definitely a high water mark. More important though, he averaged 93 and change all through spring training and his first AAA start, which is a big improvement from last year when he averaged just under 91, and averaged under 92 in every individual appearance. Reportedly he changed the arm slot slightly to get to the velocity, though he still looks to be coming from almost completely over-the-top, so I don't think he's really lost much of the uniqueness in his delivery that is also a positive aspect for him. His fastball and changeup were dominant yesterday, with 50% whiffs on his FB and 67% on his changeup. Seems like he still needs to find a way to miss a few more bats with his slider or curve, which only got 2 whiffs yesterday and few whiffs in spring training too. I am starting to get optimistic about a resurgence though.

I certainly thought this entering the season. The season Condon is having is truly epic too though. A third of the way through the season he's slugging 1.185 and is on pace to crush the D1 HR record. I know the competition level in college can vary a lot from year to year, and you can't compare Condon and Langford without a lot of scouting looks at both. But it still has me wondering if the difference is going to be smaller than everyone assumed.

I wasn't intending to impugn the players. There are going to be some really good players drafted out of the high school class. That is just what I've been seeing about the class as a whole, e.g. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-draft-class-could-be-among-weakest-ever-for-high-schoolers/

Do you think the top end talent on the College side really ends up being much worse than last year? Seems like Condon and Bazzana compare well against Langford and Crews, maybe a bit less defensive value? And I've seen knowledgeable people put Burns and Smith in a similar tier to Skenes. Obviously there is no Jenkins or Max Clark, and the high school class sounds like it might be historically bad overall. Seems like the college class could more or less match last year's in terms of talent and depth though, no?

I personally don't think Cozart makes it much past their supplemental pick. He's a solid overall catcher with a good arm, and is having a good season at the plate so far. I think I might be inclined to pick him ahead of Lomavita right now I like the athleticism in Lomavita's profile, giving him maybe the highest upside defensively, but his approach at the plate is very aggressive and that scares me a bit. Really good power though, just think he might be all power without much hit and almost no walks in professional ball. Malcolm Moore is probably in that late first round to supplemental range too, and his bat is heating up after a slow start. There is a lot more depth in the college catching ranks this year. For potential second round picks I think Walker Janek is a name to watch. I also think Derek Bender could be a sort of Jeffers-like pick for the bat if they really believe he can be coached on the defensive side. Not sure how realistic that would be, his defense might be worse than Jeffer's was at the time of draft, I'm not really sure, just getting that from scouting reports.

I'm staying optimistic that it won't be a long absence for Lewis, but I do sense an IL trip. I̶f̶ ̶h̶e̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶l̶i̶t̶t̶l̶e̶ ̶w̶h̶i̶l̶e̶,̶ ̶w̶h̶y̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶ ̶L̶e̶e̶ ̶t̶a̶k̶e̶ ̶o̶v̶e̶r̶ ̶a̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶t̶a̶r̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶3̶B̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶s̶e̶e̶ ̶i̶f̶ ̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶n̶ ̶h̶o̶l̶d̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶o̶w̶n̶?̶ ̶ ̶H̶e̶'̶s̶ ̶p̶l̶a̶y̶e̶d̶ ̶a̶ ̶l̶i̶t̶t̶l̶e̶ ̶3̶B̶ ̶t̶h̶r̶o̶u̶g̶h̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶m̶i̶n̶o̶r̶s̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶m̶a̶i̶n̶ ̶o̶b̶s̶t̶a̶c̶l̶e̶ ̶m̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶c̶l̶e̶a̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶ ̶4̶0̶-̶m̶a̶n̶ ̶s̶p̶o̶t̶,̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶I̶ ̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶n̶k̶ ̶Z̶a̶c̶h̶ ̶W̶e̶i̶s̶s̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶w̶o̶r̶t̶h̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶g̶i̶v̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶L̶e̶e̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶t̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶m̶a̶j̶o̶r̶s̶.̶ Edit: Totally forgot about Lee's injury. So much for the silver lining of getting to see him debut. I guess the plan would be to have Farmer and Castro platoon 3B, which only opens up basically a bench role. I would guess Larnach I suppose. I'm going to choose to believe Lewis that it's just a cramp.

I'm not a lawyer but my impression is that wire fraud would typically only be charged this way when it was a part of more general criminal activity that might be harder to charge and prove, i.e. it's a RICO charge. Prosecutors have a lot of leeway in which crimes are prosecuted, and I think they would mostly only be interested in charging the people betting or wiring money if they believed that they had information (and weren't already fully forthcoming) on the bookmaker or other associated people who would be the main targets of the investigation. The criminal system probably does tend to be much less forgiving to those in the U.S. on visas, which could explain an attempt to shield Ohtani from whatever part he knowingly played. If the original story from the interpreter turns out to be true and Ohtani did technically break the law by wiring money, I still tend to think that most prosecutors wouldn't be that interested in charging someone as prominent as Ohtani for the role of helping a friend, and would probably settle for a fine, but I could be off base there. It seems like the Feds probably already have the bookie dead to rights. It could still be revealing to see what kind of charges they end up bringing against him. A lot of people have pointed to letting an interpreter rack up $4.5 million as evidence that it was actually Ohtani's bets. It is certainly still a possibility based on what we know, but I'll also submit that it's possible that the bookie wasn't actually a particularly good bookie and maybe that's how this is coming to light. Did he extend too much credit to Ippei and other clients and get caught somehow trying to collect? I've heard something to the effect of: "If you're not part of the mob and are able to hire a hitman, you've hired a Fed"

Early consensus seems to be in the 10-20 range, but I can see the argument that he'll either be top 10 or 20+ and with no in-between. Right now, I have Trey Yesavage and Jonathan Santucci tagged as college pitchers that could be available and types the Twins might like. If Brecht makes it to them, maybe the stuff is too good to ignore even with the control issues/reliever risk.

Besides control, the issue is, will he make it to the Twins? So far he's made it to pick 21 in 0 of 10 mocks that I've tracked. It's still really early so we'll have to see how he and the rest of the class shake out. Pretty crazy results so far though, K-ing nearly 50% of batters faced, walking over 20%, but just an .086 BAA. (all singles). Extreme in every way.

Yes it would have to be induced vertical break. I think that around 18 inches of IVB is roughly the cutoff between good and average. Given the time to the plate a 90 MPH fastball with 18 inches of "rising" movement still drops by somewhere around 15 inches under gravity+magnus force. I think most changeups and sliders do still have some rising movement, but drop more due the extra time to the plate. The additional drop under gravity for an 80 MPH pitch vs a 90 MPH pitch is about 10 inches. SWR's changeup should therefore be dropping about 15 more inches than his fastball. This looks roughly consistent with the vertical movement on his pitches last year from baseball savant.

This is interesting if, as I would assume, his version of stuff+ includes release point etc. in a similar way to Eno Sarris's. SWR has always scored high in stuff+ models despite throwing 90 MPH, and I think a big part of that was his unique release point. Something didn't quite translate from stuff+ to results in his case though. His release point will be less unique now, but if it is more than offset by velocity and movement then the changes worked. Will be one to watch this year.

Thielbar is supposed to be the #1 lefty if he continues to stave off decline. It seems like Okert will be the second lefty for now, and Staumont might have the inside track for the last bullpen spot since he is on a major league contract, and Alcala is as well. There is a good chance Funderburk starts in AAA. I would hope Funderburk will still get 50-60 innings and there is probably a reasonably open path to it. Unless Staumont looks great, I have a feeling they might treat any lingering pain or discomfort as a reason to IL him for more rest and work behind the scenes. He also does have an option and could just be sent to AAA. Alcala could be treated similarly, but he also has an option for next year so they will probably want to evaluate him against major league hitters. I'd say Funderburk is competing most directly with those two, and is the most easily stashed, or at least cheapest to stash. I would assume there will be openings early and often, but I kind of think Funderburk is the 9th or 10th arm on the bullpen depth chart right now. Like Varland, he's in the plans for unplanned events.

BA reported today that both the complex leagues are pushing their schedules up to start and finish a month earlier in response to the new minor league roster limits, so they will run May 4 to July 25 this year. If the draft ends on the date of the All-Star game as it did last year, the FCL will finish just over a week after the draft completes, leaving basically no chance for draftees to play in the FCL in the year they are drafted. Obviously this changes some typical development paths. College draftees will now always start in low-A or higher; no more short stints in the complex league, which is probably better for the HS draftees and IFAs playing in the complex leagues. The more raw HS draftees likely will not play in official minor league games at all until the year after they are drafted; the advanced high-schoolers will probably face a tougher challenge going straight to low-A. The players that do excel in the complex leagues will likely get a longer shot in low-A after playing the full FCL season; it's now possible to have essentially a full season of games split between rookie and A-ball, which again seems like it could be good for IFAs and many HS draftees that aren't immediately ready for A-ball the first year after being drafted.