2wins87

There is no 60 day IL in the offseason so he will count against the 40-man, but Lee doesn't need to be added this year. It could be a consideration to call up Lee next year but the arbitration/non-tender decision comes before that. They could still tender his contract and trade or DFA him later in the offseason. I think at around $1 mil, they might still want to bet that the .780 OPS in the second half of last year was real. There would likely be a few teams that would be willing to swing a minor trade at that price for a utility guy.

I think Gordon and Alcala might be a tier too low. Castro makes Gordon a bit superfluous but I think the FO probably still believes in him. I don't think they'll see it as an easy decision. Definitely depends on who they think they can bring in from outside the organization. I think the FO probably still believes in Alcala too, but maybe more important, there is plenty of space in the back end of the bullpen right now. They will be trying to fill it with a few guys with upside potential. I'm not sure they will be able to easily find many other guys with the same upside as Alcala.

They have a lot of money to play with this offseason, but in 2025 they already have a $20 million increase in guaranteed money from the Lopez, Paddack, and Dobnak contracts. They also have a lot of pre-arb and early arb players right now that will be getting more expensive in 2025. Even factoring in revenue growth and payroll budget growth, a front loaded contract actually does make sense for the Twins in their particular situation.

Currently 40 guys on the roster and 6 on the 60-day IL for 46 total spots. There are 8 impending free agents of those 46: Solano, Gallo, Taylor, Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Pagan, Keuchel So that's two open spots so far. I think Luplow, Stevenson, and De Leon are pretty much automatic drops. That's 5 spots and there are still a few marginal guys left on the roster. They've had much worse roster crunches in the past. This year is not bad.

Coming back on the QO would be great, though I doubt he takes it, it just doesn't make sense to limit himself. After that, I don't really think the Twins will end up with a competitive offer, unless they agree to something more front-loaded in consideration of their payroll increases in 2025 and his potential drop-off as he ages.

MAT is a free agent. They could re-sign him, but problem solved in the short term when it comes to 40-man adds. According to Fangraphs, Celestino was outrighted and just cleared waivers today, so that spot is already open. I'm not sure who you already have on your non-tender/outright list, but Stevenson, Luplow, De Leon, and Ortega are all easy to reasonable drops in addition to possibly Farmer who you mentioned. I don't think making room is an issue, but it also depends on how many additional spots they want to leave open for additions at the start of the offseason. There are also guys like Sands who they never figured out how to use, who might get dropped for a FA acquisition. I think the other add I might make is Keirsey for Stevenson (or at least in a similar role), but possibly a bit more upside. There are a few other position players in the upper minors that seem ready to get a shot in the majors, but I'm not sure how much upside other teams will see in them, usually there is some solid defensive floor for rule-5 picks. It's also just easier to see a pitcher, make a tweak, and then possibly have a bullpen weapon.

This is very well done! I'm actually pretty excited for this offseason. The first thing I noticed looking at the payroll and roster as it stands is that they have a lot more flexibility this year than next year. Lopez and Paddack will each get a substantial bump up in pay from 2024 to 2025, and more guys will entering/getting arbitration raises in 2025 vs 2024. The only substantial contract definitely coming off the books in 2025 would be Kepler. If they sign one or two large FA contracts this year, the 2025 payroll could get tricky. 1 year free agent deals are generally by definition, not very impactful. However, they could get impact through expensive guys in their final year of arbitration. Though probably a long shot, there are already several rumors about guys in that bucket. First, Juan Soto at $33 million projected. Do the Padres really care about clearing expensive contracts? It doesn't seem so, but if they do want to get something for Soto they could maximize their return by trading him this offseason. Second, Burnes or Woodruff for the Brewers. Always cost-conscious and looking for prospects, the Brewers might want to unload one of Burnes, Woodruff, or Adames. Burnes is projected around $15 million and Woodruff around $12. Other relatively large arbitration projections are Pete Alonso ($22 million), Christian Walker ($12 million), and Anthony Santander ($12 million). All of them would also be enticing. There is maybe some chance that Alonso would be available, though it sounds like the Mets would rather move other guys if they decide to try to free up payroll. The Diamondbacks and Orioles both have super cheap and young teams, so I see no reason they would want to move on from Walker or Santander. The Twins would have to sacrifice some solid prospects for any of these moves, but would definitely not need to move Jenkins or Lee.

I did minimal research on guys that might have something to be unlocked. I think Mitch Keller is at the top of my list right now. Gets ground balls and strikeouts, has a good fastball as a foundation, and throws three breaking balls but they are all pretty mediocre. The plan would be to try to tweak one of the breaking balls to turn it into a weapon and severely cut back on any of the others. He has two more years of control and was the foundation of Pittsburgh's rotation this year, so he wouldn't be easy to pry away, though they will be looking to get Skenes into their rotation next year and have a couple other promising pitching prospects in the upper minors, so I don't think Keller would be off limits. They would want young talent. I think a package could start with someone like Kirilloff with some prospects. Another somewhat similar guy with two years of control and a good K rate from a team that is definitely open to trades is Griffin Canning. The Angels are not known for maximizing their pitchers. I wouldn't be as hopeful on Canning though as his fastball is only ok and he gives up a lot of HR on it. It seems like the Twins pitching development is best at tweaking the breaking stuff, so I am looking more for guys with a good fastball as a foundation.

They won a wild-card series and went 3-3 in playoff games. Obviously you have to be much better than that to win it all, but it is still good to see them at least holding their own in the playoffs. To have this outcome after expectations in the preseason, or even the All-Star break, has to be considered a success. However, I think it's totally fair to not be satisfied at this point. They've now lost their last 7 ALDS rounds. Getting a win against Houston is actually a bit of an accomplishment in itself, but I still want to see them eliminating the Astros or Yankees. (Not sure the Yankees will be a powerhouse for a while now, but eliminating them in any form would still be sweet). I think you have to recognize there were some big positives to take from the the postseason. Julien was pretty fantastic in the ALDS and overall. I think he could still make strides in being more consistent at doing damage on swings, but he stayed within himself as a player and it translated wonderfully to the postseason. Lewis also showed that he has the immense talent to be a game changer. He still needs to to work on being more patient and selective, but if he has a healthy season next year I'm excited for that. Lopez also took the step forward into ace territory, very happy to have him on a relatively cheap extension. The #2 spot is still up in the air for next year, but it looked like Paddack might be it next year. Duran was great anchoring a mostly excellent bullpen. There is some work to do on the roster. Being the team that struck out the most got exposed in the postseason. They could use a bit better balance in the lineup. They could use another hitter like Julien, even with a little less power but maybe a bit more contact, to not let pitchers settle into a groove so easily. They also just need a little more firepower in general. I feel very confident in Julien and Lewis going forward. I'm more uncertain about Correa (even with a couple of good games in the playoffs) and certainly Buxton. I am bullish on Wallner, but he's always going to strike out a lot, and I'd like to write off Kirilloff's mediocre bat to injuries, but we still haven't really seen another level from him. They couldn't match up with the top of Houston's lineup, and that will be tough to accomplish. There's probably only one other guy as good as Alvarez out there, and we know he'll probably end up with the Dodgers, maybe the Giants or something, but not the Twins. They were more deep than top heavy, but they also didn't match up with Philly, Atlanta, or Texas in terms of lineup depth. Maybe the young core can make enough strides to make the lineup more scary, but I think they were just short buy at least one true and tested masher and a little more contact down the lineup. That needs to be addressed in the offseason. On the pitching, I think we finally saw the plan come together for the front office. As fly ball pitchers, Ober and Ryan are great for the 3-5 spots in the regular season, but we saw what can happen against really good hitters. Maybe one of them can take another step forward, but the pitching was never really the issue in the regular season or postseason. They will need to find a replacement for Gray most likely, maybe there will be a decent groundball/strikeout guy that they can tweak available via trade. There will also be a few spots to fill in the bullpen. Hopefully they can be successful with another Brock Stewart type project, but the core of the bullpen is there, it'll just need a little supplementation around the edges. I think we should be optimistic about the future of this team. There are some clear areas for improvement, but there is a core in place that will hopefully gain a bunch more playoff experience soon.

What do you expect him to do with a pitch three inches inside? That's not a pitch that any hitter can do anything with

Probably the worst strikebcall of the game at the worst time. Can't even call it framing there, umps just shafting this team

Lewis: give me another one, I'm ready to hit

Neris Lewis rematch.

Eddie!! Have faith Twins fans!

Great job by Paddack. Different approach on Alvarez there with the curves

SS and CF I think usually. Maybe the 2B too or instead of the CF?

I don't think the stats totally bear it out, but it definitely seemed like the hitters were better prepared for the better pitchers many times this year. It's incredibly frustrating to be this bad against Javier and Urquidy so far.

It'll be different as a starter, but maybe he'll be the #2 to Lopez next year. That could be a good top of the rotation.

Gotta let Paddack start the next inning IMO. He's got reverse splits with the changeup and has been efficient and good.

I get what's he's trying to do. Don't let the game get out of hand give the offense a chance to win it. At some point they need to get some length from their relievers though. The offense really needs to come through too

I get the move by Rocco mostly. I would have let Ryan try to get the 3 righties, but he probably wanted a clean inning for Stewart. I do hope he does use a little feel though. Stewart got through it in 11 pitches and he's one of our best relievers. Maybe give him a shot at the next inning

Might need to go 1-2-3 in the third to get more than a partial inning. Don't think they'd let him pitch to Alvarez with a man on

Damn. I was just about to say how they'd been under all his fastballs. Not that one

Nice pitch Joe!

Very nice indeed. I kind of had a feeling that he was going to go off again today but wasn't really confident enough in my feelings