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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    Clutch performance from Xander Hamilton last night, he was really fired up. I've been intrigued and confused by his performance this year. The overall line still seems pretty ugly, but underneath the hood it seems like he should be doing way better. He has an overall whiff rate over 40%. Just under 30% whiffs on the fastball, over 40% on the slider, and the splitter has been basically unhittable with a 67% whiff rate. I did catch the second of his two innings last night. While the splitter may be a good pitch he didn't seem to have any control over where it went last night. There are certainly some indications that control has been a major part of the reason his overall numbers don't look good. He did look dominant with the slider and fastball though. He's averaged 92 with the fastball this year and touched 96. We haven't really seen a clear breakout from last years' college pitcher draft class yet. Ross Dunn was the best in the early goings, and he hasn't pitched in 2 weeks now, though there hasn't been a transaction to any inactive list. Nolan Santos is another guy who has been pitching in relief and has been dominant most of the time. I wonder if Santos and/or Hamilton will get a chance to move into the rotation at some point.
  2. 2wins87
    I tend to wonder not whether Kirilloff is injured now, but how much of his struggles in previous years can be attributed strictly to injuries, and not at least partially to the difficult adjustment process in the majors. Having physical pain or discomfort would obviously affect his performance, but not always knowing the timelines for when the pain started and when the struggles started, I've always wondered if we've been using the injuries to explain away too much of his cold stretches. At this point, I kind of just think that he is a solid hitter, maybe 110-120 wRC+ overall between the hot and cold stretches. That's a solid starter for a 1B/corner OF, but not a middle of the order masher. At this point, there really just isn't any evidence that he can maintain a 130+ wRC+ in the majors for any extended period of time unless he learns to make adjustments more quickly.
  3. 2wins87
    Good win. Seems the bullpen will be looking a little short tomorrow again. I would expect another close game so hopefully Funderburk and Sands are ready to lock it down.
  4. 2wins87
    Not quite, pretty close to even though I guess. Bottom line, Jax is their #2 in the pen and he's been very good for several years. You have to be able to trust him in that situation. I like having Duran more fresh for top of the order. Had Jax put someone on, I think Rocco was ready to relieve him early
  5. 2wins87
    It was also the bottom of the order with all right handed hitters. Pretty good matchups for Jax
  6. 2wins87
    I remember when he was going through a rough patch last year he added it to the mix and it seemed to help get him out of it. If his slider and fastball are working he shouldn't have to use it as more than a show me pitch though.
  7. 2wins87
    Jax was only at 13 pitches. Potentially saves Duran from having to go 30 pitches for a 2 inning save. Could see Duran for the last out in the 8th or something
  8. 2wins87
    Jax getting to 2 strikes on Haniger and throwing 4 straight balls was the main issue. Raleigh is not the best matchup for him. Can't let that happen
  9. 2wins87
    I like bringing Thielbar in to face Rojas to start the inning but why leave him in to face Julio?
  10. 2wins87
    The Twins Prospect Development twitter said Bohorquez hit 97 with his fastball. Looked like he has a good power curve as well. Exciting stuff from a 19-year-old. From last year's DSL team I was intrigued by him and Miguel Cordero. Looks like Cordero is on the FCL roster as a 17-year-old, so hopefully he will make an appearance soon.
  11. 2wins87
    This is generally my thought process as well, which is why I was into Yesavage early, though he's now pitched himself out of the Twins reach. I will say that Brecht is an athletic multi-sport athlete who is relatively new to pitching, which is part of the case for him putting it together at some point. There was really no sign of improved control for the first half of the season, but he's walked a lot fewer in his last couple outings. If he sustains better control for the rest of the season he could look a lot more attractive, but that could also make another team picking in the teens more interested as well. Right now I like Ryan Forcucci and Gage Jump as guys with fastballs with great movement/secondary characteristics. Already pretty solid velocity for both but still maybe a little room for growth. More round 2 or 3 guys though with durability concerns. For their first pick I'm still thinking they should probably lean into the strength of the draft and take a college bat who falls out of the top 20. Several catchers in play there.
  12. 2wins87
    Alcala was not at his sharpest tonight but I do feel for him. He had a good inning, then really got hung out to dry in his second inning, a role he does not seem well suited for, and now he probably gets sent down for a fresh arm. The ump also started expanding the zone for the Mariners pitchers in the last few innings while shrinking it for Alcala which was tough. I don't know all the information from the training staff et al that Rocco might be working with, but not getting more length out of Ober and/or Sands does seem to have done them in. Maybe both 50-50 decisions individually, but they really snowballed into disaster tonight. If the plan was to go one pitcher per inning for 4 innings maybe at least switch Alcala and Sands in case they needed length for extra innings or the situation that ended up happening? Given the way the Mariners are built, it's a pretty safe bet that every game of this 4 game set will be close, so 5 inning starts and a bunch of one inning relief appearances are going to leave the bullpen usage chart looking pretty iffy. Anyway, hopefully tomorrow will end better.
  13. 2wins87
    I'm not one to complain about most modern baseball trends, but I think I'm sick of the slider specialist reliever. Even for guys where it works most of the time, I've just come to really dislike watching 60-70% sliders, constantly trying to get hitters to expand the zone, lots of balls and long counts, with no other pitch to get guys out. I never really trusted Wisler, Romo I guess was the best possible version of it as a guy who made a career out of it but even he wasn't always the most fun to watch and he did it better than anyone else. I'm not enjoying Jackson and Okert much this season, who teamed up for an all time ugly inning of just throwing slop pitches. When the hitters didn't chase they had nothing else to go to but a slider in the zone. A 3-2 pitch with no where to put Raleigh, everybody in the world knew it was going to be a slider. If he managed to locate it perfectly in a corner it probably would have been OK, but more often than not, it's going to be a less than perfect execution and it's either a walk or a ball in the seats.
  14. 2wins87
    Yep, get your best reliever in the game when you know it matters rather than planning for it to matter later. I think this is the "bullpen theory" that Rocco (and probably a lot of other managers around the MLB) is getting more comfortable with, and I agree with it pretty much 100%. It often amounts to using the bullpen sort of backwards where the best guy comes in to the 7th or 8th with a 1 run lead. But generally, when the opponent is down by 1, they will go to their 4th or 5th best guys in those innings, and if your offense can add a run or two it becomes a much easier save (or a non-save) for the 3rd or 4th best guy in your bullpen. One of the worst stretches of last year was in late May when they blew a number of late leads. On May 19, Duran hadn't pitched in 4 days and they blew 4-3 lead in the 7th going on to lose 4-5. Duran didn't pitch in the game and instead pitched the next day in a pretty low leverage 9th inning with a 4 run lead. On May 23rd, Duran is again fresh on 3 days rest when the Twins again turn a 1 run lead into a 1 run deficit in the 7th inning against the heart of San Francisco's lineup. Duran, once again, doesn't pitch in the close game but the next day, this time with a 6 run lead in the 9th. That's pretty suboptimal usage of a guy like Duran. Of course it is hindsight that they didn't get to a save situation in those two blown games, but that is exactly the point. We know that a 1 run lead in the 7th is a pretty high leverage situation, we don't know what's going to happen later in the game. I'd generally rather see the best reliever get in to preserve the lead (particularly if some dangerous hitters are up) and hope that they can either increase the lead or that the second best guy will be good enough in the 9th. Saving a guy to only pitch 9th inning situations is such a waste.
  15. 2wins87
    If Julio Rodriguez and Josh Rojas aren't among the hitters to most worry about in this Seattle lineup right now, then who is? Also, people seem to have really short memories on Thielbar, because I'm seeing this kind of take a lot. I didn't fully buy Thielbar after 2020, but it's been 4 years now and it's just a fact that he's a very good high leverage reliever. He is 37, so I get worrying that he'll lose it, but he's been good enough not to let 2 or 3 rough early outings totally change our view of him. Especially when we already saw the exact same thing in 2022, and he went on to be really good that year, and particularly dominant in July-September FWIW he didn't face 3 righties either, he faced 1 righty and 2 switch hitters, both of whom are worse from the right side of the plate. In a very heavily right handed lineup it was probably about as good a spot for him as any.
  16. 2wins87
    22 2/3 innings, 28 Ks, and yet to surrender a single walk or HBP this season for Matthews. Can't really pitch any better that. Definitely think he should get to AA this month.
  17. 2wins87
    I end up saying this in every Emma thread, but the walk rate in AAA is higher than in AA due to the automatic zone in AAA. IMO a promotion to AAA kind of just reinforces his passive approach. I'm not saying he couldn't benefit from some time there, but I'm not sure the quality of pitching is that much higher, so I actually think letting him see more of the pitchers in AA could be the right move developmentally for now.
  18. 2wins87
    Thielbar was in a worse spot at this point in the season in 2022. Then he was pretty much lights out for the rest of the season and finished with an ERA in the low 3s. I am always wary of the aging curve catching up to him, but he's been one of the best lefty relievers in the game since 2020, so he's earned a chance to right the ship. I'm not crazy about Okert either. His career HR rate isn't much better than Pagan's and his command has been pretty iffy. Still, it's way too early to give up too much bullpen depth. If guys like Okert or Jackson are struggling come midseason, I would hope they are willing to make moves. For now I think hording depth is still smart.
  19. 2wins87
    A little more surprised by this one than Martin for Correa. I still don't fully buy Bowman's numbers, but he did pitch well and will very likely get picked up by someone. Sort of expected them to kick the can down the road a little bit by sending Funderburk down. But with Topa also coming back soon, I don't think Bowman should have taken priority over both Funderburk and Sands. Sands has not only been really good but he still is one of the best options for length out of the pen, so I think that would have been tougher to justify. Probably the right move to just get it over with now.
  20. 2wins87
    He's clearly had an increase in stuff, and possibly an increase in command at the same time. He just refuses to walk guys and can pretty much always put it in the strike zone when he needs to. I agree he should probably be the first promotion and hopefully fairly soon. Morris has also been good (I think a little better than his ERA even), and like Matthews, an extreme strike thrower. Really not sure how their rankings will end up, but the 2022 class is turning out to be a really strong competitive class.
  21. 2wins87
    Here are all of his batted ball events since being sent down: EV Result 83.5 Groundout 85.7 Single 110.8 Homerun 107.2 Groundout 103.3 Single 108.6 Lineout 74.7 Lineout 54.7 Groundout 106.1 Lineout 87 Flyout 57.4 Popout 84.7 Lineout 111.3 Double 94.2 Flyout 94.4 Lineout He has struck out a bit much, but I do think the process has still been much better than the results so far. I'm hopeful that he's close to finding it again.
  22. 2wins87
    May will be a challenge if the offense isn't a lot better. They will play: Red Sox, Mariners, Blue Jays, Yankees, Guardians, Nationals, Rangers, Royals. I do think the left handed hitters in particular are coming around, which is pretty important in a league of 70ish percent RHP. They will really need Correa to make a quick return because the lineups against LHP are just sad right now. If they can go 5-2 in the remaining games against the White Sox and Angels they will be at .500. I would then hope they just manage to stay around .500 through May as they hopefully get healthier and the bats come around. The schedule will then lighten up a bit in June. Getting a series win against Cleveland in May could feel pretty huge too. I do still think they have the potential to be a very good team though I'm anxious to see whether the improved play is just facing the White Sox. Definitely still early, but if the offense reverts after this soft stretch it could be a rough May.
  23. 2wins87
    I think that kind of play calling is the result of having just a horrendous offense. It is still fun, though kind of a sign of the desperate state of the White Sox. The Trea Turner and the Phillies acstually pulled off a similar play against the White Sox over the weekend: https://www.mlb.com/video/nick-nastrini-swinging-strike-to-j-t-realmuto Probably not coincidence that the White Sox tried it a few days later. Turner and the Phillies then went and tried it again last night (this time with 2 outs), and it was not so good the second time around: https://www.mlb.com/reds/video/tyler-stephenson-catches-trea-turner-stealing It's weird to see it 3 times in the course of a week. It's probably just a blip and not a trend. It should not work very often at the major league level. It definitely won't work if they try it all the time, as the Reds were ready for it.
  24. 2wins87
    I'm not really concerned about short starts for the top pitching prospects (Festa, Raya, Soto) right now. With Raya and Festa, I am still optimistic that they will be starters, but I guess I'm just not expecting them to be big inning eaters anytime soon. Obviously an ace that regularly pitches into the 7th is ideal, but most prospects end up being less than ideal in several ways, and if both end up being more 5 and done guys but are effective in that role I'll be fairly happy. They would certainly not be alone in that role the way things are going across the league. I still hope that Festa builds more stamina eventually, but I think the Twins have made the determination that he's just not that kind of pitcher now, and I don't really disagree. He's listed at 6'6" and 185 lbs and definitely still looks it. He is clearly the type of guy that doesn't put on mass easily. He has been built up to 80-90ish pitches in the past and hasn't maintained velocity. I'm not sure why his pitch limit hasn't seemed to have increased even a little from the start of the season, but I'm pretty sure that if they did start throwing him out there for 100 pitch outings, we wouldn't find out that he's suddenly become a workhorse. If short outings and conditioning behind the scenes lead him to make a positive contribution in the majors this year then I'll be pretty happy.
  25. 2wins87
    I'm a little hesitant about pushing to AAA too quickly. The pitchers in AAA generally have a little better command but the walk rate has been higher over the last year+ there due to the tight ABS zone. The zone got a little bigger this year, but I think it's still going to be a high walk league. I think ERod would be fantastic at zone judgement with an automated zone, but I'm not sure it necessarily helps his development if the goal is to be a little more aggressive at the right time, it sort of reinforces what he's already good at. He's probably going to be pitched around somewhat in AA but I think the 47% strike rate is still a fluky early season thing. I think the pitchers in AA are probably pretty similar to AAA in terms of stuff so I am still in favor of giving him a decent amount of time in AA to see more of the pitchers and hopefully improve his contact rate slightly just through gaining a little more familiarity with the higher level of pitching. I think half a season at AA would still be a very aggressive path, and if he's still crushing the league then I think they have to think about continuing to push him (and maybe thinking about how quickly to push him all the way to the majors). There probably are still some things to pick up in AAA, but I'm not sure the difference between AA and AAA will be that big of a challenge for a hitter like ERod so I'm fine with a little more time in AA.
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