2wins87

Good to see Rosario coming back strong. Not just the 109.6 mph HR, all 3 of his balls in play were over 100 mph, including a 111.5 out. His raw power is elite, though it hasn't been talked about a lot because he's either had too many strikeouts or not enough launch angle to really show it off in games. Winokur has been really good since June, even with a down month in July. I think he's shown enough improvements this year that he should be a top 10 guy. He's cut down on strikeouts, hits the ball hard and has been getting it over the fence more lately, steals a lot of bases, and is still playing at the top end of the defensive spectrum. As a hitting prospect, I see a lot of similarities to Rosario actually. Winokur has been on the same developmental timeline. Both struggled with Ks when initially adjusting to professional ball but have worked to cut them down to a manageable level. The game power hasn't always shown up in both cases, but Winokur's not too far behind Rosario's. Rosario made a big improvement in his plate approach in high A, increasing his walk rate significantly, and it would be nice to see Winokur do something similar. At any rate, both are very solid hitting prospects as is, and the breakouts could be massive if either manages to sync up all the improvements. Winokur even more so with the positional value.

Was thinking I would have flipped Jax and Duran last inning. Maybe he would have blown it in the 9th, but I like him better starting with a clean inning right now.

Martin cannot put his fastball in play and they knew it

Good at bats, but missed opportunities. Need to at least keep that up. No 5 pitch innings letting him off the hook.

Felt like Michael Harris has really killed the Twins. He was 6 for 11 with a 1.455 OPS against them coming into this game. So yeah...

I'm not sure I'd even put a 50 grade on Jenkins' power tbh. Future grade could still be a 60 maybe, but I agree with @Dman, he simply hasn't shown it with wood bats and I think the grade is out of date. His 90th percentile and max exit velocities in Ft Myers were 101.6 and 108.8. Erod's 2 years ago were 106.6 and 111.6. Some guys can get to good power without very high EVs by pulling the ball in the air frequently, but that doesn't seem to be Jenkins' style either. He seems like more of an all-fields type to me (maybe a bit like Mauer). There could be good scouting reasons to believe he becomes a slugger in the future, but there is no data to back up the 60 grade yet. I think MLB pipeline tends to be a little more scouting vs data centered in their prospect ratings, and I think they do have a decent track record on guys that don't necessarily show their pedigree in the stat pages immediately. I don't know if their tool grades are that useful though. Of the guys ranked in their top 30, Rodriguez, Rosario, and Severino should definitely have higher power grades than Jenkins, and those are just the obvious ones. I don't want this to come off overly negative on Jenkins, I think his hit tool is top notch and he should be a really good overall hitter even with just average power. I think highlighting him as the best power tool in the system really sells short half a dozen other prospects though.

Richards is not a fun guy to watch pitch.

You're not imagining it. Their worst innings as an offense on the season are the 5th (.714 OPS) and 6th (.652). They have a .768 OPS in the first 3 innings, .770 in the last 3, and .721 in the middle 3. Sometimes the 6th is a reliever, but the 5th and 6th should usually be a time to feast, third time through the order. Lately it seems to be just swinging early rather than working the count. I get the theory of ambushing early in the count once they've gotten used to the starters pitches, but it hasn't been working. Not sure if it's been the same approach all season, but it is a frustrating trend.

His last outing was very far from perfect despite ultimately not giving up a run. He's been decent IMO. Certainly doesn't deserve hate for the role he's in, but also not exactly a guy you're very happy to see entering a playoff game.

I don't think Louie was quite as good as a reliever as some might remember. I remember some hard contact for outs. However, he was still pretty good, and should easily be better than a few of the guys in the pen now. I'd probably wait to make sure teams don't start just teeing off on Zebby in his next couple of starts. But I'd absolutely try to get Varland ready for a bullpen role in September as long as he's not needed in the rotation.

I would put Alcala above Sands, or at least in the same tier. I know Sands' peripherals are actually better than Alcala's, but stuff-wise, I just feel that Alcala will be more effective against play-off lineups, as long as his control is at least ok. It doesn't have to be great, just not bad, and the stuff will play. I think it's too early to put Henriquez that high. He's had a nice bounceback from last year/ early this year. His velocity is up a lot in the second half. He touched 99 in a couple AAA appearances, and last year his fastball dipped into the low 90s. That's very encouraging. However, his fastball still seems to play way down from what you would expect from the velocity. His changeup/slider combination work well enough in AAA, but I'm just not sure yet that he won't get exposed against MLB hitters in a prolonged stretch with better scouting reports. Bottom line, they need to sort out the back of the bullpen. They will need a few of them in the playoffs. I don't think Okert should sniff a playoff roster. He really struggles against righties and just walks too many while giving up too many homeruns. It's like Pagan but not even that good in a medium leverage role. I would cut him as soon as one of the recently optioned guys is allowed to be re-added to get more looks at guys like Winder, Varland, and Henriquez in a bullpen role. Not sure I will trust any of those guys a lot, but I think they need to sort them out and maybe find a hot hand for the playoffs. Also not sure I'll trust Thielbar much, but his peripherals have improved so I think he deserves a little more time to hopefully really dial it back in. If there isn't a lefty they trust by the end of the season, then just use the best righties against the dangerous lefties. There is no reason to carry a bad lefty reliever in the playoffs. Festa will also probably need to be ahead of a bunch of those guys in the bullpen in a potential Wild Card series at the very least. He could play the role of right-handed lefty-specialist with his excellent changeup.

Jeffers looking sexy again

Yeah, the changeup does need work, it was a consistent weakness in the minors too. I do put some blame on Vazquez there. Zebby needs to execute it better, i.e. below the zone, but in such a big spot, I don't know if going to his 5th best pitch is the best idea, even if it would be the best pitch for most other pitchers. Maybe his cutter and slider don't play well against lefties either, but I think I would avoid the changeup in all RISP situations for the time being. It looks like they actually have mostly avoided the changeup, mixing in the curveball and more fastballs to lefties instead, which kind of makes it more weird to call for it in such a high leverage spot. Ideally he would be working on the pitch in AAA, but he's needed for the division/wild card race now. I think in the short term he might be better just trying to keep hitters off balance with his other pitches even if the changeup will be needed long term.

Chasing history

The lineup is gonna let King pitch into the 7th after 65 pitches or whatever it was through 3.

I would agree that RF/9 has some limited utility, and seeing some of the top prospects near the top makes sense, but Austin Martin being in the same range as Pete Crow-Armstrong should give you an idea of the amount of random variability it has. It's hard to judge jumps from any broadcast, let alone minor league ones, so it's possible he has a similar issue to Martin, but I think Keirsey has generally looked good in the outfield from what I've seen. I would guess that him not being called up has more to do with 40-man considerations and probably some skepticism about the bat at the major league level as well. I would still say Keirsey is probably a better CF than Martin, though I'd admit that I don't really know for sure. I would also say that I think we've seen the worst version of Martin in the outfield at the MLB level this year. I'm not sure, but I just don't think he played as poorly in the minors. Certainly his RF/9 has plummeted in the majors, if that's not just noise. He's looked uncomfortable around the wall a few times which could be some unfamiliarity with the ballparks. His jumps have been really bad, and I wonder if there is a little tentativeness in not wanting to make the wrong read. I would hope that he'll look a little better in the outfield as he gets used to MLB parks and gains a little more confidence in his reads. His outfield defense being this bad has been the most surprising thing about his rookie season to me though. Everything else about his profile is pretty close to where I expected it to be.

Olivares probably should start to get talked about more. Mid 90s fastball, nearly a 35% whiff rate in low-A. Took him a while to get to this point, so he could be a tricky guy to protect from the rule-5 sometime down the line, but if he keeps up his performance from the last few months I could see him being a breakout guy next year and reaching AA.

Why would Vazquez ever be waiting for a foul bunt to potentially turn fair?

Used up all the good relievers in the pen but got the win which is all that matters. Looking at the bullpen for tonight and... oof. Anything can happen, but any somewhat close game is gonna feel pretty precarious.

1) He has 3 options left so the Twins can simply option him rather than DFA him if they don't need a 40-man spot 2) He has less than 5 years of service time, so he cannot reject an assignment to the minors if he is DFA'ed to remove him from the 40-man. He's not going anywhere for the remainder of his guaranteed contract. He could be traded, but his contract has negative value at this point. I don't see the Twins eating money or giving away something of value just to do him a favor. I don't get the impression that either Dobnak or the organization is unhappy with the other side, its just a contract that didn't work out for either due to injury.

Walker Jenkins Has shown elite contact ability and plate discipline, though exit velocities have been more average for low-A. The EVs have improved over the last month or so. The early injury dashed any hopes of a Jackson Holiday like rise through the minors, but lately he's looking like he might be ready to be challenged at A+.Brooks Lee The last piece of the puzzle for Lee was getting to power from the right side, and he seems to have solved the puzzle in AAA. Lots of contact, good power, good defense, what more can you really ask for? Past back issues will need to be monitored, and could be the one thing to suppress his value.Emmanuel Rodriguez The in-zone miss still raises questions about reaching his ceiling in the majors, but his extremely disciplined approach has so far translated incredibly well to AA though. Has dealt with a few injuries over the years, so it's hard not to have a little worry of him being another injury prone top prospect.Luke Keaschall It might have felt easy to put Keaschall in the light-hitting utility infielder bin, like Schobel from the previous draft, but I think that always slightly underrated his physicality, speed, and tools. He hit well right away, but this year it’s apparent that his hit tool is just very very good. He’s getting to enough HR power and drawing some walks. I think he might have the most value as a regular CF, but the defensive flexibility should help to get and keep his bat in a major league lineup.David Festa I still think the ceiling on Festa is as high as any pitcher in the system. His fastball, slider, and changeup all miss a lot of bats, and he’s added a more distinct curveball this year to give hitters a different look. The question is durability and where his command ultimately ends up, but he touched 101 in his first appearance this year, so the reliever risk might be more aptly called "elite closer risk".Zebby Matthews Elite control, big frame, lots of great starter qualities. Velocity and pitches took a step forward. I still have questions about the changeup, and early statcast data in AAA doesn't yet dispell that concern, but he’s looking like a surefire starter, and at least a mid-rotation one right now.Andrew Morris A little overshadowed by Matthews, but Morris has also had nearly as incredible a season, with nearly as good control. Morris also has solid velocity and a few pitches that have missed bats. Not a particularly big frame but has been healthy so far.Marco Raya It hasn’t been the strongest season for Raya, but he’s still got good velocity and great breaking pitches, the only noticeable negative is that the control seems to have backed up a bit, or has at least been exposed versus better hitters in AA. The Twins also continue to closely guard his innings, though have let him build up very gradually. Still just 21, the potential is still very high, but but hasn’t really taken any significant steps forward yet this year.Austin Martin Austin Martin has exceeded rookie service time limits but since he's still in the voting I'd slot him here.Gabriel Gonzalez After a slow start and losing time to injury, Gonzalez has been showing the offensive skillset that the Twins expected when they traded for him. Barely walking at 6.5%, but also barely striking out at 13%, and hitting for some power (just 4 HR but a lot of extra base hits) with a .150 ISO. The defensive limitations cap the upside, so he’ll need to keep hitting as he moves up.Kaelen CulpepperCharlee Soto There have been some ups and downs for Soto, which should be expected for a high school draftee who was still fairly new to pitching. Average fastball has been 95.5 and he’s run it up to 98. He’s thrown both a 4-seam and sinker, and has actually gotten a lot of whiffs on the 4-seam despite the concerns about it’s shape at draft time. Could just be overpowering hitters in low-A, but I think it’s a good sign. Slider, cutter, changeup have all been great at times but not at others.Brandon Winokur Winokur has held his own as a 19-year-old in low-A. He’s made some solid improvements on making contact from last year, and also appears to be just a tad more selective. He’s also still holding down SS most often, and CF most after that. So still plenty of questions on how good his hit tool ends up and where he ends up defensively, but the hope for a plus defensive guy with plus power is still very much alive.Kala'i Rosario Rosario has made steady progress throughout the system, and though he hasn’t really had a full offensive breakout, his bat is still very exciting. He showed impressive exit velocities in low-A, getting above 110 with some regularity, then made a nice improvement in his approach at the plate last year. The approach seems to have carried over nicely to AA where he was striking out at the lowest rate in his career, but he hasn’t gotten to the raw power much in game.Ricardo Olivar I think Olivar is a corner outfielder rather than catcher long-term, but he’s shown a great ability to hit at every level. Good power, decent amount of walks, reasonable number of Ks; just very well rounded. Was an older sign as an international free agent so he’s not actually young for his level (he’s a year older than Rosario for example, who is already a level higher). CJ Culpepper Probably the biggest breakout pitcher from last year, Culpepper seems to have shown more improvements in his limited innings in A+ this year, but his injury has probably slowed his promotion to A+ which will be the real test.Kyle DeBargeYasser Mercedes After strong reports from spring instructionals last year, Mercedes never got a chance to make an impact in the season and ultimately missed most of the season with a shoulder injury. The shoulder might have affected the performance because he raked this year. There is a lot of power and the strikeouts were under control while repeating the FCL. There have been a lot of strikeouts as he adjusts to low-A, but a few well hit balls too, so we'll see if he can adjust soon.Dasan HillConnor Prielipp He’s back with good stuff once again, but it’s hard to trust the health with the injury history until he puts together a longer healthy stretch. Next 11: Cory Lewis (would be my #20 with Martin graduated), Yunior Severino, Dameury Pena, Billy Amick, Danny De Andrade, Eduardo Beltre, Rayne Doncon, DaShawn Keirsey, Jair Camargo, Adrian Bohorquez, Matt Canterino. The top 10 is as strong as it's been in a while, maybe since 2020/2021? Maybe longer particularly focusing at the very top. I don't see this years draft having a big impact on the system yet as a combination of a weak draft and picking late, but after a year of development that could easily change.

Very unlikely for this to ever look like a truly bad trade given the low price. Richards seems like another reliever who walks too many while giving up too many homeruns. Same problem Okert has. Obviously neither of those traits are ever good, but I'd say it's especially undesirable in a playoff setting.

I'd like to see a trade for someone who might have a shot of starting a playoff game. Doesn't have to be a slam dunk, but someone who has shown that level of talent in the recent past. Paxton is a 5th starter (not a 4th starter - minor quibble, but still), but that's not even my main objection. Paxton is now 35 and has a terrible injury history at this point. 2 Tommy Johns, and he's quickly closing in on the 96 inning mark that he pitched last year, which is his most in the past 5 seasons. He was on the injured list 3 times last year getting to that mark. Seems like an incredibly lousy bet to even be healthy enough to eat innings, and I think his last few outings show he's already starting to wear down. He's been healthy so far this season, but do you really want to bet on that injury history with zero upside? Put in a claim, sure, but I wouldn't want to give up even a prospect in the 25-40 range (e.g. Bohorquez, Bowen, or Nowlin) for Paxton.

My basic heuristic for Cleveland playing at their true talent level is that I'll believe it once Jose Ramirez is statistically their best hitter. Getting closer now with Fry very close to slipping below Ramirez in OPS. Still a couple of rookies with small samples and Steven Kwan. I might accept Kwan OPSing higher than Ramirez, though ultimately I don't see anything to suggest that his bat is really much that much different than Luis Arraez's. Basically he had the first half this year that Arraez did last year and ultimately he will be around an .800 OPS guy (though with a lot better defense than Arraez). They're a good team though and still have a 5 game lead so I don't if the Twins will catch them. It should be a good race though.

First pick I can say I was actually on before the draft. I guess I could have probably predicted Amick as a Twin with some foreknowledge that he'd still be available in the second round Good bat, it'll be another project on defense but they've pick a few of those types at C in the recent past.