2wins87

The difference between Gordon and Larnach in projected value is probably minimal. Gordon only seemed to have the last roster spot locked down because he was out of options and it seemed that the FO wasn't ready to give up on him. Given what Larnach has done at AAA, I don't think he has much to learn there, he just needs something to click at the MLB level. I do think he has made gradual progress in the majors, but it's not clear that he'll ever fully turn the corner of becoming an MLB regular. I don't think he has the last roster spot locked down though. The Gordon trade would certainly seem to have cleared a spot for a possible upgrade. Honestly, MAT still makes a lot of sense. There's not really a clearly better offensive RHH OF upgrade in the FA market. It feels like there is still one more move coming fornthe outfield, but I'm not sure it's going to be particularly impactful.

I think it's meant to be the Latin "plus". He's a dad and coach

Yeah that's what I thought. The only place I see 2/8 mentioned (specifically for the Dodgers) is in a Fangraphs article, so they might have just been off by one day. It looks like the Padres already have spots open on their 40 man, but also would have already passed on Duarte and Thompson. I think the Braves and Orioles both have spots open and are behind the Twins in the waiver order, so they might have interest in putting in a claim. I would say it's pretty likely one or more passes through waivers and will be able to be stashed, possibly all 3.

Are we sure the 60-day IL opens tomorrow? I can't find this anywhere by googling, and the only information I do find says it opens up on the day that pitchers and catchers report (which is a little different for different teams).

Are you sure the 60 day IL starts tomorrow? I've been googling a bit and I think there's still time. For most teams, pitchers and catchers report on the 14th or 15th (with the 14th being 43 days before opening day* - March 28). The Dodgers and Padres will open on March 20 in Seoul, so the Dodgers' pitchers and catchers report on the 9th and the Padres on the 11th. From my reading of the rules, it seams that teams can use the 60 day IL on the date that their pitchers and catchers report, which cannot be more than 43 days before their opening day. So there is not a single date for every team. If the Twins outright all of the 3 guys who were just DFA'd, then there is a 48 hour waiver period for other teams to put in a claim. The Twins have 7 days to decide whether to do this, so they could wait to see if there is interest in a low level trade on any of them (unlikely), but it seems if they act quickly to outright them, the Dodgers might be the only team that could use the 60-day IL to clear spot. It also sounds like the Dodgers will use two spots opened by the 60-day IL to finalize their deals with Kershaw and Ryan Brasier. So today might actually be the ideal time to sneak a few more players through waivers when most teams have full 40-man rosters, but before they are able to use the 60-day IL. I'm guessing at least one person in the front office is well aware of the timing and has a more firm grasp of all the rules than me. But anyway, I guess it's an advantage to acting late in the offseason, that the Twins were able to pick a few interesting guys up early in the offseason and seemingly will be able to stash one or all of them off the 40-man in AAA.

I'm coming around on Santana a little bit, but I don't like an argument based solely on splits from the prior year. For most splits that's still a small sample to draw many conclusions. Platoon splits are well recognized and researched, so I'm less skeptical there, but is the 80 point gap in OPS between the right and left side what we should really expect? Maybe. For his career the gap has only been 46 points, but looking year by year, it looks like the gap really has been bigger in recent years going back farther than just last year. Is there a plausible explanation? Maybe his swing from the right side is better, but as a young hitter he would still have more familiarity from the left side. A career of at bats versus lefties has improved his familiarity to the point where he's now significantly better from the right side. I don't know if it's true, but plausible. So can we really expect him to be like a 115 OPS as a RHH? Yeah, I think that's fairly reasonable. Is he really a run producer that simply performs better with men on/RISP? There are factors that can lead to a true men on/bases empty split, but we should have a lot more skepticism around most claims here, and we're definitely going to need a bigger sample. In Santana's case, over his long career, there is some interesting evidence. His career OPS split for bases empty/men on/RISP is .761/.819/.831. For that large of a sample, there does appear to be some there there. With men on, the infielders might be holding runners leaving a few more gaps, and Santana does benefit from a much better BABIP with men on. His 27 point increase in BABIP seems maybe a little bigger than normal, but I'm not sure what is typical. But further, there is some evidence of a difference in approach. His HR rate drops when there are men on, but the K rate also drops. It seems he is a guy that can focus on putting the ball in play and do so effectively. So I think he's a veteran guy who's going to do a good job of putting the ball in play with RISP, which should lead to pretty good outcomes. On the defense, the 11 DRS last year is super fluky. I think he's a solid defender but I think 1.5 WAR with average-ish offense overall would be a more realistic upside hope. I still don't think he's a big difference maker but he seems like he should be a good presence to have around.

A league average bat at 1B/DH does not bring impact to the lineup. It brings depth but that's it. I'm not upset with the signing, just thoroughly unexcited. Like others, I hope the front office has learned to cut bait if he falls off a cliff, which can happen fairly regularly to 38 year old hitters.

My guess is Bubba Thompson who they claimed off waivers a few weeks ago. Hope to pass him through and stash him in AAA.

Honestly not sure exactly what I'm supposed to take from these collection of ERAs. He's been better than Bundy for his career, sure, there probably were some bad takes comparing Bundy and Desclafani, but that's not really surprising to me. I don't dislike the trade. I don't think it's obvious it makes the team worse like many do, in fact I think there is a decent chance it made the team better. Losing Polanco definitely reduces the infield depth, but with ready replacements and a little luck, the loss of Polanco could still be very marginal for the team as a whole. With Topa I think they probably improved their bullpen a decent amount. Desclafani isn't totally without upside, but I don't see anything to convince me to expect him to be more than the 5th starter, to think his upside is better than Varland's, or to think that he'll be someone I want to see start a playoff game. I'll just focus on the Paddack comparison. Both have been hampered by injuries the last couple years. Paddack is 28 though while Desclafani is 34. The Twins got Paddack from the Padres who had longstanding issues getting the most out of young pitchers. We haven't really had a chance to see whether they have managed to tap into his upside, with only a couple solid starts in 2022 and a little bit of tantalizing velocity from the bullpen last year. Desclafani is probably past the point of unlocking something new, and is coming from an organization in the Giants that already does a lot of the same things as the Twins on the coaching side. Getting Desclafani is less than I would have hoped to see them do for the rotation.

He's only under contract for 2024

Duvall was -4 in CF but positive in LF/RF. DRS and UZR agree with statcast on that directionally. Duvall would have been a positive defender had the Sox played him in corners only, my guess is he still will be this year too. He could be an emergency CF or 1B too, so I think he's a good fit position-wise. He would probably be my 2nd best FA behind Soler. He's a much better defender but I wouldn't expect Duvall to be of particular impact in the lineup, more of a solid platoon bat

Here are the Fangraphs depth charts projected wRC+ for the right-handed (or switch) COF/1B/DH bats that seem to be in the discussion to bolster the lineup: Soler - 118 Martinez - 106 Santana - 101 Pham - 100 Duvall - 98 Solano - 98 Grichuk - 89 I'm kind of surprised that Soler's projection is that high with a couple of rough seasons prior to last year, but all the projection systems more or less agree. That's higher even than Rhys Hoskins at 116. My initial reaction would be that at something like $18 million AAV for 3 years makes it really hard to see the fit for the Twins. But none of the other free agents really seem worth it on a 1-year deal. So I don't know, maybe I am a little on board. The problem is, with the contractual and arbitration raises already baked in for next year, adding another $18 million for Soler probably pushes their payroll in 2025 to somewhere around $145 million as a baseline. Seems like they are likely to get a 1 year TV deal, leaving all sorts of uncertainty around next offseason as well. and probably leaving them in an even trickier spot with the payroll.

Great writeup. I kind of thought the SS thing was more "he's young and athletic, let's throw him out there and see how it goes." If there are evaluators that thing he's got a good shot of sticking there that's interesting and exciting. Being a plus 3B or even corner OF wouldn't be bad though either.

I'm not sure if there is any site that calculates and publishes 90th percentile EV data for minor leaguers. EV data is available in game logs at baseball savant for AAA and most low A Florida State games. I started collecting this data from baseball savant over the last year. I think a 101.5 MPH 90th percentile is fine, but certainly not great. EVs are generally higher in AAA than low A, but in general over 105 would be a very good 90th percentile, And under 100 would be concerning, depending on the rest of the profile of course. Wallner's 90% EV was 109 MPH last year. Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kalai Rosario put up 106.5 MPH 90% EVS in low A in 2022. Those were elite for guys their age. 101.5 is kind of on par with Jose Salas in 2022 or Keaschall last year, and a little better than De Andrade last year. So kind of average but not bad for a 19-year-old. I'd like to know at least his average and in-game max EV as well. I don't know if there is any public EV data from the California League though. Also a 101 MPH 90% EV with a 15% K rate is obviously a lot different than the same EV with a 30% K rate. Given his over aggressive approach, I would guess Gonzalez's EV is skewed a bit low by putting balls in play on bad pitches a bit too much.

Yeah, I think Lee is easy to underrate defensively. It's not as exciting when his speed/range is somewhat limited, but with his fundamentals/instincts/etc. he is a pretty good bet to be at least close to average as a shortstop and above average at 2B/3B. The number of minor leaguers for which that's true is probably a lot smaller than most fans assume. In retrospect I think I probably put Jenkins a little high but I think he deserves to be in the top 10. Scouts seem bullish on his ability to stay in center, so I kind of think a Bellinger type defender is a reasonable hope/projection.

I always find it impressive how much power Severino has from both sides of the plate. He really doesn't have a weak side which is kind of rare even among switch hitters. I know it doesn't matter if he ends up with equally poor contact rates from both sides, but I still want to give him some kind of extra credit for it. He could still stand to walk more than he does as a low contact power guy. He was a bit more of a contact guy in the lower levels though too, so I still have some hope that he can return to a bit better contact rates after adjusting to higher level pitching for a little longer.

The biggest reason is that it was just a super deep draft with so many good college players that didn't get drafted out of high school due to the shortened Covid draft in 2020.

It's an interesting idea. Here's my quick crack at it: Rk Defense Offense 1 Miller Jenkins 2 Lee Rodriguez 3 Cardenas Lee 4 Keirsey Cossetti 5 Jenkins Rosario 6 Rodriguez Severino 7 De Andrade Olivar 8 Martin Schobel 9 Camargo Keaschall 10 Winokur Martin For defense I'm going for defensive value, so probable position plays a large role. In both lists I'm trying to balance upside and floor. Winokur, I think, has a lot of upside and uncertainty on both defense and offense, while Lee has a high floor on both sides. Gonzalez should probably be on the offense list somewhere in the middle (after Lee or Cossetti?). I just didn't rank him since he's new to the system.

The kind of deal Keith got, I think would be reasonable. The Tigers are guaranteeing something like a 4.5, 8, 13 arbitration schedule, with a couple club options which is only upside for the Tigers. I think Lee is more likely to be good than great, I don't think an extension is something they have to do. But if he was willing to sign an extension that guaranteed him the money at a relatively low cost I would be in favor. Given the schedule Lee is on, he could get super 2 status, so a 7 year guarantee for somewhat more money might be more natural. I'm not sure how many prospects in Lee's situation would take an equivalent of the Keith deal. If most were willing to take it, we would probably see it a lot. There's not all that much downside for the team on a deal like that.

My first reaction is that it is a good return for Polanco, but I don't love the fit with DeSclafani, who is the main piece for next year. I would have been fine trading Polo for prospects if those prospects allowed for another trade for a starting pitcher in some way. Gonzalez is a borderline top 100 prospect. He was in the top 100 for MLB, but just outside for BA, and I suspect most other outlets. It seems like a good bat, but there are enough questions with his defense and aggressive approach that I don't think I would like him as the headliner without the other pieces. Bowen is kind of a throw in but probably top 30 for the Twins. Topa actually could be a sneaky good get for the Twins. He is already 32, and maybe the breakout last year will fade. But if the breakout was for real he fills a need in the bullpen. DeSclafani... He provides depth, which they need. But I don't like him better than Varland for the rotation. He should not sniff a playoff roster. I'm afraid they'll just stick with him too long "for depth" even if he's not good. It's not really the kind of depth they need.

Olivar was 16th on Gleeman's list, and I know he's a favorite of at least Tom Froemming, and possibly a few other voters, so I'm not sure he won't be in the top 20. Would be a glaring omission to not even make the HM list though. Trying to count the top 20 that weren't listed, he could defintely be in there, though I'm not sure about Woods-Richardson, Balazovic, or new international signee Daibel de los Santos.

Miguel Cordero definitely caught my eye in the DSL box scores as well. He was still 16 for nearly the entire DSL season; that's young for any DSL prospect, but especially for a pitcher where the recent trend in the international market is to sign older pitchers. I put very little stock in stats for pitchers in the DSL, but he had a solid 27% K rate, so he'll definitely be one to watch in the FCL. The other DSL pitcher that I'll be watching is Adrian Bohorquez, who is a little older and seemed to be a little more wild, but was still a solid performer for his age last year. I think maybe the only surprise to be listed in the honorable mentions is Yasser Mercedes, who was a borderline top 10 guy last year. It's understandable with the tough year he had in the FCL, but I think the potential is still too high to drop that much. I'd also have Funderburk, Cossetti, and Miller at the back end of my top 20. Cossetti, I'm maybe more optimistic that he'll get his defense to a place that's playable in the majors at catcher. Miller, I'm at least somewhat buying that he was figuring a few things out at the plate in the last few months of the season. For Funderburk, based on a historical look of the farm system, it's super unlikely that there will be 20 guys who even put up half a WAR in the majors, or get more than a year of service time, so he might have already established a spot in a top 20 retrospective several years down the line. The league might adjust to Funderburk, so it's not a lock, but he still seems pretty likely to at least be an average reliever for a few years, so he kind of has to be in the top 20 for me mathematically. Relief only prospects are still a little hard to value for me. I generally still wouldn't put one in a top 10, so Canterino is out of the top 10 in my mind, but it still seems that guys like Funderburk can get a little under-valued.

I was under the impression that centerfield was a possibility, so that would be a premium defensive position. A Willi Castro type utility role is probably more likely though.

My math on Helton right now: He missed election by 11 votes last year, with 281 votes vs 292 needed of 389 total ballots. However, this year the estimate is that there will be 384 ballots and the threshold for election will be 288 votes. If this is accurate, Helton only has to pick up a net of 7 votes. Currently he has picked up 2 votes from returning voters, and 13 from new voters/returning voters who didn't submit last year, for 15 total. Of course, if the total voting pool does go down to 384, that means there would have to be 20 voters losing eligibility/not submitting. If Helton was on 8 or fewer of those 20 ballots, he would be at the net +7 ballots that he is estimated to need. Given what we know about the older voters that haven't covered baseball in 10 years tend to vote, it would not be at all surprising if Helton was on fewer than 40% of their ballots. That also assumes that he is at net 0 on the remaining unrevealed ballots. I still think he picks up a couple votes among those voters, making the math even easier for him. Of course if the estimates for the voting pool are off the math changes a little, but I think coin flip is close to right, and I would put his odds as a little better than that. All indications are that Mauer will finish ahead of Helton. I agree that his election is very likely, though of course the unrevealed voting pool can sometimes be weird.

That's Lewis and Culpepper from left to right. Culpepper has got a nice Viking flow going on with his hair as well. Can't be a coincidence.