I agree with everything you said about all the teams. Houston is still currently the most likely opponent so I took a more detailed look at how they might set their rotation over the next few days.
I think they want to have Valdez and Verlander in the WC rotation for sure, and I guess Christian Javier has the inside track for the third spot. None of Javier, France or Brown have been particularly strong over the last few months, so I think they go with the veteran, but I could be wrong, and maybe they go with the fireballer Brown despite mediocre results.
Anyway, Valdez goes tonight, then they have an off day which does allow them some flexibility. They probably stick with their current rotation and France pitches Friday, on 5 days of rest. The only other option would be to skip France and go to Brown on 4 days of rest. I don't see a compelling reason to do that.
Saturday they could start shaking it up, and it's possible they could already be facing a must-win. Verlander could go on 4-days rest here, which would set him up for game 3 of the wildcard round after another 4 days of rest. They could also stick with Brown, in which case Verlander would still be slated to go on Sunday, but I think they might be willing to start him again in game 3 on 3-days of rest.
The best scenario for them would be to clinch before Sunday with their current rotation in tact, which would allow them to skip Verlander's last start. I would think that we would then get Verlander and Valdez in games 1 & 2, both on a little extra rest.
Under any scenario I think we would get Valdez in either game 1 or 2, and probably the only way we wouldn't see Verlander at all is if the West goes down to the last game of the season and the WC series doesn't go to 3 games, but he could end up pitching on short rest, which would hopefully help the Twins at least a little bit.
Without a rest day and facing each other for the last 4, if either Texas or Seattle ends up as the wild-card they will probably have had to stick with their current rotation.
Anyway, I'm really hoping for a Seattle win tonight just because it's Houston and we can probably all agree that we'd rather just see them miss the playoffs altogether. And if the Angels somehow manage to beat Texas again tonight, that should set up a pretty wild weekend.
We should also probably be rooting for Chicago and Miami to go on winning streaks to keep the pressure on Arizona against Houston as well. The Twins' games might be boring but it should be a fun weekend.