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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    Fangraphs hasn't updated their board since before the college season started and they were already higher on Taylor than anyone else. He has hit pretty well but not on the level of pretty much any of the college bats ahead of him, many of whom also play in the SEC or ACC.
  2. 2wins87
    I think they play it pretty straight for the most part. The first year of the Falvey and Levine regime was 2017 when they saved some money on Royce Lewis with the #1 overall pick and nabbed HS pitcher Blayne Enlow overslot with the first pick in the 3rd round. Lewis got a smaller bonus than Hunter Greene, but wasn't really a reach at #1 in what turned out to be a pretty weak draft (I mean, no one who knows anything about draft history will criticize you for passing on a HS pitcher #1 overall). This will be their highest overall pick and easily their largest pool since then. Their tendency is to go for impact bats early, with a bit more emphasis on college guys with good data behind them, and then to target college pitchers on day 2 and 3 who are somewhat under the radar, often from smaller baseball programs, who have aspects that leads the front office to believe they can develop them into much better pitchers. Two of their current rotation pieces Ober and Varland were developed that way. Given their tendencies your scenario seems very plausible. I would also be pretty into a scenario where they go for upside via one of the deep group of HS SS prospects at #34 regardless of whether they got one of the HS OF at #5. That might be a less likely and less balanced scenario, but I would argue still a good way to use their high picks and slot money that doesn't come around very often. Either way it is an exciting draft to be in their position with what should be a much better and deeper draft class than 2017. I think I am a fan of the new draft order lottery system even if the Twins don't get lucky again for a long time.
  3. 2wins87
    Yeah, I imagine most of those guys will be gone by the end of round 1. I like following the draft but can't pretend to really have a good idea of who I like beyond the top 10. Lots of exciting depth though. I really appreciate all the work on this coverage. I still have a lot of blurbs to read on the board.
  4. 2wins87
    I pretty much agree with this and I'd say Skenes is feeling pretty unlikely to get past 3 at this point as well. Although the top of the draft always seems to be a little less settled than we think prior to the draft (Just look at the Rangers picking Rocker 3rd and adding a bit of chaos into the top 10 last year). I've seen Langford mocked to the Twins a couple times, and I could certainly see it happening as there are always a few teams that are looking for toolsy HS kids. Not sure about the tendencies of the teams ahead of us this year. I think that might be my preferred, somewhat realistic scenario right now, though I will be happy with either Jenkins or Clark as well. It is kind of hard to see the scenario where the Twins have a choice between 2 or more of the top 5 but there probably is some universe where one of the top 4 (probably the Rangers) decides to get weird with their pick. I'm getting more interested in the comp round pick. I think it could be a good year to get some of the left over HS talent that drops out of the first round. I could also see one of the big college hitters like Wilken, Hurley, Davis, Schanuel, or Ledbetter making it to the Twins, and it's kind of hard to see this regime passing on one of those bats.
  5. 2wins87
    I think he's supposed to be a guy who does a lot of things well behind the plate, framing, blocking, etc. Although one area we can get at least some hard data is controlling the run game, and his 17% CS rate throughout the minors is kind of mediocre at best. He had a TJ surgery in the past, so I don't know if he lost a bit of strength or accuracy after that, though that is several years in the past now. But being a left handed hitter probably gives him a good shot at being a backup to a RH hitting catcher.
  6. 2wins87
    Two of his outs were hit 107 mph
  7. 2wins87
    His early games in AAA were very discouraging as it seemed to be much of the same. The last two games he had at least 3 very hard hit line outs, so I'm hoping there's been some adjustments and they are about to start showing up in the box scores.
  8. 2wins87
    It feels much more like Rogers in 2020 to me. The peripherals say he's been unlucky, and a lot of times weak contact has done him in. Hes not giving up bombs like Pagan and Colome. But at the same time he's laboring through every appearance. Hitters are spitting on his K pitch. Maybe he's been somewhat unlucky, but when he was good last year luck didn't matter. It seems like hitters have adjusted to his one trick approach. The sweeper is still effective on contact and when hitters chase. I think he's had a tough time when teams have been looking for it and able to hold back out of the zone. The strange thing is how ineffective his fastball has been when he's added velocity and it seems like hitters are sitting on the breaking pitch. I have wondered a little bit if he has been tipping the fastball, but I feel like someone on the Twins would have picked up on it and fixed it by now. He and the team clearly feel similarly about needing to switch up the approach as they tried to mix in a cutter last night. At this point he has to be moved down the pecking order while he works it out though. Not great options. I would put Stewart into his current role, who's pitches have been effective in the zone, and it seems like he might be getting the walks a bit more under control. They've really missed Thielbar lately though
  9. 2wins87
    Very nice outing by Henriquez last night after a shaky looking start to his season. Hopefully he can string together some more good outings and maybe become a bullpen option later this year.
  10. 2wins87
    Haven't watched an Enlow start yet this year so I'll want to try to do that soon. IIRC he was getting into the mid 90s fairly regularly before his TJ and he was much more in the low 90s when I watched him last year. I wonder if the velocity has come back a bit more. Seems like his stuff may be more or less back to it's peak so he could be an additional depth piece this year.
  11. 2wins87
    Don't know for sure but he hasn't played back to back games yet and has been lifted after around 7 innings in each of them, so I'm fairly sure it's just the build-up process.
  12. 2wins87
    Fastball is low to mid 90s topping out around 95 to 96 which is pretty good for a lefty. I think both his slider and changeup could be above average pitches, so he should have a chance as a starter. Still needs to improve his command quite a bit for that to happen.
  13. 2wins87
    I don't think Gordon has a lot more upside than Castro but he does have a bit more IMO. Castro also has an option year left, so I would still send Castro to AAA in favor of Gordon if the lineup was ever healthy enough to make it a decision. They aren't missing out on any upside in sending Castro to AAA is my main point. They might not ever get to the point health-wise where it becomes a decision. If he retains his option all year then I would probably be fine keeping him around for the same role next year too. For me he is sort of a prototypical 14th position player though, and a decent part of the reason he was worth paying the arbitration salary for is the fact that he can easily be shuttled back and forth if necessary.
  14. 2wins87
    He's been doing it all year too with exit velos rivaling Wallner in AAA. If there were expected stats based on contact in AAA I'm sure they would show his stat line has been unlucky. Of course at the same time he has trouble making contact consistently so it's not his only issue, but I still think he could be a decent injury replacement.
  15. 2wins87
    The rules changes encouraging base stealing probably put the nail in the coffin for him as a catcher if there was ever really a chance.
  16. 2wins87
    I'm pleased with the job that Castro has done as a utility player, but I really don't get the love I've seen here and there. He's not a good hitter--he has a .624 OPS in line with his career average. Now, they signed him to be a back-up utility player and to OPS around .650 and steal a few bases, so he's basically been what they hoped for. But in a healthy roster he really has no place. There's no where he can play that Lewis couldn't with significantly more upside. Now they probably will end up keeping Lewis out of the outfield entirely, so he has that positional flexibility, but you really don't want his bat backing up a corner. It sounds like Gordon will have to miss some time so you will probably get your wish with him holding down Gordon's role even after Lewis is activated. He's a guy that should be easily shuttled to AAA if they have better options though.
  17. 2wins87
    They actually kind of need him in the back end of the bullpen. The other guys in that role have been pretty unreliable too, and I think it's a role he's at least well suited for. The problem is that they sometimes need him in higher leverage situations, and he really is predictably worse in high leverage. From the eye test, it feels like he's a different pitcher with those 1-run leads. It's just nibble around the edges until he can't afford to anymore and then a meatball. Normally I would write off most splits by leverage to random luck, but for his career he has a .665 OPS against in low leverage, .657 in medium leverage, and .848 in high leverage. A somewhat similar split has been present in every year of his career, and now it's emerged again this year. It's hard believe it's all random luck at this point. Did Pagan have to be used in that situation? I have to think Duran and Lopez both should have been available so Baldelli was probably planning to use them in the 8th and 9th. I think he was trying to avoid going an inning plus with one of them, probably Lopez in particular who had pitched both Sunday and Monday and threw a moderately high 26 pitches on Monday. I think if I really want to win the game I'd try to get Duran to go an inning and a third finishing off the 7th and then go to Lopez in the 9th. It's May, so I get not going all out, but it's still a frustrating loss to watch. It'd almost been long enough to forget how much I hate watching Pagan with close leads, then we got this all too familiar performance.
  18. 2wins87
    17 year old outfielder, in the same IFA signing class as Mercedes. Put up huge power numbers in the DSL last year. Should probably see him playing games in June when the complex league starts up.
  19. 2wins87
    Another nice game for Kalai Rosario who is probably not getting enough attention at this point. One thing I noticed when going through last years game logs at baseball savant is that his exit velos were on par if not slightly better than Emmanuel Rodriguez's. He looked the part of a slugger in spring training, and I think there is some underlying upside despite mediocre numbers last year. He's been more hit over power so far this year with only his second homer last night, but I'm guessing that is more down to launch angle than exit velocity. But the most encouraging sign is that his plate discipline umbers have gone in the right direction this year. I think he's a top 30 guy for me right now who's maybe just a minor swing tweak away from a big breakout.
  20. 2wins87
    He's DH'ed in 5 of his 27 games this year.
  21. 2wins87
    Hopefully the next step for Severino is to really get selective like Wallner did last year. Overall his numbers in A ball were a 28.6% K rate and a 12% BB rate. In AA he's been at 32.9% K and 9.6% BB rate but still has only 280 PA there. By the numbers, his track record on plate discipline and contact is actually much better than Wallner and many other similar players at the same stage. So it seems at best premature to say that this is such a huge issue for him. I think we can wait a few months to see how he fairs in that area. I think it's fair to say he'll likely be a high K guy, but nothing in his track record suggests it'll be a debilitating issue. Defensively, no he's not great. I think he can probably play third but he might have to slide down to 1B/DH rather quickly. That's probably the bigger hit on his prospect status to me, but he's hardly unique there either. The main thing is just whether he continues to hit.
  22. 2wins87
    Moral victories mean nothing in the standings, but my silver lining today is that playing in the AL central, this particular loss is really very unlikely to play a factor in the ultimate success of the season. My only worry is how the bullpen impact could snowball if they get into another tight one today and Rocco has to decide how much to push his top guys, leading to after effects for a few more games. Otherwise they need to just keep doing what they've been doing and they will get a chance to beat up on some bad teams soon enough.
  23. 2wins87
    Notable that the two Kirilloff calls are not only super impactful, but also the only two clearly outside of the established zone. Inconsistent, just bad in every way.
  24. 2wins87
    The mafia boss holding his family hostage? I would normally more or less agree with the sentiment, but the umpiring is a very real reason for that particular loss. The obviously foul "double" is probably the bigger game changer, without which Kirilloff is probably never batting in the 10th. We can never know what the outcome would have been if Kirilloff had been allowed to have a real at bat there, but the odds are pretty good for at least a sac fly or something. If they had played the game perfectly they could have overcome the umpiring, but they did a hell of a job coming back several times and nearly overcoming it. I honestly don't know what the other real reason could be when Twins did do more than enough on their part to win.
  25. 2wins87
    The game against the HOF lefty is the one I'm least optimistic about. Poor hitting against lefties has been a trend and that'll be another tough one. The Dodgers have been rolling and the Twins haven't been particularly good on the road, so probably 1 out of 3 is the most realistic outcome. Hopefully the offense can keep rolling and ambush Syndergaard to at least get the first one. Maybe they get another one in the next two as well.
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