2wins87

This has basically been my view lately too. The issue is more at the bench/depth level where Farmer and Celestino are the only two healthy RH hitters on the 40 man that aren't projected starters right now. At some point Lewis will come back and Garlick passing through waivers helps as he can easily be added back to the 40 man when needed. I think early in the season a lineup stacked against southpaws might still have 3 LH hitters. I don't think this is a disaster though. If Gallo returns to form he should be almost as good against lefties as righties. And maybe they won't have the optimal lineup, but I don't think a couple of bad matchups at the bottom of the lineup will matter that often if the top of the lineup does what they should.

I can't claim to really know any more than you just what I've read/heard over the years. But I suspect that the idea that a team has a strategy to spend X amount of money on X guys and Y amount of money on Y other guys, and that leads to some collection of players is probably almost the opposite of how the process works. Since it is a signing period and not a draft, I have to assume there is a sort of auction period between the trainers, scouts, and clubs that we aren't privy to since there isn't any public information at that stage. A team could take a stance that they won't go above say, $1 million for any player, and that would probably lead to a slightly different looking class. I think mostly though, it's just that scouts and trainers have relationships, teams get interested in a certain group of players through their scouts, they manage their pool, and when they have more interest in a particular player (and pool space) than other clubs, they come to an agreement by having the highest bid. As you say, a lot of that happens years before the actual signing. Is this the fangraphs article you refer to? It seems like under the current pool system some teams are over committing and reneging on deals late, so there is probably some opportunity for teams to swoop in on deals for these players late. I remember several years under the previous system where large market teams were deciding to go on international spending sprees every few years, so there might have been the opposite dynamic for a few years where teams were swooping in late with increased offers after they decided to spend. Mostly I think it's a long complicated process that relies partly on personal relationships between scouts and trainers, and where scouts also often have a significant amount of independence negotiating. I don't think most teams are really operating much differently strategically, it just ends up differently for them depending on the players in which they have the most relative interest in any given class.

I never really assumed he'd be available on a minor league deal. I haven't looked into what teams still have a need, but I still think some team will be willing to take a flyer on a 1 year MLB deal for relatively little money.

He always had the changeup, but the fastball was more like 90 or 91 when he was in the low minors vs 93+ today, so that's part of why he wasn't pushed fast early on.

The thing with a really good changeup is that it can be nearly impossible to distinguish from a fastball out of the hand so hitters may always be guessing fastball or changeup. Probably an ERA/peripherals around 2.00 is still the result of some significant luck, but I don't see why his pitches can't continue to work as long as he can command them reasonably well.

Well, it definitely hasn't been trades but Thielbar is the reliever who's accumulated the most WAR over the past two years and he was a career reliever coming back from near retirement. Moran was also excellent last year, so I'd like to see him start the year as a middle relief guy and have a chance to move up in the heirarchy if he can continue to pitch well and keep the walks under control. Megill I'm less convinced of but he's a pretty prototypical back of the bullpen guy with potential to put it all together and be better. I am fully on the "Pagan is just not as good as the FO believes he is" team, but we seem to be stuck with him for the time being so hopefully he either proves me wrong or they are willing to keep him at the bottom of the bullpen heirarchy and ditch him if he still can't put it together. Varland and SWR so far haven't shown any signs that they can't be starters, so I'd definitely keep them in that role for now, starting the season in AAA. They will certainly be needed in the majors before too long. Winder is the most interesting case to me. They need to decide whether he has any future as a starter, and if he still does then getting stretched out at AAA and being ready to step into the rotation when needed still seems like a fine plan. If they decide that he will be a reliever then he'd probably be the first one I'd want to try to work into the MLB bullpen. Henriquez and Balazovic could probably still both use some time proving themselves in AAA. On paper, the bullpen looks like it could be good but I'd probably try to add one more reliable looking arm. Fullmer would be fine. I think Chafin would be great as I think another lefty would probably be better than a righty, but I suspect the FO will not like his multi-year price.

Do we know that these are simple vesting options or is it a vesting player option? If he ends up proving to be pretty healthy and productive through his age 33 season I could still see him getting much more than $70 million in the FA market. I'd be a little surprised if Correa and Boras wouldn't at least want the option to potentially leverage that later on.

Yeah, the question left unanswered isn't whether it would be a good fit for the Twins or Sale, but whether it would make any sense for the Sox. They don't project to be anywhere near the luxury tax threshold and aren't overflowing with starters with more upside. I don't see why they would agree to a deal where Sale has significantly negative value. If they got an offer where they also got something of value in return maybe, but that would be a terrible deal for any other team. So I don't see why they wouldn't just eat the cost and hope he can bounce back rather than giving him up for nothing just to save the money.

I think the current pipeline will tend to be more underrated on national lists. I think Winder had a bit of representation on top 100 coming into this season, though he had a bit more MLB struggles than you'd hope for so far. Ober and Varland were also drafted and developed in house but never sniffed the top 100. Ober has certainly performed like a former low end top 100 prospect should, and Varland also looks like he could in his short stint. Currently I see Festa and Headrick as guys who could make similar jumps before even getting any national attention. I also liked Povich about as much as Festa when he was traded away. They also quickly traded away the highest pick they've made on a pitcher, which doesn't help. If the pitching pipeline is an issue I think it's more about drafting strategy than identification or development. They mostly just haven't taken pitchers in the first two rounds, focussing instead on high impact bats. The guys that I have mentioned have developed far better than expected just based on draft pedigree, and they do seem to be developing those types of picks better than the previous regime so far. The problem, of course, is that if they draft all of their pitching on days 2 and 3 they may have a good success developing mid rotation and bullpen guys while still being unable to develop that top of the rotation arm. To me the answer is obvious, they ought to be extra aggressive to bring in top of the rotation arms in free agency. Instead they've probably been more timid with free agent starters than in any other area.

Fangraphs currently has Sonny Gray projected for 2.2 wins and Rodon at 4.5 so I don't think it is a small difference. Even if you think the inning projection is too light for Gray there is a pretty big difference. Gray is a #2 who is de facto #1. Against which playoff team would you have liked him matched up against their #1 guy? That's my main point on having a #1. I like the young guys too, so for someone like Eovaldi I wouldn't really see the point. I think they will always be underwhelming in the playoffs until they find some way to get a #1 at some point. Even as much as I like their pitching development, I don't see it happening when their base talent level is college pitchers taken on day 2/3 of the draft. I'm a bit at a loss but I'm not going to continue putting more negative energy into it at this point.

I would make a distinction between Ace and #1 and say they don't have to get to Ace level. I agree it's still tough to get them in free agency. This year #1s were probably just DeGrom, Rodon, and Verlander. The previous year probably just Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, and Ray. So it's never going to be easy and always a risk, but I still think they should be more willing to take the risk when they've built the payroll flexibility and there is an opportunity for a guy they really like. I would have been fine with the Rodon deal. Maybe the more realistic scenario will be a trade with a big extension, but I feel like the whole point of payroll flexibility is the ability to make a risky deal. I also don't think we should take risk to be the same as a foregone conclusion of decline either. Look at the Scherzer deal with the Nationals. It looked like a pretty big risk at the time, and ended up being probably one of the best FA signings of all time. He was lights out for 5 years and led them to a WS championship. He did have injuries in the final two years but by that point the contract was already well worth the price, deferred money and all.

This is the general blueprint for a mid market team. It does seem to me that they have extension talks with basically all of their young regulars. They got extensions with the ones that were willing to take the team friendly deals, but haven't signed any of more questionable value. So I think it's been more about the players deciding that the deals met their risk-tolerance levels than the team deciding who they absolutely needed to keep. I'm sure they worked longer and harder on the Buxton deal than others, but in the end Buxton was willing to take a pretty team friendly deal. We probably could have pretty easily seen him walk or be traded had he held the line closer to market rate like Berrios. Anyway, the FO has been pretty good at that part of their job which led to the payroll flexibility they had to pursue Correa this offseason. I don't agree that a mid-market team can't ever compete with the big market teams. They didn't literally run out of budget space for Correa, they ran out of space in whatever risk-reward model they had for him. I'll defend the front office in many respects, but there is a bit of a pattern here. This is more about pitching side, but whatever the team's risk-tolerance level is on FA deals is, it seems like it must be well below that of other teams. Their final offers on their top targets always seem to come up short, especially when it comes to the years guarantee. Pitchers are riskier bets, so it makes some logical sense, but the types of guys where the risk has met the contract demands are the likes of Bundy, Archer, Shoemaker, and Happ. There's just no upside. You can certainly look at it as discipline, but if they can't ever land the high impact guys when they've made the payroll space, then instead of applauding their discipline they should probably be asking themselves if they've set their risk-tolerance level unrealistically low. It's tough for me because it seems obvious that a #1 starter has been the most consistent hole in the roster. The offense has generally been at least solid over the last few years, and they've done a good job of trading and development to get plenty of cost controlled #2-#4 types now. I just don't see where the #1 guy comes from if they don't at some point change their strategy.

The idea of the Twins taking on salary to avoid giving up prospects (or even add some) for a bounce-back candidate like Sale makes sense. The particulars of a trade for Sale seem very difficult though. The Red Sox don't really even really have a full rotation right now. They are probably hoping Sale will be their #1. It's hard to imagine the FO in Boston actually doing a full tear-down, so the money isn't really the main issue for them either. Maybe there is some 3-team deal out there where the Twins get Sale and some decent prospects, but a trade where we get a guy with negative value and give away prospects would be grounds for immediate termination for Falvey and Levine.

This is article is a little dispiriting. Trading for Carrasco would be fine. They have plenty of budget for his salary and it would cost zero prospect capital, so it would essentially be like signing him to a 1 year deal as a free agent, something this FO would love to do with every pitcher if they could. What would he actually get as a FA though? Two years? Baez is kind of similar to Swanson in that they would be good fits for a team with a hole at SS with absolutely no prospects potentially ready to take over soon. Neither are really on the level of Correa though who is good enough to push a good prospect off the position or possibly into a trade. This is where I think overpaying for Correa would have made sense while overpaying for Swanson really doesn't. Baez wouldn't have to be locked up as long, but in the same vein, it seems like a mistake in logic and roster construction to fill a position with a solid regular on a long term deal just because you missed on your star franchise player there. The middle infield depth in the farm system is pretty good. Lewis should be ready by midseason, and Brooks Lee could absolutely be ready by opening day next year. Rodon is currently the only guy I see where a significant overpay still makes sense. He projects to be a #1 guy for at least a couple of years. I think I am actually on the optimistic side when it comes to grading the team's pitcher development system, but they really only have a bunch of #2-#4 guys so I think it makes a ton of sense to supplement their development of cheap middle of the rotation guys with a true #1 that might cost a bit more than you'd like. I recognize the risk with Rodon, but they've built the payroll flexibility to take a risk and there just isn't any of the potential impact left anywhere else.

Honestly this could probably just be the entirety of the article. It seems so unlikely that I don't really even see the point in discussing the merits of Crawford as a player.

I don't even see Swanson as that kind of building block. Projections put him 2 wins behind Correa next year, which is likely his high water mark. His breakout season came with K/BB numbers continuing a bad trend. I think in 2 years Royce Lewis looks like the clearly better option not even factoring in how much cheaper he'll be.

There have been some very high AAVs but it's really been the lengths that have been surprising. I wonder if Correa isn't thinking he can get 12 years, given Turner and Bogaerts got 11, which probably could pretty easily get to the $350 million range. His bargaining position might be around 12/$360 to match Judge's overall value. I don't know if he can get that, but it seems like a reasonable goal if you are in his camp.

Correa's max arm strength was 95 mph, 5th in the majors this year among IF only guys (max velo OF throws are much different since guys get a lot more momentum behind them). His arm was as good as expected if you look at the right stat. Comparing to pitcher velocity is tough but my guess is if you add a few MPH for infielders and subtract a few for outfielders you would probably end up around what they could do off of a mound, so I'm guessing Correa probably could hit 98 off the mound which is right up there among some very hard throwing pitchers.

Nice to see some of the top performances coming out of the upper levels. I don't generally put a whole lot of stock into minor league relief performances until they can do it in AA or AAA.

I don't remember super well on Sisk but I think he was probably mid 90s with the FB when I watched him. The most notable thing about him is his arm slot from the left side, maybe not quite side-arm but below 3/4, giving lefties a really tough time against him. Laweryson is really only a low 90s max guy. I think he was 89-92 when I was able to see velo reading on him. He's got a funky delivery though, with a sort of glove flick out in front that I think must really make it hard for hitters to pick out his release point. The fastball seems to work way better than you would expect otherwise. Schulfer is a legit upper 90s guy, I think he sat mostly 95-97 when I watched him, and even hit 99 if you believe the radar gun in St. Paul. Might be sort of comparable to Jax in that he increased his velocity significantly in his first year as a reliever and throws quite a few sliders. No idea on the other guys. You would probably be able to see some radar reading on McMahon if you watch his appearances in some archived AA games.

I know they signed Nowlin out of junior college and went a little above slot to sign him away from Alabama. I remember hearing that he was another guy who had added a little bit of velocity this year, so I think he was getting into the mid 90s IIRC. Low A numbers can be a little deceiving for pitchers, but he's having a great season. Definitely worthy of at least a top 40 consideration for me.

Yeah the stats don't jump off the page for SWR but when I dig into them a bit more he looks a lot better. First off the Texas League is a tough place to pitch; when you compare him to other pitchers in the league his FIP is 6th and his ERA is 8th (minimum 50 innings). He's doing it as a 21 year old too, still one of the youngest pitchers in the league. I can see where someone could say that he's gotten lucky to have such a low HR/FB rate and BABIP in a high offense league, but I think there is reason for encouragement there too. He's had a 33% infield fly ball rate. With a 42% FB rate in general that's 14% of his balls in play that are basically automatic outs, essentially as good as strikeouts. I think if you looked at his HR to outfield fly ball rate that would look maybe a bit lucky still but would be a lot closer to normal. I'm also pretty sure I remember hearing third hand (probably on this site) that his "mysterious" injury was COVID, so probably not anything to worry about long-term health wise. Anyway, I'm actually pretty encouraged by his season so far.

That's a good question, I don't really know, I'm guessing he's in the bubble group. Seems with his positional versatility he could easily fill a utility role and he seems ready for a major league trial. Maybe he could sneak through the draft on the fact that he'll be turning 27 at the beginning of next season. Or if he were picked a team might not be too invested in hanging on to him if he struggles early do to his age. I think the FO likes to bring in a few veteran guys to fill the AAA depth roles, though I often wonder if the marginal prospects might often be the best options. Palacios did end up getting the fill-in shortstop role this year, though maybe if there had been a rule 5 draft he wouldn't have still been around. I would hope they considering giving him a 40-man slot just to be an injury fill in at basically any position. Seems like a useful role and we can pretty much guarantee he'd be needed multiple times next year.

Julien's K rate is 24%. Not great but not too bad. Always gotta use PAs for K% rather than AB, particularly for a guy who walks a lot so the difference between PA and AB is large. It's been good to see him getting to his power again lately. A guy who doesn't have great contact skills and relies on drawing walks probably doesn't translate all that well to the majors if he doesn't have power to back it up. If he keeps showing solid power I'll be encouraged.

I don't actually know how fast Helman is but he's 24 for 26 stealing bases this year and plays a lot of centerfield so I'm fairly confident he's significantly faster than Steer. He's a guy that plays all over the place and does a lot of things quite well. He's definitely been too far under the radar this year, and in previous years I guess too. I was actually wondering yesterday if he might get the spot Cave did with the outfield so banged up. I think Gordon is definitely a good comp for the type of player Helman might be from the other side of the plate. Statistically Helman's minor league career has been a bit better than Gordon's though not by a ton. They had similar K rates in the 15-20% range, Helman has walked just a touch more, and Helman also showed a bit more power early on. We have to keep in mind that Helman is just a couple months younger than Gordon right now so Gordon was much younger at every level, even when repeating AAA. Helman also probably wouldn't even be an emergency option at short, though he has had more experience at other infield positions than Gordon. Gordon is currently putting up a 109 wRC+ in the majors, so if Helman does that any time in the next few years that would probably be a pretty fantastic outcome for him. I think with Gordon, the disappointment from high expectations several years ago has made it hard to readjust and see that he's actually a very good player in the role he has.