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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    Winder was out there to save the bullpen last night. They knew Bundy was going to have a short start as he needs to build back up a bit. Ober will also probably have a bit of a short start when he comes back Friday or Saturday. Then the question is whether they want to go back to a 6-man rotation with Winder in Paddack's place going forward or keep him in the long relief role. He has seemed to be better in a starting role, though it's hard to say how much of that is random with only a few appearances in each role. I still lean towards giving him more opportunities to start right now. I understand the Lewis move, but he's been too good for him not to be back up sometime soon. He could be an important part of a playoff run. I would hope we see him getting some time at other positions in St Paul to get the experience to be a more flexible replacement for the next injury or come back in more of a utility role. I don't think he should be temporarily playing at first. He's too athletic and there's no chance it's a future position for him. Third base second base and outfield would all be reasonable positions for him to gain experience at though. It's very evident that the frustration is building for Miranda. He started out fine with a bit of bad luck and some contact that was just a bit off, but it seems that he's started pressing more the more he struggles. He may need to head back down to AAA to find his approach and swing again. They weirdly don't have many options at 1B now, but that shouldn't really be keeping him or Kirilloff on the roster if they need to figure things out in AAA. If they want to sit Arraez then Larnach could at least be a tall target, Garlick has a bit of minor league experience, Kepler has a couple of major league innings. They can always find someone to play 1B.
  2. 2wins87
    It looked like Julien was grabbing his hammy before being taken out (thanks to Tom Froemming for putting stuff like that in his highlight videos).
  3. 2wins87
    I'm excited to see if he can continue the dominance. Being able to sit in the upper 90s as a starter would certainly suggest that he can. He seems to be the leading candidate to be this year's version of Ober/Winder/Varland; a 13th round pick adding velocity and rocketing up the prospect lists. For replacement moves, it would be a bit of a surprise but possible that the PTBNL Brayan Medina could fill the spot. We also haven't seen 5th rounder Christian MacLeod yet but I think that is because he is injured. I think we could also see guys pushed up the ladder ahead of him. Gipson-Long or Headrick seem like candidates to head up to Wichita soon. Also, as long as they manage to keep Canterino healthy I think it would be a good idea to push him as quickly as his results will dictate.
  4. 2wins87
    I think we should be realistic about Pagan. His FIP is at 5.33 so far. His xFIP and xERA are better at about 4, but hardly supportive of his ERA and WPA so far. Those peripheral stats aren't outliers either, the season in Tampa and his rookie season seem more like the outliers at this point. I'm not saying the new pitch isn't interesting and maybe something that helps him be better long term, but I don't see much evidence it has made him better already. He does have a career high GB% at 43% (removing bunts), which could probably be attributed to the splitter. Looking at his baseball savant data with a little guesswork I think he might have 36% GB rate on his other pitches, basically at the high end of his career averages. That could be pretty big for him considering his career home run rate of 1.75 HR/9. Unfortunately his HR/FB rate has also been higher, leading to a similar amount of home runs this year, and the increase in walks--which have hurt him far less than they should have--can probably also be largely attributed to his new pitch. If he can get a bit better control over the splitter and the HR/FB rate comes down to his career levels then I can see a narrative where he becomes more effective through better home run suppression and maybe a slight uptick in Ks as well. What's happened so far though is that he's been lucky to have such a low ERA despite putting lots of guys on base and giving up quite a few HRs. Despite that, he has the highest leverage index of any Twins reliever when entering the game, which simply should not be the case. Joe Smith should clearly be ahead of him based on performance, I think it's uncontroversial that Duran should be ahead of him as well. Duffey and Thielbar have at times looked shaky too but probably should be higher leverage than Pagan as well. Even Jax has an argument. I don't know if the fact that the Twins traded away their closer/highest leverage arm to get him has led them to use him as a closer, but he really ought to be a middle innings guy until he shows consistent improvement. I would need to see him string together a few more good outings in a row before I really believe it.
  5. 2wins87
    I agree with pretty much everything you said here and earlier. Shortstop is easily the most demanding position in terms of overall athleticism, not just speed but quickness, reactions, hands, arm, agility, durability. It's usually easy to knock a prospect on at least one aspect of what goes into being a good shortstop. It seems like in the majors there does end up being a fairly wide variance on some of the skills, and plenty of shortstops aren't all that fast. It helps for a young guy like Lewis to have the speed and quickness to get to a few extra balls, but it doesn't really seem to be the most important thing for guys that stick long term. I was also very impressed by Noah Miller in spring training. First time I saw him make a play I didn't have the sound on, had no idea who he was and was very surprised when I eventually figured out it was him. He made a few nice plays, I think maybe the footwork was the only thing that didn't look quite as fluid as a major league SS in spring training. Only two errors on the year for a .979 fielding percentage. I would think that probably means the arm has been accurate and the hands have been pretty much as good as they looked in spring training. I've been very excited to see his bat get hot the last few weeks, he's got a lot going for him right now.
  6. 2wins87
    Seth described him as solid behind the plate in his preseason list. Fangraphs only had a blurb where they described him as "bat first". He hasn't appeared on any other lists that I'm aware of. He's only thrown out 14% out of 115 base stealers in his minor league career. That's not very good. Compare to Jeffers who gets ragged for his arm and threw out 25% in the minors. There is obviously so much more to catcher defense than that, but my guess is that it's safe to say he needs to continue working on his defense. The bat has been great so far though, with power and plate discipline, so bat-first backup seems like a reasonable possibility right now.
  7. 2wins87
    Hard to tell how much was Welke just giving Verlander veteran calls and how much was Ryan not hitting his spots well enough to get the calls. He did have a pretty bad miss on a strike for Verlander, I think I remember it and it was one where he missed his spot by quite a bit. Either way, Verlander took advantage of Welke's generous outside edge, and a strike zone that big will typically lead to a pretty low score. Verlander was obviously great, he showed how important good command can be. I wouldn't say he dominated the Twins lineup though. He struck out 5, and one of those was on a very bad called third strike to Celestino. The Twins put 4 balls in play with an expected batting average over .500 against him and only one was a hit. There were also two other well hit balls with xBAs of .350 and .450. The Astros played a much cleaner game and were able to be patient against some lack of control from our pitchers, but the Twins' xBA at the end of the game was .239 and the Astros was .242. So that's my silver lining from what looked like a pretty pitiful performance on the surface.
  8. 2wins87
    Scherff (from Boston for Robles) has been good too and is younger than both. Sisk has a lefty sidearm delivery. That kind of thing can often be funky enough to be tough on major league hitters as well.
  9. 2wins87
    Celestino was called up after just a month at AA last year. He wasn't nearly ready, and he only got at bats like every 3rd or 4th day when he was up last year. It was not a good way for a 22 year old to learn to adjust to MLB pitching. You have to consider the context before making judgements on the young guys. He actually adjusted incredibly quickly considering his situation. I think they planned for him to still be getting seasoning in AAA this season too but at this point he's become a necessity for the roster and he doesn't seem to have any need for AAA either. I think he's here to stay unless they somehow really need a roster spot, which doesn't seem likely anytime soon.
  10. 2wins87
    He pitched on Tuesday. Probably again next Tuesday.
  11. 2wins87
    Wallner has been so streaky, I don't know what to think of him. I have a hard time believing the success will translate to the majors with a K rate consistently above 35%. When he's on he just produces though.
  12. 2wins87
    Isola is in AA and could be in the mix next year. I'm not saying 3rd catcher is their ceiling, but realistically it is the most likely outcome. It's not meant as a slight, even in a deep system the most realistic outcome for anyone outside the top 20 is some kind role player probably doing a lot of shuttling between AAA. I think looking at prospect lists from 2013 or 2014 can set a good baseline. I actually think that the Twins' best catching prospects have tended to be underrated lately, and there are some interesting guys in the system right now, but I wouldn't be ready to put any of them in my top 30 right now.
  13. 2wins87
    I don't think I'd describe Rodriguez as an aggressive hitter. He's always been willing to take walks, including in the complex last year. He's had some swing and miss in his game, but he's cut down on that pretty nicely this year. I'm going to watch for him to continue to keep his K rate under 30% this year, and hopefully make a little further improvement in the future.
  14. 2wins87
    Noah Miller has really heated up lately after a bit of a cold start. I hope he can keep it up, what little I've seen of his defense looks really great for someone at his stage of development.
  15. 2wins87
    I mean, I'd be much more confident in the defense with Urshela/Correa/Polanco/whoever, but I am excited to watch the young guys play.
  16. 2wins87
    I buy this narrative somewhat too, though the difference between the % of lefties faced by Jeffers and Garver last year was less than I expected when I looked it up. 34% for Jeffers vs 43% for Garver. Then again, when Garver was out Jeffers was probably seeing nearly every lefty possible, and his OPS was over .800 in June and July last year. He also had an OPS over .800 in September 2020 when Garver also missed a bunch of time. Whether it was being hampered by not seeing many lefties or just not seeing regular enough at bats, I don't think it could be entirely a coincidence that Jeffers has always been good when he's had the starting catching duties. Probably those splits are a little bit fluky, but I think they also show that yes, Jeffers is a really good starting catcher.
  17. 2wins87
    It's a good question. The best prospects Isola, Camargo, Mack, all seem more likely to be 3rd catcher types. Maybe they could surprise, but I think getting a veteran backup will probably be a priority in the coming offseasons.
  18. 2wins87
    Lewis has been looking fantastic at AAA. I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll step in and help the Twins win some games right away. Big test of the depth now early with Miranda and Lewis filling in full time roles and Winder getting pushed into the rotation. If they manage to keep winning over this stretch we will have to feel good about the way the team is built.
  19. 2wins87
    He was supposedly finalizing a deal with an independent league team last week. Of course every team will be attending his starts once he starts pitching but I'd be pretty surprised if the Twins had a ton of interest in him compared to other teams. So far college pitching appears to be this front office's least likely type when it comes to first round picks.
  20. 2wins87
    Sounds like he was sitting around 93 in this start. He is old for the level, but I think we should have learned from guys like Ober, Winder, and maybe Varland next not to sleep on their mid-round college pitching picks. He's probably top of the list for a promotion. If he's made some refinements and is able to carry his success into AA then sure, he could be a GUY.
  21. 2wins87
    The AJ trade tree is pretty great too, including Eduardo Escobar and Jhoan Duran. Maybe the Cruz trade gets there some day but its not there yet.
  22. 2wins87
    While technically a trade, it was really just a rule-5 pick in spirit. I don't remember the specifics of why they did it that way, but the Twins wanted Santana and the Marlins wanted Camp. Terry Ryan just decided to get weird with it.
  23. 2wins87
    I wasn't sure what Wes Johnson & co. could do in such a short time for a guy coming over literally on opening day. That fastball heatmap for Paddack though... I'm sure the Padres didn't want him throwing it down the middle, and they must have been aware, right? I'm sure there's a difference between saying "Hey, don't throw your fastball down the middle!" and saying "Here's what we're going to do mechanically or mentally or whatever to keep your fastball up and out of the middle of the zone..." and I guess that's why Wes Johnson is so well regarded. Still kind of wild though.
  24. 2wins87
    Garver has a lot of power, that's a fact. I don't think we need to go back to 2018 before his breakout or slight his production since 2019 which has involved a couple slow starts and an injury to make the case for Jeffers. Jeffers has a lot of power too, though he has had a bit more swing and miss to his game which has limited the average and the ability to get to his power more. But, I would agree that Jeffers is closer to Garver than most probably have realized. When given the primary catching duties last year and starting out this year, he's been a lot more consistent at the plate. He was around an .800 OPS in Garver's absense last year and is now around .760 while offense is down overall. Given the relative age, cost, and defense, it really was a no brainer which guy to keep and which to shop. Garver has had some slow starts so I do think his batting numbers will look quite good by the end of the season. But I also think Jeffers won't be too far behind if he's able to get consistent at bats and see a slightly higher ratio of left handed pitchers.
  25. 2wins87
    I think he was in the mid 20's or late teens prior to the 2019 season. He was a lot like Bailey Ober a couple years later. Tall guy with good control for his size, getting deception from his height and putting up better numbers than the raw stuff would suggest. He missed all of 2019 after a Tommy John surgery and and I'm not even sure if he pitched at the alternate site in 2020, so he was just a big question mark coming into 2021 when the Orioles took him in the rule-5. His pitch location seemed really good last night, and I'm guessing it's not always quite so sharp. He was getting ahead painting fastballs in the top corners of the zone. When he missed, I don't think he missed in the zone so the Twins hitters didn't see too many good pitches to drive.
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