Hawkeye Bean Counter

Pretty sure it’s $23 million. If there is a floor we have to spend. If it’s a partial season or no season we are out minimal, and the talk is out there he would turn it down and the Twins would get one of the last comp picks. The team picking him may also not be penalized.

They will give him the QO. They effectively win either way.

Jackson has more value to the Twins right now than anyone they can get in a trade for him. He is currently penciled in as the backup catcher for next year and that is a great spot to be. Unless the Twins get a godfather offer, a massive overpay for Jeffers - He is currently worth ($6-$8 million for 2 months) you are better to play him - see if can outperform and do the math on if you can get a compensation pick. Now It gets weird how it will work with the new bargaining agreement. I hope they can negotiate it fairly quickly. I do think it gets done before the season. Plus Jackson is the perfect 13 man because he isn't a prospect you are still trying to develop. He is necessary insurance if Jeffers or Caratini gets injured.

Well you also have Adley Rutschman who at the time was rated higher than Lackey. He started off at a hall of fame level his first 2 years then has fallen off since. He has a slight shot. The biggest difference I see is Rutschman stats were in the Pac 12 while Lackey was in the SEC. Rutschman rated 65 slightly higher on power - much lower on run (30 vs 50 for Lackey) and a fielding of 65 vs 55 for Lackey. Most think with Lackeys athleticism the defense will improve. Adley is sporting a career .250/.327/.436 slash line. For a 60 hit tool the batting average is low and he has shown no where near the power that he was anticipated to have. Even still he is a 16 plus WAR in the last 5 years he just didn't reach his potential. Then you have Posey who was an absolute stud. Posey is the closest comp I can find at the college level. Henry Davis even though drafted #1 was a significantly worse prospect - lower in every category other than arm compared to Lackey. His batting average has been horrible at the MLB level. If I have any concern its that the hit tools haven't matched up close to production for Rutschman or Davis. As to Jenkins - I would say the ceiling is a more powerful Tucker. He can provide good defense while providing great contact with power. I really think he will fill out more and 30+ home runs per a year is what we will see from him. So far though injuries and performance wise the power hasn't quite shown up yet.

Here’s a question, of the players in the minors including Lackey, who has the best chance of being a hall of famer. To me it comes down to 2 players. 1. Lackey 10-20%, the defense is very good and the hit and power is elite. He is right in the conversation of tools similar to Posey, Mauer and Realmuto, it’s also a position that a 40+ WAR can get you in the Hall of Fame. 2. Jenkins- 5-10% age is on his side. Injuries are a major question as well as can he consistently be an elite hitter at the mlb level. These are the 2 who have a shot currently in my opinion.

Well then no one should be concerned if Jackson is holding that spot for the next 5 - 6 weeks as the 3rd catcher.

Jackson was the intended backup until Caratini became available at a reasonable price. Yes great insurance and he has been an excellent backup. Yes so we are slightly at a disadvantage for roster construction for 6 weeks. Honestly this has worked about as well as it could have all things considered. I stand by that Jeffers doesn’t get traded. He is worth about $6 million worth of prospect value. If he performs well the remainder of the year and turns down the qualifying offer- the Twins get a late round first. Say what you will this is also what Doogie says and say so on the draft podcast.

The defense is notably better in the last 2-3 weeks. Kreidler is providing excellent defense at SS.

He will be number 2. Initial reports are he will slot in at around 25 on the top 100 lists.

Pete Fairbanks likely isn't going to cold weather team due to Raynaud's. Its why he signed with the Marlins in the 1st place. As to bullpen help - I would guess we would focus on lower leverage help - 7th inning or setup man that come come fairly cheaply.

If you have been watching the box scores, as a whole in the minor leagues the Twins have been giving up lots of runs. Due to a lot of injuries throughout the system, the injuries and promotions have really thinned out the pitching. Now some of the pitching is coming back specifically at the lower levels plus there is opportunity for improvement. I would like to see both Soto and Hill pitch better at high A. Wichita will be getting Winokur. Quick is also moving up. I will be curious to see if this is a help or a hindrance. Debarge has been a disappointment. Generally the Twins have only had position players report to the minor leagues. I could see several of the pitchers especially those deemed to be relievers being immediately inserted into rosters. Just increase the depth throughout the minor leagues.

Overall this has the potential to be the strongest the bullpen has been all year. After the all-star break - Closer - Gomez Fireman- Morris Good Reliever - Sands, Nance Lefty - Funderburk, fingers crossed on Coloumbe That is something you can build around.

Then thats a 1st round comp pick if he turns down the QO. Thats effectively what I am looking at. Yes the last 2 months will make a major determination on his value. I understand that. Currently I am stating 50% chance which is what the current estimates are of a $60 million contract.

So you agree you aren't that far off of a 60 million contract. Thats affectively where I am at - with a blow out end of the year could end at that 80-100 million range.

12th whose above him?

How old was Realmuto when he got the 3 year deal???? 35 year old you say. Don't you think that is quite a bit different than coming into his 30 year contract. So you will agree that if Jeffers gets 1.0 WAR this year which isn't out of the realm of possibility he would come in at the Same WAR as JT - and 5 years younger. JT's biggest issue is his age and father time. This is the biggest reason why I think Jeffers wants a big contract. If he were to get to 3+ WAR he will want to cash in on a contract year. I don't seem him taking the contract like Martin Perez and not performing the next year. Here is Google - Ryan Jeffers is currently playing on a one-year, $6.7 million contract for the 2026 season. Because he is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, projections for his next contract estimate he could command an annual value in the range of $11 million to $15 million per year. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] Industry analysts and projections suggest a multi-year deal for Jeffers, one of the top hitting catchers in baseball, could land around $57 million over 4 years (averaging $14 million annually). Because he is a highly sought-after commodity entering his prime, teams competing for his services on the open market—or via trade—would be expected to pay a premium for his offensive production. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] If he ends the season strong I think the $15 million projections are low and $60 million is the baseline. I don't see how you can disagree with that.

The numbers you are utilizing are skewed. If Jeffers can continue what he did in the first half, his season will be drastically better than anything Caratini has done. Lets look at OPS plus for the last 4 years which seems to be what you what to be going after Jeffers Caratini 2023 134 94 2024 103 111 2025 110 102 2026 160 97 Career 109 91 Yes Jeffers is being carried by this years stats. Maybe he incredibly cools down. But other than 2024 Jeffers has outperformed Caratini - in a starter role - rather than being a backup Catcher. Yes some of this is based on Jeffers drastically outperforming the end of the year, but I think a 130 to 140 OPS+ which he would have done in 2 of the last 4 years would allow him to get a 17-20 million contract over 3 years. He will be viewed much more positively than Caratini ever was. These 2 are not on the same stratosphere.

Victor Caratini??? Based on what? You can go after my $100 million fine, but Caratini as a comp is absurd. Even still if you were to give 2.5 times which Jeffers has proved at a 3-4 year contract - that 17.5 million at 3 years for 53 million. Due to injuries I still think Jeffers tests the market - and the marginal improvement is worth more which means a 60 million plus contract. Jeffers is a step below Smith, Raleigh and Realmuto, but there is a large gap down to the other catchers who are at best mediocre. The biggest issue with catchers is the variability just look at Raleigh at the quick degradation on performance. Maybe I am wrong, but I really think Jeffers gets a significant contract. Year (WAR) Jeffers Caratini 2023 3.2 .7 2024 2.1 1.3 2025 1.3 .9 2026 2.0 .3 Total (4 years) 8.6 3.2

Anderson was already optioned to St. Paul. It will be interesting to see if they treat him as a reliever or the next SP depth piece.

Realmuto signed his 115 million contract in 2019. Raleigh signed an extension which took away his 3 option years. Will Smith has a 10 year 140 million contract. Currently Dingler has the highest WAR for catcher with 3.9, followed by Langeliers at 2.2 and then its Jeffers with 2.0. Fine if you don't agree he will be a $100 million contract, which I think is a possibility I will stand by that he will get more than $60 million right now and would place a bet now. With multiple years of 2+ year this isn't just a 1 off. To find solid defense with good offensive potential those just don't grow on trees. Now will the Twins be willing to take the risk of offering the QO. I say no, but if they think they will have to spend, along with several other teams, there will be minimal risk to doing so, and they could then trade off Jackson.

Cal Raleigh signed a 6 year $105 million contract - which also bought out arbitration years. Had he hit free agency Raleight would have gotten more than $100 million so this isn't a apples to apples comparison. Jeffers will come into free agency hitting 2+ War in 3 of the last for years and likely with 2 - 3 plus WAR. Do to the lack of decent catchers that hit free agency he will have significant demand. We won't keep Jeffers its why we are carrying 3 catchers. I go deeper into this on my previous post. As to the Twins, they are effectively stating they aren't selling. They have said no on Ryan and Jeffers, unless they tank the next 2 weeks, and Larnach and Bell appear to be safe as well. They think they can get to the playoffs, and honestly, their arrow is way up. The offense is beginning to hit on all cylinders, the defense is improving with Kreidler manning short, Lee doing better at 3rd and Clemens doing admirably at 2nd. Lewis is holding his own at 1st. You deal with the roster crunch for 6 more weeks. They will be fine.

Mid season Review What has worked - The offense is starting to click. The Twins have multiple players beginning to get hot. Larnach, Lee, Clemens, Lewis, Caratini, Bell. Jeffers coming back. Buxton has been a beast with the bat again. The offense is legit. Injuries galore - Starting pitching got hit hard. Losing Lopez, Abel and Festa hurt. Having 8 plus starting arms coming into the year was a godsend, but the depth is maxed out, with minimal option left. Found a star - Bradley is becoming the starter we expected to have in Lopez. The Twins have as good of a 1-2 punch in Ryan and Bradley as anyone in the league. Bullpen - Bend but don't break. Yes the ERA is the worst in the league, but its more been blow outs of games we were already losing. They have not had the blown saves or holds like they had at the end of the year. Again injuries have hurt - Banda, Sands. Wow has Gomez and Morris really stepped up. They appear to be the 2 high leverage relievers to rely on the rest of the way. We need to find 2-3 more. Nance is a good start and Sands is coming back. I really really hope we can bring back Coloumbe. We have more needs than most and a knowledge of what he can do. Minor deals have worked really well - Larnach back at 4 million looks great in hind sight. Bell at 5.5 millions looks good down the stretch when he typically gets hot. Caratini was godsend when Jeffers got hurt. Jackson looks like a legit backup catcher which is why we are keeping 3 catchers. At this point, I would deal with the roster limitation for 6 more weeks until we get to Sept 1st and the roster increases. Caratini and Jackson are a great duo for next year. Banda really settled in prior to the injury. Rogers for 2 million has done a ton of leverage work. That a lot to expect out of a declining arm. Gomez is an absolute find as stated before. Kreidler is manning the SS position admirably. Clemens has improved over last year. If the only player to not really pan out was Orze, this was an extremely successful rebuild of the bullpen all things considered with minimal resources put into it. If the Twins can begin to really solidify the bullpen into the strength which has some possibilities, the Twins could become a decent threat in the playoffs. 2 good starters can carry you and the offense looks decent. They are still likely too aggressive to succeed in the playoff but its a start. If Nance, Sands, and potential Coloumbe can lock down the middle relief then, you are looking at adding 1-2 bullpen arms at the deadline. Considering where they started at thats a major win.

Jeffers would be the best catcher hitting the market with plus defense and plus offense. If he finishes the year strong and he hits the market he is getting a 5 year $100 million contract. He will not be taking a 1 year 22 million contract. He will take the payday and be happy. Edit - since some disagree, does everyone agree that the Yankees have a massive need at C. Depending on how things go, he will most likely sign a big contract and well over $50 million. You offer the QO and see what happens.

Well Twins version 3 of the bullpen we will see soon. Good to Exellent relievers 1. Gomez 2. Morris Average 3. Nance 4. Sands 5. Funderburk Unknown - 6. Go 7. Rojas - I think he will be a starter until Priellip is back. As a reliever Could be elite Below Average 8. Rogers 9. Paredes 10. Adams. We picked up Anderson - it will be interesting if he is more of starter or a reliever for us. I also think its a no brainer to pick up Coloumbe and pay some cash considerations to Boston. He slots in ahead of Funderburk in my opinion. Injuries and underperformance for a lot of the relievers has hurt- but most of these players had question marks coming in. Sands also appears to be coming back after the break. Say what you will but I am cautiously optimistic with some of these pick ups the bullpen will be able to hold their own down the stretch.

I think they saved a little money on some of the pitching prospects. On the Show they thought maybe 250k savings on Lackey. There may be a little savings on Tinney but to get to 2 million for Wachsmann there is probably some savings on some of the pitchers from 4-10 - Raab and Lay specifically. With that said the pitchers the Twins targeted are swing for the fence pitchers in the middle rounds with several with extremely low floors - or will be relievers which could be a change. Lapour. Murdock and Burns all profile similarly. Lapour can touch a 100, Murdoch 99, Burns 100+. They all have 1 good secondary pitch and not much else and all with some control questions. I think they will see if they can develop a 3rd pitch to become a starter but this is the 3rd major point that is a change of previous drafts. The Twins look to be drafting relievers. Prior drafts everyone seemed to come in as a starter and they would work them through as piggy backs. Its been one of the reasons the minor teams haven't performed as well. There just haven't been relievers in the system at basically any level. It was transitioning failed starters.