Hawkeye Bean Counter

Giving a Qualifying offer doesn't mean the Twins will be spending $20 to $25 million on kepler. The strategy would be that you would get another late 1st round draft pick like we did with Sonny Gray.

To be fair I picked 8 of the 24 batters that have signed so far. I ignored Ohtani and Lee, and a bunch of players that signed below 8 million dollars. I think I covered over 70% of the players remaining. If you disagree with my stance fine, but so far between steamer values and contracts signed it has been pretty spot on with my thesis. Honestly there are only about 15 more batters that will sign for more than $10 million a year that I will be trying to keep track of. We act like there is a massive amount of players that command premium contracts. Kepler has had a 2 WAR every year other than 2020. That is insane consistency. If he finds more consistency with his bat like he did last summer and fall, he is a top 20 outfielder that will command a very strong contract.

Anyone want to hear my opinions on Kepler LOL?

Cody Bellinger I think will be a pretty good comp for Kepler. Both are expected to be 2.3 to 2.4 WARS for Steamer next year. Now he will be 3 years younger. Spotrac has him at a 5 year 112 million contract. I believe he is looking for a contract north of $200 million. Personally I think Kepler has a 4 WAR year and will get a 3 year contract in the 60-80 million area. But for now going to leave it at that. On the kepler QO most fans are pretty steadfast on their views of him and his potential value in a contract situation.

I don't believe I am. I have shown 8-10 contracts of batters signed this year and it is all matching up pretty well so far.

Conforto signed a 2 year $36 million contract last year. He has has a significantly lower WAR than Kepler most years. Joc Pederson accepted the QO after a 1.4 WAR season. He had a .6 WAR last year and has a steamer of 1.6 WAR for 2024. He is expected to sign a 2 year $32 million dollar contract. I just don't see many examples of players getting significantly lower contracts than $10 million/expected WAR.

Chpettit without putting words in his mouth has basically stated if he has a decent year at the plate with his continued good defensive outing would get the Qualifying offer. If he has a 3 WAR or higher I think he is a shoe in for a Qualifying offer. I think it gets more dicey in the 2 WAR range.

Ok, if you want an odd one, lets look at Harrison Bader. Signed a 1 year $10.5 million contract. He has a steamer of 1.6 WAR for 2024 and spotract expected him to sign a 4 year 60 million dollar contract. I know there is some injury concern there, but that is currently your best argument at a defensive outfielder getting less than $10 million per a war. Heywards supports my claim, and then you have Michael Taylor still sitting out there if you want to ignore Bellinger because he has too good of a bat.

1 WAR and less players it gets a little wonky. However I have thrown out every contract this year signed for 1 WAR and higher players and other than Garver who may have signed a discount, the valuations are right around $10 million/WAR.

What I have an issue is everything shows contracts are going for around $10 million per a WAR. So if you expect him to get a 2.4 WAR next year, how is he not worth around $24 million? I am a CPA and numbers guy. This is simple math. 2.4 times 10. And if you don't think a defensive corner outfielder is worth that, show me something that disputes the valuation when the best comparison right now is Teoscar Hernandez who signed for a little more than $10 million dollars for his expected WAR for 2024. Kiermaiers steamer value for WAR in 2024 is you guessed 1.2 WAR for 2024. What did he sign for $10.5 million. Heywards Steamer valuations for 2024 is .9 WAR and he signed for 9 million dollars. I never ignored your point on Heyward, what I stated is he got a contract for what he is valued at in 2024 which is 9 million. Your argument is not supported by the numbers. Fangraphs seems fairly close to their valuation on players and how teams view them.

Offseason2+Proj WAR 2018 $9.3 M/WAR 2019 $7.8 M/WAR 2020 $9.5 M/WAR 2021 $5.5 M/WAR 2022 $8.5 M/WAR Those are contracts giving out and what teams were paying for 1 level of WAR. Obviously 2021 free agents got shafted due to Covid. However the currently group of free agents is getting close to $10 million again for WAR and I have seen it could rise to $11 million next year. Candelario has a steamer value of 1 WAR next year but came off a 3 WAR season similar to Kepler and got a 3 year 45 million contract Gurriel has a steamer value of 1.1 WAR, Had a 2 WAR last year. Signed a 3 year $42 million contract. Garver may have taken a discount. Has a steamer value of 1.6 WAR - signed for 2 years $24 million. Teoscar Hernandez has steamer value of 1.7 signed for Present Value Contract of $19-20 million. Kepler had a 2.6 WAR for fangraphs and a steamer WAR for next year of 2.3 WAR. Looks like they readjusted calculations slightly. So for Fangraphs he has a higher future valuation for next year than Candelario (almost double) - yet I get the sense most think the max Kepler would get is basically the Candelario contract. On a one year contract he is worth right around 25 million for 2024 year. We will see how he performs and what the expected value is for 2025 if he is not traded by then.

I have a feeling MAT's contract will surprise people. He has a steamer value of 1.0. So his contract should come in at 10 million or north of that per a year. Value is value. Spotract has him at a 2 year 14 million. I think he will come in between 2 year 17 million and 2 year 20 million or a 1 year 10 million. Kiermaier has a steamer value of 1.2 and signed a contract of 10.5 million.

The small hall voters are generally the private later individuals.

Then what changed in the 2nd half? Something repeatable or what you would classify as luck?

Well of your list I only think Rizzo and Teoscar are comparable with low 2.0 WAR prior year (Keplers was 2.9). Rizzo got a 2 year $40 million contract (and he was offered the QO) and Teoscar didn't get the offer and got a 1 for $20 mil contract. I will not consider Garver due to his significant injury history the last couple of years and his steamer value of 1.6 for next year. A low 2.0 WAR player is in the borderline category which is exactly where Kepler is at and shown by Rizzo and Teoscar. So of those 2 Rizzo was offered and declined and Teoscar wasn't offered and came in right at that QO amount. A single WAR is worth 10 million right now and I wouldn't be surprised if its pushing 11 million next year. Teams want wins, and getting a 2.5 wins above replacement is worth $25 million. This isn't rocket science. Analytics value Kepler as a 2.4 WAR player for next year and Teoscar at 1.9. Teoscars 1 year contract came right in at what his value is worth. So yes this still comes down to you don't think Kepler is worth his 2.4 WAR for the valuation of around 24-25 million on a single year deal. Ultimately this is all an eye test and what fans value kepler at and its clear you don't value him on what the stats are telling you.

Chpettit, LOL I looked back and he has the lowest BABIP of any player since 1990. Ok, is some of it luck, is some of it lack of quality contact and some of it do to the exaggerated shift against him, I would agree its all of it. He was a 149 OPS+ in the second half of the season with a .306/.377/.549 slash line. What happened, he did a hell of a lot better on the first pitch. The other thing is we were facing the 2nd weakest set of opponents in the 2nd half so we do have to take that into consideration. I think Kepler will be above a 2.5 WAR which I believe will be a QO candidate. You also have to know what type of individual Kepler is. He is not one that is inherently aggressive or overconfident. Its why he took a team friendly extension to lock in those dollars. I don't think he is one to bet on himself by accepting the qualifying offer, he will want to lock in salaries for an extended period. It is very clear both you and Mike don't see him as a 2.4 to 2.5 WAR type player which is silly since thats what he has been as a floor since 2019. Ultimately it will come down to production. However as I have stated Candelario's and Teoscar's contract show Kepler is worth much more than most Twins fans are willing to give him credit and I would say yes he is a borderline qualifying offer that will be dependent on his offensive performance in 2024. Here are the lowest career BABIP totals by all MLB hitters with at least 2,500 plate appearances since 1990: HITTER BABIP RH OR LH? Max Kepler .247 LEFT Rod Barajas .248 RIGHT Henry Blanco .250 RIGHT Mark McGwire .254 RIGHT Carlos Quentin .255 RIGHT Joe Crede .255 RIGHT Maikel Franco .257 RIGHT Tony Batista .257 RIGHT Joe Carter .257 RIGHT Jeff Mathis .260 RIGHT

.780 OPS, so a step back on 2023 number, significantly better than 2021 and 2022. However like I stated, I think you have to add .20 to .40 OPS when you remove the exaggerated shift. Kepler went from the most unlucky hitter in all of baseball in 2021 and 2022 , to one of the top 10 luckiest hitters in the last 3 months of 2023. All we need for him is to be average LOL. Remove the outliers and you have a very solid player that is well worthy of a QO. However if he continues to get more quality hits early in the count rather than trying to defend the plate and hitting weaker contact with 2 strikes, you will likely see a better Kepler. Will teams start to throw more junk early in the count? If they do can Kepler adjust and then have more 1-0 counts which means that second pitch will need to be a quality pitch or the at bat is significantly trending Keplers way. Kepler just willing to give the 1st strike was a killer for his production in my opinion.

Heywards steamer is a 1.0 WAR, or effectively 10 million. Keplers is 2.4 or effectively 24 million. Quite difference. Teoscars is 1.9 or 19 million, voila he received a present value contract of 19 to 20 million. Do we see a trend here?

Chpettit, I already stated in previous posts, I greatly think fans are underestimating Keplers value. I also have as a baseline than he will be at minimum a .250/.330/.470. 2021 and 2022 don't matter as much, as the over-exaggerated shift is no longer allowed. You add in a more free swinging confident Kepler and you are looking at a 3 WAR minimum player.

Not many players average 2+ WARS as a floor Mike, and both Polanco and Kepler do. Teoscar WAR 2023- 2.1 2022 - 2.8 2021- 3.8 Kepler 2023 - 2.9 2022 - 2.2 2021 - 2.1 If Kepler discovered even a 20% improvement over his baseline from the end of last year, he is a slam dunk worthy QO. He was nearly a 4 WAR in the last 3 months of the season. Kepler has a projected steamer value of 2.4 while Teoscars is 1.9.

Teoscar on a 3 year likely would have been right around the 50 million mark. I think Polanco and Kepler would both net more than 50 million on a more than 3 year contract.

Top 10 doesn't mean squat, it all comes down to what you are worth. Teoscar was always on the fence of being a QO and his slightly down season made it not worth Seattle's risk. Kepler has a much higher floor with his defensive skills. If his offense is even decent he is a much better player than Teoscar. Kepler has a career WAR of 20. Teoscar's is 12.8 and Polanco's is 17. Polanco and Kepler have consistently been much better players than Teoscar and average close to 2 WAR or higher as a floor for several years.

Chpettit, if Kepler is his 2020-2022 version, that is still better than Teoscar. If he is 80% of his second half performance, he is a guaranteed QO. If he is early season Kepler that would be a negative. However, Kepler swinging earlier in counts at better quality pitches, than out of the zone and poorly hit balls can be replicated.

If a player is worth 20 mil yes it gets complicated. The Twins can do the math, but right now Kepler is likely worth 25 mil on a 1 year contract, and on a 3 year well above $50. Above average players will continued to get paid very well. There is lack of quality it baseball. Polanco and Kepler are very good players and worthy of QO.

You are correct that Polanco has 2 more years, but you still have the potential in 2 years of a QO so it should be included in your trade compensation. How you do that I have no idea. All I know is a late first round draft pick is worth a lot more than mediocre prospect.