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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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  1. Interesting Twins still in the market for a starting pitcher in FA per Morosi. Those in that second tier still remaining are Ryu, Lorenzen, and Clevinger. Snell and Montgomery are likely out of our price range. But very interesting development. Showing again they are valuing depth and options. There are a few further down option but those appear to be the main targets for about 4-6 teams.
  2. Marlins may think Twins stock pile good players and may not maximize them on the hitting side.
  3. 200 million for a player who has had 2 good seasons out of the last 5 with sub mendoza years thrown in, does not sound like a good use of that money.
  4. Prato and Kiersey are decent options as well, just not as well known. Really helps if Bubba Thompson passes through waivers. Gives another option. Right now Options are what the Twins are trying to create.
  5. Bellinger is a pipe dream. I truly think MAT is the final move. Get your defensive backup, unless you really trust Martin to be on the big league team.
  6. I understand questioning it. Its not as strong as last year, but its not bad compared to previous years. Actually much stronger. We still have the opportunity to improve it. Not sure if we will or not, or run with what we have. I really really like what we are doing in the bullpen, and I am more optimistic on Buxton that he may actually be healthy. If I were a betting man would be tempted to put some money on them this year. They have a chance to be special.
  7. We have a few question marks but I like the starter options. You have your #1 in Lopez. Haven't had that for years. #2 This is your question mark. Paddack, showed me something in the playoffs. I think he has the chance to be something special. He has the highest ceiling of any of our pitching options beyond Lopez. #3-#5 you then have Ryan, Ober, Varland and Desclafani to fill 3 spots. Yes I would prefer 1 more solid option but that is a strong starting lineup with a bit of depth. However you are counting on Paddack showing something he hasn't during his career. As to Gray, I think he will be a solid starter the next couple years, but I think last year will be his high water mark on the remainder of his career. We have saved our prospect capital to use it if we need it.
  8. I fully agree. I think the front office saw how beneficial it was to have the great depth by SP and Hitters last year. Quality MLB players make a huge difference on winning games. Bullpen - Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stewart, Topa, Jackson, Okert, Then Staumont (possible 60 day) Alcala, Funderburk plus the options we have in AAA and I will be curious if we are able to pass through a couple more options throw waivers tomorrow in possibly Duarte, (soon to be) Weiss and Balazovic to add to Jensen, Bowman. Pretty Clear Varland will remain a starter option.
  9. LOL, for a team that has just kind of thrown a bullpen together, we seem to want to try to build an elite bullpen by accumulating as many options as possible. Not sure how we can carry them all.
  10. This team has a very high ceiling with a healthy Correa and Buxton (I know know 😉). If Kepler is the Kepler from the second half with Lewis and Julien. Those are 5 very good to elite batters. I like the pitching staff, especially if Paddack and Desclafani are healthy.
  11. Damn you beat me to it. I really like Miller, and his walk improvement, OBP and OPS rise throughout the end of the season, was a major reason for success of the high A team, but also a hopeful precursor for things to come with Miller.
  12. If Priellip is on the list, it means he has been healthy and productive. He will not be in the majors in 2 year after not pitching for almost 3 years.
  13. To me this is just taking the high draft picks and throwing them up on a board. Ok lets look at outside of number 1 or number 2 picks in 3 years who is in AAA on the verge of mlb and top 5 pick. My top player basically because it is the safest pick and I have a ton of confidence in is Tanner Hall. In college he was an elite pitcher with mediocre fastball velocity. If the Twins add 3-4 mph to his fastball, with his command and secondary pitches, you have a low end #1 or a high end #2. That will play and play well in the minors. Corey Lewis - the kids stuff is nasty. 5 pitches, can handle them all well with 1 of them being a randomly thrown knuckleball that hitters have no clue what to do. A sub 2.5 ERA in A and A+ ball. He can pitch. If the stats continue he will continue to rise on the prospect list. I am going to cheat here. 1 of our pitcher picks in rounds 8-13. Stoffal, Dougherty, Dunn, Langenberg, Pasqualotto, Lee. That is a stupid amount of talent in the late mid rounds. Every year we have lower picked pitchers in the draft flash. We picked better talent in these rounds than we normally do, and more of them. I have no doubt one will flash, and be a very very bright spot. For hitters, I think Jenkins and Rodriguez is up in 2026. So I am left with 2 outfielders to pick from Winokur and Gonzalez. Gonzalez has the hit tool. Winokur has everything else with a questionable hit tool. I lean towards Winokur. I think he will flash more and will be viewed more as an athlete with power and elite defense, while Rodriguez is a bat only option. Invariably 1 of our other draft picks will be up there but I am going to throw out a wild card. Noah Miller. Some may laugh. The kid is already an elite defender at short stop. Late last season something started to click. He had an .820 OPS in August. Look at his OBP rise - June .240 July - .320 August .354 Sept .365. That is a kid figuring it out and becoming more confident in his approach. He also had 38 BB in his last 2 1/2 months, only 61 during the entire year. His first half was crap with the bat . He was our minor league version of Kepler. If he can begin to be more consistent and bring a high 700 OPS low 800 OPS as a defensive shortstop, that is a hell of an asset. We have some pitchers with high ceilings we just don't know much about them or have injury concerns. Priellip, Soto, maybe even Questad to a degree. There is just too much variability and lack of performance to be confident in picking any of them as a top 5 prospect in 2 years. I hope they flash, but the track record on high school pitchers or heavily injured players is not good.
  14. Didn't they do that with Correa, Buxton, and Lopez. With a payroll our size there is only so many of those contracts you can have. I think managing a ball club is a lot harder than most here think. Who would you have signed this year, and then we will discuss if it was a realistic option. As to injured players, in my opinion they got Desclafani for free or in my opinion actually a negative asset in the trade. If he is injured he is put on the 60 day and we are in the same spot. Lets see how Paddack does this year. Maeda performed pretty well for us all things considered. Mahle was a train wreck. For your concern spending on a player like Joey Gallo- you also had players like Donny Barrels, MAT and Castro sign for low money or even a AAA contract and perform well above expectations. The dollars spent on depth last year won us the division. So I find that a weird angle to go after. You will hit some on Gallo like players - but most times won't. In reality we took the same risk the cubs did with Bellinger. Its just Bellinger paid off. Honestly, regarding payroll dollars I wouldn't have signed Correa the 2nd time. I would have traded him at the all star break. Now that may work in our favor keeping him, but I wanted Lewis as our shortstop. We may end up though with an elite infield. Lewis, Correa, Lee. Correa can slide over and one of young bucks take over for Correa if his defense starts to decline. They have rebuilt a team, organization and farm system. The Twins are expected to win the Central again. Is that truly failure even if in a weaker division. Although I will say the Central appears to be on an upswing. Of mid to small markets, I think only the Rays have done better in the last 7 years. When you look at the farm system we have a ton of promise coming up, we will see if it comes to fruition.
  15. I agree, we are on the same path here. Pohlads felt comfortable letting the salary be high knowing a lot of the salaries would be coming of in the next few years.
  16. Who were you going to sign that was going to make a difference? The only contract that made sense at this point would be Sonny Gray. 3 years $75 mil is a fair contract. The issue is we got a very good draft pick for letting him go.
  17. If he isn't healthy, it means the strain isn't healing on its own, or with PRP injections, meaning he will need Tommy John. Even if cleared I am going to be having Paddack nightmares in those first 2 months worried it gives out. If he can get 3-4 months in should be good to get through the season.
  18. Do you trust Montgomery to perform like he did for a 1/2 season for the next 5-6 years? I don't. The Twins don't spend big on pitchers for free agency. Yes if he wanted a 1 year 20 mil contract I think the Twins would jump on it. I don't see it happening.
  19. 1 question for everyone, do you believe ownership allowed the Twins to skyrocket payroll for 1 year last year after they had already pivoted away from Correa and then were able to sign him. I fully think last year was a one off. Add in the RSN issues and its a 1 off the other way. Even still the team is in my opinion having better health and depth than last year, especially in the bullpen and then at this point with Buxton (knock on wood). Yes I would rather have Gray than Paddack, but with that being said Paddack may have even a higher ceiling than Gray especially in a playoff scenario (even though he hasn't shown it accept in fleeting moments). For me a lot comes down to the health of Desclafani. Is he even a pitcher we can count on this year or not. If he is I feel a lot better on this season. If not then we need to make another move at some point and may still need to make a move on the SP market even if he is healthy.
  20. Staumont when he talks is already throwing the ball. Maybe not at 100% and maybe taking a little longer to get his feel back. I agree I don't think they plan to put him on the 60 day. The only change in that philosphy is that the plan was always to put him on the 60 day, and treat him as almost a trade deadline player that you don't have to trade any assets for. Desclafani's situation is just weird as he hasn't been given an all clear for almost 8 months.
  21. I really think we need another arm. In reality we have room for 1 more player, 2 if my biggest concern comes to fruition and Desclafani is put on the 60 day and may be done for the year.
  22. Honestly he could stay healthy, my concern would be is the following. Adrian is a much better contact hitter than Buxton. To me buxton would have to improve his contact. Right now just too much swing and miss.
  23. I would agree if you put those 2 together into 1, you would have potential hall of famer.
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