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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Look at how we have drafted over the years, in reality have we spent any decent draft capital on pitching . . . the answer is no. Since 2017 here our draft picks in the 1st 3 rounds used on pitching through 2021 (Leach, Enlow, Canterino, Petty, Hajjar, Povich). We used a 1st round pick on a pitcher in 2021 and turned it into 2 great years of pitching from Sonny Gray and an additional 1st round pick this year. We are just now starting to see the team using more early round picks on pitchers. We have a few options that can be #1 or #2 pitchers but we are building up a pretty good group of arms that can be back end of the rotation starters. When you look at the total picture what they are doing is really amazing. I will let the players continue to perform. I anticipate strong finishes at all levels in the minor leagues this year and the players performances and rankings should go up accordingly.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Small sample sizes are small sample sizes especially when several of your best players are injured. Duran will immediately solidify the bullpen, which hasn't been bad but can put everyone else in their correct roles. Miranda, Larnach and Kiriloff all doing well. Making up for Wallner going MIA. Martin has held his own, Kepler and Santana are beginning to warm up. This team is still set up to do very well this year, just need to keep hitting well, and continue to get good pitching performances. I thought it was silly coming out with this article last week, thought we should wait until at least this week to see if we can hold our own against poorer competition and then see how we do against better competition when at full strength. Chpettit, you have great baseball knowledge, but like many on the board focus too much on past mistakes, issues beyond this managements control and in general like to jump on the team when performing poorly. After this winning streak, other than the week in review how many positive articles are out . . . none. How many negative articles came out last week . . . It seems like some enjoy when the team is doing poorly rather than doing well.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    With what money, or what trade? Varland up to this point hasn't worked out. I think Paddack had a good outing. Lets see if he can get on track. SWR is being given an opportunity, will see what happens.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This isn't just a Twins issue, that there are major issues with their revenue model will continue to be an issue. I still think Desclafani was a mandatory add in by Seattle, I think the elbow was shot and everyone knew it. Its just the Twins were willing to gamble and see how long the rubber bands would last (as shown not long).
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Show me a team not plagued by injuries?? Massive injuries specifically of pitchers. I think this is part of the reason, Twins are really cutting back on starter innings especially early on. Easy them into it. As to overall strategy, what the front office is doing leads to ultimate results on whether the team is successful. As to where our farm ranks, personal as of right now I think ours is slightly above average, would rank in the 13 to 14 range. I fully expect it to continue to improve and have a fully stocked cupboard within a year. Fully expect in the 5-10 range unless we are trade players away.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Look at the players we have traded away, let alone in the reds system. Yes Orioles are #1 because how many early draft picks have they had?? I didn't say #1, I said #3 or #5 especially when you considered where they were drafting. 19 - Steer, Julien, Wallner, Varland, Canterino 21 - Petty (top 100 prospect), CES MLB player, Povich, Festa 22- Lee, (several pitching prospects) 23 - potentially franchise altering draft with Walker leading the charge. Other than Orioles show me another team that has drafted that well, especially drafting later because you know they have won their division 3 out of those 8 years geesh you have high standards. You need to succeed but also draft in the top 5.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lee and Walker look like legit MLB players with potential all star potential. Soto is young but early returns look good. Winokur in SSS looks pretty good. Rodriguez and Gonzalez continue to excel at the things they do well, but still have things to improve. Festa looks like could be a solid mlb pitcher, Raya is too hard for me to tell. The quantity of solid arms in the minors is really starting to grow. Lewis, Festa (Canterino and Priellip we will see if can pitch and how well) , Morris, Soto, Raya, Culpepper, Morris - then your 2023 non headliner picks (Hall, Questad, Stoffal, Dougherty, Dunn (looking very good) Langenberg, Paqualotto, and Lee). We only need 1 to really become that #1 pitcher. If you compiled the 19, 21, 22, 23 drafts, the Twins have to have a top 3 record of drafting, at worst top 5. We have used a lot of draft capital to support the mlb team through trades. You keep drafting well year after year after year, the results will show up at the big league level.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Then you better change your fandom to the Dodgers. They are the only team that I see in the foreseeable future that is guaranteed to effectively win every year. Other organizations are trying to win too.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    As I have said before if you are that upset with management or performance this isn't likely going to change for the Twins in the near term. Their success in the last 8 years is something that can't be taken away even if you think it was poor competition. It does look like the Central is becoming a tougher division for the foreseeable future. 4 decent teams. 1 non contender. When did they exactly lose 18 straight games . . . all during this managements tenure . . . where are you going with this it. It looks like you have 20 year so pent up frustration. If I remember correctly me and you had this exact same discussion last year. I've come to the conclusion you are a glass half empty I am a glass half full type of person. If you followed baseball, divisions are not won in April but they can be lost, and like I said being close to .500 is not losing the division. I look at the entire organization. The talent in the minors is really becoming interesting. There are potentially some foundational pieces that may be coming up the pipeline. So yes, looking at the big picture, what the Twins management is doing and has done, I am very happy with. I am also not willing to throw in the towel after 20 games. Ultimately better just leave it here. You can continue to be upset with the direction, I will continue to cheer on my team.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Show me another team other than the dodgers that have starting caliber players on the bench??? It just isn't reasonable.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Correa played how many games last year??? As to Lewis, a variety of injuries I am still not willing to say injury prone. Buxton yes, yet he has been the healthiest one and maybe has turned a corner. They didn't have the options to buy higher level talent. Be upset with that what you wish. The long term plan is still in place and you have to admit there is still a better than fair probably they get to the playoffs. Also when did we get smashed in the playoffs??? Just curious must have missed that last year. Yes we lost, but we were not smashed. Their strategy is for long term success while fostering success at the MLB level that they can. Poor division or not, you answer your own question they are still winning. For a small market team they are doing pretty well. Yes I would like them to succeed at the upper echelons every year but I am happy with the current direction.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You should not expect Lewis and Correa to get injured. Yes we platoon players but players that are playing that really are not replacement level players shouldn't be expected to performas great players. So what are you going to say if the Twins win the division at the end of the season . . . the FO flawed approach hindered their winning but they won despite it? Slumps happen, losing streaks happen injuries happen. Keep improving and get better the next day.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    SSS yes I can. Also as to legitimate players still up with the team you have Kepler, and Santana. Miranda and Julien are above. The rest are backup or AAA players, again injuries is making a reason why they are up or getting more at bats that they can, and there is an aspect of luck and possibly early season issues. Obviously there is a large contingent that disagree, as I got 5 down votes. However if we sweep this series and get back to .500 in the next week or so, really we are not in bad shape at all. Reinforcements are coming.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Dang 20 games in and already the blame game LOL. Injuries have been the biggest issue and its not even an option.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    8 months later and this draft is looking very very good. Jenkins last year looked amazing. Need him to get healthy, but he appears to be stud. Soto so far is performing exceptionally for an 18 year old. Winokur right now is a steal as a 3rd rounder and Keaschall just continues to hit. The pitching is where this draft gets interesting. So far Questad has been held out. Hall has had a couple rough outings (honestly not worried about this one, he has consistently performed) as well as Langenberg. However, promising starts for Dunn, Pasqualotto and most importantly Soto. If we can have 5 solid pitching prospects from this class, with Soto leading the charge, with the bat prospects, this class is still on track to be a franchise altering draft.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    SSS- but is Cespedes figuring it out? Dunn is starting to lead the charge on the 2023 drafted SP. I still have high hopes for this group of arms, and honestly Dunn has a very high ceiling. Really the minor performances overall have been very good. Need players to continue to get healthy and players to get to their correct levels. I am still optimistic about the Twins season, but very optimistic about our farm system. They continue to draft quality players. 2023 is looking like a banner year. Walker, Soto, Keashall, Winokur are all looking very very good.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It appears Soto is dialing back the velocity a bit (similar to Petty's progression although I do expect more velocity due to his size with Soto), while still being able to get it up in the upper 90's when needed. Control is still a bit of an issue, hovering around 60% strikes from what I have been seeing. However, the stuff is there for the strikeouts. The quality of the pitching is definitely matching his potential. We have to remember Soto, he has a high ceiling with a low floor, due to his limited pitching (which is both good and bad - limited innings, and limited bad habits). So far so good, this pick is looking very promising. Like Gast I have been very excited about this pick.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Early sample size, even though I was against it, that Doncon for Miller swap is looking pretty good right now. Overall, I like where the system and even the major league roster is looking. I know rough start over all and injuries, but I think once players get back, which they are starting to with Kepler, then things will start to improve across the board. You remove the injured players and really overall for early in the season, most players are performing pretty well. I continue to like Winokur, I think he will be a really solid player down the road. He seems to be settling in. He does have 3 errors early in the season, may be showing SS is a little bit outside his range, but will continue to monitor.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Bullpen hasn't been a focus, and I really don't think its worthwhile to spend a lot of assets in bullpen arms in the draft. You can sign some, convert some starters and move on. Varland very well could end up back in the bullpen. I think things will get better at all levels on the pitching front and W/L need to just get through this patch and get healthy.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So let me get this straight . . . based off of his first true game experience, you are comparing him to a pitcher that has had significant injuries on how the Twins will handle Soto even though they have not used that same treatment with any other pitcher??? They are going to build him up. Looks like he was dang impressive in his first outing against players his level. That looks very, very promising. Lets see how the summer goes, but I am very optimistic on his potential. A #1 or #2 pitcher this system needs. He has a build and motion that should be able to handle the stress of going 5,6 or 7 innings a game. Just need to continue to develop his command and effectiveness of secondary pitches.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You have a healthy buck it changes the dynamic of this team. Disappointing on Lewis but he will heal. Get through the next couple weeks. See if Correa and buck can lead you. Sweeping the Royals would be a nice start.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He has the ability whether he can or not is a different question. His pedigree says he can, just look at the stats I posted. Now MLB is a jump up and actual umps calling strikes, but he is showing more consistency of hitting the ball. What are the odds, 30-40%. I feel more comfortable about him succeeding in MLB for the long run than Wallner.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Martin had a .387 OBP in AAA last year. I don't consider being in the .370 to .400 range as lofty expectations. That is what I hope he does while acknowledging it could be lower. How are they similar. First off, both know more for bat first players working on their defense and both trying to find a position. Both High OBP players. Austin Martin 2021 .414 2022 .368 2023 .381 Ed Julien 2021 .431 2022 .441 2023 .435 (minor league) .381 MLB They both have a similar skillset of commanding the zone well with more power from Julien, more speed from Martin. If Martin can be in that .370 to .400 range that is an incredibly small group of players. There were a total of 14 players in the mlb who had an OBP of .370 or higher. So Yes in comparison, Julien and Martin could be very valuable offensive piece if he can continue to perform at his historical levels.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Martin has the potential to be like Julien, well outperforming expectations. He has excellent command of the strike zone, just needs a little more contact. That had been improving going back to his previous style rather than going for more power. However I want to see more consistent with higher BA and OBP ranging in the .370 to .400 range. That will allow him to be a menace on the basepaths.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Actually it has when you are trading minimal assets for that player. The rogers for Paddack and emilio pagan trade worked for the Twins. The trade with Seattle works for the twins, even removing Disco. The Mahle trade was a bad trade even before the injury. When you are treating the players as negative assets you will win, just by counting cards. Effectively we paid 4 million on Disco for better prospects in exchange for Polanco. Yes if healthy he could have been a 2 to 3 quality pitcher. However there were ample signs along the way his rehab was not going well.
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