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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    They got the value of what they did due to the medicals on Desclafani. He was a thrown in and a negative asset at 4 million a year. We don't get the prospects we do without taking him on. The Twins were willing to eat some salary on him, get the prospects and see if he could remain healthy. He couldn't. On the upside, Varland looks good, really good so far. You also have a potential pitcher in Festa.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You got high expectations then. A kid with 2 plus plus pitches doesn't impress you that throws 98 mph. Likely amped up for the game and pitching against hitters much more advanced than him. This is going to be a major instructional year for him. Chase Petty in 2021 looks like he was a little further along as a pitcher. However between the Twins and Reds, he decided to cut back on velocity, focus more on location and quality of the pitches he is throwing. He has had two years in a row of arm discomfort, so they are probably trying to reduce stress on the arm, while maximizing his ability. He is a top 100 prospect but the ceiling is coming down. Soto's ceiling is sky high but he isn't currently in the realm of a Petty. He seems very similar to Brody Brecht of the Hawkeyes who is a draft prospect this year and 21 years old. He went 4 innings into friday game, 1 run, proceeded to give up a hit and 2 walk and was pulled. His ERA is like 1.8, ton of strikeouts, but is only throwing strikes at about 58-60% clip and his whip is 1.46. Crazy amount of swing and miss will occur from both players, but they are going to have to learn to control the zone to become a high end pitcher in the big leagues. I am ok with taking the gamble on Soto, and he is exactly on the track I would expect for a pitcher who has really only been a pitcher for a year or two. Wait and see.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You are not paying attention to how Lopez treats spring training. He treats spring training as experimentation and refining pitches he wants to work on. I think one spring training game last year all he threw was his new sweeper nothing else. “Pitching is an art; pitching is science,” López said. “It's about having the tools, having an idea of what you want to work on, to make sure that's what you're working on that day, stick to that thing. Next bullpen, it's going to be something else and something else, and then it's going to be a big final product.” Same thing with the 0-2 sinker that Olson took deep on Monday. López knew he hadn’t thrown any 0-2 sinkers to lefties last season, so he challenged himself to try it and see if it could factor in at points this season. “It didn't work out; he hit it like 600 feet,” López said. “But it's like, maybe that's not the right guy to do it if you're going to attempt a pitch like that.”
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Have you looked at the lineups? In general 7-8 minor leaguers, maybe 1-2 name hitters, the odd game where 4-6 big leaguers. As to the pitchers, primarily bull pen games. Also the pitchers are working on pitches, not what they can do well. I do not know, but I am guessing Topa is working on something, also getting a homerun or two, inflates the states in a SSS. Lets look at the positives: 1. Buxton - Looks healthy looks to be swinging well, and running well. Homers and triples, sign me up. 2. Correa - looks heathy. Buxton and Correa as top 30 players if they stay healthy should really be a big help. 3. Julien - Looks to be replicating last year. 4. Ober - wants to take over the #2 role. His stuff is nasty. 5. Varland - may take over the 5 spot and not give it up. No major injuries. Only real set back is to Disco. We will see if he can give us some innings this year or not and how successful he is. I will be keeping an eye on Kepler and Wallner. However for now, I am very pleased with spring training. This team will be very very good. 93-96 W is my guess.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am a big Kepler fan, I also think he has figured something out. In 21 at bats so far, and a .693 OPS he is not quite showing it. Granted, he may be trying to work on something. I am beginning to think he may be a player that takes a while to get in a groove and once there does well. How quickly can he get to that point this year. .700 is still better than what he did last spring, but I want him in the .800 to .900 range this year.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Petty was having elbow soreness last year so they took it easy. He has also dialed back on his fastball and now averaging in the 92-94 range. He is still a very good pitcher shown by top 100 status, but the ceiling is coming down a bit. As to the Twins philosophies, I think they like the high upside of high school pitchers generally in the late 1st til about 3rd round - I feel last year was an exaggeration due to how deep the draft was and the fact the Questad was willing to signing for $500k. You add in the fact we had a relatively empty pipeline when they got here it is not surprising they went more to the college pitching route to try and boost the pipeline more quickly with more developed pitchers. Early reports on Soto look good. I am looking forward to game action from him. He is fresh ball of clay with an arm that doesn't have a ton of mileage which is good and has some downside in that we don't know how much of a workload it can handle. With his body type I am not too worried, he appears to be very well put together. The pitching side of the farm is something I am very excited about. I think there are a lot of quality arms at all levels and the cream will start to rise to the top.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Twins take on pitchers with questionable health, like a Desclafani, because they are getting them either for free, at a major discount. Disco for $4 million even if he blows out his arm will not make or break our season. For $4 million he could be a significant depth piece. I am disappointed, his spring has been slowed down, and he hasn't been able to work on his new pitches as much. This pretty much guarantees that Red Sox will be signing one of the 2 remaining big pitchers remaining and throwing more money at the problem. Damn Giolito went from guaranteed of a top dollar contract, to taking a 2 year prove it deal, to likely looking like a Paddack type pitcher you are hoping can get healthy again.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    But we should be worried we don't have a #2 . . . . . . . . This is tongue and cheek. We just need health in our starters and this has the potential to be just as strong or even slightly better than last year.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Do we though? Did Arizona have one? Did Texas have one? And are we sure we already don't have someone that could fill the void? I think I would rather have Paddack than Gray in a 1 and done playoff scenario. He did better in the postseason than Gray albeit in a different role.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Noah Miller has the potential if the bat comes along, to be a key piece in an organization. However we got an outfield and flipped prospects for someone who has a high ceiling as well but a much lower floor, as Miller could be your defensive shortstop/no bat player right now.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The team is B+, A-, Management B to B+, Front Office C- to D, The front office gave the management the freedom to sign Correa last year as a a 1 year higher salary with the realization they wouldn't have any big money for this year. I am ok with that, especially considering next year will be much higher. We have a nicely constructed team, and tons of assets on the farm. Right now, what version of Disco we get will be a big determination on this year. If we get the 2021 or early 2023 version it will be very good and if Paddack performs well be may actually have a better pitching staff than last year. However we got Disco as a throw in because of the elbow, and he was already shut down for 2 days and ramping back up. I feel good he is ramping back up, but I don't have high confidence he can get through the year.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Brecht lines up with what they like, elite slider excellent fastball.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He has a high ceiling but he is right around where we would take him and there would be a ton of variability. If teams see him as a reliever (a 2 pitch pitcher), Joyce was selected in the third round. It all comes down to his stats his year. He is closer to a 3 ERA he will get drafted top 10. His ERA is in the 4's he is likely a 20 to 30 pick. Its no different than last year Dollander dropping from consensus #1 pick to #9. I don't follow the draft early that much but he is definitely a player I am keeping tabs on. The draft
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It doesn't have to make it better than last year (even though it could) it just has to make it better than it currently is. He is an option that has the ability to not only to hold up if called upon, but possibly excel. I love Miller more than most think he was turning it around, however we got a prospect that is currently at a similar level rank wise as Miller with a much higher offensive ceiling. It a real question who is the better prospect. This trade is going to be determined by luck and whether either one is able to get to the big leagues.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He's not lost his stuff just isn't quite good enough or deceptive enough to be a strikeout machine. He becomes a much more effective pitcher if he can limit the amount of balls put in play and remove some variability of babip. He is a solid #3 or #4 pitcher if healthy with potential of #2 type results. For $4 million its worth the risk.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is an effective Major leaguer if his velocity on the fastball is between 93 and 94.5. I do question if he loses much deceptiveness with the different arm slot or not. I don't think it will. I think the increased velocity, with his pitch mix will pay dividends.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Desclafani has some things to work on but he knows it. Im hoping one of the pitches click. I think you have a 4 ERA player with out a swing and miss pitch. I think you have a #2 pitcher if he can find that strike out pitch. “I’m trying to dial in a swing-and-miss pitch,” DeSclafani said. “I think that’s something I’m in desperate need of.” In that regard, he’s toying with two new offerings that he has workshopped this offseason: a new sweeper that won’t replace his cutter but aim to act as more of a swing-and-miss pitch, and a split changeup with more depth to replace his traditional changeup, which got a paltry 15% whiff rate last season. It’s been a mixed bag so far, with the quality of those pitches worse in camp than they had been during his offseason development, DeSclafani said.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am saying something fundamentally changed with Miller last full. No different than I think something fundamentally changed with Kepler last fall as well. The difference with Miller was his zone discipline improved immensely. He began walking much more, improving batting average, and beginning to get a tad more power. His OBP in July through August were .321, .354, .365. That is a player that is showing improvement. Now it is A+ ball. Understood. He is also 21, no offense I don't care what he did as an 18 an 19 year old. I care what he is going to do. He had a .648 OPS last year. His first 3 months he had an OPS of .550. His last 3, had an OPS of .750, and if you looked at just his last 2 months he had an OPS of .790. In the majors really only needs to be a low .700 number or high .600. However, yes I do see where he could be an .800 guy.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I don't agree with that take. He had .823 OPS in August of last year and effectively helped lead the team to the championship last year. The question is can he continue to improve is plate discipline as he did last year. An .800 OPS player with his defense is a very valuable piece.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    NM
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This trade bites us if Miller becomes a competent bat. I personally think he does. However if you were going to trade him, this is the year after the fall he had. It appears you picked up a similar prospect so effectively Margot as a throw in for a year. So it comes down to who is the better prospect - Miller or Doncon. Doncon is younger, but likely a better bat, but Miller can be your no bat defensive utility player now. He has the chance of developing to be slightly below average bat with elite defense. From what it appears Dodgers were instigating this trade to open a spot for Kike. So ultimately I think the Twins got the better end of this trade. Will have to wait and see.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Damn, that sucks. Said it many times I really liked Noah Miller. Margot is a decent backup outfielder. Hopefully Doncon shows something. I don't know much about him other than he is 20 years old. Curious where he would rank in our prospect rankings.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    At the same token what did he say??? Nothing about a specific person, he said we are not in the market for 30 million/year players. We are looking at less expensive options. In a nutshell that is what was stated. They have no case since he did not call out a specific player. At best a minor fine. They will just say, don't do that again, I was on the right track on saying we will look at any opportunity and then just blurted out No LOL.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Im wondering if this is a AAA signing.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Thats a nice gamble for the marlins.
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