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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Would the Giants be interested in him at all? Would they do a Lewis for Arraez straight up? - I am starting to come up with a reasonable direction for moving forward 1. Arraez for Lewis - move Clemens back to 1st - the production on the right side is improved. Its a short term gain but at this point I don't think Lewis is in the long term plans. This move alone would be looked on positively by fans and would give cover to the front office for getting rid of Lewis. 2. Jeffers and prospect for Hancock. Utilize Caratini and Jackson as the catchers. 3. Trade for another leverage reliever and call it day. Hold on to Ryan unless you get a crazy offer. The offense is flat in my opinion but you are gaining one of the best contact hitters that can work a count. Starting pitching is improved. Bullpen is improved and you didn't have to give up much prospect capital to do it. I think all in all most would be ok with this outcome.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lewis has let a lot of his frustrations out through interviews and indirect channels. This isn't assumptions. Those in the media have routinely hinted to Lewis dissatisfaction with the Twins and hinted he wanted to be traded with everyone else least year. He wasn't happy when he was demoted he seems to be doing better now per se, but if the Twins were to get a decent offer he is shipped. Right now I have him as the 2nd most likely and he could the #1 most likely if I would know if the Twins are considering on giving Jeffers the qualifying offer or not.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The AAA affiliate for the dodgers is known as a bandbox. They say decrease OPS by a 100 points for a realistic number.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Falvey effectively set up the team this year. Hired Shelton, was the reason for the trade sell off and theory that you can rebuild a bullpen. Which is the reason why we have Bradley. Zoll is much more of a rubber stamp than Falvey which is part of the reason why Falvey left he wanted more autonomy and realistic expectations than Zoll. Zoll took the position because it was a step up - but he has done very little in the position. As to the bullpen this is entirely Falveys philosophy that you can build a bullpen by rolling through DFA's - its not like they players wouldn't have been available if Falvey was here and we would have avoided them. If you want to give credit you should give it to Latroy Hawkins. Its still not a good to great bullpen but its becoming a functional bullpen and still needs some pieces.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    For the MLB trade calculator he is a 7-10 million expected value. I could see someone thinking he could get hot or they can tweak him to get to an all star level. I could see something either as a 2 player trade, 3 player trade or being combined with Jeffers for a better player or prospect. Its really hard to say and what I don't know his the Front offices opinion of him. Do they still see something that they can squeeze out of him or do they think he is effectively done. On the podcasts they keep referring to 1 player who wished he was traded at the deadline. I can almost guarantee it was Lewis. We know it wasn't Buxton, Larnach has made few statements and Jeffers has been the primary catcher. At this point its all speculation. I can come up with some potential scenarios. It likely has to be another high level previous prospect that hasn't panned out. Yankees have several of those thats why I am tempted to think they are the most likely trade partner. I know it was mentioned some yesterday but I could absolutely see a player like Volpe being swapped. Volpe for Lewis straight up? Would Yankees even want a Lewis - most likely not. My personal preference would be Elmer Rodriguez for Lewis/Jeffers but I don't think they would want to do that either. Jeffers and a prospect will likely be needed to get Rodriguez.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Yes Tom, a Pohlad never the less. At that same breakfast he stated the team had outplayed their sum of parts by having such a great clubhouse. He is talking out of both sides of his mouth, just like when he said they would be buyers and bring in more bullpen help in the offseason. I guess he though signing Rogers to a $2 million contract and trading for Banda was enough. He has tried to thread a needle all year by having a decent team to increase attendance while utilizing minimal prospects in trades. Rebuilding the bullpen has honestly gone about as well as can be expected, but even still it is not a shutdown bullpen for the playoffs. Ill gladly wait and see what happens. I think the most plausible scenario is them being buyers and sellers but who knows at this point.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Diminished how so? With the potential strike, Ryan getting traded for just as much prior to the season than now. Larnach if he keeps hitting could increase value and a comp pick for a QO for Jeffers could be just as valuable as a prospect. Just stating there may not be a hidden cost at all.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Do you see this as being a massive winning year? Yes or No This team has outperformed and Joe said as much. So then the question becomes do they have to sell off. The 3 assets most likely to be traded are Jeffers - who can be offered QO, Ryan who still has all of 27 under contract, Larnach who is arbitration eligible. The Twins do not have to be sellers. If they buy lightly so be it, but putting a lot of chips into a season or a team that is not ready to compete is mediocrity itself. I have readily admitted I would be fined with a Hancock deal, beyond that small deals. If they didn't and they continued to let this team play and the title of this article "hidden cost" - there is zero hidden cost. All assets can be traded later, and if we miss the playoffs so be it. What is the advantage of going to the playoffs and getting booted in the 1st round?
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is a sunk cost. I don't see him improving in the future. He made some progress and seems to be reverting back. As a first baseman there is minimal value. If someone is willing to give us some value I absolutely take it.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    They ended up exactly even with a Bouchard oversign by 35K. Lay only received 75K which is wrong on this site and a couple other sites.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It wouldn't be the worst case outcome. The Twins would still be eligible for the lottery as its currently structured and would likely still have a decent shot at another top 6 pick. I still see them being light buyers and they may do a bit of buying and selling. Hancock is the only player where the Twins may give up some decent prospects for and I would be extremely happy about it. Seattle and the Twins have done some good trades in the past so I think they would be willing to work with us. Beyond that lets just wait and see what happens the next week with the team and then see what they do at the deadline. We still only have a 25% shot at the playoff so this shouldn't be an all in scenario and standing pat would be fine as well. Jeffers can be offered the QO. Larnach is abritration eligible another year as well as Joe Ryan. Standing pat would be a perfectly acceptable option. Even still another reliever would be nice.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Hancock Brazoban and Arraez would be my targets. Reasonable value for all of them I personally would trade Lewis, then prospects to even it off. That shouldn't be anything that would drastically hurt the farm system. I personally think this team would be better with Arraez at 2nd and Clemens at 1st. Arraez would bring a lot more professional at bats to the team. He shouldn't be drastically expensive and Lewis is someone I don't just trust on the line or in the system anymore.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I was just going to say this. In the playoffs what we have lacked is professional hitters. Working counts getting hits when you need it. He will be reasonable to get and raises the floor on the entire team. It also removes some risk of Lewis reverts to previous form.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Nice wins across the system. I’m not sure what happened after the all star break, but the pitching at all the minor levels has improved. Getting people back to the correct levels is likely a key part. Tait is having a really good year. He also seems to be going on a bit of a heater now. .250 BA with .300+ OBP with his power and he is still a top 20 prospect.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Actually you could do the Sonny Gray trade every year. Sonny was on a very reasonable deal which is why we traded for him. $11 million and $12 million. Let’s just call it $15 to $20 million a year now So. For your top 2 arms a year you are paying $35 million. That is not constricting the team. Now you are absolutely losing upside. However actually salary isn’t the issue in this scenario.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I completely agree. Everyone in the pen is a spot or 2 higher than they should be. Right now Anderson is a borderline pen arm or #4/5 pitcher. Personally if he stays with the Twins I think Starting Pitcher is where he will land and they may even move him there before the end of the season. In either case he had a moment today and good for him. We have been operating with arm at the bottom of the pen who shouldn’t be in the MLB for the last year. So to actually have a borderline bottom of the pen arm is a massive upgrade to what we have been working with. Getting Sands back and in a position where he doesn’t feel he has to carry the load should really help him and the pen. You are 1 high leverage arm away from having a legit bullpen. Say what you will, miraculous, smoke and mirrors, or this is proof the fire sale of the bullpen was smart- this has worked out in this instance. Give Latroy Hawkins some major kudos as well. He is getting his boys ready, confident and helping get them into spots where they can be successful.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Volpe wow. He is Knoblauch with the yips. He literally can’t throw the ball to the baseman. 3rd, 2nd, 1st it doesn’t matter and this was for a players whose defense was hits strong suit. You can get him cheap and he absolutely has to leave New York. I think he is potentially redeemable. He would likely take Kreidler spot as the backup, absolutely zero overpay but it’s not an awful idea. it would be a similar situation to Bradley. Obviously there are some fundamental things to work on, but this is a confidence issue. He needs a new start and has been a 3 war player for multiple years. I pull the trigger.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The issue is the demand for catching is white hot right now. Seattle, Yankees, Rays are interested. Whit Sox need a catcher for the next 5-8 weeks but trading within the division will be costly. I think the value at the trade deadline will be more than a comp pick. M
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    With potentially 5 teams needing a catcher the Twins should be able to get surplus value in trading Jeffers. If a prospect needs to be added to get 3-4 years of a starting pitcher you do that deal every day. Starting pitching is still my biggest concern in the next competitive window.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I just like looking at the box score and seeing the twins pitched four relievers today with ERA 3 or lower. It’s amazing what can be done when we have some competent arms in the bullpen. Still some work to do but this game alone shows they are beginning to pull their weight.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    With Emma and Tait they are players that are immensely talented with risk profiles that will potentially limit them injuries for Emma and hit tool for both him and Tait. I am willing to trade both as we now have some talented outfielders and catchers in the system with less risk and similar upside we can capture the potential ceiling value while removing the risk it doesn’t pan out. I am still willing to trade high school arms for 2-3 years of #2 pitcher. I would do the Sonny Gray trade every year if we could pull that off.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I’m trying to piece together the trade calculator- Would anyone bat an eye if we traded a package based around Rojas to Toronto with a sweetener for Varland?
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We have Royals and A’s now to make up some ground.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is an option. Trading Jeffers for an MLB SS for the playoff run - from a position of strength for a position of weakness is smart. I would prefer we would go pitching. I know we will have some pitchers getting healthy, but the pitching at the upper levels of the minor leagues is depleted. We have a handful of players you can consider and thats it.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Today's win felt like a season definer. Right now Jeffers is the wildcard. They can trade him now. They can ride him out and let him go. Or they can offer him the Qualifying offer and see if he declines. You can get value from him through 2 of the options. I am willing to kick the Ryan discussion another 2 months and give this team a shot. As to the rest of the team, 1-2 relievers and maybe another starter is what we are looking for. Prospects I am willing to trade based on the value of the potential players. Tait Rodriguez, Hill, Gonazalez, Soto, Mendez, Young, Winokur, debarge, CJ Culpepper. ect and pretty much any prospect 20 or lower. I don't see a legit closer coming over. 7th to 8th inning reliever with upside - like a Varland from last year but likely cheaper. Red Sox are likely buyers - otherwise Sonny Gray would be a very interesting trade proposition. I would do that trade every day. Where it comes from I have no idea. Why Sands isn't back up with the team yet is baffling.
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