Hawkeye Bean Counter

Looks like we got the good Kremer again today. If can start out well can generally go 5-7 innings.

I like him but no one is trading a Jenkins or a Culpepper for him. It effectively proves my point on Neto. I’m putting Neto and Clemens at a similar offensive value. I’ve been Clemens biggest believer in last 18 months.

His fielding even coming out of college was considered average at best. Even if there is discrepancy in how being reviewed no one claims he is a high end defensive shortstop. I have a co worker who says the best of Zach Neto is likely behind him even though he is 25. He thinks his defense is average to below average. He says he strikes out to much. I get the sense similar to Sano. Also if his defensive is no longer adequate his offensive bat isn't going to be as valuable at 2nd or 3rd base. His value is almost entirely created from his 20 home runs. Its effectively Clemens. The issue is you created a time period and there is a reasonable conclusion someone could value one of the other shortstops in the last 40 years more than Neto. Personally I think WAR has overvalued Neto in my opinion. But thats my opinion which is why I would take Gagne over Neto and Guzman is close but I likely take Neto but its not a massive difference.

Teddy Bridgewater is the one I think of. We have to assume there is likely some structural damage as well. I hope for the best but most likely this injury is going to limit him in the future.

I'm not Dave - but I would definitely take a young Greg Gagne over Neto any day of the week fwar aside. I think Guzman and Neto are a push. As to Houston and Culpepper - both of their hit tools are better - much less strikeout risk in both. Houston will definitely provide better defense and Culpeper I will state would be pretty similar although that one is up for debate. As of now the projection is Neto provides more power but I am not sure 1. he can continue it 2. that Houston or Culpepper can't meet it. Neto's contract will now start to increase as he is in the arbitration years. So when the upside is much better on both a Houston and a Culpepper and you are effectively get a good but not great player in his current form and that may already be trending down I don't see the appeal for what would have been a massive haul. They had started with Jenkins and the haul would have been multiple players, not just a Culpepper for Houston straight up.

Vahn Lackey Lackey has a legit chance at having a hall of fame career and at worst will be an above average defensive catcher. He has already thrown out 5 base stealers out of 12 attempts. He is an extremely polished hitter, the only question is how much power will he have. Marek Houston Call me pie in the sky- but I truly believe he is the 2nd best prospect in the system. He was known as having elite defense - check. He was known as being a very good contact hitter - check and even better than anticipated. The concern was the power and it appears to be solid. What was never really stated was the speed. He has nearly 40 stolen bases. He is only 10 months older than Jenkins. I see him having a similar type career to Derek Jeter if he is able to perform to his ceiling. Walker Jenkins Jenkins has done everything right coming up through the system. I am knocking him for 3 things. 1. Health 2. Power 3. Not having premium defense at a premium spot. The majority of the value of Jenkins is a projection of power that hasn't shown up yet. I expect it will, but to what level. There is also much more competition of elite bats to compete with in the outfield of MLB. He also plays solid defense but it won't be something that will offset if the bat doesn't live up to its hype. Kaelen Culpepper For a player who I still think is a top 25 global prospect it seems criminal to have him as a number 4 prospect in the Twins system. The defense, bat and power have been better than advertised. Houston appears to be the longterm short stop which will ding his ceiling a bit. He will likely end up at 3rd with his strong arm or create quite the double play tandem with Houston if he ends up at 2nd. Riley Quick An NFL body playing pitcher. Probably should have stayed in A ball. The ceiling is still really high and there is a significant gap between Culpepper and Quick. Eduardo Tait Tait is still 19 and a few more questions have arisen regarding his hit tool and catcher being his primary defensive position. The power is real though. Tait seems to be settling into high A and really starting to make consistent contact. The defense continues to improve as well. Hendry Mendez The bat is real. After a trial at 1st base to start the season he has played almost exclusively in the outfield. Prior to Houston's hitting explosion, I had Mendez as the best hit tool in the system. The power is gradually improving as well. Emmanuel Rodriguez When healthy Rodriguez continues to rake in the minors. If Healthy he is right up there with the top 4 with concerns regarding too much swing and miss. However he just can't stay healthy. He feels like someone who will immediately bounce back to the top or begin a gradual slide down the prospect ladder. Khadim Diaw Diaw's at bats have been eye opening. He has done very very well and continues to play at the defensive valuable Catcher position. Like Rodriguez, remaining healthy is one of the primary concerns. He had a major injury in college I believe and multiple stints on the IL in his short MILB career. Gabriel Gonzalez Gonzalez hit tool seems to very from year to year. I had him on a similar level to Mendez but it just hasn't been quite as good. It appears he maybe turning a corner. Along with Mendez and Rodriguez - I see these 3 as the most likely to get called up for a cup of coffee as all 3 are currently on the 40 man. Brandon Winokur Winokur ceiling is of those at the top 4. When he is hot he carries one of the best bats power/contact in the entire system. With the long limbs - maintaining consistency has been his biggest issue. He has had a nice start up at AA and if it continues he will likely end up back in the top 10. Charlee Soto I have consistently had Soto and Hill as the most likely pitchers to be true #1's in the system. Hill has now been traded and Soto has struggled to remain healthy. I still expect things to click and evidenced by Priellip and Quick - real talent can always rise to the top quickly. Carson Tinney For someone outside the top 10 I think I have a man crush on Tinney. I do think he is having an adjustment period to the wood bat but other than a high strikeout rate in SSS he is still having extremely professional at bats. Personally I think the defense is better than most give him credit for and even if the hit tool isn't great the power will be more than enough production as a secondary catcher. I think all 4 top catchers in the system MLB catchers so we will see how things shake out. Ethan Wachsmann He is young, he is talented but like the 3 high school arms taken before in the 2020's its a crapshoot to make it to the big leagues. Yasser Mercedes He had an elite start of the season at Fort Myers. After the call up things haven't been quite as smooth but I still expect good things from Mercedes. Ryan Gallagher All he has done in the minors in a short period is be available and pitch well. He doesn't have the elite stuff, but as evidenced by the KC royals and Ober you don't need elite stuff to succeed at the MLB level. He should get a shot in 2027. Brett Renfrow He will likely be a very similar type pitcher to Gallagher. it will be interesting to see if the Twins can find some extra velocity. Being he hasn't pitched a pitch yet this seems right. James Ellwanger He was injured early, but his stuff looked elite. For him it will come down to command and getting healthy again. Luis Fragoza I had Fragoza higher that Reyes prior to the trade. He is a year older but has actually had a great year in A ball. International prospects have routinely flamed out as they have risen through the system so Fragoza actually performing is pretty impressive. Jason Reitz This was a toss up. Reitz, Barr, Lapour, or Burns. The other 3 weren't available as options so I went with Reitz. He's 6'11 - rail thin but has had really good control which was always his primary concern. He has a 2.6 ERA at fort Myers. This was fun. My list may have changed if Barr, Lapour and Burns were avialable. It will be interesting to see how everyone else ranks the prospects.

The Twins had a hard fought series with the Brewers, but lost the final game and series in extras on Sunday. Even though going 3-6, The Twins still remain with pretty close to the same odds of the playoffs as a week ago. Playoff chances - 28% Draft Lotter 1st pick - 1.25% Top 6 - 12.5%

After yesterdays loss the Twins odds for the playoffs and lottery chances remained the same.

He’s a very good athlete. He was expected to have an above average arm, but so far this year he has only thrown out 11% of base stealers. I’m not sure on his framing. I think he will be the depth catcher option in AAA next year behind Caratini and Jackson.

Good day across the minors, good pitching and good hitting. Schlovin HBP counter - 5 (21 plate appearances, 3 hits 2 BB).

Adam’s and Funderburk ate up 2 big innings there.

That was their reply which was quickly rejected and they walked away.

We were all just very Neto 😂

Larnach becomes the DH for next year.

Twins with offensive breakout, a rookie hitting a home run in his first game and the bullpen closing it out against one of the best teams in baseball. This team hits velocity better than soft tossers, good thing we face a lot of good teams down the stretch. Record 58-59 Playoff chances - Jumped to 35% 👀. Baseball reference is different but has jumped from 11% to 22%. Lottery odds still 14th best. 1st pick 1% Top 6. 9%

Claim process already done would need to sign.

Culpepper defense will be above average. Just shuffled 1 step too many. Kreidler has provided elite defense with the bat. If Lewis makes the play at 2nd I don’t think it’s as noticeable.

Any update on Buxton?

I said before you need 4 hitters to get hot. 1. Lewis is turning a corner fast with the bat. 2. Bell has been known to get hot the 2nd half of the season. A long with Jeffers that’s a decent 3. Culpepper looks solid. What a star for the kid. The bullpen is starting to look legit.

I think there is 5-6 of us on here,

Similar to some of the pitchers we claimed has struggled early but performed better lately. Seems like we could use another pitcher that can throw innings. Would just cost a little money. $7 million total contract with bonus incentives. The articles seem to think no one will pick him up because the bonus structure. So far we have shown a propensity to spend money. What’s another $3 million ish LOL.

Where is that?

If they hang in the playoff race they will. I imagine with Culpepper up a few more will come and if they call up Jenkins and they perform I would not be surprised at some sellouts. Just what Tom wanted.

I think it’s pretty clear there was major dissent in the locker room. I have stated my belief as to why, but ultimately Rocco lost the clubhouse and this year Shelton has been a refreshing change of pace. We needed a reset.

LOL no. I am a C.P.A. Aka bean counter.