Hawkeye Bean Counter

Almost completely agree with your take. I do think he can play in the outfield with his elite arm even with a bit of poor foot speed. As to his bat and prospectus as a player, a top 150 ranking is about right. He has the ability to be one of the top hitters . . . if and its a bit if . . . he can develop more plate discipline. He crushes anything in the zone. He can crush somethings out of the zone similar to Vlad Guerrero, but he also has lots of weak contact to add in. Its a great project for AA. I think he will be much more developed and with more training will show much better than he did in last years cup of tea. Now the question is can he be elite like he was in A ball? That is the question.

Its a bad take. Also after a full season of these kids playing and another draft, I am firmly of the opinion that this will be a top 10 possibly top 5 Farm by the end of the year but I am assuming Lee is still not a full time member of the MLB yet and still a prospect.

I agree with this philosphy for the pitching side I am going to be really following highest ceiling pitchers this year. Canterino, Raya, Priellip, Soto - then the next tier of Festa, Lewis and the rest of the 2022 and 2023 draft picks. I know the depth is really starting to show up on the pitching side, but I want to see a true #1 or #2 develop out of these options and I think there is a pretty good chance it happens even if its 1 to 2 or even 3 years out.

Well we have added Ryan Jensen to AAA who still has an option. Will see what happens to Balazovic, Duarte and Thompson, see if they get claimed or not. It looks like teams who can put teams on the 60 day in the next day or 2 are Dodgers and Padres, otherwise the rest of the teams rosters seem fairly filled out right now.

Does anyone have any update on Desclafani and his elbow. I have read where they expect him to be healthy, however that doesn't quite jive with what has occurred. So Desclafani, was struggling they found the grade 1 flexor strain and shut him down, after 2-3 weeks or a month can heal on its own. They checked him again in July, it had not healed. They then gave him a prp injection, which if works should be healed in 8-12 weeks, He was expected to be cleared at the end of Sept. early October and said it in an interview. However, at the trade we received an update he has still not been cleared. DeSclafani was limited to 19 starts in 2023 due to a right flexor strain, and while the hope is that he'll be ready for Opening Day, he's yet to get the all clear. Once healthy, he'll compete with Chris Paddack and Louie Varland for one of the final two spots in MInnesota's rotation. So he has gone now almost 7-8 months and it still hasn't healed on its own, even with the PRP injections. Am I missing something here? To me looks like a Tommy John candidate unless he is close to getting full bill of health they are just waiting a little longer to ensure strength. Does anyone have any input on this?

Dodgers are the first team to hit their 60 days as their spring training starts tomorrow. Then the following day the Padres do as they prepare to play their first game overseas. Otherwise the rest of the teams 60 days can be done in about a week. Looks like a rolling time frame, not a set in stone. Dodgers I don't think will mess around with the options, Padres could not sure. But would likely only have room for 1.

Yes I guess there is a slight difference that we are initially putting them out to be claimed (after we had claimed them). Duarte, Weiss, Thompson, and Jensen and Bubba all have options left. Balazovic does not. As Chpettit posted in another post, a lot of these players are rated similarly. The Twins are trying to collect as many as possible to outright to AAA. If they get picked by another team, its part of the business and we have already passed Jensen through. Bubba is an interesting player and I continue to say is very similar to Willi Castro. I do hope he is able to pass through. He has had good numbers in AAA and has immense speed that could be a problem on the base paths similar to Castro. Castro was surprise last year. Most people hated or dismissed his signing. Every once in a while one of these AAA signings or players placed through waivers flashes, or figures something out. To put them all in similar bucket like Chpettit has said as well, is not a crazy strategy that the Twins are utilizing.

I am saying minor league players can have affect on the big leagues. Willi was signed to a minor league deal last year. We are trying to pass these players through waivers likely to play in AAA. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/twins-sign-willi-castro-to-minor-league-deal.html

Not great, but Royals are having to market a better team for getting the new stadium. We are having RSN issues. Yes it is not great, but its the world we are living in. Cleveland has done much less than us and have talked about trading their closer that they have under control for 5 more years - they are also dealing with the RSN issues.

So likely an issue with trying to squeeze the other 2 into AAA good to know.

Well Twins found a Nickel and were able to hide it. The next 2 have a higher shot of helping the ball team in Duarte and Thompson. We will see if those 2 will make it through as well. Right now it feels like rosters are pretty full and the Twins are towards the bottom of the picks, so most likely we will be able to get through them as well. As stated before most likely nothing but every once in while one of these types of players flash. Duarte and Thompson seem close, similar to a Willi Castro last year.

This blog is odd. What I learned is Gast has a major affinity for Polanco, and anything in return was not going to meet his expectations. Healthy or not what did we lose. 1 and maybe 2 years of Polanco. There is not enough bats at 3rd base (where he struggled) 2nd or DH to get full value of a healthy Polanco with Julien here. Topa learned a new pitch in 2022. Had some effectiveness with it in 2022, then took off in 2023. He appear in 75 games, the third most appearances of any reliever (thanks mlb radio this morning 😀). No offense that is not a flash in the pan. He is another reliable arm to throw in the bullpen. That has value. Gonzalez . . . wow . . . just wow. Ok lets be real, he is not a top 100 prospect but he is a top 150. He has the best bat to ball skills of any player in A ball last year, best BA last year in A ball. If you have tweak something, Strike zone and identifying pitches is much easier than learning how to hit a ball. For loving a player like Polanco, Gonzalez has the potential to be a similar type player if not a better version. Is he perfect no - but you got him for 1 year of Polanco. His arm is strong, and he tailed off in high A. I anticipate a strong year in high A for him. Getting another strong outfield prospect does help the minors, but also our depth. We now have 4 highly rated OF prospects, with several others underneath them. Darren Bowen has an a very good fastball and slider right now. Effectively the Twins can try to have him learn a 3rd pitch and remain a starter, or fast track him on the reliever side. Desclafani - as of right now I am expecting nothing. He was a negative asset in the trade. If he pitches we will be getting value, but he still hasn't been cleared. No offense, but even in 2 months he won't have enough time to build up to be a starter. I like what he can do (when healthy), and maybe he gives us another arm in May or June for the summer stretch where inevitably someone will get injured. I had high hopes at first after reading and article he would be starting his offseason program after the season, but that has quickly soured after further updates. They stat he will be cleared soon, so we will see.

All I know is he was over a 4 WAR player . . . in just the second half. Had a negative war the first half. He had a .260 average over the entire year and was a 2.9 War. If he is a .275 BA he is likely a 4-5 WAR. If he hits .300 like he did the 2nd half of the season he is an 8 WAR player. An 8 war player is not accepting a qualifying offer. A 5 war player is not accepting a qualifying offer.

If he hits .275 average or better his stats and WAR will be off the charts. That is a top 15 outfielder with his defense and power. 4-5 years at between in the $80 to $100 million range is likely what he would get.

I would really say depends on what the TV situation and salary situation in the future is. However, a $15 million to $20 million player would be tough to keep on the team in my opinion with the other contracts. I am still hoping for a qualifying offer situation that he turns down similar to Gray this year. Those extra picks at the end of the 1st round begin to stack up especially with the competitive balance picks.

Excellent job, wish more people have seen this. I would like to know more about Desclafani's health. Still stating they expect him to be healthy, but that it sounds like he has not been cleared to pitch yet. Curious of what the expected time frame is and whether he will have enough time to ramp up to starter level innings.

Canterino, is your arm in the minors that could flash if healthy. I would say the odds are slim. He seemed to gel well with Paddack. I think Varland is a better reliever than starting pitcher, but right now we need him to fill in the depth role for the starters and compete with Desclafani.

There is no one else we have to replace him with. Polanco was a focus because you already have Julien and then Farmer as your utility. There just isn't another outfielder that you can guarantee an effective above average player in right field. Add in he may have figured things out. If so, a team trading for him, would have to trade for that version. If he performs similarly to that 2nd half, you also have the option at a qualifying offer after this season. Its a possibility and a question and will not go much more into it as I have hashed that fairly well. The trade threshold is extremely high on Kepler, and honestly it is apparent they plan to keep him for this season and I think that is the right decision.

Ok first off we have find the hardest thing in baseball to find - an Ace and we have that in Pablo. 2ndly, we have Joe Ryan how is he that much different that a Kelly or Pfaadt? FYI Pfaadt had a negative war last year. Ober had a 3 War just a step below Kelly. Honestly Lopez, Ryan and Ober actually match up with Merrill Kelly and Pfaadt. Ive said it in other thread though, Paddack has the highest upside. Paddack has the potential to be your #2 pitcher in the playoffs. The stuff he showed in the playoffs was off the charts. Now does he have the same effectiveness in a starters role. I am very much beginning to rethink Desclafani. I thought he was cleared to pitch, but he may not even be cleared to pitch and if not, that is not a good sign. They are stating they want him to be in the rotation, but will have to wait and see. He was a negative asset in the trade and effectively treated as such. Likely got more prospect return for taking on the remainder of his 4 million salary. It really comes down to can he pitch or is the elbow shot. If healthy, I actually think he can be a decent #3 or #4 this year, maybe higher if we can unlock something with him. So a slight shot at a #2 pitcher like he was with the Giants in 2021. If Minnesota doesn't view him as healthy, then we have another move coming. Beyond that we have the prospect capital to find a #2 at the trade deadline as the minors are actually starting to get a tad clogged.

If you want a big deal Twins - Luzardo, Arraez Marlins - Julien, Ryan, Gonzalez Maybe need a throw in on top. Marlins gain and extra year of control on Ryan, 4 on Julien, and get a solid prospect. Twins get another ace or high end #2. Arraez pairs up much better with Lee. Can keep Lee down this year. Have as utility to get feet wet, then take over second base.

Maybe a little bit, but you have 6 arms for 5 spots, plus prospects below. Its clear we don't have the money to address any problems this year so you have to take a chance. Desclafani is the ? mark. However I thought he was cleared to play at the end of the season. Is he still not cleared to pitch as the article states?

LOL, yeah I took a 6 year stretch since the management change, I am really cherry picking data. Besides if you are going to take the outliers out, wouldn't you take the best and worst records out, not cherry pick out the best year? Then you have to look at what has the team had, in my opinion they have continually tried to cobble a decent team together. I could argue last years and this years teams, may actually be better team constructions than the 2019 team. You had a lot of players catch lightning in a bottle that year. We have almost completely traded away the 2021 draft to supplement the big league team. For me that is ok, I understand the reasoning, however even with doing that they have continued to improve the product and the high end talent on the farm. We have the top end players but then lets look at our number 20 to 30 prospects. 20. Austin Martin - has shown flashes likely mlb outfielder question how good 23. Noah Miller - best defensive shortstop in the minors, started showing flashes with the bat if that improves becomes a prime candidate for the big league team. 24. Zebby Matthews - some thought was one of the best pitchers out of the 2022 draft 27. Darren Bowen - high velocity, 2 effective pitches 28. Yunior Severino - mashed at AAA 29. Noah Cardenas - .780 OPS in high A as a C 30 Andrew Morris - sub 3 era across A and A+ ball In the past those were our prospects in the bottom 10 or in the teens. We are easily going 40 prospects deep anymore that have a legitimate shot at the big leagues, and some pretty high ceilings. We also haven't really seen any of the prospects from last years draft. I am willing to bet at least 4 pitchers draft after the 4th round end up in our top 30 prospects next year. There was just too much quality prospects picked to not have some excel especially with our coaches in A ball.

First off, Paddack has the highest upside of the starters outside of Lopez. The velocity and stuff he showed in the playoffs was great. He has also had 2-3 years to buy into the Twins philosophy. How many innings he can go who knows, but I don't see a big reason to hold him back if he starts hitting 150 innings unless he begins to tire. Desclafani, when healthy has decent stuff. Last year at the beginning of the season he was throwing 93-94 and topping out at 95. The stuff started to slide as the season wore on and fell off a cliff. There is a pretty good red flag on the elbow with the prp injections, which is part of the reason we got him so cheap. However it appears he healed and has been doing his offseason program. I do think the Twins can help him become a more effective pitcher. Also at the start of the season and 2021, he has been very effective when healthy. The "when healthy" is a misnomer. His injury history looks similar to Buxton's. Originally I thought he was a high probability to be an effective 2 or 3 starter if the elbow is healthy. Right now I am hoping he can pitch 2/3rds to 3/4ers of the season. maybe #3 to #4 type stuff, which is pretty effective for what is a $4 million dollar pitcher that appeared to be a throw in to get him off the books. Right now we have 6 pitchers to get through the season with, with 2 health question marks in Desclafani and Paddack. Now one thing to mention. His ankle was an issue that has caused him issues. However he has since had surgery, but on this I think we have to take it in stride and not be a continual issue. For most of his life, it turns out, Anthony DeSclafani was pitching without a groove for the peroneal tendon in his right ankle, his body somehow compensating for that genetic anomaly until late in the 2021 season.

Just curious have they or have they not put a competitive team on the field basically every year since 2017, record of 538-494. I would guess the front office hates the budget constraints as much as anyone. We will see, in a year with long term signed tv/streaming deal, what we look like on the budget side moving forward. However, saying the Twins haven't been competitive, or doing a very good side on the farm side, is extremely short sighted on your front.

Well, its a low wattage move. Good defensive first baseman that is the righty platoon split with Kiriloff. Will bring knowledge and leadership, and defensive value. Can fill in at first base with good defense. I am not expecting his numbers to jump. If we can get 1 to 2 war it will be worth it. It looks like a better signing than Gallo. It tells me we literally have no money to spend other than the $1 million ish filler signings. You use the money from the trade to sign Santana. If we want any more improvement for this team it will have to come from the trade side.