Hawkeye Bean Counter

Honestly France could become a midterm solution. Amick could become a longterm solution, as of today I think there is 1 player that is more likely right now, and that is McCusker. Yes they would have to work on 1st base technique, but 1st base will likely be his long term home in a few years, while his bat can continue to mash.

We are 15-20 in early may. My guess is we are 5 games over .500 by the end of June, I doubt we will be selling then. This game is still about pitching and we will get enough hitting as some of our reinforcements begin to get healthy.

I had noticed that. Think he will jump up to AAA to see how well he is doing before they would bring him up to the big leagues, plus see if last year was just a small sample size or there has been some major improvement in his contact rates.

He has looked very good. He is the non sexy pick that will likely produce, most likely as a reliever. There is value in that. I definitely had recency bias of looking at primarily the last 2 drafts.

The young high end pitchers are looking very good. Priellip, Charlee Soto, Questad, Hill have had fantastic performances in the early going. Tanner Hall is still an enigma to me. He had 14 walks in 109 innings pitched in 2022 in college, and 33 in 2023. His calling card was control. This year he has 1.6 whip with 12 walks in 18 innings pitched. He had a very good game yesterday, but he needs to continue working on limiting the hits and walks. I am hoping he his turning the corner, but it is looking like he was a very good college pitcher and that may be his ceiling. Pasqualotto, Bragg and Bengard from 2023 are both looking extremely strong in reliever roles. AAA has been rough on pitching so far other than Matthews who has been exceptional, and Morris who has been very good, after that it falls off. Lewis has 9 era and Raya an 8 ERA (even worse, a 2.78 whip, woof). Hopefully as it gets warmer and they can break off some rust they will begin to look stronger as the season goes on. Doktorczyk, and Peschl from last years draft, have performed very well so far. Kisting, Jones, and Carpenter have been solid as well.

On Gamecase it says Correa fouled a ball off by his face? Why did he swing at that . . . and then he struck out. At least no double play.

Too bad the Twins didn't call him up a week or two early if he does. Currently he will not qualify for an extra draft pick.

If we sweep the White Sox we are 10-15. Being 5 games under .500 this early in the season is not a big deal. You just can't create too big of a hole and not be able to climb back out of. There are at minimum 3 big blown save opportunities, that would put us close to .500 or over .500 even with the offense not fully clicking. I still have a bet with my son that the Twins make the playoffs this year. We will see.

I think he has improved a ton, but I also think they were truly just working on continuing to develop his mechanics and pitch repertoire, and the stats weren't showing the progress he was making. They obviously had a lot of confidence moving him up to A ball this year. I think they definitely knew they had something this offseason and moved him up and so far he is performing at an exceptional level.

I was thinking the Twins have not only done pretty well the last 2 drafts, but it has been incredibly balanced. I started thinking this morning you could make a team that would be very competitive at High A if not AA by the end of the year as the pitchers get a little more seasoned. So I went down the rabbit hole and this is what I came up with. Outfielders - Winokur, Jenkins, Kendle 1st Amick, 2nd Keaschall, SS Culpepper, 3rd Debarge, C Diaw, DH Thomason Pitchers Soto, Hill, Questad You have several other pitchers some have struggled this year, some are decent returns. Doktorczyk, Jones, Bengard, Pasqualotto, Bragg have been solid to start the year. Langenberg has struggled to start the season but had a very good year last year. Dunn has been meh but usable. Lee has been atrocious. Tanner Hall is my biggest scratch my head pick so far, he was magnificent in college, excellent control, increase some velocity and the control has fallen off the cliff. The top end of SP is exceptional. Both Hill and Soto have MLB talent, just need to continue to put in the work. For me Questad is the biggest wow so far in the minor leagues. Other than a home run he has been virtually unhittable. The walks are a tad high, but with as much swing and miss as he has had, that pretty impressive. I do think you have enough arms you could field a competitive team, but those bats holy crap - that can not only play well now but have a ton of upside.

Right now Questad will be the biggest mover in the prospect standings. Not even in the top 50 prospects on this list. https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/minnesota-twins-top-50-prospects-2025/ So far he is looking dominant. Yes he gave up a home run, but he is getting a lot of swing and miss and efficiently getting through innings. I would say he jumps easily into the top 25 prospects and possibly top 20. We are starting to see some of the teams starting to get healthy. I fully expect all the minors to do very well this year. Pitching should be very good at each level.

The defense is improving, he was mediocre to poor for several seasons, then in 2024 had a significant upgrade in his defensive metrics and was a net positive on defense last year for the Vols. Amick has a ton of power the biggest question with him was whether his hit tool would be good enough and that he was slow (I think a 40 grade) . In the past he has had lots of swing and miss. The early returns are very very good on Amick so far. The swing and miss is down, in some aspects the power is actually down a bit this year as well. I will take this version though. Edit: Looks like Twins have been splitting Amick between 3rd and 1st so far this year. He does have 2 errors at 3rd. I remember last year there was 1 analyst who absolutely hated Amick. I tried to find the report, it was rather scathing - but so far no luck LOL. So far he is looking like a very solid pick.

This is a multi-layered issue. Here is the issues so far this season that you can put on Baldelli's shoulders. 1. The biggest one being Jax, continuing to run him out and having 3 blown saves. He hasn't looked right this year, what worked so well last year, just isn't this year. In my opinion should have been optioned down sooner or sent to the DL. 2. Batters as a whole getting off to slow starts. This is becoming a trend. Not in his control: 1. Signing Correa who consistently gets off to slow starts. 2. Having several injuries to key players. I do think this team will get better as some of the batters heal, and Griffin Jax either figures it out, moves to lower leveraged innings, or is optioned to figure it out. There is too much talent on this team to not be competitive, especially if we are going to get solid play at 1st base from our $1 million dollar man - Ty France.

"But there’s another name Twins fans should be watching closely, and he’s been flying under the radar far too long." He is our 9th rated prospect and ton of buzz last year.

Pretty ugly out there. I am taking the MSTR/Bitcoin stance. So far minimal losses. I am most worried that the world will sell dollars otherwise would just be in cash. I really can't handicap what the market will do tomorrow, possibly a reprieve. In either case, we have to assume profits will come down, inflation up, and unemployment rising. We are down a lot, but I still feel like we have the potential for more downside. No matter what happens I think bitcoin goes up, either from the Fed increasing liquidity, the dollar declining, or a V shaped recovering. Best strategy I can come up with right now with a potential high payoff if bitcoin spikes. Edit: Then I realize its sold of quite a bit today. LOL. Still long term likely the place I want to be.

Bengard had an ERA of 2 last year, and in 23 innings of A+ ball was 1.5. This is not a guy to sleep on. He didn't strike out a ton last year, but he only walked 14 batters in 80 innings pitched. Yes if he can get a little more swing and miss, it may increase his chances, but for now, the kid can straight up pitch. At the higher levels we will see if they can hit him more consistently and harder.

So what has this spring taught us with France, its that he is seeing the ball and has confidence again. That bodes well for this year, and yes I would lean towards his numbers replicating closer to 2022 numbers than say 2024. He has been pretty transparent in his journey and approach. He had a a heck of a couple years, then he struggled a bit in 2023 and rather than try to go back to what made him successful, he went to driveline and tried to recreate the wheel. Now his April and May numbers were actually pretty solid, then he got injured and everything fell off a cliff. This year he went back to Tony Gwynns approach to a simple approach of see ball, hit ball. Don't worry about getting the perfect launch angle, don't try to reach for homers, hit the ball often and damn hard. So far that is a success. Yes its limiting Miranda a bit, but it also gives Miranda another year to grow into the position and we can see what he can do in a platoon and 1st and DH role. I had said when he signed him there was definitely some upside to the signing and so far it looks like a heck of a steal, but spring training numbers are notorious for being meaningless, so we will keep watching and see how the early months go.

Spring training is to be taken with a grain of salt, but Bader and France are hitting the cover off the ball. Buxton has been above average, and Correa . . . doesn't have a hit yet. Correa has been starting off slow the last couple of years and currently it is looking like it may be a similar set up. Cautiously it looks like Bader and Frances approaches appear to be in a pretty good spot and may have some outperformance years if they can stay healthy. I use spring training primarily to judge confidence and how comfortable they feel and right now Bader and France look like 2 of our best hitters in spring training.

Being from Iowa and following the Iowa program, I have been high on Langenberg for a while. His stuff is solid. As I have mentioned before specifically in the discussions about Brecht in the 2024 draft, is Iowa got a new Pitching coach, and lets just say he was not very good at his job. He was recently let go. Langenberg has above average to solid stuff. The upside won't be some of the other pitchers we have, but as shown above, with his stuff he has availability and is willing and able to go longer in pitch counts. Even at the mlb level, solid pitchers that can eat innings is a valuable commodity. In his second full year, I expect another solid jump in his performance. Velocity will continue to improve, and he will continue to control the zone well. I think those early starts last year he was trying to implement some new things and it took a while to click. The issue I am seeing is will there be a spot for Langenberg on the big league team. As discussed above, we have a ton of depth on the pitching side right now in the minor leagues.

97 mph fastball, with some decent secondary pitches. A lot more spring training to go, but he looks usable in an extremely SSS.

Other interesting stat, was France going 1 for 2 with a double, and I think another well hit ball down the line that was caught. Everything I have heard is France is slow as molasses, so the fact he got a hit and secondly got a double, is something that I take as interesting. If he can hit more of those doubles and make more contact, it makes 2021 to 2022 stat lines more feasible.

So getting the impression we are back to square 1?

The twins have made some high selections on some talented pitchers in the top 2 rounds of the draft the last 3 years. I have always said we have been having decent luck at producing pitchers the last couple of years, but we need someone who can develop into that #1 type pitcher. There have been some very good developments at the end of the season and in spring training. 2022 - Priellip - obviously has been on the shelf more than not but came back strong at the end of the season last year. In his last 9 innings (3 games) he fanned 15 batters in high A. In bullpen sessions he has been hitting 98 mph. He puts a ton of spin on the slider, and ultimately that is the pitch that is going to be make or break to his success, can the elbow remain healthy while continuing to put so much rpm onto that pitch. If so the stuff is definitely good enough to be a #1 or #2 type pitcher. 2023 - Soto - began pitching as a junior in high school. Twins were aggressive putting him in A ball, but he really started to assert himself towards the end of the season. He has hit 100 mph on his fastball in bullpen sessions. He still needs some work on his secondary pitches, and definitely still some development on control, but the sky is the limit for this kid. #1 type pitcher still on the table, but much more projection than someone like Priellip. 2024 - Hill - another lefty like Priellip and another high school pick like Soto. In bullpen sessions averaged 97 mph yesterday. Huge improvement. He was more developed that Soto as a pitcher, but still has some work. We have 3 pitchers with extremely high upside. I am impressed by the progress they have made and can't wait to see what they accomplish this season.

So Ishbia's were the primary option, White Sox got scared and gave him more ownership, is that effectively what occurred here?

He hit 98 mph on the fastball just the other day, and his slider still has the crazy spin that is having horizontal and vertical drop, with a wicked change-up. that is 3 pitches all coming from the exact same arm slot causing major tunnel issues for a hitter. 15 strikeouts in 9 innings pitched would tell you high A ball or not is crazy. If he can maintain his stuff, as he goes longer outings and remain healthy, that upside is absolutely still a #1 type pitcher. That is what he did AFTER the injuries. What you worry about injuries is that it saps the velocity or movement or the major risk here is that he will continue to have injuries. My viewpoint is it was 1 big injury, yes there is some future risk of injury, but that up to this point it doesn't seem affect his velocity and thus his upside. Maybe in your view it does. However, like Ragans who had significant time off for injuries and inconsistency at that MLB level, that caused him to traded from Texas to Kansas City in the Chapman trade, it doesn't negate the ultimate talent there. The talent just has to be healthy enough to stay on the field and execute. .