Hawkeye Bean Counter

Just saw this. The 2022 class of pitchers is doing very well.

Lewis right now, his stuff likely plays well in AA or AAA, possibly even mlb as a fringe player. He will continue to need to work on his craft. If he can find another 1-2 mph on the fastball with improved mechanics, and continues to develop his 5 pitches or refines down to 4, he will likely have a very long career. Look at that list and how littered it is with 2019, 2021, and 2022 late round pitchers. These guys just are not filler. They have legit stuff and legit chances and possibly making it up to the big leagues. Thats what makes the 2023 draft so interesting. The quality of pitchers selected is a step above any of the prior years. I don't know if there is even a competitive year to compare it too. HS Pitchers - Soto and Questad Elite College pitcher with slow fastball - Hall College pitchers bigger programs elite stuff average or poor performance- injury - Dunn, Pasqualatto, Lee College pitchers big programs above average stuff - good to average performance - Stoffal, Dougherty, Langenberg Small college pitchers - Santos, Hamilton, Bengard, Silvas, Bragg, Garcia The small college pitchers are equivalent to prior years. However, I cannot find a good comp to a Hall that we have picked in the last couple years. He stays healthy and adds some velocity and maintains command - he is a very good pitcher. I will ignore the HS pitchers - they have higher ceilings but at this point without seeing them it is just too hard to predict how they will do. I am optimistic. However the biggest change in previous drafts is 6 pitchers from good programs that generally at some point in college careers did very well and have very good to elite stuff. Performances for 2023 for this group was at best good to average to poor. However their quality and skill level appears to be better with higher ceilings than most of the pitchers we have picked in prior years. This is purely odds and statistics, however I see no less than 2 mlb pitchers out of this class and possibly 3 or more. Its high, maybe slightly optimistic, but due to the quality and the Twins ability to improve pitchers I am fairly confident in this group. With the hitters - Jenkins, Winokur and Keaschall this class has the potential to be a game changer for the organization. I am looking forward to the playoffs, but I am will be ready for spring ball and new season of milb to see what we have in some of these players.

That would never happen. You get to the 7th or 8th and they would be jumping into the bullpen in a tight game.

nm

Jax is just struggling to throw strikes.

Now why would you intentional walk Jeffers to get to Polanco?

Gray only has a shot if Cole implodes in one of the next couple starts and Gray gets to 10 wins. Otherwise extreme longshot

Gibault played last season for Cleveland. Cano you have to give credit to Baltimore for recognizing to change the arm slot. Coulombe was a mistake on Twins end. Picked the wrong player, the one with higher upside and it didn't work out.

Lewis Wallner Jeffers and Julien are all over .800. Kepler is close. It does look like replacement level is between .700 and .800. Also you have to exclude WAR from the defensive side. But yes it would be great if we had a few more hitters above .800.

Besides a strong 16 game performance in sept. His July and august had an average OPS of .700 over 215 at bats. An .800 OPS is basically replacement level I believe. The only thing you could say is he bottomed out in July and is beginning to figure it out again in Sept. A 2.8 WAR is still a really good season, However its a similar situation to Arraez where his performance was elite through June and then he has fallen off a cliff like he has for the last 3 years as the season as wore on. April/March 25 24 104 91 12 23 6 1 2 9 1 1 10 24 .253 .337 .407 .743 37 1 2 0 1 0 1 .318 85 106 May 27 27 121 110 18 35 8 1 6 19 0 1 10 22 .318 .372 .573 .945 63 2 0 0 1 0 0 .349 131 155 June 27 26 112 89 12 24 5 0 5 20 8 0 18 18 .270 .411 .494 .905 44 1 4 0 1 0 0 .284 125 149 July 24 24 99 90 9 21 1 0 2 10 0 0 8 23 .233 .303 .311 .614 28 2 1 0 0 0 1 .292 54 69 August 27 26 116 102 10 26 11 0 3 14 3 0 11 25 .255 .336 .451 .787 46 1 2 0 1 0 0 .307 94 112 Sept/Oct 16 15 69 57 7 14 0 0 4 9 2 1 10 14 .246 .377 .456 .833 26 1 2 0 0 0 0 .256 107 125

Most of Steers WAR came in the first 2 months, with an OPS over .900. Since then ok. CES has been playing at a 0.1 WAR. Effectively replacement level. MLB pitchers are more effective at striking him out and limiting HR. I expect that to change next year. Of the two bats, he has a better one in my opinion, just such a large jump this year. Impressive what he did, but they fed him to the wolves trying to stay competitive.

They have actually been playing pretty good ball the last 6 weeks or so since Buxton and Gallo were injured or playing less. Better bats up and down the lineup.

2022 class appears to be very good. Getting Lee was a gift. If I were to stack these drafts on how I expect them to turn out I would currently have ranked 2023, 2019, 2022, 2021. Yes we traded away 2021 but I am ok with that. 2022 with Lee immediately jumps that draft class up. The number of hits in 2019 with still missing on Cavaco and Canterino so far is just crazy. 2022 can pass that 2019 class but you need close to all star numbers from Lee or some more players coming up to join him. Doc you have kept tabs on the minors for several years. Do you have confidence that the A and A+ coaching staff can develop the current draft class. You have to admit their talent and coming from higher level programs is much better than previous years. Yes its still inconclusive, but unless something falls apart I don't see how at least 2-3 don't develop to be top 20 prospects.

Alright lets get this topic back on track. The 2023 Twins draft. I have said this draft has the potential to be a franchise altering draft. Slightly hyperbole maybe, but it had the the talent to achieve that. They drafted and signed 4 bats. There is still a possibility they sign Parker this spring. I would say that is a 50/50 possibility, however all 4 bats are playing at a high level. Jenkins looks the part of what many said was a #1 draft pick. As of now, nothing has popped up regarding his hips (good sign). His power numbers will increase and as he continues to develop more muscle mass. If his contact rates and eye discipline continue to be good you have an elite player on your hands. Winokur in the third was a massive swing (high bonus as well). As of now it has paid off. Had Jenkins had his numbers people in Twinkies land would have been pretty happy. I really wanted him to move up with Jenkins but acknowledge you ended the season with a good note and continue to develop his skills. You have the ability at another high end talent. Keaschall and Harry are both contacts hitters that looked destined to make it AAA and will then see if they can make it to the big leagues. Harry is all effort and probably doesn't have quite the raw skills Keaschall does. The Twins definitely seemed to have a more balanced approach of finding more contact hitters through out the drafts. As to the pitchers we haven't seen much. So is this article early. A tad, but honestly I don't even need to see them to know we are going to hit on several. Currently the A and A+ ball coaches have been off the charts. I would really like to see some articles on these guys, because what they are doing with pitchers is amazing. Increasing velocity, redefining pitches, developing command. The talent coming in this year is basically double of what we have had in previous drafts. Soto has the ability to be a high end pitcher. He has a slightly better build but seems very similar to Chase Petty. You also added another high school pitcher in Questad. I know very little on Quested. Seems to be a lottery pick to me, high ceiling low floor in the 5th round. The college pitchers is where they will make their bread and butter. Hall is an elite pitcher already. I assume the Twins will add velocity and unless he has injury I have very little doubt he will have lots of success. Santos was a signing bonus savings so not going to discuss much. Stoffal Dougherty Dunn Langenberg, Pasqualotto and Lee are all pitchers that have more talent and ability than what we usually get in rounds 8-13. Some are flame throwers, some were #1 pitchers in their system that struggle slightly last year, and some had injuries. I could hope all succeed but we know that isn't likely. If 2 of these develop its a great draft, if more than 2 develop we are back into my historic draft possibilities. That is ignoring the rest of the small school pitchers that we have had success in the past of developing. Santos, Bengard, Silvas, Bragg, and Garcia. This was a pitching heavy draft with some big swings on hitter early. If the hitters pan out, which this article is stating we are well on our way to eclipsing the 2019 draft and in the realm of best drafts ever. Yes it is early and we have seen prospects fizzle out. As long as Jenkins performs we will be happy with this draft, but I will be keeping a keen eye on those pitchers next year, and expect to be very happy with what I see.

I would argue Ozuna or the outfield spots, could possible take over Keplers.

No Lewis or Julien anywhere????

Alex this has been my point all along. What the front office and Baldelli has done is performed their jobs. In most years in the past most would have been pleased with the outcome. Yes there would still have been nitpicking. However, lately there has been a group of individuals that continue with the phrase - they are done with the Twins or baseball. I tried to make a joke of it the other day, because they will be right back here the next day. When those individuals are truly done and stop watching is when ownership will make a change. Ownership is dictating some of the moves by their recommendations on salary, so we do also have to take that into account. I look forward to the rest of the season and post season and hope they have a good run.

Eh you just seem to be someone who wants to argue. I said they were buyers and sellers- its obvious they sold but they didn't tank. It appears they thought they could get something out of Thor. Yes the waiver claims fell in their laps, but that means 16 other teams refused to pick them up . . . why? Because the Guardians continued to want to add players and to their roster while the others wanted to tank. (the definition of being a buyer - even if it didn't cost them anything but money on the waiver wire). By adding the players they are showing they were not ceding the division to the Twins. It didn't work out, just like the Twins trades last year didn't work out and their performance plummeted. So are you saying even a team that may add players - it may not improve their performance . . . really 😄. Kinda like the Twins are proving the front offices position to stand pat. LOL. I am done discussing this with you. We will never see eye to eye.

1. They picked up players at the deadline (Thor) 2. They picked up players on the waiver wire (lopez, Giolito, and Moore) At no point have they waived the white flag and tanked the remainder of the season . They tried to sell and re fill those holes. I might not agree with the strategy

He is signed through 2025 correct?

So does that mean you stop watching, following the Twins, and posting until a change is made 😄

I could easily say, why did we put Donnie Barrels in instead of Kiriloff, why did Julien not swing and cause there to be 2 outs, why did Kuechel give up 4 runs in 4 innings. There is always a ton of woulda shoulda coulda and arm chair quarterbacks. 5 innings of 1 run ball from the RP wasn't the primary issue today.

Don't think anyone has talked about it in 4hours LOL

In my opinion the Twins should have sold last year rather than bought, or do a buy and sell strategy similar to what Guardians did this year. How exactly is the bullpen spiraling. The bullpen has 2-3 blowups in the 2nd half that has bloated their ERA. Today 5 innings 1 run. They did their job, just not in crunch time.

yep and how many bullpen arms would you need to remove them all? Plus you did 5 innings of 1 run ball. Actually pretty good. The problem is you couldn't afford that 1 run.