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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is a sunk cost. I don't see him improving in the future. He made some progress and seems to be reverting back. As a first baseman there is minimal value. If someone is willing to give us some value I absolutely take it.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    They ended up exactly even with a Bouchard oversign by 35K. Lay only received 75K which is wrong on this site and a couple other sites.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It wouldn't be the worst case outcome. The Twins would still be eligible for the lottery as its currently structured and would likely still have a decent shot at another top 6 pick. I still see them being light buyers and they may do a bit of buying and selling. Hancock is the only player where the Twins may give up some decent prospects for and I would be extremely happy about it. Seattle and the Twins have done some good trades in the past so I think they would be willing to work with us. Beyond that lets just wait and see what happens the next week with the team and then see what they do at the deadline. We still only have a 25% shot at the playoff so this shouldn't be an all in scenario and standing pat would be fine as well. Jeffers can be offered the QO. Larnach is abritration eligible another year as well as Joe Ryan. Standing pat would be a perfectly acceptable option. Even still another reliever would be nice.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Hancock Brazoban and Arraez would be my targets. Reasonable value for all of them I personally would trade Lewis, then prospects to even it off. That shouldn't be anything that would drastically hurt the farm system. I personally think this team would be better with Arraez at 2nd and Clemens at 1st. Arraez would bring a lot more professional at bats to the team. He shouldn't be drastically expensive and Lewis is someone I don't just trust on the line or in the system anymore.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I was just going to say this. In the playoffs what we have lacked is professional hitters. Working counts getting hits when you need it. He will be reasonable to get and raises the floor on the entire team. It also removes some risk of Lewis reverts to previous form.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Nice wins across the system. I’m not sure what happened after the all star break, but the pitching at all the minor levels has improved. Getting people back to the correct levels is likely a key part. Tait is having a really good year. He also seems to be going on a bit of a heater now. .250 BA with .300+ OBP with his power and he is still a top 20 prospect.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Actually you could do the Sonny Gray trade every year. Sonny was on a very reasonable deal which is why we traded for him. $11 million and $12 million. Let’s just call it $15 to $20 million a year now So. For your top 2 arms a year you are paying $35 million. That is not constricting the team. Now you are absolutely losing upside. However actually salary isn’t the issue in this scenario.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I completely agree. Everyone in the pen is a spot or 2 higher than they should be. Right now Anderson is a borderline pen arm or #4/5 pitcher. Personally if he stays with the Twins I think Starting Pitcher is where he will land and they may even move him there before the end of the season. In either case he had a moment today and good for him. We have been operating with arm at the bottom of the pen who shouldn’t be in the MLB for the last year. So to actually have a borderline bottom of the pen arm is a massive upgrade to what we have been working with. Getting Sands back and in a position where he doesn’t feel he has to carry the load should really help him and the pen. You are 1 high leverage arm away from having a legit bullpen. Say what you will, miraculous, smoke and mirrors, or this is proof the fire sale of the bullpen was smart- this has worked out in this instance. Give Latroy Hawkins some major kudos as well. He is getting his boys ready, confident and helping get them into spots where they can be successful.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Volpe wow. He is Knoblauch with the yips. He literally can’t throw the ball to the baseman. 3rd, 2nd, 1st it doesn’t matter and this was for a players whose defense was hits strong suit. You can get him cheap and he absolutely has to leave New York. I think he is potentially redeemable. He would likely take Kreidler spot as the backup, absolutely zero overpay but it’s not an awful idea. it would be a similar situation to Bradley. Obviously there are some fundamental things to work on, but this is a confidence issue. He needs a new start and has been a 3 war player for multiple years. I pull the trigger.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The issue is the demand for catching is white hot right now. Seattle, Yankees, Rays are interested. Whit Sox need a catcher for the next 5-8 weeks but trading within the division will be costly. I think the value at the trade deadline will be more than a comp pick. M
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    With potentially 5 teams needing a catcher the Twins should be able to get surplus value in trading Jeffers. If a prospect needs to be added to get 3-4 years of a starting pitcher you do that deal every day. Starting pitching is still my biggest concern in the next competitive window.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I just like looking at the box score and seeing the twins pitched four relievers today with ERA 3 or lower. It’s amazing what can be done when we have some competent arms in the bullpen. Still some work to do but this game alone shows they are beginning to pull their weight.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    With Emma and Tait they are players that are immensely talented with risk profiles that will potentially limit them injuries for Emma and hit tool for both him and Tait. I am willing to trade both as we now have some talented outfielders and catchers in the system with less risk and similar upside we can capture the potential ceiling value while removing the risk it doesn’t pan out. I am still willing to trade high school arms for 2-3 years of #2 pitcher. I would do the Sonny Gray trade every year if we could pull that off.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I’m trying to piece together the trade calculator- Would anyone bat an eye if we traded a package based around Rojas to Toronto with a sweetener for Varland?
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We have Royals and A’s now to make up some ground.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is an option. Trading Jeffers for an MLB SS for the playoff run - from a position of strength for a position of weakness is smart. I would prefer we would go pitching. I know we will have some pitchers getting healthy, but the pitching at the upper levels of the minor leagues is depleted. We have a handful of players you can consider and thats it.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Today's win felt like a season definer. Right now Jeffers is the wildcard. They can trade him now. They can ride him out and let him go. Or they can offer him the Qualifying offer and see if he declines. You can get value from him through 2 of the options. I am willing to kick the Ryan discussion another 2 months and give this team a shot. As to the rest of the team, 1-2 relievers and maybe another starter is what we are looking for. Prospects I am willing to trade based on the value of the potential players. Tait Rodriguez, Hill, Gonazalez, Soto, Mendez, Young, Winokur, debarge, CJ Culpepper. ect and pretty much any prospect 20 or lower. I don't see a legit closer coming over. 7th to 8th inning reliever with upside - like a Varland from last year but likely cheaper. Red Sox are likely buyers - otherwise Sonny Gray would be a very interesting trade proposition. I would do that trade every day. Where it comes from I have no idea. Why Sands isn't back up with the team yet is baffling.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    By my math if he is 75k as what he thinks he is, The Twins break out to almost exactly even based on what we know.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/minnesota-twins/2026-mlb-draft-tracker-complete-results/ Schwerzler has him at $406k also. I still trust the MLB site more, it makes more sense the way the bonuses broke out.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Well according to the Twinsdaily Tracker they had him at $406,800. Thats likely the difference. They have just updated the signing amounts on the MLB site, they hadn't been there even as of this morning. https://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-draft-picks/2026/
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Right now the difference in the top prospects should be ceiling. Yes all players could be a hall of famer, but if you asked baseball executives and prospect analysts between Jenkins and Lackey who has the best chance to be a hall of famer, I think 90% say Lackey. Age withstanding which is giving Jenkins a lot of boost and a couple more years of potential stats to add up. Being an elite catcher defensively and offensively for 8-10 years will all but guarantee you to be in the hall of fame.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Well they proved you wrong Steve. They are over by 260k so far and counting. Really surprised at the following - Lay with full bonus even though technically a senior sign, Bayles only 45k less than the allotted, the following with 50k more so far Burns, Teel and Lane. Tom showing they are willing to invest in the team. Its a smart strategy. They also signed all 21 draftees, they may have gone over a bit more.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Last I checked Gomez pitched yesterday LOL. Heck of a win by the Twins. Bradley is becoming a stud. The bullpen is holding their own - still needs some help Tom. We will see what happens at the deadline. Do we buy, sell, a little bit of both?
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    By Sept they should have a pretty good idea of the leagues opinion on this. Merely moving players to the 40 man or up to the big leagues should satisfy the requirement. There may also be a gap year for it to go into play such as 2027 is still operating under the old rules. It would likely cause a lot of prospects to be called up during the year. My personal opinion is for prospects over age 27 the control should end by a year. So a player can be a free agent at age 32 no matter what.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Twins have overpaid by 260k and counting so far. Notable signing bonuses since last update. Burns with 300k bonus - 50 k more than allowed. Raab and Klecker were senior sign savings. We overpaid by 50k for the 11th round on for Teel and Lane. Its clear both of those were real targets by this organization. Honestly I like Turner the best of the 3 and he only got 150k but it shows all 3 are real prospects. It shows a real investment by the Twins.
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