Hawkeye Bean Counter

Doc, what this draft is telling you is a couple things, the Twins are placing a premium on character, and then looking to see if the player has the tools that match the character. All 3 picks so far this year, the character has been off the charts. The Twins said Keaschall was one of the most impressive people they interviewed. Hey I am good with that. If he performs as well as Schobel we will be happy.

Wide net to cast. If I were a betting man based on their previous mutual interest between the player and team, I could see Hurley. beyond that gets a bit more murky. If not another bat, would be college pitcher that they like of the ones remaining. Hunter Owen is 6'6", He has a fastball that could improve, slight health issues. Has SO/9 of 10.7, last year 12.8. Watts-Brown is 6'3" had an eye popping 13.6 SO/9. Had some control issues and needs to gain some speed on the fastball. Tanner Witt is 6'5", seems like someone you could get later in the draft. Really struggled after injury but has the arm talent. Mcgraw has elite arm talent but hasn't been able to stay healthy. As to the bats not sure who they would be focusing on.

You are looking at next years need vs where these prospects will be at which is low A, High A and AA. As to next year, the top of your rotation is headed by Lopez and Ryan, then Ober as a reliable #3. Then you will have Varland, Paddack who should be back, plus possibly 1-2 others who the Twins will sign in free agency. You will still have others such as Winder who could be a 5th starter. For future years, Raya, Festa, Priellipp (? regarding health) , SWR, Matthews, Lewis and even Culpepper give you enough arms that could potentially be starters. Then you can develop Soto and whoever else the Twins draft this year. This is also ignoring that we can offer a Qualifying offer to Gray. Either he takes it, assuming he doesn't fall apart the remainder of the season, or he gets signed and we receive a comp pick in next years draft. We have a legitimate shot at 3 picks in the first round which should again be a strong draft due to the residuals of Covid and the 2020 draft year.

If what happens with our 3rd pick happens and I have a sneaky suspicion we get Hurley, and this was just a swapping of picks because they really liked Keaschall, I think everyone will be very happy with this draft. We will have 4 very high rated prospects. Even if it is not Hurley the draft will be a success, it will just be filling in with prospects the Twins hope they can develop a few diamonds in the rough.

Where exactly are we short on pitching prospects? We pick just as many pitchers as batters its that we tend to pick them later, as the Twins have a fairly strong plan that has identified pitchers that can have additional success with better coaching. This has had good success in the last couple of years.

RJA I get exactly what you are saying. However your parameters are so restrictive it takes away of the overall strategy of what the Twins have done. The other is the depth of the Twins pitching staff and in the minors should make it less necessary for the Twins to make multiple trades for pitching in the future.

Heck of a first day for the draft. I expect to see 2-4 college hitters in the next several picks and then a slew of developmental pitchers based on past history. I am curious to see if the Twins cut a deal with Hurley, or someone else for there 3rd round pick, a la Blayne Enlow. May have been a situation where they flip flopped 2nd and 3rd picks because they thought they could get the other player later. Not sure will have to wait and see. Having 2 high upside picks in the first round will be fun to watch them develop. Now we are getting to where the Twins have excelled in the last couple of years. Find college bats early, and then pick lots and lots of arms. They have said this was a deep draft in the early rounds because of the 2020 pandemic almost combining 2 years together. I will be curious if the depth in the later rounds will carry through.

Its easier to get a league average Catcher than it is to get a #1 or #2 starting pitcher. Ultimately the ceiling of each greatly changes the value. If you only see Lowder as a #3/#4 I think you are drastically undercutting his potential.

The reasoning is we can flip hitters for pitching, which we flipped Arreaz. As to 1st round, who cares if its first round or not, they are going with the law of averages, and to have both Steer and CES used in a trade even if I disagreed with it, is a valid claim. I don't get excluding 1st rounders as a valid argument. Yes a couple of the 1st rounders haven't panned out, but a majority have big league talent, it is just needing to show their full potential on the field.

Are we just going to ignore Varland, Winder, Jax (selected by previous management, developed under their leadership) - Petty Hajjar and Povich who all performed well enough to be traded for good assets - Priellip is a bit of question mark although twins thnk farther along than they expected and then Matthews and Lewis are far outperforming. For the amount of capital invested in pitching in the draft, the Twins have far outperformed expectations under current managements leadership. I think the current concern is the current lack of contact by the current team. However yesterdays game, was more of an out of this world defense than anything. Easily could have had 2-3 more runs in a smaller ball park or with not elite defense in centerfield, the robbed hit of Buxton and what would have been a homer by Castro in 15 other parks.

I think it is quite strong to call Clark or Jenkins a generational talent. The only generational talents are Skenes and Crews. Both would have been the number 1 picks in the last 5-6 drafts. As to Langford, he is right up there just a tad behind. Likely a 1st round pick in many of the previous 6 years. Clark and Jenkins both don't seem like can't miss prospects. Clark, not enough power, Jenkins still has some holes in his swing. Give me a more polished hitter that shows can hit elite pitching or an elite pitcher. To me there are 3 elite prospects and likely only 2 that the Twins would consider at 5 which is disappointing. I do think Teel could be the Twins pick. Will just have to wait and see.

If it is true that Boras and Crews want nothing to do with Pittsburg that is exactly what the Twins need to happen in this draft. In stead of Clark falling to 10, a very real possibility Clark goes 1 at a discounted price. That drops the big 3 down to picks 2-4 and the Twins money can then come into play, along with the Texans being high on the high school players as well. That would allow either Skenes or Langford to fall to 5. That is the best case outcome for the Twins or something funky that would allow Crews to get to 5 which would be crazy town.

What does everyone think of Quinn Matthews - Currently ranked around 110 but could go higher after good performance in CWS, however has had extremely high pitch totals. Has high strike out rate, ok fastball 94 mph, improving control. If available in the 4th or if taken early in the third, would you do it. He would match up with Twins preference of tall and lanky pitcher add in he is a left hander :). These are the rounds where Twins typically pound hitting, however, this would be a solid pick that could also get some savings being a college senior. The throw in his 156 pitch count in his last game . . . will be curious to see where he goes.

Just for clarification, you changed the subject on my amazing comment. That is what I always intended it to infer. You also stated Gray isn't in your top 12 pitchers for the year. Myself, other publications, and some here think he is based higher. Yes its statistical analysis and what you value. Yes my anti-Twin, anti-Gray take is slight hyperbole, but you want to ignore ERA and WAR while magnifying SO, IP, and WHIP. You seem to want to devalue him against a high strike out pitcher like Cole, when he will never again be that type of pitcher. There is some discussion on how team philosophies effect stats, even still ultimately a pitcher is judged on how many runs do they allow across the plate and currently he has and ERA+ of 178. I wish you well, keep cheering on the Twins, and maybe think Gray is maybe in the top 8 discussion and deserving of an all-star appearance :).

This has more to do with the Twins depth than philosophy. Varland and Ober are racking up a lot more innings that most #4 and #5 pitchers.

Regarding my amazing comment is no one was expected this type of performance out of him at the beginning of the season, how he is doing is amazing. Considering we could get 2 years of service and another high draft pick for trading Chase Petty is an excellent outcome, sorry you don't like my optimism. "IMO, all these are having a better year so far them him - Eovaldi, Cole, Valdez, Bieber, Gausman, Berrios, McClanahan, Castillo, Ohtani, Ryan, Jon Gray, Rodriguez, so yes maybe if enough guys bow out he will get a spot. " Those are your words. As to the ranking that is where I came up with my statement. You are stating he is no where in the top 12 pitchers - your words not mine. Lets look at the Twins pitchers. Pablo Lopez is averaging an extra 2 outs an inning, Joe Ryan an extra out. To me this isn't a statistically big deal. In comparison to other Twins pitchers this is about the amount of innings Twins management will allow them to pitch. For the most part you are arguing about team philosophies. I am very happy with the way Gray has pitched. Of the starting pitchers you are considering he has given up the least amount of home runs, has one one of the lowest ERA, leads the league or tied for WAR for just pitching. If you want to give Gray away be my guest. He has had a hell of a season so far. Maybe he is due for some regression. I guess statistically showing that other publications have Gray 6th tends to lead credibility to my take. The fact you so vehemently want to attack it seems not only anti Twin but also anti Sonny Gray. I understand some of the points you are making, however its not like what other are thinking of Sonny Gray is just pie in the sky and dreams. I think we are both fairly steadfast in our positions, no need for me to continue this discussion after this post.

IP isn't a big deal over all. K/9 - Sonny Gray is more of a control pitcher than a strike out pitcher, the fact he is this high is good. Whip, may have something here - basically stating his ERA is outperforming his whip. ERA is fairly strong. He doesn't give up home runs which allows him to have a slightly higher whip to get out of innings and jams. He is pitching over 5 1/3 inning on average per a start. Again you appear to just be quibbling because the Twins tend to take their pitchers out early. If thats the case talk to management because that isn't changing with any pitcher that pitches for the Twins.

Are we really arguing if a player is 4th 5th or 6th this year ?? Whether a Twins fan thinks he is 4th or 5th, and a couple baseball rankings stating 6th that isn't a significant variability, could merely be preference. What Doctor is stating is he isn't even in the discussion of the top 8 pitchers this year, and I find that quite the disservice to Gray's performance so far this year.

Honestly I don't think the Twins could have drawn up a better outcome if this were to occur other than taking a short term discounted deal because he like the Twins. Gray will likely end up as a 7-8 WAR player over 2 season. They would get a comp pick at the end of the 1st round (effectively the pick they picked Chase Petty #26 to the low 30's). Otherwise Gray accepts the QO for around $20 million - which I don't see him doing, he will want to cash in after this season. The only way this trade doesn't work out is if Petty becomes a #1 pitcher or Gray gets injured or falls apart for the end of the year. If the Twins wish they could take another gamble on a high school pitcher, or other high end college pitcher.

WAR effectively takes everything into account. You put Gray on any other team with more run support than the Twins and he is likely pushing 11 to 12 wins. You put some of those other pitchers with the same run support Gray had and they likely have less than 7 wins. All starters have bad starts. Gray has been incredibly effective and even on the days he hasn't had his best stuff, he still battles til the end. I will gladly take the highest WAR pitcher (excluding Ohtani however only 1.9 is from pitching to Gray's 2.8) any day of the week and he absolutely deserves to be in the All Star discussion. I also take him hands down over Berrios, Ohtani (as a pitcher only) Gray. The fact that he is in discussion of the top 4-5 pitchers is amazing. Just for innings review - S. Gray 76, Berrios 85, Ohtani 82, Eovaldi 93, J Gray 73. Rodriguez 67, Cole 91. So only Cole and Eovaldi are significantly ahead on innings pitched. Lets not act like we are still only letting pitchers go 4 innings a game on regularity.

I am predicting our 3rd sweep of the year. Gallo, Correa and the rest of the bats go off. Gallo gets at least 2 HR's against a depleted tigers pitching squad for this series.

To me though there 3 elite picks. Crews, Langford, Skenes and the most likely scenario is those players effectively go chalk in the first 3 picks There is rumors and articles even on this site stating if Skenes is available or the high school bats the Twins would prefer to go a college bat route. Currently here is who most teams are tied to Pirates - Most likely Crews - possibility of under slot deal to Clark Nationals - Skenes seems most likely, and of the top 4 this is his most likely destination otherwise could drop. Have done a lot of evaluation on Jenkins Tigers - Tight lipped, but favor college bats. If Crews were to somehow fall, Tigers scoop him up, most likely Langford Rangers - appears to prefer the high school players. Currently most think Jenkins is rated higher than Clark Crews is likely gone by pick 3 in any scenario. Skenes is most likely picked at 2, if not could drop to 5. Langford is most likely Detroit, if something funky happened could fall to 5 and I believe this is the Twins ideal draft scenario. The high school kids ultimately could go anywhere. Maybe the Twins would pick one of the high school kids, but they have preferred the college route due to less risk (think Cavaco). The Twins do have the 4th most money, but for that to take place you are going to need 1 to 2 players do below market deals for the money to even come into play.

If we are let down by the first pick, possibility they can have a major overpay at 34. Jacob Gonzalez and then book ended with someone like Thomas White. Or draft noble Meyer at an under slot contract and pick up a very good bat at the end of 34. It would be getting cute, but I would be fine with that I suppose. Still hoping some how some way Langford drops to us at 5. That would open up the rest of the draft for the way the Twins like to draft.

Here is what I think is happening and what I expect to happen moving forward. I think towards the end of July to August they are going to begin to work Buxton back into the field. The last couple of seasons we went into the post season we didn't have Buxton because he broke down during the year. If you can manage him and only have him play 1-2 months or 2 1/2 months he should still be relatively fresh, not banged up and be back roaming Centerfield. Honestly I feel like as an organization and team they have been slow playing the season and they expect to turn it on in the back half with an easier schedule.

They will make the playoffs . . . why, because once they get through the end of June they essentially only play .500 clubs or below the rest of the season. You will be going against a bunch of teams that will be trading precious depth away and we should remain deep in the starting rotation. We have 6-7 capable starting arms for starting pitching. Below is the strength of schedule for the remainder of the year and we are ranked 30th meaning we have the easiest schedule of any other team meaning we have been extremely front loaded difficulty wise to start the year. http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php Now the real question is what about the bullpen and bats. Bullpen I think 1 more solid arm would drastically improve the team, which shouldn't be costly (which should allow us to drop pagan). As to the bats, they will improve, how much I don't know. Correa historically heats up in the summer and we are already starting to see that. He is at a War of 1.0. I fully expect him to at least get to 3.5 War or better by the end of the year. Lewis, shows he belongs, those 2 bats will bring consistency. Buxton, performs better when out in the field, sooner or later I expect the Twins to take the cuffs off. When . . I am not sure. He is still too much swing and miss. Gallo will love the end of the season because he excels against bad pitching and we will be facing a lot of it the rest of the season. Gallo is very much a complimentary piece and not a whole lot more. I am hoping by some chance he goes off and and someone pays him quite well at the end of the season and we get a comp pick for him. Then we need 1 or more of Larnach, Kiriloff or Miranda to become above average bats. I think the odds of that is actually very good, and if 2 become above average, then we will enjoy the rest of the season.