Hawkeye Bean Counter

All of the players expected to sign have sign except the last 2 players drafted 19th and 20th. We are allowed to follow and sign by the 2024 draft Parker, I doubt we can pull a rabbit out of our hat on Larson like we did with Julien in 2019 but weirder things have happened. I liked the bats in the draft but to me this draft is all about the pitching and the money paid shows the amount of interest the Twins have in the players and their expectations that they could be a quality arm for the organization. Of course Soto will receive the most money and he has the best shot at becoming a #1 pitcher in our organization since Berrios (excluding Petty, but I think Soto has an even higher ceiling). Twins gave 500k+ to Hall and Questad. Obviously to get a high school pitcher had to overpay a bit, but it also shows they have high expectations for both pitchers. Whether they perform is the questions. This is the meat of what I wanted to look at - the Twins picks from 8th round to the 17th round. They gave effectively all players from the 8th to the 13th $150,000 (other than Dougherty 160k). Then from the 14th to the 17th 100k. You then throw in Santos which was a senior sign which has typically done ok for the organization although no major wins yet with those type of pics yet for the organization. What does this mean . . .? You can tell from the articles and even from some of the posters which we appreciate the information on Pasqualotto from the new poster. All these pitchers were obviously in a similar tier shown by the money given, but also these pitchers had better quality stats and had pitched in better leagues than what the Twins have typical drafted from in the last couple of years. You have some pitchers that are already pitching in the mid 90's, they all have an elite secondary pitch, and you have some well rounded pitchers already. I would not be surprised at all if there is at least 4 quality MLB arms out of this draft. The quality and depth is just unheard of. Being an Iowa guy and following Langenberg, I know he has very good quality stuff and also seemed to pitch best against higher competition. Then Pasqualotto, Dunn, Dougherty, Stoffal Dunn and Lee, and even Hamilton the players all seem like quality guys and have the potential to really improve with the quality coaches in A and A+ ball. If you look at the pitchers even the ones who struggled a bit this year, they all had good outings against quality teams this year. The 2019 draft was a draft I followed due to the depth and quality of the picks. I felt the 2019 draft had the potential to be a game changer draft, and if the top of the draft had panned out it would have been. I feel this draft is even better than that draft, and I think anyone would take Jenkins over Cavaco - but there is still risks with #1 high school picks. We will see in a few years how the results fair. I am expecting an influx of talent next year to A and A+ ball for pitchers which will be welcomed. I could go on and on, I have really appreciated the individual articles on each of the players, great job. Lets go Twins and hopefully we see some of these players doing well in the minors later this year and next year and the Twins making a push to the playoffs.

I am sure they agreed to an amount, but even so you read the article it says he appreciates the coaches and college but going to mlb was always his goal. Pretty clear he is signing.

The bats are not good enough, this has been a concern for the last couple of years. I think some of it is approach, some of it is players that have too big of holes in their swings. I think Correa turns it around, he already is, and ultimately ends at a 3+ WAR or higher player. Buxton needs to start playing in the field period - I also think he hits better when fully in the game and playing. If so he will improve just from the defensive side. If Buxton and and Correa improve that fixes a lot, but you need 1-2 more. I will pick Julien and drum roll . . . Miranda. Miranda is know to go on streaks and slumps. I am hoping he can just relax over this break and then the bat comes to life. Similar to the Braves of couple years ago, all you need is the bats to get hot at the right time and I think you have enough quality bats they could. As to relief pitching, I think you would need at least 1 more solid reliever to make a go of it. Beyond that what do I hope for? I hope Gray continues his dominance and 1 of Maeda or Gallo start tearing it up. I appreciate that the Twins and management have started to give us some decent baseball to great baseball to watch the last 3-4 years with a few putrid stretches. They have done this starting with a poor farm system other than at the top (Sano and Buxton) and not much at the big league level. However, you need elite players to make a go at the World Series and if Gray Maeda and Gallo take off the rest of the year, you have Gray for sure that you could give a qualifying offer and he would turn down and get a very good contract. You get Maeda or Gallo to do the same and someone gives them a good to great contract over 50 mil for 3 years, and the Twins could have 4 Picks in the first round (1st round pick, competitive balance, and 2 compensation picks). You do have the risk of Maeda accepting. Being a bit of a draft junky I am more than fine with continuing to increase assets and improve the long term success of the organization. Overall I want to watch better baseball, and more hits. Go Twins.

https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/baseball/2023/07/11/minnesota-twins-select-iowa-baseball-ty-langenberg-in-11th-round-of-mlb-draft-hawkeyes/70397411007/

Doc, I agree with everything you said. An even though I said even I still rank Lee ahead of Jenkins in a ranking. Priellip is so difficult, all the arm talent in the world, but hasn't been able to throw for essentially 3 years. I hope they are babying him, I really do, the worry is he need another tommy John and gone for the next 2 years. Yes that would suck. You make that pick every day though. The drafts really matched up except they sprinkled in more high school players at the top. The difference was the quality of arms from rounds 8-15. The Twins got to #1 starters of players at major colleges with good programs in the 11th and 12th round. Langenberg and Pasqualotto are amazing picks, good stuff and know how to pitch. Can they improve them enough to make them legitimate MLB level players? Add in Dunn who already has some elite pitches, but some command issues and I would be shocked if at least 1 of those doesn't hit and more than likely all 3 will look very strong at the A and A+ level and then AA becomes the separator on whether they are legit prospects or not. Someone posted the arms primarily consisted of 3 categories after the 2 high school kids were picked. Pitchers who slightly underperformed expectations from last year, were recovering from injury, and lastly small colleges.

The biggest difference in this draft was the quality of pitching prospects even in the mid to late rounds. Elite - Soto - he has the chance to be a #1 pitcher. He has good velocity, movement and command. Needs to continue to develop. High Ceiling low floor HS pitcher - Questad is a very interesting pick. It will be interesting to see how he develops Good pitchers need to improve velocity and pitches - Hall Stoffal, Langenberg, Lee, Pasqualatto, Bragg Currently throwers need to develop more command and refine pitches - Dunn, Hamilton, Bengard, Silvas, Garcia If you look at just the good pitchers category I think you can effectively have a very solid A Ball pitching staff. The majority of these pitchers have been starters, ultimately even though we needed some pitching prospects, we won't have enough spots for all these players as starters. It will be curious to see which players they throw in the pen and who they leave as starters. Gut feel I think Soto develops into a #1 or #2, 2 develop from the good pitcher category and 1 to 2 develop from the thrower category into either starters or relievers. If we can have 4-5 legit prospects develop from this class that would be great, top it off with 3 solid to elite bats in Jenkins, Keaschall and Winokur if this draft pans out you can heavily impact the success of the organization. A lot of teams will have successful draft from this class, due to the quality and quantity of the prospects.

Took a 1st baseman in the 19th round Sam Parker. When researching found Winokur had the highest average exit velocity during the June 2023 combine and Sam Parker had the furthest distance of any player. Highest average exit velocity (batting practice) (# of batted balls in parentheses) 108.3 mph (9) - Brandon Winokur, OF, Edison HS (Calif.) (No. 72) 106.7 mph (8) - George Wolkow, OF, Downers Grove North HS (Ill.) (No. 68) 102.5 mph (9) - Joe Vetrano, 1B, Boston College 101.3 mph (11) - TayShaun Walton, CF, IMG Academy (Fla.) (No. 165) 100.9 mph (14) - Jonathon Long, 3B, Long Beach State 100.5 mph (16) - Kemp Alderman, OF, Mississippi (No. 62) 100.3 mph (13) - Trent Caraway, SS, JSerra Catholic HS (Calif.) (No. 67) 100.3 mph (12) - Myles Naylor, 3B, St. Joan of Arc Catholic SS (Canada) (No. 59) 100.3 mph (5) - Caden Sorrell, CF, Marcus HS (Texas) (No. 76) 99.7 mph (11) - Gavin Grahovac, SS, Villa Park HS (Calif.) (No. 146) Longest maximum distance (batting practice) 456 feet - Sam Parker, 1B/OF, Kennesaw Mountain HS (Ga.) 443 feet - Kemp Alderman, OF, Mississippi (No. 62) 437 feet - Brandon Winokur, OF, Edison HS (Calif.) (No. 72) 437 feet - Will Simpson, INF, Washington 435 feet - Andrew Wiggins, OF/RHP, Heritage Christian (Ind.) 431 feet - George Wolkow, Downers Grove North (IL.) (No. 68) 429 feet - Daniel Cuvet, INF/RHP, ESB Academy (Fla.) 429 feet - Sabin Ceballos, 3B, Oregon (No. 153) 424 feet - Alfonsin Rosario, CF, P27 Academy (S.C.) 424 feet - Luke Keaschall, SS, Arizona State (No. 90)

Or the Twins can trade for a few prospects. Not a big deal across the board.

yes and last I checked we still have a few rounds left. And I am completely comfortable with them drafting a prospect that late in the draft for the C position as its worked. They are primarily filling positions and find lightning in a bottle. Likely feel the catcher position is one that needs more coaching at these levels. I think they have found more than enough organizational talent for the Catcher position after the 6th round.

Kade Bragg looks like another decent pick.

"but that they need someone to catch at the lower levels....."

I said it before and I think it is showing, this is a deep class. It is fairly clear the Twins feel there are a lot pitching prospects that have something they like that they can work with. This is very good. Hopefully the top of the draft pans out, because I am fairly confident a couple or more of these pitching prospects will pan out. Lots of quality picks.

Im not sure where the angst from catching prospects is coming from 2017 Cosgrove 17, Bailey 37, Rodriguez 38 2018 Chris Williams 8th round Casanova 13th 2019 Schmidt 33 rd, Isola 29th round 2021 Cardenas 8th, Winkel 9th 2022 Cossetti 11th, Baez 12th If the value is there the Twins will grab catchers in rounds 8-12, if not they are completely comfortable waiting til the end of the draft to pick up a catcher or two.

I think the Twins feel comfortable with the Catching prospects they have. They also likely have 1 or 2 pegged for the end of the draft. This round a couple C came off the board, but its primarily been pitchers.

Im hoping in the next round or two Twins take a shot on Keaton Anthony. Heck of a bat.

Xander Hamilton, 6'3" beefier 225lbs. High strikeouts 12 per a 9. Some tools to work with here. My guess is another couple pitchers to get picked yet today.

if we get a catcher or I am expecting in the last couple picks, likely a no name that they see something in. Too many decent prospects still available. The catching position just seemed to fall of a cliff this year on quality prospects.

Garrett Mcmillan just got drafted again.

Jeremy Lee - South Alabama 5'11" - ranked 415 one site. I don't know, not seeing it unless a reliever. Don't see much on pitch mix.

Pasqualotto, another good pitcher at this point in the draft. Good slider, could use a little more velocity and movement on 92 mph fastball. I am really liking the pitchers in this draft. Still waiting for that 6'6" mound of clay in a prospect :).

Being a Hawkeye fan, Langenberg is excellent value at this point. Strong pitcher came in as the expected #1 struggled a little bit but was still overall strong numbers in a decent B1G conference. He has the potential to add a bit to the fastball. Similar to Hall and Stoffal, good stuff not the highest of ceiling but have the tools that can become a very good pitcher for the Twin. Iowa has 1 more prospect that likely should have been taken earlier. Anthony, the question is whether will come back to college or will sign. Ultimately I think will sign, however not sure the Twins would take a chance. He is currently in an investigation for gambling, although appears to be small and maybe a football game, or fantasy football. He was suspended for the back half of the season and missed the CWS.

Martin and SWR both seem to be enigmas. Martin is struggling since coming back. The only thing separating is Martin had a hell of a a fall ball last year. Varland could be #3. I think the only thing holding him back is his ceiling of at best likely be a #3 or #4 starter. Priellip is the one I struggled with, could be 7 to 8 could be in the 15-20 range. If healthy and performing a top 5 prospect. Really hard to project.

Here is my rough top 21. Probably missing something but decent idea. 1. Lee 2. Jenkins 3. Soto 4. Raya 5. Wallner 6. Varland 7. Winkur 8. Schobel 9. Keaschall 10. E Rod 11. SWR 12. Martin 13. Hall 14. Qustad 15. Priellip 16. Festa 17. Williams 18. Enlow 19. Dunn 20. Lewis 21. Cossetti

:) correct, I don't always talk clearly, add in transferring to typing, some things definitely get jumbled.

As much as I really like the Soto pick, how much does it say that Lopez reached out to this kid and was a great ambassador for the Twins and the Minnesota Twins community as a whole. As much as I still dislike trading Arreaz, I really think having Lopez on our team especially with an extended contract was worth it.