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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Thomas Burns- can regularly top 100 mph with great ride. However questionable command and doesn’t really have a secondary pitch yet. Purely a reliever at this point.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Some interesting pitchers taken so far. Similar approach to last year where we seem to be loading on pitching prospects.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Let’s be clear the Twins are just trying to find relievers they can tweak a bit and give opportunity to see if can be a decent reliever. Gomez was an absolute find and appears to have long term potential. Who knows on this reliever and Coloumbe seems to be a guaranteed pickup in my opinion. Solidify the bullpen some more before the trade deadline and then see what’s available.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    To be fair the quote was he could go to college for 3 years and come out a 1st round prospect. He could also be mediocre and be a mid to late round draft pick. I am sure they have price range agreed to prior to picking him. many of these picks are going to flame out. It takes some luck but I like the profiles of both catchers. Both players that continue to improve. They had excellent stats in the best pitching conference - if the Twins think they can improve their defense with their track record we have to give them the benefit of the doubt. The pitchers is a crap shoot.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am amazed by the disdain for Tinney by most here. Most think he has no chance to stick behind the plate. His arm is elite, his blocking is solid and his framing which isn’t as necessary moving up is improving. My guess is they scouted him a lot this year and he was a backup option if one of the shortstops fell to us. With the way the board fell in the second round they still liked his potential. He improved his defensive metrics and the Twins are an organization that has been able to improve defensive metrics. Jeffers was viewed as a big catcher with defensive concerns. The other question in Tinney is the swing and miss. However he greatly improved as the season went on. So he is teachable and can translate it to the hitters box. Yes there will need to be some continued refinement. He struggled a little bit his first month but had elite numbers in the SEC and improved them in the NCAA tournament.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This was my thought on a car ride home. I would not be surprised to see Tait flipped at the deadline and potentially for a reliever with multiple years of control. Who knows though. It’s a similar profile though and we can flip the more risky Tait for an asset now and still have immense catching depth in the minors. Many really wanted Ike Irish last year in the first round last year and other than Irish having better wood bat league stats, they seem extremely similar. The Twins have a pretty good system in place to improve defensive metrics, so I think there is a high probability he sticks behind the plate.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    LOL, for the last 5 years there have been complaints of the Twins not picking a catcher and the lack of organizational depth. This year they pick 2. Obviously Lackey fell to us. In the second round we obviously saw value- he seems like a solid pick. Needs work on defense what he improved this year and some improvement on hit tool- but honestly his college numbers have been good.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Taj Bradley is much more valuable and a better trade than the transaction with Clemens.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Well that’s a sample size of five. LOL I am sure this is a major confidence boost for him though. Great job Roden.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Well Rozek was out so he was just filling in. He has a 1.5 whip in AA. We have slim pickings for the bullpen in both AAA and the MLB level, so if he is going to be a post all star Twins bullpen piece it appears it would be out of necessity and not because he is a true shutdown reliever right now.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He was a post TJ pick in 2023, and had struggled some in his 2023 year prior to the draft. He was topping out at around 92 that year. So obviously this is a pick that is working out, but this comes with the caveat that he is being pushed aggressively as much out of necessity as it is that the coaches see something special about him. I honestly think its a bit of both.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You realize the only way this works is that is exactly what happens most likely. Unless the Rays go clear off the reservation and go way unde slot at pick 2. As an accountant the math just doesn't work. So all 3 prospects are valued at lets say 40 million dollars currently. Flora will be $20 million and they will trend down after that. The savings will not give you the value that you could get by trading the player in the offseason.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You are trying to bully a team into not taking a player. The Twins don't really tend to play that game. They will pick the player they think are the best and pay slot money. Nothing the Giants can do about it. But if you are trying to get a player at 3 to take below market value you could have a player unwilling to play ball and say they won't sign below XYZ. This scenario is the entire reason the Twins tanked last year. Increase your odds to get a high pick. Yes you dropped one slot from who was eligible for a lotter pick - but ultimately 1 pick higher than where the Twins ended in the standings (4th). You are going to end up with an elite prospect. The value of that #3 pick over the value of the #4 pick is evident by everything Posey is trying to do.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I don't see any of these players willing to take a discount. Add in that you have the Giants who are actively stating they will overpay to try to get Chowolsky, Emerson or Lackey to fall to 4. They traded a Bailey to the Gaurdians to get the #29 pick and increase their bonus pool.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Just to show how tightly grouped the top 3 picks are, if they were to be included in the top 100 list - 1 evaluator would put Cholowsky at 19, Emerson at 24, Lackey at 25. Flora would then be 49 and Booth is outside the top 100 at 110. Salas is rated currently as a top 20 prospect and has a current value of around 40 on the trade calculators (highly subjective). You are getting an elite talented prospect - Chowolsky and Lackey are extremely polished with extremely high floors. Emerson is the best high school prospect since Bobby Witt Jr.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If Houston starts punishing AA pitching - a pick most were extremely meh about becomes potentially extremely valuable. His speed and power is much better than anticipated. He is sitting at 32 steals on the season and is a perfect 8 for 8 in 12 games for Wichita. Now its 1 game and he had struggle a bit prior to that game - but great game Marek. Amick did go 4-5 last night. He needs a few more of those as well. He is really leaned back into his power roots this year, rather than the contact approach he seemed to utilize last year.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    My personal opinion is they take the safe pick at 3, the best player left of the 3 then we may see some tweaks. Now this could get tested though which I will discuss. We have seen tweaks throughout the years, more power less hit tool early on. Originally primarily only taking college pitchers then around 2021 they really leaned into taking 1-2 HS pitchers each year. The biggest thing is the Twins have generally punted C for the last 10 years. Now they took Jeffers with a 2nd round pick (which was considered a major reach at the time) and Khadim Diaw in the 3rd. Otherwise several in the 8-10 round range or late in the draft. I remember last year thinking Ike Irish being available would be an extremely smart pick in the 1st and they took Houston. Sitting here today I think Houston is the better player of the 2. Irish still has questions regarding his defense and Houston's power and speed is better than anticipated and the defense is already MLB level. The hit tool was expected to be pretty good, it was just whether he could do enough damage. So if Lackey is there at 3 do they take him? This will be the test. My personal opinion is yes. Lackey had better offensive numbers than Irish and plays elite defense. Add in the Twins have had evaluators at every single one of Lackey's games. Otherwise I expect small tweaks that effectively follow the same gameplan they have been using.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think the question would be rookie of the year considerations for top 100 prospects and the 6 years of control.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I've been consistent that I don't think they should have traded Varland. He should have been the de facto closer coming into the season.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think they really like Gray as a person. He is being paid 800k no matter what and between him and Kreidler they are trying to cobble through the year to save a year of service time for Culpepper. It’s not going for it or going big, but that’s what I take out of it.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Not what I’m sayin at all. They may only value him being worth 1 season or 3/4 of a season due to uncertainty with next year. Maybe they get full value from someone going for it this year. Who knows.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I continue to pound the pavement the return for the Twins is more than just Roden and Rojas- it’s also whoever we get at #3 in the draft, and it appears to be a higher probability we get either Cholowsky or Emerson which would be a major boon. Prospects are prospects but both have ceilings that are extremely high.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You seem to forget Mick Abel who looks like he belongs at the MLB level if he can remain healthy. As to prospects with a full 6 years left, you have Rojas, Roden, Mendez, Tait, Gallagher, Jimenez. They have only been proven correct so far because Varland has had an epic 1st half of the season. Good for him. No one was saying anything last season when he had a negative war the majority of the 2nd half of the season and ended with a zero war prior to the playoffs.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/which-trade-candidates-would-be-most-affected-by-a-lockout Players with 1 1/2 years of service time could have less trade value due to the potential lockout. Joe Ryan is one of the specific players mentioned as being the most effected.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If the Twins can find another gear for the fastball 1 to 2 mph, while maintaining the current control, and possibly work on a slider, they could find something there. At least there is potential there. He would be the 2nd best option of the retreads we have picked up based on his metrics - Gomez being the best which has worked out well. If we can find 2 decent bullpen options off the scrap heap I would call it a pretty successful venture on punting the bullpen this year.
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