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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lee and Walker look like legit MLB players with potential all star potential. Soto is young but early returns look good. Winokur in SSS looks pretty good. Rodriguez and Gonzalez continue to excel at the things they do well, but still have things to improve. Festa looks like could be a solid mlb pitcher, Raya is too hard for me to tell. The quantity of solid arms in the minors is really starting to grow. Lewis, Festa (Canterino and Priellip we will see if can pitch and how well) , Morris, Soto, Raya, Culpepper, Morris - then your 2023 non headliner picks (Hall, Questad, Stoffal, Dougherty, Dunn (looking very good) Langenberg, Paqualotto, and Lee). We only need 1 to really become that #1 pitcher. If you compiled the 19, 21, 22, 23 drafts, the Twins have to have a top 3 record of drafting, at worst top 5. We have used a lot of draft capital to support the mlb team through trades. You keep drafting well year after year after year, the results will show up at the big league level.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Then you better change your fandom to the Dodgers. They are the only team that I see in the foreseeable future that is guaranteed to effectively win every year. Other organizations are trying to win too.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    As I have said before if you are that upset with management or performance this isn't likely going to change for the Twins in the near term. Their success in the last 8 years is something that can't be taken away even if you think it was poor competition. It does look like the Central is becoming a tougher division for the foreseeable future. 4 decent teams. 1 non contender. When did they exactly lose 18 straight games . . . all during this managements tenure . . . where are you going with this it. It looks like you have 20 year so pent up frustration. If I remember correctly me and you had this exact same discussion last year. I've come to the conclusion you are a glass half empty I am a glass half full type of person. If you followed baseball, divisions are not won in April but they can be lost, and like I said being close to .500 is not losing the division. I look at the entire organization. The talent in the minors is really becoming interesting. There are potentially some foundational pieces that may be coming up the pipeline. So yes, looking at the big picture, what the Twins management is doing and has done, I am very happy with. I am also not willing to throw in the towel after 20 games. Ultimately better just leave it here. You can continue to be upset with the direction, I will continue to cheer on my team.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Show me another team other than the dodgers that have starting caliber players on the bench??? It just isn't reasonable.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Correa played how many games last year??? As to Lewis, a variety of injuries I am still not willing to say injury prone. Buxton yes, yet he has been the healthiest one and maybe has turned a corner. They didn't have the options to buy higher level talent. Be upset with that what you wish. The long term plan is still in place and you have to admit there is still a better than fair probably they get to the playoffs. Also when did we get smashed in the playoffs??? Just curious must have missed that last year. Yes we lost, but we were not smashed. Their strategy is for long term success while fostering success at the MLB level that they can. Poor division or not, you answer your own question they are still winning. For a small market team they are doing pretty well. Yes I would like them to succeed at the upper echelons every year but I am happy with the current direction.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You should not expect Lewis and Correa to get injured. Yes we platoon players but players that are playing that really are not replacement level players shouldn't be expected to performas great players. So what are you going to say if the Twins win the division at the end of the season . . . the FO flawed approach hindered their winning but they won despite it? Slumps happen, losing streaks happen injuries happen. Keep improving and get better the next day.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    SSS yes I can. Also as to legitimate players still up with the team you have Kepler, and Santana. Miranda and Julien are above. The rest are backup or AAA players, again injuries is making a reason why they are up or getting more at bats that they can, and there is an aspect of luck and possibly early season issues. Obviously there is a large contingent that disagree, as I got 5 down votes. However if we sweep this series and get back to .500 in the next week or so, really we are not in bad shape at all. Reinforcements are coming.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Dang 20 games in and already the blame game LOL. Injuries have been the biggest issue and its not even an option.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    8 months later and this draft is looking very very good. Jenkins last year looked amazing. Need him to get healthy, but he appears to be stud. Soto so far is performing exceptionally for an 18 year old. Winokur right now is a steal as a 3rd rounder and Keaschall just continues to hit. The pitching is where this draft gets interesting. So far Questad has been held out. Hall has had a couple rough outings (honestly not worried about this one, he has consistently performed) as well as Langenberg. However, promising starts for Dunn, Pasqualotto and most importantly Soto. If we can have 5 solid pitching prospects from this class, with Soto leading the charge, with the bat prospects, this class is still on track to be a franchise altering draft.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    SSS- but is Cespedes figuring it out? Dunn is starting to lead the charge on the 2023 drafted SP. I still have high hopes for this group of arms, and honestly Dunn has a very high ceiling. Really the minor performances overall have been very good. Need players to continue to get healthy and players to get to their correct levels. I am still optimistic about the Twins season, but very optimistic about our farm system. They continue to draft quality players. 2023 is looking like a banner year. Walker, Soto, Keashall, Winokur are all looking very very good.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It appears Soto is dialing back the velocity a bit (similar to Petty's progression although I do expect more velocity due to his size with Soto), while still being able to get it up in the upper 90's when needed. Control is still a bit of an issue, hovering around 60% strikes from what I have been seeing. However, the stuff is there for the strikeouts. The quality of the pitching is definitely matching his potential. We have to remember Soto, he has a high ceiling with a low floor, due to his limited pitching (which is both good and bad - limited innings, and limited bad habits). So far so good, this pick is looking very promising. Like Gast I have been very excited about this pick.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Early sample size, even though I was against it, that Doncon for Miller swap is looking pretty good right now. Overall, I like where the system and even the major league roster is looking. I know rough start over all and injuries, but I think once players get back, which they are starting to with Kepler, then things will start to improve across the board. You remove the injured players and really overall for early in the season, most players are performing pretty well. I continue to like Winokur, I think he will be a really solid player down the road. He seems to be settling in. He does have 3 errors early in the season, may be showing SS is a little bit outside his range, but will continue to monitor.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Bullpen hasn't been a focus, and I really don't think its worthwhile to spend a lot of assets in bullpen arms in the draft. You can sign some, convert some starters and move on. Varland very well could end up back in the bullpen. I think things will get better at all levels on the pitching front and W/L need to just get through this patch and get healthy.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So let me get this straight . . . based off of his first true game experience, you are comparing him to a pitcher that has had significant injuries on how the Twins will handle Soto even though they have not used that same treatment with any other pitcher??? They are going to build him up. Looks like he was dang impressive in his first outing against players his level. That looks very, very promising. Lets see how the summer goes, but I am very optimistic on his potential. A #1 or #2 pitcher this system needs. He has a build and motion that should be able to handle the stress of going 5,6 or 7 innings a game. Just need to continue to develop his command and effectiveness of secondary pitches.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You have a healthy buck it changes the dynamic of this team. Disappointing on Lewis but he will heal. Get through the next couple weeks. See if Correa and buck can lead you. Sweeping the Royals would be a nice start.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He has the ability whether he can or not is a different question. His pedigree says he can, just look at the stats I posted. Now MLB is a jump up and actual umps calling strikes, but he is showing more consistency of hitting the ball. What are the odds, 30-40%. I feel more comfortable about him succeeding in MLB for the long run than Wallner.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Martin had a .387 OBP in AAA last year. I don't consider being in the .370 to .400 range as lofty expectations. That is what I hope he does while acknowledging it could be lower. How are they similar. First off, both know more for bat first players working on their defense and both trying to find a position. Both High OBP players. Austin Martin 2021 .414 2022 .368 2023 .381 Ed Julien 2021 .431 2022 .441 2023 .435 (minor league) .381 MLB They both have a similar skillset of commanding the zone well with more power from Julien, more speed from Martin. If Martin can be in that .370 to .400 range that is an incredibly small group of players. There were a total of 14 players in the mlb who had an OBP of .370 or higher. So Yes in comparison, Julien and Martin could be very valuable offensive piece if he can continue to perform at his historical levels.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Martin has the potential to be like Julien, well outperforming expectations. He has excellent command of the strike zone, just needs a little more contact. That had been improving going back to his previous style rather than going for more power. However I want to see more consistent with higher BA and OBP ranging in the .370 to .400 range. That will allow him to be a menace on the basepaths.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Actually it has when you are trading minimal assets for that player. The rogers for Paddack and emilio pagan trade worked for the Twins. The trade with Seattle works for the twins, even removing Disco. The Mahle trade was a bad trade even before the injury. When you are treating the players as negative assets you will win, just by counting cards. Effectively we paid 4 million on Disco for better prospects in exchange for Polanco. Yes if healthy he could have been a 2 to 3 quality pitcher. However there were ample signs along the way his rehab was not going well.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    They got the value of what they did due to the medicals on Desclafani. He was a thrown in and a negative asset at 4 million a year. We don't get the prospects we do without taking him on. The Twins were willing to eat some salary on him, get the prospects and see if he could remain healthy. He couldn't. On the upside, Varland looks good, really good so far. You also have a potential pitcher in Festa.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You got high expectations then. A kid with 2 plus plus pitches doesn't impress you that throws 98 mph. Likely amped up for the game and pitching against hitters much more advanced than him. This is going to be a major instructional year for him. Chase Petty in 2021 looks like he was a little further along as a pitcher. However between the Twins and Reds, he decided to cut back on velocity, focus more on location and quality of the pitches he is throwing. He has had two years in a row of arm discomfort, so they are probably trying to reduce stress on the arm, while maximizing his ability. He is a top 100 prospect but the ceiling is coming down. Soto's ceiling is sky high but he isn't currently in the realm of a Petty. He seems very similar to Brody Brecht of the Hawkeyes who is a draft prospect this year and 21 years old. He went 4 innings into friday game, 1 run, proceeded to give up a hit and 2 walk and was pulled. His ERA is like 1.8, ton of strikeouts, but is only throwing strikes at about 58-60% clip and his whip is 1.46. Crazy amount of swing and miss will occur from both players, but they are going to have to learn to control the zone to become a high end pitcher in the big leagues. I am ok with taking the gamble on Soto, and he is exactly on the track I would expect for a pitcher who has really only been a pitcher for a year or two. Wait and see.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You are not paying attention to how Lopez treats spring training. He treats spring training as experimentation and refining pitches he wants to work on. I think one spring training game last year all he threw was his new sweeper nothing else. “Pitching is an art; pitching is science,” López said. “It's about having the tools, having an idea of what you want to work on, to make sure that's what you're working on that day, stick to that thing. Next bullpen, it's going to be something else and something else, and then it's going to be a big final product.” Same thing with the 0-2 sinker that Olson took deep on Monday. López knew he hadn’t thrown any 0-2 sinkers to lefties last season, so he challenged himself to try it and see if it could factor in at points this season. “It didn't work out; he hit it like 600 feet,” López said. “But it's like, maybe that's not the right guy to do it if you're going to attempt a pitch like that.”
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Have you looked at the lineups? In general 7-8 minor leaguers, maybe 1-2 name hitters, the odd game where 4-6 big leaguers. As to the pitchers, primarily bull pen games. Also the pitchers are working on pitches, not what they can do well. I do not know, but I am guessing Topa is working on something, also getting a homerun or two, inflates the states in a SSS. Lets look at the positives: 1. Buxton - Looks healthy looks to be swinging well, and running well. Homers and triples, sign me up. 2. Correa - looks heathy. Buxton and Correa as top 30 players if they stay healthy should really be a big help. 3. Julien - Looks to be replicating last year. 4. Ober - wants to take over the #2 role. His stuff is nasty. 5. Varland - may take over the 5 spot and not give it up. No major injuries. Only real set back is to Disco. We will see if he can give us some innings this year or not and how successful he is. I will be keeping an eye on Kepler and Wallner. However for now, I am very pleased with spring training. This team will be very very good. 93-96 W is my guess.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am a big Kepler fan, I also think he has figured something out. In 21 at bats so far, and a .693 OPS he is not quite showing it. Granted, he may be trying to work on something. I am beginning to think he may be a player that takes a while to get in a groove and once there does well. How quickly can he get to that point this year. .700 is still better than what he did last spring, but I want him in the .800 to .900 range this year.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Petty was having elbow soreness last year so they took it easy. He has also dialed back on his fastball and now averaging in the 92-94 range. He is still a very good pitcher shown by top 100 status, but the ceiling is coming down a bit. As to the Twins philosophies, I think they like the high upside of high school pitchers generally in the late 1st til about 3rd round - I feel last year was an exaggeration due to how deep the draft was and the fact the Questad was willing to signing for $500k. You add in the fact we had a relatively empty pipeline when they got here it is not surprising they went more to the college pitching route to try and boost the pipeline more quickly with more developed pitchers. Early reports on Soto look good. I am looking forward to game action from him. He is fresh ball of clay with an arm that doesn't have a ton of mileage which is good and has some downside in that we don't know how much of a workload it can handle. With his body type I am not too worried, he appears to be very well put together. The pitching side of the farm is something I am very excited about. I think there are a lot of quality arms at all levels and the cream will start to rise to the top.
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