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The Minnesota Twins have a few places to add this offseason, and if they want to repeat as winners of the American League Central Division, they’ll need to get things right yet again. Derek Falvey is operating with a different payroll, but there is a natural avenue to be better while staying cheaper. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Minnesota Twins front office provided Rocco Baldelli with a franchise-record Opening Day payroll. It was a raise on the pocketbooks for another year and has been consistently moving that way for a while. With decreasing television revenues, it always made sense Minnesota may dial things back. Beyond that, though, having the possibility of ten players all pre-arbitration and making a league minimum of $740,000, dialing back was just part of an expected reset. Using the Twins Daily Payroll Tool this is the starting point I am operating from. Working with the parameters we know now, buckle up for the moves I would make before Opening Day. 1. Sign Rhys Hoskins for two years and $40 million This is probably a bit on the high side for Hoskins, as I’d prefer to get him at $18 million annually, but the Twins should do what they can to make him say no. They need a right-handed bat. Check. They need a middle-of-the-order bat. Check. They need a serious player at first base. Check. Hoskins checks so many boxes for Minnesota that it becomes difficult not to love that fit. He costs money rather than prospects, as Pete Alonso would, and takes significant pressure off any expectations for Alex Kirilloff. Coming off a knee injury that kept him out all of last season, there shouldn’t be any concerns in the future, and he doesn’t hamstring the roster construction in any way. 2. Trade Matt Wallner, Yasser Mercedes, and Andrew Bechtold to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Mitch Keller and Canaan Smith-Njigba Moving Wallner, as a Minnesota prospect right after his debut, won’t be well received. Getting Keller, a Cedar Rapids prospect, after his first All-Star Game might help to soften the blow. Wallner is penciled in to start as Minnesota’s left fielder, but there’s an immediate alternative in the form of Trevor Larnach. You could make the case to include Emmanuel Rodriguez, but his ceiling is substantially higher, and Keller only has two years of team control left. Mercedes is only 19 and made his stateside debut in 2023. He has incredible tools but is raw as a prospect. Bechtold is at Triple-A and plays every position, including pitcher. Acquiring Smith-Njigba in the deal, whose brother is the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver, also gives Minnesota another outfield option. He isn’t a free agent until 2029, but has fallen down the Pirates depth chart despite being on the 40-man roster. He posted an .839 OPS at Triple-A in 2023 and will be 25 years old in 2024. 3. Trade Kyle Farmer to the St. Louis Cardinals for Dylan Carlson Minnesota tender Farmer a contract not because they intend to keep a backup at nearly $7 million in 2024 but because the shortstop class in free agency is horrible, and he has the talent to start. Sending Farmer to the Cardinals gives them an immediate veteran alongside Nolan Arenado and shores up their roster should they keep Paul Goldschmidt in the final year of his deal. Prospect Masyn Winn is waiting in the wings, but he posted just a 29 OPS+ in his first 37 games last season, and this would allow him more time to develop. Carlson is a name the Twins have been tied to previously, and he has former top-10 prospect allure to him. The luster has worn off, but he hit 18 home runs while finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting just two years ago. Carlson was hurt some in 2023, but even at depreciated production in 2022, he posted a 99 OPS+ across 128 games. The Twins may unlock more production from him, and he provides a switch-hitting bat that is substantially better against lefties. He could be the Byron Buxton insurance Minnesota needs to replace Michael A. Taylor or become a high-quality bench option. 4. Sign Harrison Bader for one year and $7 million We saw last season that having a viable full-time starting centerfield option alongside Buxton is a must. Given the uncertainty of health at the centerfield position for Minnesota, having a couple of guys makes sense. Cody Bellinger is the gold standard, but that isn’t going to fit from a logic or dollars standpoint. Kevin Kiermaier could be an option, but coming off a strong year for the Blue Jays, he’s much more likely to get a multi-year deal. Taylor should be paid handsomely after his season with Minnesota, but Bader could potentially be had on a prove-it deal. Looking at some projections and the fit with Taylor leaving via free agency, Bader would be a seamless transition for the Twins. He plays at a Gold Glove-caliber defensively, and while he doesn’t bring much to the table offensively (77 OPS+ since 2022) at this point, he was exactly league average by OPS across his first 451 major league games. He has also gone 37/43 in his last two seasons of steal attempts, and replacing that for Baldelli would be beneficial. 5. Sign Matt Moore for one year and $6 million By payroll measures, this pushes the total dollars close to the high end of where Minnesota is projected to be, and that may not work. I’d love to see Lou Trivino, but he won’t be ready until midway through 2024 and may wait until then to sign. Dakota Hudson isn’t a reliever, and while Spencer Turnbull could be used as a long man or depth starter, pushing the envelope at the back end of Minnesota’s pen makes sense. Moore was designated for assignment by the Los Angeles Angels, and Minnesota put in a claim for him, but he was awarded to the Cleveland Guardians. After Cleveland fell out of it, Moore was claimed by the Miami Marlins. He made $7.55 million last year, and a similar contract makes sense as he will be in his age-35 season. Moore wasn’t as good in 2023 as he was with the Rangers in 2022, but his 2.56 ERA substantiated the strong transition to relief. The Twins bullpen could have five players making the league minimum, so adding the largest contract since Addison Reed could make sense even for a front office that has avoided spending on that group. There may be a consideration for trading Nick Gordon, as Willi Castro has surpassed him for the main utility role. That said, he’s going to command a little over the league minimum and was very good in the Castro role a year ago when healthy. If he gets to the point of ineffectiveness, there’s no reason he can’t be released at some point during the year. At that time, Austin Martin may be ready for the same type of role. Along with Polanco, Max Kepler’s name will be heard this offseason, as shedding him would result in a $10 million gain for the books. How the Twins handle the outfield configuration concerning Kepler, Larnach, and Wallner should be very interesting, but it’s Kepler’s 2023 that has me intrigued. He decided to lift the ball over the shift rather than hitting through it, and unlike in 2019, this time, it didn’t have the help of a juiced baseball. Kepler is still a great defender, and keeping him throughout his extension makes sense. With the dust settling there, the Twins would be on the hook for a $138 million Opening Day payroll. Of course, that will rise throughout the season as incentives are hit, but they could also ship players if things go sideways. Cutting further could be done with a similar talent at a lesser amount than Moore, but a $140 million bill is still nearly a $20 million savings from 2023. Unfortunately, the franchise isn’t run with a bit more spending correlation to the talent present or expectations in front of them, but this is maybe the best of both worlds. Losing the television contract means those dollars will need to come elsewhere, but even if taken over by a new entity, $30 million in revenues for 2024 would represent almost a halving of what was considered among the worst broadcast deals in the sport previously. No one should be crying poor here, and the Twins still get to field a team capable of making a run for the division and beyond. What are your thoughts? What would you do differently? Give it a try for real using the Twins Daily Payroll Tool here. View full article

This offseason, the Minnesota Twins will again find themselves in the pitching market. They'll need to replace a pair of departures to establish depth that had them owning one of the best rotations in baseball. Could they do it through the trade market? Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports While the headliner leaving Rocco Baldelli’s pitching staff is Sonny Gray, it should be noted that Kenta Maeda is on his way out as well. Derek Falvey will need to restock the group that now includes Pablo Lopez and Chris Paddack, but finding a higher-caliber arm to join them seems like a must. Playing in the free agency market may not be the most straightforward way to reduce payroll. That could bode well for a Twins organization that has done well with pitching trades, and when Gray turns into a compensatory draft pick, they’ll have seen their best work come full circle. Here are five options Minnesota could consider: Alek Manoah - Toronto Blue Jays Toronto has some serious soul-searching to do when it comes to Manoah. He was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2021 and finished third in the Cy Young voting in 2022 while also being an All-Star. Then, last season, everything fell apart. He made just 19 starts at the major league level, most of which were bad. He didn’t show up to the minors when demoted initially and was sent on a journey that had him pitching in Single-A. Maybe the relationship is tarnished with the Blue Jays, or maybe Toronto doesn’t think they can fix him. Either way, plenty was going on mentally and physically with Manoah. A change of scenery could be a good opportunity for him. Minnesota previously matched up with this front office when sending Jose Berrios to Canada for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. Max Kepler could join him to play with George Springer and Daulton Varsho in the outfield. Manoah is under team control through 2027, so the ask will be steep even if his stock is down. Proposed trade - Manoah for Kepler and David Festa (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight advantage TOR) Logan Gilbert - Seattle Mariners One of the most talked about names this offseason has been the 14th overall pick from the 2018 draft. Seattle has pitching coming out their ears with Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby. Maybe they will move Gilbert to address some other issues on their roster. He has posted numbers similar to Pablo Lopez at this point, and with the Twins making some tweaks, unlocking another level for the 27-year-old could turn him into a frontline starter. With Seattle exploring options for a second baseman, this would be a match where Minnesota may find Jerry Dipoto looking fondly at Jorge Polanco. That won’t be near enough to headline a deal for a guy who doesn’t hit free agency until 2028, but the Twins may be inclined to build a package around him. Gilbert could immediately slot in as a top-three starter for Baldelli, which would do wonders to replace Gray. Proposed trade - Gilbert for Polanco, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Trevor Larnach, and Connor Prielipp (TVS says: Significant disadvantage SEA) Paul Blackburn - Oakland Athletics Having been in Oakland for seven years, it only seems fair that Blackburn deserves saving. He will be 30 years old in 2024 and is a free agent following the 2025 season. He should be in line for only modest raises each of the next two years, which is enticing to a team not keen on writing checks like Oakland. The Athletics would certainly want prospects in return for Blackburn, and Minnesota’s depth could play beneficial there. Named as a token All-Star in 2022, Blackburn actually had a better season last year. His 4.43 ERA was nothing to write home about, but the 3.96 FIP suggests there is something to work with. He isn’t a durable arm and is not someone who will rewrite who he has been thus far in his career at this stage. Still, if the Twins want to lengthen their rotation and do it without a substantial cost, Blackburn should be available for a back-end top-30 prospect. Proposed trade - Blackburn for Jovani Moran and Josh Winder (TVS says: Advantage OAK) Mitch Keller - Pittsburgh Pirates A former second-round pick, Keller has Twins Territory ties in that he’s the pride of Cedar Rapids. Taken out of high school, he debuted at 23 and will be 28 in 2024. He’ll make a bit more money in the next two seasons, but he is still plenty cost-effective and doesn’t hit free agency until 2026. Keller’s secondary numbers are better than his ERA in the past two seasons, and his 3.84 FIP is something to dream on with a better developmental staff. He posted a career-best 9.7 K/9 last year and was just shy of 200 innings. Named an All-Star, his addition to the Twins staff would be no worse than their third-best arm. Keller would definitely come with a higher cost than Blackburn, but probably less than Manoah and Gilbert. Maybe Derek Shelton and Baldelli can team up for a deal here. Proposed trade - Keller for Matt Wallner and Yasser Mercedes (TCS says: Neutral) Corbin Burnes - Milwaukee Brewers There’s no denying that the Brewers are looking for less ways to spend. That has been the case for years, and they may now enter a period of transition with manager Craig Counsell leaving for Chicago. Burnes is in the final year of team control and’ll be north of $11 million after arbitration. Milwaukee isn’t going to want an expensive asset back, but a prospect trade could work. Burnes isn’t the same pitcher he was in 2021 when winning a Cy Young, but he’s still exceptionally talented. The Brewers will try and hope someone pays a king’s ransom, and while Minnesota needs to avoid that, a top-10 prospect package doesn’t seem ridiculous when you could be getting a true ace out of the deal. Putting Burnes at the top of a rotation with Lopez gives Minnesota a one-two punch anyone in the league should envy. Proposed trade - Burnes for Marco Raya, Kody Funderburk, and Jose Miranda (TVS says: Slight disadvantage MIL) Which of these starters are you most inclined to trade for? Does the expected cost turn you off for one more than another? View full article

We asked Twins Daily users and writers to submit their ideas for realistic offseason trades. We ended up with a list of 35 submissions. While each was unique, there were definitely some noticeable trends and commonalities. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone and Jeff Curry-USA TODAY SportsMichael McLoone and Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports If you haven't yet, you can download the (FREE!) big list of trade ideas, which is a PDF compiling submissions from our community. Each proposal was explained, vetted, and analyzed. Anyone can access this installment of our 2024 Offseason Handbook, whether you are a Caretaker or not. This call for imaginative yet considered trade ideas yielded a wide range of theoretical swaps, involving many different players. Some were off the wall; others seemed downright plausible. One person submitted a three-team deal involving six players. I encourage everyone to read through all of the many ideas unpacked in the PDF, but here I'm going to pull out some themes and takeaways that struck us as we went through all your submissions. Corbin Burnes is a good trade fit for the Twins Clearly the rumors of Burnes' availability, with reports that the Brewers are willing to trade "virtually any player" following Craig Counsell's exit, have piqued the interest of Twins fans, and for obvious reasons. Burnes is a frontline starter capable of offsetting the loss of Sonny Gray like few others could. Multiple different trade submissions targeted Burnes, including a really well thought out and explained framework from Matthew Trueblood, who has unique dual insight as editor for both a Twins and Brewers website. If Milwaukee would be down to deal Burnes and his one remaining year of control for Jorge Polanco and David Festa, as Matthew suggests, I think I'd take that in a second. Payroll could be an impediment in making a big splash The pesky knowledge of a looming Twins payroll decrease threw some cold water on a few otherwise intriguing trade ideas. Multiple people took a shot at acquiring Juan Soto from San Diego, but even if the Twins could muster a worthy package, it's hard to see how another $30 million salary fits on the books. The same is true to a lesser extent with Pete Alonso, another known trade candidate. One popular name whose pursuit could be stymied by payroll implications is Tyler Glasnow. He's an appealing fit for the Twins as a frontline talent with one remaining year of control, but the same reason Tampa is looking to unload Glasnow is the same reason Minnesota may struggle to accommodate his addition; the righty is owed $25 million in 2024. David Festa is a popular trade chip In trying to conceptualize trades that would be considered realistic, many respondents included pitching prospects, which tells us they were taking the assignment seriously. Festa was named in six different Twins trade packages, and Marco Raya was in a few others. Twins Daily has these two ranked as the top two pitching prospects in the organization, fourth and fifth overall. Minnesota's front office might prefer to trade exclusively from its position-player depth, but young arms are the currency of baseball. As I wrote in an earlier Handbook chapter, "If the Twins front office is big-game hunting this winter, these are names they’ll need to make themselves comfortable including." People are eyeing Mitch Keller as the next Pablo Lopez The Lopez trade worked out extremely well, so it's unsurprising that many fans are eager to try and replicate it. Pittsburgh's Keller was called out in multiple submissions as a target with similar traits: he's pretty young (27) with good-not-great performance and upside to potentially be tapped. Like Lopez a year ago, Keller has two remaining years of team control, and they don't figure to be that expensive. Of course, for these reasons, the Pirates won't be giving him away. Players dangled in various hypothetical Keller trades included Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and both of the top two pitching prospects mentioned above. Unloading salary for prospects looks like a realistic path It's no surprise that there were a lot of different deals in the book involving Max Kepler and/or Jorge Polanco, given that both are logical candidates to be shopped this winter. Several of these proposals brought back immediate impact talent, but if the Twins are truly motivated to move one or both for salary reasons, a trade that brings back prospects might be most likely -- particularly if the Twins are using this step-back in spending as an opportunity to reload their longer-term pipeline. One trade suggestion from user Cory had the Twins swapping Polanco for RHP Tom Harrington, the No. 6 prospect in Pittsburgh's system. Another submission, from "harmony," sent both Polanco and Kepler to Seattle for their top pitching prospect Emerson Hancock. If you haven't yet, we encourage you to explore the Big List of Twins Trade Ideas and share your own thoughts, or any ideas for offseason trades that might've been inspired by others. View full article