Twins to Sign Veteran Free Agent First Baseman Carlos Santana

[John Bonnes]

After freeing up additional payroll flexibility with the Jorge Polanco trade, the Twins have finally waded into the free agent waters in February, agreeing to a deal with free agent slugger and longtime division rival Carlos Santana to a one-year contract for $5 million.

Image courtesy of USATSI_21488781_168390264_lowres

Per Doogie Wolfson on Twitter, the Twins have agreed to a one-year contract with 37-year-old free agent Carlos Santana, who spent last season playing with the Pirates and Brewers. He's a first baseman who can plug in at that position and designated hitter, bringing impact depth and a respected veteran bat to Minnesota's explosive yet relatively inexperienced lineup.

In a couple of key ways, Santana replaces what the Twins lost in Jorge Polanco. He's a switch-hitter who can factor into the middle of the lineup. Santana consistently gives tough at-bats and has been an amazingly consistent producer when on the field. In 14 seasons, he has posted an above-average OPS in 12, including 2023 (103 OPS+). He spent 10 of those seasons with Cleveland, who acquired him back in 2008 as a minor-leaguer from the Dodgers in a deal that included former Twin Casey Blake.

Our Lou Hennessy wrote recently about what a smooth fit Santana is for the Twins, noting his strong production against southpaws, which makes him a nice platoon fit for Alex Kirilloff and the team's various DH options. Santana slashed .266/.354/.453 against LHP last year, and .276/.375/.443 in his lengthy career.

Functionally, the Santana addition is not unlike the Donovan Solano signing from a year ago. Then, the Twins were seeking a low-cost but legit veteran bat capable of adding clubhouse leadership and providing depth at first base alongside a recovering Kirilloff. Solano ended up making 64 starts at first, and it the plan is probably to allocate a similar share there for Santana, alongside a rotational role at DH. 

The ultra-durable Santana made 603 plate appearances last year, and has eclipsed 600 in 11 of the last 12 one (non-COVID) seasons. But if he approaches that number this year, it would likely mean something went wrong elsewhere or Santana really surpassed expectations.

Early in the offseason, I wrote about how Santana exemplified a player who could help change the Twins' offensive identity as an end-to-end strikeout factory. 

"Santana is a guy who can hit for power without striking out a ton, which is a combination the Twins would welcome," I suggested. "The veteran switch hitter has long been renowned for his discipline, with a 14.8% career walk rate alongside a 16.8% K-rate. His age (38 next April) means he'll likely be available on a one-year deal, but also increases the concern of steepening decline."

Indeed, Santana has long been renowned for his patience. He posted a career-low 10.5% BB rate last year, but that still would've tied Polanco for fifth on the Twins. Santana's career 14.8% BB rate would've ranked second behind Edouard Julien (15.7%) and ahead of Joey Gallo (14.5%), who was also lost this offseason.

The plate approach is not in doubt. The big question is if "Slamtana" can still hit. The Twins have struck gold with this type of late-career signing in the past (see: Nelson Cruz), but that's certainly not the norm. Santana, who turns 38 in April, showed serious decline in some key hitting metrics last year, going from a .372 xwOBA in 2022 (88th percentile) to .305 in 2023 (23rd percentile). His exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all fell off the table. 

Thus he was available at this price, at this stage of the offseason. Santana has question marks but he's an extremely accomplished hitter who brings some much-needed attributes to the table for the Twins. They're taking a gamble that he's got more in the tank, but it's not a terribly high-stakes gamble.

Stay tuned to Twins Daily for more details and analysis of their first significant free agent signings of the offseason. For now, let's hear your thoughts on the move!

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[notoriousgod71]

Last good season in 2019. Makes sense.

 

I googled Carlos Santana twins and a twinsdaily article suggested he'd be a perfect fit... In 2018.

[Jocko87]

Ok, Martin is the RH outfielder option then?  I like it if for nothing else than the quality at bats from both side of the plate factor. 

[D.C Twins]

OK with the move as long as the $$$ dedicated does not prevent us from getting more SP support.

Oh... and Miranda's path to MLB roster just got much more difficult.... which is fine by me... make him earn his way back

[stringer bell]

Acceptable spending of the Polanco savings, I guess. I have read that each club that CS played for wanted him back, although he has moved through several in the last third of his career.

I am wondering if this is protection from another injury filled season for Kirilloff or if maybe it's a message to him that he needs to stay on the field. 

[nicksaviking]

Aw shucks, and to think about how if they'd only known about the awesome broadcasting deal a few days earlier they could have had Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins instead.

Rotten luck in no way predictable by the organization. Better luck next year.

Though I'm sure the team won't have any hesitation to pull the plug on him in May should Miranda, Lee, Sevarino or Camargo prove to be a better option.

[Jocko87]

3 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

Last good season in 2019. Makes sense.

2.7 WAR last year at first base is not nothing.  It's probably 6-7 mil for a good fit. 

[stringer bell]

Anyone remember when Santana came up as a catcher? Then they moved him to third base before finally making him a first baseman.

[Dman]

Not the move I was hoping for.  Hopefully this turns out better than I think it will.

[arby58]

Can't complain about the signing - he is a steady, professional hitter who has accumulated 35.5 WAR and added 2.7 to that total last year. You always worry when they get into their late 30s, but 2023 was, in some ways, ,an uptick for him. He will bring a slightly different approach to at bats, and that could be helpful. Let's hope he is another Nelson Cruz.

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Can't complain about the signing - he is a steady, professional hitter who has accumulated 35.5 WAR and added 2.7 to that total last year. You always worry when they get into their late 30s, but 2023 was, in some ways, ,an uptick for him. He will bring a slightly different approach to at bats, and that could be helpful. Let's hope he is another Nelson Cruz.

He was terrible the prior three years. Every year the Twins youth prove to be the better options, so the question is, will they be willing to cut bait with Santana should the expected happen? Or will they keep playing him until August like they did with Gallo?

What if Miranda looks like his 2022 self in spring training? You really think they’ll roster him over this new prize free agent?

[Parfigliano]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Aw shucks, and to think about how if they'd only known about the awesome broadcasting deal a few days earlier they could have had Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins instead.

Rotten luck in no way predictable by the organization. Better luck next year.

Though I'm sure the team won't have any hesitation to pull the plug on him in May should Miranda, Lee, Sevarino or Camargo prove to be a better option.

Last paragraph sarcasm...right

[stringer bell]

The team will now need to take someone off the 40-man roster. Duarte?

[pierre75275]

At least it's not for 11.5 mil.

I wonder if this means there is a chance to get creative with a pitching contract now on a short term deal for for a Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery.

[h2oface]

Yuk. And not the funny yuk. Wait until Santana is the leftover on the table when the other teams have picked through the desirables. So what else is new. My bet is he strikes out a ton just from being around the rest of the team. I bet Polanco could have played first just as well, so nothing gained except a heavy slow guy at first, that will be slow on the base paths when he gets on. And old. At least the brain trust didn’t pay him 11 million. 

[thelanges5]

Add this signing to the Polo trade. Hopefully the Bally deal will allow at least one more move. 😀

[GNess]

Signing most 35+ year old players include risk of decline in production, but it certainly isn't a sure thing. Santana brings a good approach at the plate and produced reasonably well last season (2023). He has a decent chance to have a positive impact on the Twins season.

[stringer bell]

The update at mlbtraderumors.com now says Smooth will get $5.25M, about what they saved in the Polanco deal. 

[danielp19653]

Nice I can't wait to have a 38 year defensively stretched switch hitter who's only good on one side of the plate. That's so much better than seeing any of the players in our system develop or get a chance.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, thelanges5 said:

Add this signing to the Polo trade. Hopefully the Bally deal will allow at least one more move. 😀

Good lord no! Their moves are like drunk uncle at the wedding dance. Stop with the moves, my eyes can’t take it!

[AlwaysinModeration]

Cost almost to the dollar the amount they saved with the Polanco trade - $5.25mm.  I can’t believe the ownership told the front office “you can’t spend a dollar more than is already on the books”, but it kind of seems like that’s what happened.

[Danchat]

I like that they added a RH bat to pair with Kirilloff and fill in at DH, but Santana isn't inspiring. He had a nice little resurgence last year that he'd do well to repeat, but at 38 you never know when his play is going to fall off a cliff. I do like that he doesn't strike out often, though I thought he took more walks than he does - seems to be my memory of earlier in his career.

I prefer him far more than Gallo's addition last year, and I have to bring this up again - Santana's 4 sacrifice flies from last year is more than Gallo has had in his entire career!

[RpR]

He is a much  better First Baseman than Kirilloff,  with a 16 percent strike out ratio, compared to Kirilloff's 23 percent.

Kirilloff may be sitting on the bench a lot.

It will be an interesting Spring Training this year.

[singlesoverwalks]

This makes sense if you compare Santana's OPS against left-handed pitching last year (.803) to Kirilloff's (.482) and Julien's (.447).

[stringer bell]

Pretty much takes Donny Barrels out of consideration.

On the position player side, adding a MAT or someone like him could happen, I guess. The largest hole in the position player side is a right handed hitter OF capable of playing center. Castro is a switch hitter and was pretty bad versus left handed pitching last year. Signing another OF would pretty much eliminate Gordon IMHO. 

[wabene]

If this is the big right handed bat, there are two things that will happen.

They are relying on in house depth for center.

They will use the new Bally's windfall to afford their new high upside starter addition! Lol

[Jocko87]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Pretty much takes Donny Barrels out of consideration.

He's this years Donny Barrels.  Upgrade!

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, wabene said:

If this is the big right handed bat, there are two things that will happen.

They are relying on in house depth for center.

They will use the new Bally's windfall to afford their new high upside starter addition! Lol

I don't expect the Twins to seriously pursue either Montgomery or Snell and I think that's the right call. I think free agent pitching is outrageously overpriced and unreliable. A trade for a younger starter might be possible, but I still think they start 2024 with what they have for pitching.

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, singlesoverwalks said:

This makes sense if you compare Santana's OPS against left-handed pitching last year (.803) to Kirilloff's (.482) and Julien's (.447).

Rhys Hoskins has an OPS over .900 vs left handed pitching. Justin Turner has crushed them too since he's been the Justin Turner we know.  And they have been two extremely reliable all around hitters the last half decade. They would have been no brainers and very affordable if the Twins wanted another first baseman. 

And if they really wanted to be cheap, Severino, Camargo, Isola and Prato destroyed lefties last year. Like .900-1.000+ OPS's. Why go to another rebound vet when we see this fail every single year? This was only done for the optics, and if he hits like he did 2020-2022 it's going to hurt the team because they get too stubborn trying to prove their free agent signings were legit. Which this one is absolutely not.

This is a dog and pony show and it's going to cost them in the win/loss column. Suck it up, don't sign any of these bums and face the music like an adult. Don't pretend you're trying to improve the lineup now, that ship has sailed.

[Fatbat]

So, if CS would have been signed by Seattle a month ago for $5M and came to us via the trade, what would people think of the trade because that is essentially what happened.