Twins to Sign Veteran Free Agent First Baseman Carlos Santana

[tony&rodney]

Signing Carlos Santana completes the offseason. He is by all reports a good guy, easy to like, and still hits lefties. The contract fits like a glove. 

In November a vague statement was issued related to payroll, revenue, balance, and an expected "correction." All offseason, including today, there have been articles and posts hopeful of the Twins strengthening the team with a couple of additions. The most common parts mentioned were a starting pitcher to slot in behind Pablo Lopez, a relief pitcher to slot next to Jhoan Duran, a RH hitting outfielder, and possibly a corner infielder. The message was clear that one or more players making above the minimum salary would be traded for salary help. The most common player identified to trade was Jorge Polanco. It is worth a reminder that only the financial hit and an expected trade were hinted at by the Twins. The hopes for other players was merely guesstimates/dreams of fans.

There has been widespread support by many for the Twins moves. A few, especially one efficient poster, have championed everything done by the Twins. I try to always focus on the positives of life. When I look over the transactions it is pretty difficult to ascertain how the Twins improved their squad. I do believe that it is possible for players like Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton, and Kepler to all have much better years than any projections predict. However, this is also a bit Pollyannish. 

The Twins added a nice 32 year old rookie relief pitcher who has had one year of success (no longer a rookie). They added a starting pitcher for the bullpen to start when needed. They added a one time slugging first baseman/DH who should help more as a coach. They signed some players to invite to Florida. They lost Gray, Maeda, Solano, Farmer, and Polanco. I may have missed someone. Correa, Buxton, and the young players have a big chore to make up for all of these guys and improve enough to hold off the other teams in the division. Let's hope they can do it.

The Twins accomplished all of their offseason goals even if those did not include our wishes for the team. The division is still a goal and possible. My biggest disappointment is for those fans who would like to watch Twins games being shut out by the continuing ineptitude of whomever was tasked to handle media in the Twins organization.

[karcherd]

10 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Aw shucks, and to think about how if they'd only known about the awesome broadcasting deal a few days earlier they could have had Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins instead.

Rotten luck in no way predictable by the organization. Better luck next year.

Though I'm sure the team won't have any hesitation to pull the plug on him in May should Miranda, Lee, Sevarino or Camargo prove to be a better option.

The Twins will not pull the plug even if it doesn't work.  They wait way to long with the veterans to pull the plug.  He will be on the roster all year long regardless of performance.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, danielp19653 said:

Nice I can't wait to have a 38 year defensively stretched switch hitter who's only good on one side of the plate. That's so much better than seeing any of the players in our system develop or get a chance.

Team shouldn’t develop in Minneapolis, develop in St. Paul. He establishes a floor at 1B. “Chances” in the Show come in rebuilding organizations or out of desperation. Santana’s actually better on defense than anyone else we roster……..+11 in one rating & +2 in a second rating.

Can move his salary somewhere at the break if he’s underperforming (via trade or release) or if Miranda - Severino & Co. are pushing their way in to the team.

Better than getting to Spring Training with a clear option v. hoping Miranda can get back to similar production to that of typical Santana. Miranda’s 2022 (his good year) he had a .325 OBP & .751 OPS with 1.0 WAR & 15 HR in 444 AB’s. Santana’s 2023 was a .318 OBP & .747 OPS with 2.7 WAR & 23 HR in 550 AB’s. The WAR is higher because of 110 more AB’s & much better defense. They established a Floor for that role and it matches up favorably - at least level, to Miranda’s 2022.

[arby58]

10 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

He was terrible the prior three years. Every year the Twins youth prove to be the better options, so the question is, will they be willing to cut bait with Santana should the expected happen? Or will they keep playing him until August like they did with Gallo?

What if Miranda looks like his 2022 self in spring training? You really think they’ll roster him over this new prize free agent?

You can play the 'what if' game all day, but you're forgetting, in your example, that Gallo started off red hot, and even with his end of year collapse, he still had, for the season, a league average OPS and 101 OPS+. Besides, last year Santana, hit 23 HR, had 86 RBI and a 103 OPS+. The Twins took a flyer on Gallo, who in 2022 had an OPS+ of 79 - they are far different situations, and Miranda still has something to prove based on last year.

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, the backup CF is really Gordon or Castro? There is no fourth OF on the roster? Or is there still room for another hitter?

There's room on the roster but apparently not in the payroll.

[JD-TWINS]

Santana is the perfect compliment to Kirilloff in the RH batter’s box. If Kirilloff gets nicked they have a guy that posts every day he’s asked to play. He can play two months straight if needed. Also, as a complete aside, I’m assuming he can handle the bat and advance runners with contact if overmatched & can bunt as well. Veteran that doesn’t strike out at a high rate and walks at a good rate & plays great defense (that seems overlooked here) at 1B —- with 23 HR power as recently as 2023!!

This is the front office adding a guy of value and getting mostly nothing but static about the move - lots & lots of critics last year with Solano signing as well! We’ll see.

[arby58]

9 hours ago, stringer bell said:

If, like Gallo, he's in the lineup after struggling for weeks, then I might want to change my tune, but for now I think it is a decent low cost, low risk move. 

I agree with your general perspective, but Gallo wasn't struggling at the start of the year - he was their best hitter. It's a lot harder to 'back off' a player when they had put up the early numbers that Gallo did. They eventually did. For all the complaining about him (mostly legitimate), he was good defensively and put up a league average OPS (power hitting helps with that) and a 101 OPS+.

[Otaknam]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Acceptable spending of the Polanco savings, I guess. I have read that each club that CS played for wanted him back, although he has moved through several in the last third of his career.

I am wondering if this is protection from another injury filled season for Kirilloff or if maybe it's a message to him that he needs to stay on the field. 

I think Kiriloff already knows he needs to stay on the field. It’s not like he concocts reasons to miss games, his body just hasn’t cooperated.

[Otaknam]

A welcome change from the home run or strikeout lineup the FO has constructed. Let’s hope he still is a dangerous hitter and has something left. He replaces Gallo’ 40%+ strikeouts mixed in with an occasional hit, so that’s an upgrade despite his defensive limitations. 

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I was hoping for Soler.  Maybe that's still possible.

I'm pretty sure they're done and that's the disappointing part. Signing Santana prevents them from signing anyone better. He's probably worth the $5M but that doesn't even buy you an average player anymore.

They've cut payroll 20% from a spending level that wasn't even league average. They'd better spend some of that locking up young players like Jeffers and Duran.

[arby58]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins added a nice 32 year old rookie relief pitcher who has had one year of success (no longer a rookie). They added a starting pitcher for the bullpen to start when needed. They added a one time slugging first baseman/DH who should help more as a coach. They signed some players to invite to Florida. They lost Gray, Maeda, Solano, Farmer, and Polanco. I may have missed someone. Correa, Buxton, and the young players have a big chore to make up for all of these guys and improve enough to hold off the other teams in the division. Let's hope they can do it.

The Twins accomplished all of their offseason goals even if those did not include our wishes for the team. The division is still a goal and possible. My biggest disappointment is for those fans who would like to watch Twins games being shut out by the continuing ineptitude of whomever was tasked to handle media in the Twins organization.

Some people are half full types, and I won't apologize for being one of them. The above is the equivalent of 'half empty' thinking. So the 'nice 32 year old relief pitcher had one year of success' - which happened to be last year, and it was very successful, and done in high leverage situations for a play-off contending team. The one-time slugging first baseman/DH who should help more as a coach' had a WAR last year that would have been third best on the Twins - and he would have led them in RBIs by 20. Given what may be new-found revenue, they also may not be done. Meanwhile, no additional value is provided for what should be full seasons by very productive rookies from last year. Yes, the starting pitching isn't as strong, but you hit as well as pitch. I believe this year's offense will be much improved over last year. All they have to replace offensively is the half year of Polanco and the full year of Taylor, which doesn't strike me as a heavy lift.

[NotAboutWinning]

I wonder if this signals a small shift in the Twins hitting philosophy? He can be productive without the "swing for the fences, strikeouts be damned" approach.

[tbruggs11]

This article fails to mention his sub 700 OPS in 2020-2022.  2023 wasn’t great by any stretch but even that was probably an outlier for an upper 30’s hitter.  This is our plan at DH????  I’m confused.

Put the money in a piggy bank and let young guys play if this is how we are going to “spend.”  Disappointing.

[rv78]

Santana, who turns 38 in April, showed serious decline in some key hitting metrics last year, going from a .372 xwOBA in 2022 (88th percentile) to .305 in 2023 (23rd percentile). His exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all fell off the table. 

This is what worries me. It would appear his bat is toast and at 38 he's unlikely to get it back. Some guys need to retire (like Gallo, even tho he hasn't yet) and Santana's time has come. But if there are teams willing to give you 1 more payday I guess I can't blame him, which I don't, I blame the ding-dongs in the Twins FO for signings like this. It has been said, with Roccos penchant for playing matchups Santana will get plenty of at bats, more then he deserves. Just like Gallo. And just like Gallo you don't let an $11M player sit on the bench unless you completely fall off the deep end, and in Santana's case at $5.25M he won't be sitting either. If Kirilloff is hitting well Santana will still get his playing time and Kirilloff may end up in the OF. There you go, there's your other outfielder you've all been clamoring for.

[Major League Ready]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm pretty sure they're done and that's the disappointing part. Signing Santana prevents them from signing anyone better. He's probably worth the $5M but that doesn't even buy you an average player anymore.

They've cut payroll 20% from a spending level that wasn't even league average. They'd better spend some of that locking up young players like Jeffers and Duran.

I never understand why posters use Major League Average to measure how aggressively a team is spending.  A team that generated 120% of average revenue should be expected to spend roughly 120% of league average.  The Twins generated 78% of league average in 2022 and might have been a tick higher in 2023 with playoff revenue.  Why would we use major league average to set expectations for a team significantly below average?  To put numbers to this .... The 2022 Washington Nationals were the closest to league average revenue in 2022 at 103%.  They generated $89M more in revenue than the Twins.  Why would we expect a team $90M under average to spend an average amount? 

     2022 MLB Revenue

[Gamblerssoftball]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm pretty sure they're done and that's the disappointing part. Signing Santana prevents them from signing anyone better. He's probably worth the $5M but that doesn't even buy you an average player anymore.

They've cut payroll 20% from a spending level that wasn't even league average. They'd better spend some of that locking up young players like Jeffers and Duran.

Locking up young players is fine with position players, but I'd pump the brakes on pitchers, especially the flame throwers. With today's velocity and spin rates, it's not a question of if but when the elbow or shoulder succumbs. No more than a couple of years extention, in my book. 

[Linus]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

So, if CS would have been signed by Seattle a month ago for $5M and came to us via the trade, what would people think of the trade because that is essentially what happened. 

I would have thought - Geez the Twins didn’t get what they really needed. You think this deal is the difference maker?

[Nashvilletwin]

49 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Team shouldn’t develop in Minneapolis, develop in St. Paul. He establishes a floor at 1B. “Chances” in the Show come in rebuilding organizations or out of desperation. Santana’s actually better on defense than anyone else we roster……..+11 in one rating & +2 in a second rating.

Can move his salary somewhere at the break if he’s underperforming (via trade or release) or if Miranda - Severino & Co. are pushing their way in to the team.

Better than getting to Spring Training with a clear option v. hoping Miranda can get back to similar production to that of typical Santana. Miranda’s 2022 (his good year) he had a .325 OBP & .751 OPS with 1.0 WAR & 15 HR in 444 AB’s. Santana’s 2023 was a .318 OBP & .747 OPS with 2.7 WAR & 23 HR in 550 AB’s. The WAR is higher because of 110 more AB’s & much better defense. They established a Floor for that role and it matches up favorably - at least level, to Miranda’s 2022.

This and your next post are good takes.  This is a solid floor addition if the production vs. lefties shows up. If not, and the young guys (Miranda, Severino, and even Lee could impact 1B via a Julien move) get hot, then hopefully the FO has the fortitude to make the tough call.

But it doesn’t appear to be a higher ceiling move for which some of us might have hoped. 

[TopGunn#22]

At this point it's disappointing they didn't add someone like Soler.  Big bat, questionable glove in the OF but some serious thump in the middle of the lineup.  Still, there are a lot of positives to signing Santana.  First, he's the anti-Solano.  23 HR's and 86 RBI and the consistent ability to take a walk is everything Solano wasn't. 

Second, he's a good defensive 1B even if he is 38 years old.  Some of us marveled at Solano's ability to play 2B and 1B last year but let's face it, he was a non factor defensively, especially at 2B.  A Solano "cutout" could have played similar defense.  With Julien, Farmer (tony&rodney said he's no longer on the team in a post but he's still on the team right??) Brooks Lee, Castro and more, there's plenty of 2B options.  Santana is very good "Kirilloff Insurance."  

Santana will probably hit as many HR's and drive in as many runs as Duval would have...assuming Duval has a completely healthy year.  One provides good "D" at 1B, the other in the OF.  But Santana always answers the bell.  Duval will probably finish with 350 AB's tops.

I don't think we've seen the end of Julien at 1B either.  Especially once Brooks Lee comes up.  This could mean more Kirilloff in the outfield and with Wallner and Kepler that makes us pretty LH out there.  Especially with Buxton the only true RH option (Castro being a SH).  We could be seeing Austin Martin sooner than we think if Buxton's health falters (which it probably will at some point) and if Martin shows well at St. Paul.

All in all, the Santana signing probably fell a little short for what most of us wanted, but again, 23 HR's and 86 RBI are nothing to scoff at.  Gallo, Solano and Polanco didn't come close to that in 2023.  I'd be thrilled if Kirilloff DID put up 23 HR and 86 RBI.  

 

[roger]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Signing Carlos Santana completes the offseason. He is by all reports a good guy, easy to like, and still hits lefties. The contract fits like a glove. 

In November a vague statement was issued related to payroll, revenue, balance, and an expected "correction." All offseason, including today, there have been articles and posts hopeful of the Twins strengthening the team with a couple of additions. The most common parts mentioned were a starting pitcher to slot in behind Pablo Lopez, a relief pitcher to slot next to Jhoan Duran, a RH hitting outfielder, and possibly a corner infielder. The message was clear that one or more players making above the minimum salary would be traded for salary help. The most common player identified to trade was Jorge Polanco. It is worth a reminder that only the financial hit and an expected trade were hinted at by the Twins. The hopes for other players was merely guesstimates/dreams of fans.

There has been widespread support by many for the Twins moves. A few, especially one efficient poster, have championed everything done by the Twins. I try to always focus on the positives of life. When I look over the transactions it is pretty difficult to ascertain how the Twins improved their squad. I do believe that it is possible for players like Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton, and Kepler to all have much better years than any projections predict. However, this is also a bit Pollyannish. 

The Twins added a nice 32 year old rookie relief pitcher who has had one year of success (no longer a rookie). They added a starting pitcher for the bullpen to start when needed. They added a one time slugging first baseman/DH who should help more as a coach. They signed some players to invite to Florida. They lost Gray, Maeda, Solano, Farmer, and Polanco. I may have missed someone. Correa, Buxton, and the young players have a big chore to make up for all of these guys and improve enough to hold off the other teams in the division. Let's hope they can do it.

The Twins accomplished all of their offseason goals even if those did not include our wishes for the team. The division is still a goal and possible. My biggest disappointment is for those fans who would like to watch Twins games being shut out by the continuing ineptitude of whomever was tasked to handle media in the Twins organization.

Farmer is still with the Twins, Tony.  Isn't he?

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I never understand why posters use Major League Average to measure how aggressively a team is spending.  A team that generated 120% of average revenue should be expected to spend roughly 120% of league average.  The Twins generated 78% of league average in 2022 and might have been a tick higher in 2023 with playoff revenue.  Why would we use major league average to set expectations for a team significantly below average?  To put numbers to this .... The 2022 Washington Nationals were the closest to league average revenue in 2022 at 103%.  They generated $89M more in revenue than the Twins.  Why would we expect a team $90M under average to spend an average amount? 

     2022 MLB Revenue

I guess because Minnesota is an average sized MLB market. The point stands that they're cutting payroll 20% year-on-year and there is no way the team is seeing a 20% drop in revenue. Over half of their revenue comes straight from the league and that isn't decreasing. That would mean a 40% drop in local revenue year on year. They saw a 15% drop in revenue from the TV contract. Are they expecting attendance to collapse?

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

Locking up young players is fine with position players, but I'd pump the brakes on pitchers, especially the flame throwers. With today's velocity and spin rates, it's not a question of if but when the elbow or shoulder succumbs. No more than a couple of years extention, in my book. 

They won't spend on pitchers when they're free agents so their only chance to sign one long-term is before arbitration.

[JoeCool]

Underwhelmed with this addition. I felt this way about Gallo last year. Wasted millions that could be used towards someone who upgrades the roster from the squad last year.  

This might be the time to reload players on this team into different roles.  Perhaps moving Johan Duran to the rotation they can get equal value to what they had in Sonny Gray with upside.  Then Varland can assume his role in the bullpen with his stuff that plays up.  The Twins just don’t have a playoff ready rotation and if unwilling to go after a Jordan Montgomery due to sticker shock this might be the missing part.  

I also am thinking the Twins should trade Max Kepler and trade for Anthony Santander or sign Adam Duvall to get more balanced in the lineup.  

[Linus]

Hmmmm…..he signed for exactly the rest of the Polanco trade savings. I would just like to take this opportunity to thank the Pohlad family for their generous financial support of our local nine. Cue up Dave St Peter complaining about lack of fan support. 

[Fatbat]

8 minutes ago, Linus said:

I would have thought - Geez the Twins didn’t get what they really needed. You think this deal is the difference maker?

It seems like a plausible way to replace the best onfield asset of Polanco.  His bat and possible platoon at 1B.  If Santana flames out tho, it will only be looked at as wasting half of what we did on Gallo. 

[Linus]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

It seems like a plausible way to replace the best onfield asset of Polanco.  His bat and possible platoon at 1B.  If Santana flames out tho, it will only be looked at as wasting half of what we did on Gallo. 

This typifies why I don’t like the trade. We traded away quality and got back quantity. Any free agent signing for $5 million is by definition a nothing sandwich. 

[tony&rodney]

45 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Some people are half full types, and I won't apologize for being one of them. The above is the equivalent of 'half empty' thinking. So the 'nice 32 year old relief pitcher had one year of success' - which happened to be last year, and it was very successful, and done in high leverage situations for a play-off contending team. The one-time slugging first baseman/DH who should help more as a coach' had a WAR last year that would have been third best on the Twins - and he would have led them in RBIs by 20. Given what may be new-found revenue, they also may not be done. Meanwhile, no additional value is provided for what should be full seasons by very productive rookies from last year. Yes, the starting pitching isn't as strong, but you hit as well as pitch. I believe this year's offense will be much improved over last year. All they have to replace offensively is the half year of Polanco and the full year of Taylor, which doesn't strike me as a heavy lift.

You may have missed that I believe in the younger players, Correa, and Buxton. Topa was largely, and quite successfully, used in the 6th inning. You missed that I was pointing out that the Twins had a plan to drastically cut the expenditures and did so. Appreciate your support of the Twins.

[DJL44]

There is a good chance Santana plays more games than Polanco in 2024.

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, roger said:

Farmer is still with the Twins, Tony.  Isn't he?

Yes. Good catch - this was supposed to be Taylor. Farmer is a good player and we still have him.

[Major League Ready]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I guess because Minnesota is an average sized MLB market. The point stands that they're cutting payroll 20% year-on-year and there is no way the team is seeing a 20% drop in revenue. Over half of their revenue comes straight from the league and that isn't decreasing. That would mean a 40% drop in local revenue year on year. They saw a 15% drop in revenue from the TV contract. Are they expecting attendance to collapse?

You are forgetting they had $30M in BAM Money which is 20% of what they spent last year.  More importantly, market size may reflect earning potential, but earning potential does not pay the bills.  If a team in the 12th largest market generates the same amount of revenue as a team in the 18th largest market, they run out of money at the exact same time.  Every adult here knows that a budget is based on income.   This measure is a desperate attempt to come up with something to justify the Twins should spend more.  It makes absolutely no sense and fans know this but use this logic anyway.