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Linus

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Everything posted by Linus

  1. Linus
    Re: headline: No Kidding.
  2. Linus
    These are the dynamics of shopping in the free agency world. There are all kinds of potential pitfalls as very few free agents have no warts. Age is always a factor as most free agents are older and most contracts will include years where production is diminished. Any free agent that is younger or has no warts will be the property of a big market team in short order. If the Twins choose to buy in the free agent marketplace for quality players there will always be risks. If those risks are not acceptable then they simply need to sit out free agency. This would actually be the property strategy if they would simply commit to a soft rebuild and go with their prospects. Most likely is they will continue their past strategy of trying to solidify their floor with low cost vets that get passed over by most clubs. I view this as the least effective strategy.
  3. Linus
    An Arraez at bat is really fun to watch. He’s really, really good at hitting singles. It’s crazy how few strikeouts and walks he has, it’s gotta be almost unprecedented. It’s just not enough.
  4. Linus
    For me, it comes down to are you really trying to win or are you saying you are trying to win as a PR initiative. If you are truly trying to win you don’t care about the draft pick compensation as you have the opportunity to add a hitter better than anyone on your roster currently. If it’s PR talk and you focusing on 28 or 29 you absolutely don’t give up the pick.
  5. Linus
    Let’s say we started the newer guys, added a free agent or two and then played consistently winning baseball, heading towards the playoffs. If this occurred my guess is you would see an uptick in attendance towards the end of the summer with better attendance next year. To get back to 2.5+ million is going to require a couple years of playoff baseball.
  6. Linus
    Call me a cynic but I’m calling BS on the defensive metrics. We’ve seen previous examples where they ying-yang all over the place in a given year. Common sense tells you that it is near impossible to consistently rate a poor fielder over the course of years and suddenly he’s great. Did he get demonstrably quicker and faster? Seems unlikely at age 29 and that’s what it would take for him to improve that much in such a short period of time.
  7. Linus
    I believe the budget will allow for one impact bat and 1 or 2 decent relievers. Would you rather re-sign Jeffers if it meant you can’t sign another impact bat? I like Jeffers a bunch but due to position and Twins philosophy he will be a part time player - probably 60 ish percent of games. For that money I want a bat that will play most games. I would rather sign Lowe to play second and then transition to first when / if Houston gets to the show. Obviously I would love to have both but I’m trying to be realistic here.
  8. Linus
    This is a thought provoking post. First, I had forgotten about Faucher - man the Twins have let a bunch of good relief pitchers slip between their fingers. That’s a problem. Second, I appreciate the observations about Opportunity Cost. Many times roster decisions are judged solely by what happened which is a limited analysis. Opportunity Cost is useful in that it incorporates the idea of what could have happened in order to fully evaluate the value of a given decision. In other words, what was the value difference between the best decision available and the decision that you made. There can be many layers to this. In the case of Berrios, the trade return was likely not optimal but they also received the value of not paying him the $117 million required to extend him. Ostensibly that money was used to obtain other value. Anyway, I appreciate the discussion.
  9. Linus
    This will be an unpopular opinion but I would bring Wallner back in a very specific way. He will not play the field and he will have to earn DH appearances next year (I believe he has one option left). Here’s why: you are not going to get anything in trade. The chance that he figures it out, however small, is much more valuable than an A ball lottery ticket as his ceiling is high. The 40 man isn’t an issue as they have guys all over the place that can be removed. The odds of Wallner figuring it out are not good. If he does, the reward is substantial.
  10. Linus
    To me, this article is illustrative of why the Twins are in this position - poor FO decision making. They correctly chose to trade Berrios but didn’t get appropriate value back. They incorrectly chose to hang onto Ryan and will, again, not get appropriate value back. These two situations alone, with good outcomes, would have a dramatic effect on the current roster.
  11. Linus
    A truer indicator of his hitting ability is AA performance; the AFL just doesn’t mean much. I try not to worry about prospect age too much and focus more on “are they still improving”. Unfortunately, DeBarge is looking suspect in both of those measurements. Hoping for a hot start with the bat next year as he does have other tools.
  12. Linus
    Ron Perenowski (sp) also pitched many multiple innings games as a precursor to the modern day closer.
  13. Linus
    If, a few years ago when he was with the Twins, you would have told me a 35 year old Pagan would be turning down a $10 million player option I would have called the local authorities. The thing that jumps out to me is how few innings he has pitched over the last few seasons. I would pass and look for a younger option.
  14. Linus
    Good info - thanks. Possibly Jackson otherwise no.
  15. Linus
    Between the small sample sizes and watered down pitching the AFL isn’t really an indicator of performance going forward. It’s great the players are getting the extra reps but that’s really how it should be viewed.
  16. Linus
    I like the Henry Davis idea. We already know the floor - good defender, struggling withe bat. If he hits even a little going forward you have a youngish valuable player going forward.
  17. Linus
    Correct. This is just me speculating which is worth the digital ink spilled to write this but my guess is, like you, if Jeffers accepts that will largely be it on the position side. Cross our fingers for a bullpen add but that’s about it. Catching has been a bad habit this franchise can’t shake.
  18. Linus
    Are you asking what I think will happen if he accepts the QO?
  19. Linus
    I like the overall philosophy. Add a bat and some relievers which gives us a chance this year and builds towards the future.
  20. Linus
    To me, this is the issue. If Jeffers accepts I think that will be it for spending on position players this off season. There are others I would rather have.
  21. Linus
    Is the QO an option a player is opting out of a longer term contract? I can’t recall ever seeing that.
  22. Linus
    Nope. Spend the money on a big bat, a decent catcher and a good reliever.
  23. Linus
    This my concern. I think it is a reasonable assumption the Twins will add one position player to a sizable contract including Jeffers. If this is true, there are other players I would rather have than Jeffers.
  24. Linus
    Agreed - I think Lowe is the best fit (I would love Bauers but doubt they would pull the trigger). I want Royce on the club because I want to take a flyer on his bat one more time but he is on the bench for me unless he beats out Clemens. Good job on this - it’s realistic and gives them a shot to win 83-84 ish games especially with one more reliever.
  25. Linus
    This is basically what I would do except Clemens would be at first and Royce on the bench and I would sign an AJ Minter level reliever for the bullpen. I like Lowe because if Houston forces his way in the lineup at some point next year Lowe can slide over to first.
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