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About singlesoverwalks

  • Birthday 02/21/1976

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  1. I have figured out the Twins' strategy on pitching. (Clears throat.) Never spend big money on pitching. Small money on multi-year contracts is good. They'll do that (Maeda, Dobnak). They'll do medium-big one-year money (qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi). But if you won't sign José Berríos at what he was willing to sign for, you simply will never sign any big-money pitcher to a multi-year deal. So, from this list, I would predict the Twins sign Michael Pineda.
  2. My personal hobby horse is that the Twins' problem isn't that they don't draft good players. It's that they don't usually do a good job developing the players they do draft. Too many players get better after they leave the Twins.
  3. This is not at all meant as a disparaging comment: I think managing his weight better would help him. He has performed best when his weight has been lowest. I think he goes home in the off season, eats too much home cooking and maybe has too many beers with his Dominican League buddies, and loses his edge. His agent should hire the man a personal chef and personal trainer in the Dominican Republic if necessary.
  4. There was obviously a market there that we could have taken advantage of. It was just a failure to manage the logistics of getting that many trades done on the part of the front office. They're focused on their own baseball genius, not on the management side of things. The more glamorous Berrios and Cruz trades captured their attention, and then they ran out of time. A good manager would have delegated most of the legwork to some assistant GM; take what you can get and move on. It's the usual B effort from this current GM. The Nationals and Cubs are good examples of better run front offices in sell mode. They got their work done.
  5. Trade Cruz and any other one-year veterans you can unload for some blazing minor league arms, sign some free agents, cross your fingers and hope the pieces fall into place (like Ober, Maeda, and Dobby get better, some current prospects work out, etc.). It has worked before. The best strategy in MLB, if you're not going to have a $200 million payroll, is often to be good enough to have a chance at contending.
  6. I guess it feels like trading Berrios for minor-league pitchers is almost certainly giving up on 2022. It seems really unlikely that you would get starting pitching that would be better than Berrios would be in 2022. Once in a while you'll get a John Smoltz or Dwight Gooden who is an ace starting pitcher as a rookie, but it's really rare. Here are the only rookie pitchers who are better than Berrios in terms of Fangraphs WAR this year: Trevor Rogers (MIA) at 2.8 WAR, Ian Anderson (ATL) at 1.9 WAR. Berrios is at 1.8 WAR. In the last full season, 2019, there was no rookie starting pitcher who equaled Berrios's 4.3 WAR. So, it's possible to improve, but you would have to make a really good trade and probably get lucky. The most likely way you end up with a better pitcher than the 2022 Berrios is if Berrios gets injured, which is certainly possible, but then it's just as likely that the rookie replacement gets injured. If we don't need hitters for 2022 (I'm skeptical about that, but maybe it's true), then I might hold Berrios rather than trading. Maybe we can trade Nelson Cruz and Michael Pineda for some good 2022 arms (probably bullpen arms - it think it's more common to find rookies who can handle relief roles), put them together with Berrios and some free agents (not that 2021 has given us much reason to believe in our ability to find pitching via free agency), and have enough pitching to contend in 2022. Or, maybe we need to give up on 2022 and trade Berrios for a vanload of great low minors pitching prospects.
  7. We're certainly going to need a DH, because Cruz will be traded. Sanó might be that DH, but boy, I dunno. Larnach could be the DH, but then we do have an opening in the outfield.
  8. You don't have to get only low minors prospects for a top-30 starting pitcher. The Twins' model for a Berríos trade should be the Cleveland trade of Trevor Bauer (boooo) for Franmil Reyes + other prospects last year. Reyes was already in the majors with San Diego and performing well at the time, and he still has plenty of years left until arbitration.
  9. Obviously my constructive criticism motivated Kepler to find a way to contribute. So I'm happy.
  10. Kepler has been utterly lost all season, and most of last, when not injured.
  11. Right now, and maybe this is short-term thinking, I would rather have Eddie Rosario under contract than Max Kepler.
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