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GNess

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Everything posted by GNess

  1. GNess
    A question arises - deal lewis or Larnach? Here is one way to look at this: Lewis' production at the plate has really diminished for whatever reason(s). He likely has very limited asset value in terms of a trade at deadline. Larnach is looking like he may have ascended to a higher level in terms of production at the plate so he may have decent trade value at the deadline. (Likely above that of Lewis.) The trend lines would suggest that Larnach would likely have greater production value for the remainder of this season and next season. The Twins would be surrendering that value in trading Larnach if whatever minor leaguers coming up to replace him don't produce near his level. The immediate value of player(s) in a theoretical Larnach trade is likely to be limited, but they may offer some future value. A Lewis trade offers less risk of losing the immediate value at the plate given his now two + season slump and injury issues. The present version of Lewis seems easier to replace. Neither of these players offers much defensively. If Lewis could net even a limited return the Twins probably should do that instead of dealing a player like Larnach.
  2. GNess
    I agree with the basic premise of this well written article. I would also add Rojas to the list of untouchables given he is a LH with legit SP potential. Of course, you have to give something to get something and the Twins can't cling to all of their Top 30 prospects.
  3. GNess
    What about Robbie Ray? He is stlll an effective SP - close enough by results to the four cited. I don't think the asking price would be too high and there is no contractual commitment beyond this season. For the younger Twins to experience a real fight for a playoff spot would have some value in their development. Ray could help this effort.
  4. GNess
    Trades don't take place in a vacuum. - they always have some impact. even if it's just a matter of trying to influence your fan base in some direction. MLB teams make trades - they are part of the process, but trades are inherently risky and sometimes (many times?) don't turn out favorably. Consider that many on TD say the Twins aren't "real" contenders in 2026. What if they hadn't traded away one or both current all star relievers (Duran, Varland) which would go a long ways in bolstering a Twins bullpen which has been shaky and a significant reason the team is trailing by 3 games rather than possibly being in the lead in the division - that might change the narrative around contender status.
  5. GNess
    If you give AB's / opportunities to your 13th "ranked" position player you are taking them directly away from someone who is higher in the pecking order. (Or this player could be described as 5th best OFer out of 5.) Finding ways to keep your best lineups on the field as often as possible seems to be driving this. Seems quite rational to me.
  6. GNess
    With a W in the series finale the Twins would be no worse than 3 GB in the division at the AS Break. Count me as pleasantly surprised.
  7. GNess
    Additional consideration: The Twins are at present 2 GB for 1st in the division and 1 GB in the wildcard. Is throwing in the towel on this season by trading away an all-star level pitcher (yes a big asset) really the prudent move at this point.
  8. GNess
    This is a well covered topic, but here is a fundamental point of trading: The team giving up the proven asset (Jeffers/Ryan etc) for. prospects must be particularly adept at assessing potential and development. It is inherently riskier to give up the known for the less certain. I am a bit concerned about comparing what the Brewers do (timely trading proven assets for potential) without knowing how they do it (that is, there ability to evaluate, develop, project) Knowing that fortune follows the brave, I understand why the Twins need to take such risks, but it is not close to certain it will work out.
  9. GNess
    I am an "old timer" and I really enjoy this approach. The group has good rapport.
  10. GNess
    Trading from an area of strength/surplus is often the best manner to leverage trades into roster improvement rather than just for the sake of change or many of the other reasons team trade players. Caratini's offensive numbers with the Twins roughly fit his career norms so he is likely be a solid option for the season and a half for which he is under contract. Jackson if his recent production can be trusted to hold would be a solid 1B / # 2 catcher. Jeffers becomes a valued asset on the trade market, but it's a risk giving up one of the best hitting catchers in MLB because before his injury he was really producing. I guess it would be a sell high sort of deal given the Twins probably wouldn't pay him to keep him.
  11. GNess
    The Twins are scoring runs. if the bullpen was a bit better it's possible they could finish above .500 and challenge for. a playoff berth.
  12. GNess
    Each player's development is different, but if Jenkins is what many say he is (elite) hundreds of more AB's in AAA is not likely going to do much for him. He is currently putting up pretty good numbers at St Paul. Many Twins have dominated AAA like Wallner who have serious issues succeeding vs MLB pitching. Plus, the idea of current Twins on the roster are ahead of Jenkins and are in essence blocking his path to the Twins doesn't make sense either for an elite prospect. Who could possibly be blocking him from the Twins collection of current corner OF?
  13. GNess
    The rotation has been a bright spot for the Twins and a key factor in that they remain in contention for the division and/or a WC berth. An improving, consistent Prielipp further strengthens the starting group.
  14. GNess
    Yes, but it is anecdotal such as the Marlins trading away Miguel Cabrera for a host of prospects that never really worked out, the same for Yelich to the Brewers and some would argue the Twins did not get enough for Johan Santana. Of course there are examples of the reverse occurring. Your point though is understood.
  15. GNess
    I didn't mean to rant.
  16. GNess
    Yes, trading away current assets at the MLB level for prospects who might be productive MLB players is what teams do. The success rate of. doing this is spotty and often leads to multiple losing seasons. The Twins have a bunch of prospects already - trading for more is just a sign that the club doesn't trust they'll be able to count on them to become productive, winning players. Of course, standing pat and holding on to players that are playing significant roles for a losing team likely doesn't seem wise either. Many agreed with the strip mining like trade off at last year's deadline, Where did that get the Twins? The bullpen was a strength and is now an unreliable, morale-killing mess. And building bullpens was posited by many on TD that bullpens can be stocked rather easily. Many suggest the Twins have a surplus of corner OF. Of those on the roster only Larnach is really producing. The much heralded group at St Paul are underperforming (Gonzalez) and/or are injured and stalled. (Jenkins, Rodriguez) I see that Keaschall played in RF. Martin's hot start has faded. On the infield we have witnessed an absurd array of position shifting in a few short months: Lee from SS - 3B, Lewis from 3B -1B, Keaschall from 2B - RF. Gray UTL- 3B - SS, Kriedler from Tigers cast off to SS/CF. Clemens was the 1B now he is UTL / OF. The Twins actually have only 3 players who would likely bring back prospects that might be upper end prospects. (Buxton, Ryan and Jeffers.) These three basically. constitute the Twins' core assets. Trading any of these three while seeming prudent to some is a symptom of organizational failure on a grand scale. The Twins aren't likely going to be able to trade their way to competitive relevance by surrendering their best players leaving behind a depleted MLB roster that can't compete and a slew of unproven hopefuls in the minors. But I guess we can focus on trading as the primary instrument the Twins have for improving their roster when their general non-participation in meaningful free agency is the real missing component.
  17. GNess
    Given Buxton's loyalty, leadership, offensive production and defensive prowess slight/moderate decline in his throwing ability is hardly a reason to consider moving him out of CF. This is especially true since there are no obvious replacements ready to take over short term and possibly through the 2026 season.. I believe I heard on a broadcast that Buxton had said he wants to play CF until the Twins have someone who can play it better than he can.
  18. GNess
    Hypothetically what if the Twins close the gap behind the ChiSox and Guards and in so doing take the lead for one fo the Wild Card spots by the deadline? Do you still trade off current assets because you can possibly get future value from the return on players like Ryan and Jeffers? It is understood earning a playoff berth or being in real contention for one. doesn't make a team a true contender, but it has to have some value to the organization and fanbase.
  19. GNess
    Agree with your premise of the likely success rate for this group of players. However, other players in the system or those added from the outside could emerge to challenge them for playing opportunities. When projecting ahead even just one season there are almost always new variables that change the paradigm.
  20. GNess
    Fedko has produced for a while in the minors. Happy for him that he is getting a chance, but it makes me wonder why he has had to wait so long given the lack of Twins OF,.other than Buxton producing consistently the past few seasons.
  21. GNess
    If the Twins pick up where they left off from last year's trade deadline and consider any players of some value as assets to be dealt for prospects when do they break out of that cycle? When do they start focusing on accumulating productive Major League assets of their own that they actually hold on to, who help them win? The hit rate on prospects is not that strong for many MLB decision-makers. Dealing assets en masse results in problem areas for the team. Exhibit # 1 The dumpster fire that is the Twins 2026 bullpen. Clemens is under control through the 2028 season. Twins might make productive use of him down the line.
  22. GNess
    Here are a few key considerations: What did the FO tell Lewis when they sent him down? What did they want him to improve/prove? If a player is going to be something of a defensive liability which most assume Lewis would be for the short/medium term at 1B given his lack of experience - he has to hit and produce at the plate! Is he more ready tø ∂ø so after a handful of games at St Paul? The outcome of the Lewis saga will have a serious impact on the Twins.. He is now teetering on the verge of being a bust.
  23. GNess
    Nice article advocating an opportunistic approach. However, how do the Twins improve by trying to obtain a SP who can't hold down a spot in the Pirates rotation? At best he is their # 6 starter.. It is clear to me the Pirates at long last are positioned to have an above .500 record, but they are still the Pirates and the thought of there being a surplus of SP doesn't seem to add up.
  24. GNess
    The injuries to SP and the general mediocrity of the Bull Pen have been too much for this team to overcome the past week. Hoping it is not signs of things to come, but I suspect it likely is just that.
  25. GNess
    It is understood that lower budget teams and under performing teams trade off their veteran assets at the deadline for a collection of prospects in the future hope that these prospects will produce a winner down the line. However, the success rate with this strategy (or formula) is mixed at best. It requires an ability to evaluate, project and develop young talent. It is open for debate that the Twins can successfully execute such a strategy, in particular the development piece. Many clubs are resistant to trading away their best players and maintain a core to. build around. I would argue that Ryan if he is interested in staying with the Twins as a core asset going forward the Twins should find a way to pay him. (The new CBA will hopefully enforce a much higher floor for salary spending per team.)
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