4 Options for the Twins at First Base if Alex Kirilloff Can't Go

[Nick Nelson]

Here are some of the internal and external options the Twins could consider at first base for 2024 in the event that Alex Kirilloff's recovery from shoulder surgery extends into next season.

Image courtesy of Bill Streicher, Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Kirilloff is slated for labrum repair surgery in his right shoulder, and the Twins won't know a timeline until after the procedure takes place next week. Considering the nature of this type of significant surgery, there is a decent chance that his recovery will carry over into the 2024 season. 

At the very least, the Twins need to be thinking very seriously about what the short-term (and perhaps long-term) picture looks like at first base in AK's absence. Here are a few paths they could take this offseason to ensure the position is in good hands for next year.

Re-sign Donovan Solano

Perhaps the simplest answer. Signed for $2 million at the start of spring training, Solano proved to be a key fixture for the Twins. He led the team in starts at first base (64), and was a solid contributor with his .369 OBP and 110 OPS+. If the Twins wanted to run it back, they could probably do so on another inexpensive one-year deal. 

But, even if you're envisioning the solution at first base is somewhat of a stopgap, don't you want to aim higher? Solano turns 36 this offseason, has no power, and was not terribly impressive defensively. By almost any value-based metric he was a below-average player. He also left a bad taste in all our mouths by striking out three times in the elimination game against Houston.

Donnie Barrels, your service is appreciated, but I think it's best for both sides to move on.

Sign a different free agent first baseman

Of course, there are plenty of other fish in the sea of free agency. But trust me when I say that this year's first base class is not very appealing. There's not really a star-caliber player in the bunch, unless you are targeting someone like Cody Bellinger or Jeimer Candelario as a first baseman. Rhys Hoskins is a slugger who'd look good in the middle of the Twins lineup, but he missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL suffered in the spring. 

Otherwise the pool consists of a bunch of older fading players who can hardly be trusted to be offer much more than Solano. 

Trade for a first baseman

Trades are the more interesting avenue for outside additions, if you're looking for a real difference-maker at first base. Two names stand out as potential targets: Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt. 

Alonso is an elite power hitter who fits with the offensive profile that Minnesota remains committed to. He's entering his last year ahead of arbitration and the woebegone Mets could seek to cash in rather than lose him for nothing. (Not to mention clear salary in pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.)

Goldschmidt is coming off a relative down year, and entering his final season under contract at age 36. He's the kind of experienced veteran icon (and recent MVP) who would add another layer of respected leadership in the clubhouse. But he has a no-trade clause, and may prefer to stay in St. Louis even if their contention outlook is uncertain.

An exciting big splash like Alonso or Goldschmidt would emphatically address first base for next year while keeping options open long-term. But either player would cost a ton to acquire. Is it worth it when you can turn to the following option?

Solve for the problem internally

Jose Miranda. Remember that guy? Okay, his own shoulder isn't looking like much of a sure thing either, but he remains a very relevant name on Minnesota's first base depth chart. And there are other players on hand who could aptly fill in at first base, at least on an interim basis.

Edouard Julien got a couple of starts at first late in the 2023 season, and while the team seemed resistant to using him there much, they might feel differently if they can bring him along in spring training and let him own the position. This would of course open up second for Jorge Polanco, so it makes sense. Maybe Miranda or minor-league slugger Yunior Severino, who hit 35 home runs at AA/AAA this year, could plug in as a platoon bat alongside Julien.

Another option: turn the keys over to Brooks Lee, who hasn't played first base yet as a pro but could almost certainly handle the assignment. This would open the door for Minnesota's top prospect to step in alongside the young nucleus. 

If the Twins (understandably) want Lee to get a little more seasoning in Triple-A, where he admittedly hasn't dominated yet, they can keep this idea in their back pocket. But the 22-year-old should be viewed as another depth piece in the first base equation.

With all of these internal options being on the table, and with Kirilloff still being part of the plan at some point, I find it hard to believe the Twins will allocate major resources to a blockbuster addition at first base. If an opportunity materializes for someone like Alonso or Goldschmidt, the front office should definitely see it through. But they've got enough ready-made depth on hand that they should not feel overly pressured to add here, from my view. 

What do you think? What would be your plan at first base this offseason?

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[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Falvey and Levine usually have at least one surprise move in the off-season. Wouldn't be shocked if the opening day first baseman is someone that no one saw coming.

[weitz41]

Alonso certainly fits what the FO covets. I was surprised at how little baseball trade values puts on his trade value. Goldschmit as well. I'd be thrilled with either. That being said, there are too many young players looking for a place to play in the field. I'd put a trade as a luxury item rather than a needed addition.

Hoskins and Bellinger will likely get QO and be very expensive. Candelario would an interesting addition. 

[Patzky]

When you put it that way, ride Solano into May when it's time to bring up Lee. (Or return AK?)

[Doctor Gast]

I'd go internally, some people's idea is that anyone can play 2B & 1B is complicated. Although 1B isn't as simple as some people think, it can easily be learned yet at 2B you need someone with a lot of range along with athleticism which can't be taught. Julien is better off at 1B & should be played there and leave 2B to Polanco, Lewis, Lee, Martin, or Castro. I'd like to give Miranda a shot some time because I think he can bounce back & mash so he can improve his value.

[arby58]

For all the interest in playing Brooks Lee out of position, Yunior Severino deserves more discussion. While he has primarily been a second or third baseman, he did play `first base in 15 games for St. Paul. While they are different types of hitters, they put up similarly good numbers with both spending about the same amount of time last year between AA and AAA. Lee had 39 more plate appearances, but they scored a similar number of runs (83 for Lee, 80 for Severino), and both had 84 RBIs. Lee hits far more doubles (39 versus 17) and Severino far more home runs (35 versus 16). They draw a similar number of walks (56 for Lee, 51 for Severino). Severino strikes out a lot more (173 versus 91), but his OPS is also significantly higher. I suppose a cynic would say that Severino's strike out rate makes him a natural for the Twins, but if he can replicate those power numbers . . . He's also just 23 years old (Lee is 22), so both should have promising futures for the Twins or elsewhere.

[saviking]

Or Byron Buxton?

[Trov]

Depending on the cost I could see a trade for Alonzo or Goldschmidt, but find neither likely.  If I had to pick I would trade for Goldschmidt, but I think they will go internal options.  I could see Serverino getting a shot, Julien sliding over and giving Lee 2nd, or trying Miranda over there if he is healthy.  It was not long ago we though high on him, but he clearly was not healthy last year. I think there are too many internal options to really go out and make a big move. 

[Karbo]

Send Julian to play winter ball at 1st base. Let him get some real reps there. Re-sign Solano as a RH platoon if Miranda isn't ready yet. That gives the kids in the minors more time to get some reps at 1st. Sometime in late May or early June make a move from AAA if it isn't working.

[IndianaTwin]

I think there are enough internal options, but the obvious advantage of pursuing Bellinger is that you also have your CF insurance for Buxton. 

[chpettit19]

Sliding Lee all the way down the defensive spectrum doesn't feel like the right move. Of course he could always move back up the spectrum, but, generally speaking, you want to keep your big time prospect playing as high up on the spectrum as you can. I think it'd be far more likely they move Julien to 1B and give Lee 2B before they'd do it the other way around.

My plan would be to explore the trade options for an elite bat that I could plug into the 3/4 hole and never have to think about them. I expect that to be a combination of too expensive and there not to be options with multiple years of control available so the cost isn't worth it (Alonso is going to get paid after next year and I doubt the Twins are the ones who want to pay him). Since I don't see a long-term answer, and don't believe the Twins have quality depth to be making trades for 1 year guys, I don't expect a trade.

Because of that I'd go with a Solano type signing (cheap veteran who can be replaced if they don't perform or a young guy beats them out), and giving Miranda (I still think he's an MLBer, but was never going to be a star), Severino, Julien, Lee, Martin, and Kirilloff's shoulder the chance to battle it out for the spots on the right side of the infield.

[Nashvilletwin]

Use our trade capital or cash on pitching - we still need at least a #2 starter and could probably use an inning eating #5-6 type to hedge Paddack and Varland (why do Gray and Maeda just seem to still fit those roles so well?).  Filling those two slots is our biggest priority.

So we should go internal at 1B.  Lots of options and the solution could very well be dynamic over the course of the season. A lot will depend on AK’s health and how Severino, Lee (who should never be a 1B) and Miranda look coming out of spring training and early in the season. We still have too many position players chasing too few spots - so we have the necessary depth to cover it even without Solano (and Polanco if that’s the case) coming back.

Btw, nice job Nick not mentioning JG as an option. Geez, I hope that ship has left port never to return.

[pierre75275]

I think Julien is the way to go. Let him face lefties also, maybe pinch hit for him late in the game.

Miranda or Severino can be the short side platoon.

Then go out and sign one of Hader or Snell and Montas on a pillow contract

[cooldude]

I like the idea of picking up Polanco's option and having him make a Carew-like shift to 1B since he's getting older and less athletic than he used to be, and because the consensus seems to be that Julien has turned himself into a good (good enough?) second baseman to leave him there. Polanco-Julien-Correa-Lewis would be a helluva infield.

[HrbieFan]

Unless the Cards will take a package of Miranda and a couple 15-25 ranked prospects, I'm staying in house. Options include: resign Solano as part of a platoon, give Larnach a 1B glove now, slide Julien, keep Farmer, or give Chris Williams a shot. Maybe Williams can be our version of Christian Walker.  

[roger]

Have a feeling the FO isn't putting a lot of time thinking about this situation right now.  Expect they are focused on, 1) Do they extend Polo or Kepler; 2) resigning Gray, or extending a QO if he doesn't; 3) Resigning Maeda; 4) Talking to Taylor about a contract; 5) Same with Pagan who merits bringing back.  .

That's a lot on their table, especially with Levine away in Boston exploring his opportunities.  First base becomes more urgent after AK has his surgery, or not.  At that time the docs will be able to tell them what is involved with his recovery.

[Road trip]

Brooks Lee has a good chance to be a great MLB player....someday.  While he breezed through A and AA, he certainly did not dominate AAA.  It wasn't a huge sample size but a .738 OPS at AAA indicates to me that he needs more time in the minors to adjust to the MLB-quality breaking balls he hasn't previously faced much.  Maybe he's ready in June, maybe later. 

Moving Lee to 1B this spring would negate one of his greatest attributes (middle infield defense) and move him all the way down the defensive spectrum where we HOPE he is ready to hit MLB pitching?  No thanks...  plenty of other internal options or cheap free agent signings to hold the spot until Kirilloff is healed.

 

[JD-TWINS]

Larnach seems as extreme as we can go but maybe worth a shot.

Julien & Solano to start the year makes sense. Kirilloff by June. Sign Polanco & potentially trade in July if Julien is hitting & Lee seems ready.

Miranda, IMO, has about a 10% chance to play for us again.

To me, Kirilloff is our 1B going forward ……assuming health. We have OF covered with athletic OF’s.

[John Belinski]

I always assumed that 1st base was one of easiest spots to play so Twins should have no problem moving another player to play 1st base. 

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

When you put it that way, ride Solano into May when it's time to bring up Lee. (Or return AK?)

I agree.  I think the original comments on Donnie Bats sold him short.  Let's not forget the amazing play he made to end a playoff win against Toronto and his hitting was steady.  I see him as a solid utility guy for next year.  I think Julien may be the best bet ONLY if Kiriloff is not good to go.

[Patzky]

14 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I agree.  I think the original comments on Donnie Bats sold him short.  Let's not forget the amazing play he made to end a playoff win against Toronto and his hitting was steady.  I see him as a solid utility guy for next year.  I think Julien may be the best bet ONLY if Kiriloff is not good to go.

Anecdotally the team seemed to hit better overall when he was in the lineup (if the alternative was Gallo not shocked) and his at bats seemed to yield timely hits and walks. Also anecdotally Michael Taylor started 'big innings' of Three or four runs with the same.. walks or good at bats. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think it'd be far more likely they move Julien to 1B and give Lee 2B before they'd do it the other way around.

That would make my brain hurt less.

[jccracraft]

100% stay in house. Kiriloff has too much upside. He had a decent year, and continues to show flashes of being elite.

[PDX Twin]

1 hour ago, pierre75275 said:

Then go out and sign one of Hader or Snell and Montas on a pillow contract

What does this mean? Mike Lindell is paying the salary?

[Brandon]

Solano gives us a good floor for first base while AK is out and Miranda, Julien, and Severino can get opportunities there if they earn them.  

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

Or Byron Buxton?

No one's going to move a Gold Glove CF to 1B just in the name of health. 

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

7 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

What does this mean? Mike Lindell is paying the salary?

In case you're being serious (though the Lindell joke is funny), a pillow contract is a 1-year deal where the player looks to recoup his value in the hopes of springboarding into a larger contract the following offseason. Gallo's contract this past season counted as a pillow contract, though he definitely didn't regain value this year. 

[jmlease1]

I think some of it depends on how long into the season the twins think Kirilloff's recovery might go. (and this is presuming already that he won't be ready in spring training, which we're way too early to actually know)

I suspect that if the Twins are sure that Kirilloff is going to miss time well into May or longer, they'll make an attempt at a veteran signing on the cheap (like they did with Solano this year) to provide insurance and not spend their depth at the start of the season. That's not unreasonable, and it worked out fairly well with Solano who got on base and showed good contact skills, even if there was little pop left in his bat and he wasn't particularly good defensively. I do think this FO likes to keep the floor high and I agree with the methodology of giving as few ABs to bad players as possible.

But unless the recovery for Kirilloff is going to be really lengthy (i.e., extending well into the summer), I think the better choice is to look internally. There's some assumption of risk there, but if you have Julien prepare in the off-season to play at 1B (while still working at 2B) and do the same with Miranda (while still having him work at 3B) and Severino...I think there are enough options in-house to cover things. Heck Chris Williams could come back on a minor-league deal (giving him an extra $100K probably keeps him in the organization and doesn't break the bank one bit) and be an option.

And frankly, I think I'd rather go this way even if Kirilloff's recovery is going to go well into the season. Why? because I do think this FO is a bit prone to the sunk-cost fallacy when it comes to veteran players. (most teams are, so I'm not bagging on them that much for it) Look at how Gallo managed to stick on the roster for the full year. What I don't want to see is them taking a flyer on a vet who turns out to be washed up, but sticks around long past the sell date because there's no need for the roster spot yet, and they keep hoping he'll figure it out, blah blah blah regressioncakes. I'd rather give the chances on the younger guys. Miranda has shown flashes of serious talent. Julien deserves to play every day. Severino has been hitting the snot out of the ball in the minors and could be an interesting hitting talent (gotta love switch-hitters on the bench!).

[Patzky]

11 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

What does this mean? Mike Lindell is paying the salary?

Haha. Hope they don't stay cool at night. It doesn't warm up until June in the AL central.

[jjswol]

I have nothing against Solano but he should only be a fill-in and no the regular first baseman. Pete Alonso would be too expensive I think and Goldshmidt will be 37 next year and would only be a stop gap. I think a healthy Miranda would be the answer as I am concerned that Kirilloff might not ever be  healthy enough to play every day. Would love for him to prove me wrong but..... In addition, the Twins payroll comes into play with both Alonso and Goldschmidt, particularly the latter.