4 Options for the Twins at First Base if Alex Kirilloff Can't Go

[Mike Sixel]

49 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Time for my annual reminder that we moved on from Eddie Rosario to make room for Kirilloff & Larnach.  Still waiting on adequate return.

 

What does this serve at all at this point? How is it relevant to this thread? Move on. Please. Or start a new thread where you post it over and over. 

[sun]

I'm all in on Severino. 3B's can make an easy transition to 1B. We need the power & to save money . Sometimes there's nothing better than a hungry kid to make a splash in the bigs by wanting to prove himself. When doors close on the Twins then another one opens. We'll still have Farmer & other options.  This kid may be another Rosario. 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Time for my annual reminder that we moved on from Eddie Rosario to make room for Kirilloff & Larnach.  Still waiting on adequate return.

In 2022, Rosario's OPS was .587. This year he 'improved' to .755. If this is what you aspire, it isn't much.

[MplsFan]

The offense needs an upgrade and 1st seems like one of the few spots you could try to accomplish this.  Go external and get a veteran bat.

[sun]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

In 2022, Rosario's OPS was .587. This year he 'improved' to .755. If this is what you aspire, it isn't much.

I'm refering to the Rosario in his prime when he was an RBI machine. In 2017 - 19 he hit 27, 24, & 32 HR's & had 77, 78 & 109 RBI's. IMO you're guilty of having a selective memory. 

Severino may be able to provide the type of power that Gallo promised,. Having a legit HR threat in the batting order could force pitchers to pitch to our hitters in front of him or put him on base. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosared01.shtml

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Time for my annual reminder that we moved on from Eddie Rosario to make room for Kirilloff & Larnach.  Still waiting on adequate return.

 

Not that Eddie Rosario plays 1B, or anything, but since leaving the Twins he's accumulated 0.6 bWAR over three seasons while making $26M.

While Larnach hasn't managed to solidify his place in MLB, he's still generated 2.0 bWAR in MLB for the Twins over the same time period, while making less than 1/10th of the salary and playing 40% less. Kirilloff's injuries have really held him back from being a significant contributor, but he's been roughly as valuable as Eddie Rosario (Kirilloff had 0.7 bWAR) over this same 3-year stretch, while making the same kind of money as Larnach.

So let's review: the Twins got 4 times more value out of Larnach and Kirilloff over the last 3 years (combined they played roughly the same number of games as Rosario) while saving $20M in payroll (to date). And now we have room on the roster for Matt Wallner, who played roughly half a season and was more productive (2.2 bWAR) than Rosario has been in any season since 2018, and more productive in half a season that Rosario has been in the last 3 combined seasons.

So yes, there's been adequate return: we have more than replaced Rosario's production. What we haven't gotten yet is superior performance from Larnach or Kirilloff, but there's still time and if Kirilloff gets healthy it's quite likely that he surpasses Rosario's production next season.

But hey, I would expect Atlanta to decline the club option on Eddie for 2024, so he'll be available.

[jmlease1]

sigh. duplicate!

I do think the best and most likely options to protect against Kirilloff not being ready to start the season are internal ones.

Edited October 19, 2023 by jmlease1
double post

[sun]

In Aug,, 2022 the Twins traded #7 prospect Spencer Steer plus 2 other prospects to the Reds for Tyler Mahle. This past season Steer played 156 games at 1B for the Reds hitting 23 HR's, 86 RBI's, .271 BA, .356 OBP..

Too bad the Twins didn't benefit much from that trade at all. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/steersp01.shtml

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, sun said:

In Aug,, 2022 the Twins traded #7 prospect Spencer Steer plus 2 other prospects to the Reds for Tyler Mahle. This past season Steer played 156 games at 1B for the Reds hitting 23 HR's, 86 RBI's, .271 BA, .356 OBP..

Too bad the Twins didn't benefit much from that trade at all. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/steersp01.shtml

 

What's the point of this? It's done. In the past. 

[TwinsAce]

23 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Not that Eddie Rosario plays 1B, or anything, but since leaving the Twins he's accumulated 0.6 bWAR over three seasons while making $26M.

While Larnach hasn't managed to solidify his place in MLB, he's still generated 2.0 bWAR in MLB for the Twins over the same time period, while making less than 1/10th of the salary and playing 40% less. Kirilloff's injuries have really held him back from being a significant contributor, but he's been roughly as valuable as Eddie Rosario (Kirilloff had 0.7 bWAR) over this same 3-year stretch, while making the same kind of money as Larnach.

So let's review: the Twins got 4 times more value out of Larnach and Kirilloff over the last 3 years (combined they played roughly the same number of games as Rosario) while saving $20M in payroll (to date). And now we have room on the roster for Matt Wallner, who played roughly half a season and was more productive (2.2 bWAR) than Rosario has been in any season since 2018, and more productive in half a season that Rosario has been in the last 3 combined seasons.

So yes, there's been adequate return: we have more than replaced Rosario's production. What we haven't gotten yet is superior performance from Larnach or Kirilloff, but there's still time and if Kirilloff gets healthy it's quite likely that he surpasses Rosario's production next season.

But hey, I would expect Atlanta to decline the club option on Eddie for 2024, so he'll be available.

Also - I have a few friends who are Atlanta fans.  They groaned each time in the playoffs that Rosario was batting and were upset at the manager at times for not having a pinch hitter option when Rosario was up.

I don't understand the love for Rosario by certain Twins fans.  I get it if you are a fan of a player.  Lew Ford was fun to cheer for too. But the front office was right to move on from him.  (Like Jmlease1 says above.)

[sun]

On 10/19/2023 at 9:57 PM, Mike Sixel said:

What's the point of this? It's done. In the past. 

"Just the facts ma'am. " - Sgt. Joe Friday.

[sun]

14 hours ago, TwinsAce said:

Also - I have a few friends who are Atlanta fans.  They groaned each time in the playoffs that Rosario was batting and were upset at the manager at times for not having a pinch hitter option when Rosario was up.

I don't understand the love for Rosario by certain Twins fans.  I get it if you are a fan of a player.  Lew Ford was fun to cheer for too. But the front office was right to move on from him.  (Like Jmlease1 says above.)

I guess you didn't read that the comment referred to Rosario when he was with the Twins. His RBI's carried the team during the Bomba season. You can deny it but can't ever take that away from him just because you don't like him. It was just an analogy, get over it.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, sun said:

I guess you didn't read that the comment referred to Rosario when he was with the Twins. His RBI's carried the team during the Bomba season. You can deny it but can't ever take that away from him just because you don't like him. It was just an analogy, get over it.

This has nothing to do with 1B.  You appear to be looking for a reason to complain.  Talk about selective memory and ignoring the facts.  He has sucked since leaving.  He has provided replacement level value.  Yet, you are bitching he is gone.  It would be hard to spend the money less effectively.  You might also want to look at Fangraphs data for the 2019 team.  Rosario was 11th on the team among position players in WAR.  He was far from "carrying the team".  His wRC+ was 104.  Just the facts as you like to put it.  We may not have come up with a good replacement but that has absolutely nothing to do with the relative merit of letting him go.  It was a great decision.  

 

[jmlease1]

9 hours ago, sun said:

I guess you didn't read that the comment referred to Rosario when he was with the Twins. His RBI's carried the team during the Bomba season. You can deny it but can't ever take that away from him just because you don't like him. It was just an analogy, get over it.

They really didn't. He was maybe the 7th best regular on that team. It has nothing to do with liking him or not (I actually liked Eddie quite a bit when he was a Twin). And regardless: he wouldn't be playing 1B for the Twins even if he was somehow still here, so throwing his name around in a discussion of who fills in at 1B if Kirilloff's injury pushes his recovery into next season is just weird. Twins 100% made the right call in declining to offer him arbitration, and it's worked out just fine for them. 

[Heiny]

I would like to see them give Larnach a first basemans glove and give him a try as Kirriloffs backup.  I was always high on Larnach but he has proven to be a disappointment to this point.  I'd like to see him get one more shot as a backup 1B and COF.  If not he should still have some trade value.  I also wish he would show a little more fire.  

[sun]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This has nothing to do with 1B.  You appear to be looking for a reason to complain.  Talk about selective memory and ignoring the facts.  He has sucked since leaving.  He has provided replacement level value.  Yet, you are bitching he is gone.  It would be hard to spend the money less effectively.  You might also want to look at Fangraphs data for the 2019 team.  Rosario was 11th on the team among position players in WAR.  He was far from "carrying the team".  His wRC+ was 104.  Just the facts as you like to put it.  We may not have come up with a good replacement but that has absolutely nothing to do with the relative merit of letting him go.  It was a great decision.  

 

Yes it did. what I originally posted was that the Severino might be another Rosario because Severino can olay 1B & has powr. You're making a mountain out of a molehill. 

 

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

They really didn't. He was maybe the 7th best regular on that team. It has nothing to do with liking him or not (I actually liked Eddie quite a bit when he was a Twin). And regardless: he wouldn't be playing 1B for the Twins even if he was somehow still here, so throwing his name around in a discussion of who fills in at 1B if Kirilloff's injury pushes his recovery into next season is just weird. Twins 100% made the right call in declining to offer him arbitration, and it's worked out just fine for them. 

My comment had to do with Severino playing 1B, not Rosario. I said the Twins needed power & a HR threat that Severino can supply, especially considering that we need to replace Gallo's HR's. Rosario supplied power & RBI's during his prime with the Twins as I referenced due to criticism just for mentioning Rosario's name. 

[stringer bell]

I guess my thought is that if Kirilloff is very likely back and fully healed by June 1st, I'd plan to cover first base internally. Plan A would be a platoon of Julien and Miranda. If there is uncertainty that AK will return healthy, then maybe a more permanent plan should be in the works. Severino is intriguing, although the Ks are concerning.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I guess my thought is that if Kirilloff is very likely back and fully healed by June 1st, I'd plan to cover first base internally. Plan A would be a platoon of Julien and Miranda. If there is uncertainty that AK will return healthy, then maybe a more permanent plan should be in the works. Severino is intriguing, although the Ks are concerning.

This. 

[dxpavelka]

On 10/18/2023 at 8:43 PM, Mike Sixel said:

What does this serve at all at this point? How is it relevant to this thread? Move on. Please. Or start a new thread where you post it over and over. 

Serves as an annual reminder that some moves don't work out.  Convince me that we've ever adequately replaced Rosario.  Did I mention he's a Gold Glove finalist this year?

[dxpavelka]

On 10/18/2023 at 10:35 PM, arby58 said:

In 2022, Rosario's OPS was .587. This year he 'improved' to .755. If this is what you aspire, it isn't much.

That bad and yet we've never adequately replaced him in LF.  AND he's a Gold Glove finalist this year.  AND he's the type of guy who probably would have come up big in big moments against Houston.  Lord knows not enough other guys did. 

[dxpavelka]

On 10/19/2023 at 9:20 AM, jmlease1 said:

Not that Eddie Rosario plays 1B, or anything, but since leaving the Twins he's accumulated 0.6 bWAR over three seasons while making $26M.

While Larnach hasn't managed to solidify his place in MLB, he's still generated 2.0 bWAR in MLB for the Twins over the same time period, while making less than 1/10th of the salary and playing 40% less. Kirilloff's injuries have really held him back from being a significant contributor, but he's been roughly as valuable as Eddie Rosario (Kirilloff had 0.7 bWAR) over this same 3-year stretch, while making the same kind of money as Larnach.

So let's review: the Twins got 4 times more value out of Larnach and Kirilloff over the last 3 years (combined they played roughly the same number of games as Rosario) while saving $20M in payroll (to date). And now we have room on the roster for Matt Wallner, who played roughly half a season and was more productive (2.2 bWAR) than Rosario has been in any season since 2018, and more productive in half a season that Rosario has been in the last 3 combined seasons.

So yes, there's been adequate return: we have more than replaced Rosario's production. What we haven't gotten yet is superior performance from Larnach or Kirilloff, but there's still time and if Kirilloff gets healthy it's quite likely that he surpasses Rosario's production next season.

But hey, I would expect Atlanta to decline the club option on Eddie for 2024, so he'll be available.

And yet Larnach spent most of the year in St. Paul, Kirilloff ended up hurt (shocking) when the moment got big and Matt Wallner's biggest achievement was playing Gallo out of the lineup but there's a real good chance that he himself strikes his way out of the league in three years too. 

[jmlease1]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

That bad and yet we've never adequately replaced him in LF.  AND he's a Gold Glove finalist this year.  AND he's the type of guy who probably would have come up big in big moments against Houston.  Lord knows not enough other guys did. 

I have no idea how he got a nod as a Gold Glove finalist; he hasn't been a quality defender in 5 years, including this one. And Rosario was 2-12 in this year's playoffs (both of which were in a loss), so let's calm down about him coming up in big moments.

Twins have adequately replaced him in LF, with Matt Wallner, and produced more value before that with Larnach and Kirilloff. The only way to say they haven't is to pretend that 2018 Eddie Rosario was the same guy in 2019 and 2020...and he wasn't. 

The reason people like me keep banging back every time someone brings up Rosario like this is we're tired of the fiction. He was a pretty good player with the Twins who had some solid seasons in his prime, and as he slowed down and didn't improve his patience at the plate became less reliable and valuable overall, which happened to coincide with him becoming more expensive. That's not hating on Rosario, that's just fact.

I really like the possibilities of Miranda plus Julien filling in if Kirilloff isn't ready to go. It means Severino doesn't get pushed before he's ready, and keeps a depth piece in place, but also gives another opportunity to a player whose struggles last season were clearly tied to injury. Miranda has shown flashes of real ability and as a RH-bat can help protect some of our LH hitters. A little positional flexibility for Julien will help keep his bat in the lineup as well.

[Mike Sixel]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Serves as an annual reminder that some moves don't work out.  Convince me that we've ever adequately replaced Rosario.  Did I mention he's a Gold Glove finalist this year?

Which has nothing to do with first base. Nothing.

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I have no idea how he got a nod as a Gold Glove finalist; he hasn't been a quality defender in 5 years, including this one. And Rosario was 2-12 in this year's playoffs (both of which were in a loss), so let's calm down about him coming up in big moments.

Twins have adequately replaced him in LF, with Matt Wallner, and produced more value before that with Larnach and Kirilloff. The only way to say they haven't is to pretend that 2018 Eddie Rosario was the same guy in 2019 and 2020...and he wasn't. 

The reason people like me keep banging back every time someone brings up Rosario like this is we're tired of the fiction. He was a pretty good player with the Twins who had some solid seasons in his prime, and as he slowed down and didn't improve his patience at the plate became less reliable and valuable overall, which happened to coincide with him becoming more expensive. That's not hating on Rosario, that's just fact.

I really like the possibilities of Miranda plus Julien filling in if Kirilloff isn't ready to go. It means Severino doesn't get pushed before he's ready, and keeps a depth piece in place, but also gives another opportunity to a player whose struggles last season were clearly tied to injury. Miranda has shown flashes of real ability and as a RH-bat can help protect some of our LH hitters. A little positional flexibility for Julien will help keep his bat in the lineup as well.

Wallner is Gallo lite and if we're lucky he'll take five years to strike himself out of the league instead of three.  Miranda showed so much this year that he earned a one ticket east across the river.  Same with Larnach.  Julien MIGHT be the only hope you've named but he's a LONG way from not being a defensive liability and might never get there.  Good luck with all of that.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which has nothing to do with first base. Nothing.

Gallo, Kirilloff & Farmer all played games at both 1B and LF so yeah, one has to do with the other.

 

[Fatbat]

On 10/19/2023 at 8:43 AM, MplsFan said:

The offense needs an upgrade and 1st seems like one of the few spots you could try to accomplish this.  Go external and get a veteran bat.

Yeah, we just need to hold the next CES back in the minors and possibly trade him away so we can  overpay the next Joey Gallo rehab project. Puke. 

[Mike Sixel]

19 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Wallner is Gallo lite and if we're lucky he'll take five years to strike himself out of the league instead of three.  Miranda showed so much this year that he earned a one ticket east across the river.  Same with Larnach.  Julien MIGHT be the only hope you've named but he's a LONG way from not being a defensive liability and might never get there.  Good luck with all of that.

Wallner put up 1.5 fWAR in 44 games in left field. So, no, not even close. Not even a little close. 

[dxpavelka]

On 10/23/2023 at 11:21 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Wallner put up 1.5 fWAR in 44 games in left field. So, no, not even close. Not even a little close. 

Yup.  And he struck out 80 times in 250 PAs.  Get him 550 and he's got a legit shot at Sano's team strikeout record. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, dxpavelka said:

Yup.  And he struck out 80 times in 250 PAs.  Get him 550 and he's got a legit shot at Sano's team strikeout record. 

So what? He walks, hits for power.....I guess he may never get better, and they should dfa him though

[dxpavelka]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So what? He walks, hits for power.....I guess he may never get better, and they should dfa him though

Sano walked and hit for power..