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TwinsAce

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Everything posted by TwinsAce

  1. That's it, might as well sign him as our SS. https://metsmerizedonline.com/2021/11/report-japanese-star-outfielder-seiya-suzuki-will-be-posted.html/
  2. Personally, I would love it. Looks like a lot of places are expecting between 3-5 years and $7-$11 million per year? I think I'd take the chances on him at even $10 million. (Plus fee?) It definitely would make me feel more comfortable trading Larnach or CF in a package for pitching and/or Kepler in the future. The thought of Buxton, Suzuki, and Kepler/Martin/Lewis in the OF at some point in the next year would be quite fun. * Note to Twins management. This plan would require $$ and paying Buxton. Proceed with caution.
  3. Reminds me of the luxury tax, but instead of $$ related, it would be record related. Maybe they can even hold onto the pick, but get less bonus pool to work with? If a team has less than 90 losses, it resets the penalties?
  4. Is there an easy way to see Juan Minaya's stats on first inning vs. second inning? (Or <25 pitches and >25 pitches?) I felt like there were quite a few games where he was asked to provide 2-3 innings since the rest of the bullpen was struggling or worn out. And quite a few times he would cruise through the first 4-6 batters before struggling after 30 pitches.
  5. I like the idea of trying to sign one of Mark Canha (2.6 fWAR) or Michael Conforto (0.8 fWAR) if we trade Kepler. I liked the hitting progress Celestino showed in AAA enough I would probably make him be the first call up if any OF struggles, including LF and Larnach. I also think Martin might be close that IF the Twins were winning games, it could be a "break glass in case of emergency" situation for LF. IIRC, one of his weaknesses is his arm, which makes LF probable.
  6. I agree with these three. I think Cole Sands and Louie Varland stick out as other pitchers that could be top 10 by the end of the year if things go well. (Or Vallimont if somehow he controls his walks.) On the hitting side, Edouard Julien and Misael Urbina are two other names that could move up potentially IMO. However, three of the four I mentioned already did pretty well this year, not unlike Steer. In that sense, Strotman, Sabato, and Urbina are my picks for prospects who struggled this year but could be top 10. On the flip side, based on the mid-season Twins Daily ranks, I only see Keoni Cavaco as likely to drop out of the top 10 in the near future. And my guess is he already is out of the top 10 for end of season ranks for most people (like Tom's Oct 20th update.) This definitely seems promising for the quality of top prospects on the way.
  7. It wasn't until the outfield assist bullet point that I realized it was Friday and who wrote the article. Great job as always.
  8. Every year, it amazes me that the MLB playoffs aren't available via either MLB TV or via "free tv". I can't imagine how many people would follow baseball more if they could actually watch the playoffs. One downside to baseball is often the long season. But if fans could watch the playoffs, when the teams are elite and the games are drama filled and action packed, you would have to think MLB would have a growing audience. (Not an aging one.) Hey, at least the WS is available. If they do the streaming service, I think they should also add in the option of watching "all playoff games". Or better yet, don't even charge extra for those and add them to the in-network streaming and also MLB TV streaming.
  9. Agree with USAFChief in that a QO doesn't matter if the Twins are able to sign a top pitcher or top SS (for more than a 1 year deal.) Also, not really sure why people are down on Story for defense (or Correa/Baez). If I'm reading the various sites correctly, OAA is the only defensive stat that was down on Story. It also seemed to be related to LHB and moving to his left, so I'm curious if shifting or lack of shifting hurt him this year. I think it could based on the picture below? But again, defensive stats are still not perfect. To me, I'd be pushing Story's camp to find out if he is interested in the Twins and what they are looking for in $$ and years. If he's interested in a shorter prove-it deal of 1-3 years, I'd be all over that. At worse, he provides offense at a much higher level than Simmons and defense at a similar or slightly worse level. At best, he figures out non-Coors field hitting at an All-star level and provides gold glove defense. I would probably only worry about him if they are looking for $30+ million a year or 5+ years. Which...there is still probably a 50/50 chance he gets one or both of those this offseason. One potential bonus of signing a top SS if that you could feel better about including a SS prospect in a trade for a pitcher. Maybe we could trade Jermaine Palacios for Odorizzi?
  10. 1. I agree with this and raise you one. Buxton is signed to long-term contract AND stays healthy for at least 120+ games. 2. I agree that we would need Ryan (or another prospect) to succeed at a #3 level or higher next year. 3. Another plausible option is we sign Thor and he stays healthy and is a #2 pitcher (vs. signs with someone else or signs here and breaks down, etc.) 4. We need one of Martin, Lewis, Miranda, or Larnach to breakthrough. Someone to push through and become a top 5-6 hitter in our lineup.
  11. This is the bullpen I am expecting. I love what I have seen from Minaya. There have been a few outings where he has come back out a second (or third) inning and his effectiveness has gone down, but not too often. The 7th spot is the biggest question in my mind. Is that one of those 3? Is it someone else from Brandon or Rosterman's note above? Or do they sign another solid FA and push those players to minor league/spring training deals.
  12. He's been healthy this year. I see the main points for a trade being health, age (which impacts speed/defense and health), and contract. But arguably, the contract isn't scary if you aren't worried about health or age. I'll be happy if he is here next year since I enjoy watching him play. I'll be okay if they pay some of the salary and get good prospects back. (Not my preference unless those are top prospects, which I doubt.) I'll be happy if they trade his full salary and then sign a top SS. (But not Baez and not 100% sold on Story, so doubtful the Twins land Seager or Correa.) My guess is nothing happens.
  13. I don't like the idea of trading for a player who can't play SS well. I like the idea of Swanson, but that's really only an option if Atlanta signs a top SS... What about Miguel Rojas? 32, one year vesting option (which will vest in the next game or two), 3 WAR this year with 102 wRC+, 8.6 UZR/150 and 5 DRS in 2021. Although after looking further, it appears he wants to finish his playing career with the Marlins. Defense might be declining too. I'm guessing Nicky Lopez would be a bit far fetched. Kevin Newman? His offense stinks this year, but defense looks solid this year? Also, since July 24th, he has looked a lot better with 95 wRC+ and 736 OPS. (Lateral movement has been positive this year vs. negative previous years.) Nick Ahmed? He's had a down offensive year, but has typically been slightly below average at offense and solid defense. It seems like he has similar advanced offensive stats except that his barrel and hard hit % is down, I think my main takeaway after looking at shortstops around the league is there are either the stars (either signed or FAs) or the dart throws with the occasional younger SS that a team is hopeful for.
  14. However, if you look at baseball reference, it does appear 7 Infield hits in 2020 and 9 in 2021. I guess you can choose to use that stat if you want. I personally think it ignores all of the growth we've seen in Buxton now for more than a year. Also, it ignores the fact that players like Nelson Cruz also get infield hits (second snip), so it's unlikely Buxton will lose that aspect of his game anytime soon.
  15. I'm not really an expert on some of the advanced stats, but I believe you are citing the IFH% stat of 25.7%? Based on the fangraphs pop-up explanation, it appears that is the % of hits on infield ground balls (GB). So in other words, 25.7% of 36.5%, or 9.38% of his total BIP (balls in play.) And that's only BIP, not total ABs and counting walks or strikeouts. I think this might be the wrong hill to die on. While you are at fangraphs though, make sure to check out the Hard hit %, the barrels %, wRC+ and other stats. Pretty exciting if you ask me. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong though.
  16. Cardinals and Brewers had a similar wild pitch in the top of the 10th. The Cardinals pitcher bounced it, but Molina wasn't able to stop it. Not quite the same since Colome bounced it sooner and the Cardinals pitcher bounced it closer to the plate but farther in. But in some ways, it shows that even the veterans or best catchers can't stop all wild pitches, even ones that are close to the plate.
  17. I don't think I'd worry about the age too much for Ryan. Most people are saying to ignore age right now due to last year's lost season. I'd say he is on track and potentially ahead of schedule for a 2018 7th round draft pick. This is only his second season and he played for the Olympics. I agree though that it'd be fun to see him soon at the MLB level. Probably once the Twins feel he has adapted to the organization?
  18. I was also amazed that those 10 strikeouts came in the first 5 innings and roughly 69 pitches. Not too many get that many strikeouts without being closer to 90+ pitches.
  19. Wow...1st and 2nd prospects (MLB ready) and two mid-range prospects. I feel like Jose might have had a chance at Gray and a mid-range prospect.
  20. Winder, Ober, Miranda, Steer, Javier, and possibly Moran and Palacios seem like the biggest movers so far. Similar to SteelDodo and Doc, would you have any of those in the next few rankings? (Other than Winder and Miranda who made the top 15?) This also highlights how many injuries have hit the top 10 (especially pitchers), but at least those players still have the high upside. And it highlights some of the recent graduations and future graduation for Larnach.
  21. With Barnes not being on the 40 man roster, do you anticipate him being called up if/when Pineda/Happ/Shoemaker are traded/released?
  22. Favorite former Twin: Justin Morneau Favorite current Twin(s): Dozier, Arcia, Colabello, Gibson, and Perkins. Favorite minor leaguers: Buxton, Meyer, Tonkin, Polanco, Kepler, Berrios, & Rosario. Favorite pizza: Alfredo (white) sauce with chicken and jalapenos!! Yummy!
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