TwinsAce

You mention this slightly in the OP as well as others in the comments, but Correa in the playoffs was everything we ever asked for. Without Correa, I don't think the Twins would have won a playoff series this year. It might not be captured in WAR values, but in almost a Mastercard slogan in reverse, Correa's contract was priceless because of this. All of the youth and pre-arb / arbitration contracts will be fun to see impact the team over the next few years. There will probably be a few mid-range contract extensions (similar to Kepler or Polanco) to help keep costs standard and there will probably be a few that they end up trading or not signing further because of the cost. At this point though, I'm not too worried about long-term budget issues for the Twins.

For #4, are you saying that you would trade Festa, Rodriguez, Polanco, and Gordon for Devin Williams? I get Devin is good, but this seems like a strong overpay. Maybe you meant Polanco + someone? If Festa + Rodriguez are going in a deal for someone, it would be a top pitcher like Mitch Keller.

I decided to look up what Fangraphs said for ETAs on the same players. (Some of them were updated in June, so not as recent.) The only one that stuck out was Tanner Schobel where they had a 2 year difference. Otherwise, most were the same or similar with the draft picks from this year typically being 1 year after the ETAs by Cody. (Plus Martin did not make it to MLB level this year.) Either way, I'm excited about these players. I'm also hopeful (similar to @chpettit19) that Jenkins pushes up this timeline by a year. The screenshot below again emphasizes how many top prospects made it to MLB this year too. Such a fun year!

I think you are right about the cost, although I wish it was cheaper with a lot of incentives. If it happens, I guess we know where Frankie is. 🙂

In my third edition (after warming up to the idea of Gurriel), I have Polanco traded (along with prospects) for a pitcher. The three I have listed all make $5 million and less from what I can tell. If it wasn't a trade, I would look at signing a pitcher for $15-$20 million. However, if the budget is $135 million, this would require a trade of Kepler. Farmer is also gone due to the price tag. My OF is feeling pretty great right now Kiermaier and Gurriel signed plus Castro/Martin helping cover as needed while also helping cover the IF. (Martin could also end up Miranda, Severino, etc. but probably end up being a pre-arbitration player.) I would push to have Julien and Gurriel ready at 1B as needed as well, but Severino would be a fallback option for depth. Similar to other blueprints I've done, the bullpen seems inevitable to end up with a smaller signing in the $2-5 million range (Pagan?), 1-2 from the younger batch (Sands/Moran/Funderburk) and potentially 1 minor league deal. While I would love a top pitcher in the $20-$25 million range, this was my version to focus on the bats a little more with Gurriel / Kiermaier and just a trade for SP. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Kevin Kiermaier ($10.5M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Lourdes Gurriel Jr (1B / LF / DH) ($15.00M) Utility: Austin Martin ($.77M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Trade - Edward Cabrera?? Mitch Keller?? Freddy Peralta?? ($5.00M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: XYZ Pitcher - Pagan ($3.00M) RP: Sands / Moran / Funderburk ($0.77M) RP: Minor League Deal ($1.00M) Payroll is 1.84% under budget

What's the plan with Varland, Paddack, and Cabrera? I'm all for trading for Cabrera, but wouldn't it be for the intention of starting him? Varland also sticks out as the most likely to go to the bullpen IMO, but curious what your thoughts are. Are you hoping for more piggy back type roles for 1-2? Of note, your 2nd baseman says Polanco, but is Julien based on the trade and $$. 🙂

I know the new budget might make this a little trickier, but I think this still applies. I think they ideally would focus in one 2-3 players to distribute most of the remaining budget to with the remaining spots focusing on depth / minor league type deals. And then what is more likely is that we see 1-2 of the Farmer, Polanco, Kepler trio traded to help offset.

If our new budget is $125 million - $140 million, I think this shows we "could" keep both Polanco and Kepler next year and still sign a CF/OF for $10-$12 million, have money for various bullpen and bench guys with $1-3 million each, and trade (or sign) a SP for $10 million. I haven't looked enough at trade options for pitchers, but the salaries could run from $3 million to $15 million (or $25 million for Glasnow, which seems like a stretch now.) The main subtraction here is Farmer, but if you went for a different CF option (Taylor?) at closer to $6-$9 million, you could keep Farmer instead of the Solano slot. I think this would come down to how much the Twins want to push Lee to MLB level (or have Lewis backup SS with other 3B options like Miranda.) CF comes down to how ready they are for Martin. The biggest takeaway for me is that the Twins still have pretty good flexibility and could surprise with a major signing. However, the larger the signing, the more they might end up trading Farmer, Polanco, and/or Kepler. (Kepler seems the least likely to be traded IMO.) And matching what they have said so far, it seems likely they trade for pitching to help fill out some of the depth. And of course, expect minor league deals to surprise and push like Stewart or Castro. (Or late deals like Solano.) C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Solano type guy ($3.00M) Utility: Kevin Kiermaier ($12.00M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Trade - Edward Cabrera?? Mitch Keller?? Freddy Peralta?? Maeda signing? ($10.00M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala / Minor League Deal ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Minor League Deal (Cole Sands?) ($1.00M) RP: XYZ Pitcher - Pagan? ($3.00M) RP: Kody Funderburk / Moran ($0.77M) Payroll is 8.84% under budget

For someone like Gray, who has talked about retirement, I could see a team getting fancy with an extra year tacked on to help spread out the money. It just sounds like 3 years and $20 million / year might be the base, so would it need to be 5 years and $85-90 million? Either way, this is a fun and bold plan that goes after 2 top pitchers.

2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) Of note - you'd actually end up over $10 million under the budget since Julien's number was still Polanco's number. :)

Who are you hoping for back from Polanco?

Right - I also see one year where he is pitching and then injured and another where he is building back from injury. That doesn't mean he won't continue with a FIP close to 5, but I think he has more in his tank.

It is possible and probable they end up trading or signing more guys for next year. They seem to end up signing 2 SPs when there is only 1 spot, but this seems more like a minor league deal this year vs. starting roster. This is also excluding the usual 4-10 minor league deal signees that at least 1-3 end up pushing the roster in spring training due to injuries or performance. Bullpen is the area I can see have 2-3 new guys, but I doubt any of them are big signings.

Yes, better than the current Dallas. Dallas hasn't had WAR over 2 or ERA+ over 100 since 2020 and only had 2020 (and maybe 2015) to compare to what Ryu did in 2018-2020. Ryu seems like a 2-3 WAR pitcher at this point with an ERA+ of 100-10+, but has shown the potential for more. The downside is that he probably is closer to 5 innings than 6+. However, this isn't that far off from Sonny Gray.

I think this ends up at about $160 million ($159.50??), so slightly less than 6% overbudget. If it wasn't for the Twins TV contract issue, I would think one could push ownership to this level. Curious to see what happens though.