Road trip

Seems a bit of an odd comp. Mendez strikes out around 20% in the pitching-poor AAA. Arraez for his career strikes out at just under 6% in a dominant pitching era MLB. There just aren't many real comps in today's game for what Arraez does. Mendez is gonna have to hit for more power than Arraez because he will almost certainly strike out far more. For Mendez I think you hope for a better version of Larnach, and I'm skeptical that he will get there. He certainly won't be there this year.

Sabato to KBO makes a lot of sense, although it is possible some other MLB org will give him a shot. I'm skeptical he will get a chance with the Twins. Wallner probably will be getting his release this offseason. He's torn up AAA again, but it seems pretty obvious the Twins org won't be giving him another chance based on Roden and Jackson being on the roster all summer. Likely they will want the 40-man spot for someone else. I do expect to see him in the majors somewhere else though next year. If a different coaching staff can fix the hole in his swing perhaps he could return to 2023-24 production which would make a valuable DH.

You can never have too much starting pitching depth. If a reasonable salary agreement can be achieved I suspect Ober may be back next year. I trust nobody on this staff to remain healthy in 2027. Larnach or Bell, choose one for next year's DH. Or arguably less than one if financial resources need to go elsewhere. DH is the easiest spot to fill on the roster, and Larnach is a liability in the outfield who will only get slower as time passes.

There has been nothing remotely encouraging about recent Twins play.... ..except that we are only a half game out from the last playoff spot. What a weird year.

My takeaway a decade or more ago was essentially that "3 true outcomes" hitters are a good thing. Outs were all equal, be they strikeouts or other outs. In fact, because a small percentage of groundouts became double-plays, you actually wanted guys that lifted the ball, worked deep counts, hopefully hit a lot of HR's and drew walks, and were willing to pay the cost of also striking out a lot and tolerating relatively low batting averages so long as OBP/OPS was solid. It was a core Billy Beane/Moneyball ethos. Power and walks were desired, so strikeouts were tolerated so long as the power was there. The league has moved away from this mindset, and the board with it to a large degree. It was a philosophy I embraced as well at one time, but the game has evolved as it always does. Miguel Sano's skill set was highly desired a decade ago despite clear holes in his game. Today...guys who hit for power but strike out a lot and can't field aren't desired (see: Wallner), unless they are Kyle Schwarber-level performers.

I don't really disagree with anything you wrote, but I'm amused that over the past decade the board has gone from "strikeouts don't matter", to a significant percentage of people looking at strikeout rates first to judge players. It isn't wrong, just noting the change in public perception. And btw, for the strikeout haters, do NOT look at Quentin Young's strikeout rates. Your eyes will bleed.

I think 0% next year chance on Tait, who isn't hitting all that well at A ball this year and remains unrefined on defense. Lackey is a year older and his development is ahead of Tait in terms of defensive skills and possibly will be on offense as well, although adjusting to a wood bat is tough for some. I expect to see Lackey pass Tait up on the organizational ladder in the next year or two.

One utility infielder/outfielder for the bench is a good and necessary thing. Two could be useful. Three is an overabundance. The Twins have at different times rostered, um... 8? (Lee, Keaschall, Kreidler, Lewis, Clemons, Martin, Gray, and I'll even throw in Caratini due to all the time at 1B). Way too many. Perhaps two of them are above average fielders.

It's so hard to identify the right guys, young or old. You've rightly pointed to some success stories for vets (although I would debate the re-signing of Farmer). In recent years there have also been some very unfortunate signings of certified formerly good veteran players. Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Andrelton Simmons, Joey Gallo, Christian Vazquez on a multi-year, and more failed bullpen guys than I can remember. Every team has some successes and some failures of this type. The problem for the Twins is that they seem to fall for the sunk cost fallacy with the vets. Because they have invested money, they are gonna make the Manuel Margots of the world work, dammit, even when it becomes obvious to casual observers that the skills have degraded. Money is tight for the Twins, and I wonder if the front office wouldn't be more willing to move on from underperforming vets if they hadn't had to beg the ownership for the funds to sign some of these guys who don't work out?

Gomez doesn't necessarily have to regress. I present as exhibit A, Eddie Guardado and his special closing voodoo: 2002: ERA 2.93 vs FIP 3.46 2003: 2.89 vs 3.23 2004: 2.78 vs 4.35 2005: 2.72 vs 3.73 2006: 3.89 vs 5.69 He may have induced a few hear failures, but Eddie somehow got it done year after year. Sample sizes are so small with closers that I'm not entirely confident rate stats can be applied in the same way that we do for starters. I haven't done the research, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are other closers out there with a similar track record to Everyday Eddie.

Look, I know EmRod is hurt too much, and strikes out too much, but I wonder if this is causing many to overlook his many strengths. Elite power, speed, good defense, and a good eye that leads to many walks. He's still a Top100 prospect in MLB. He's ranked #31 by Keith Law, #52 in MLB pipeline, and in the 50s by Baseball Prospectus. Yes, Jenkins is rated higher and probably has a higher floor, but it would be unprecedented to let a Top100 prospect like EmRod go for nothing without giving him a trial run, be it this year or next April.

The first called will be: "Whoever isn't hurt when the Twins need an outfielder". I'm kidding. Mostly. I hope.

OPS is up 129 points in one game...which is possible because it was so low. Happy for him.

Bullpen is reasonably well-rested. I think the leash could be pretty short for Zebby here.

Performance? Emma - .899 OPS Ross - .856 Mendez - .820 GG - .725 And Emma is by far the fastest and a better outfielder than GG or Mendez. Honestly those last two shouldn't even be in the discussion for 2026. They are barely handling AAA. Jenkins is a special case. Bring him when deemed ready, be that today or in 2027.